drifting along in the 60-70 slot one day we will leave and quite dramactically.
Yeah we’re building a real acceptance that > $65,000 is normal. Soon there will be a real lack of willing sellers at these prices and the effect of the halving is going to kick in. The next leg up will take us into the $85,000 range I think.
Hopefully we see over $100,000 this year. That will set us up nicely for the peak bull run in 2025. I really need to devise a sell plan for this cycle soon. I’m planning to sell 25% again (like the last cycle peak bull zone in 2021).
Personally, I think that it is better to have a somewhat tentative plan in advance so that you sell on the way up rather than selling on the way down.. yet, I also know that sometimes with the varying personal tradeoffs in regards to how to do accomplish it, it can be easier said than done... . even though I surely buy into the raking approach, but
I have been too whimpy so far to even attempt anything close to 25%, which might not be a bad idea.. but I am not unhappy with what I have been doing either.. Maybe I could consider some kind of a compromise.. like 12.5%? So yeah, maybe I am in a similar boat as you, even though I don't really feel any burning need to sell more than I already do in my already existing system.[...]
See bolded part, so you lost more bitcoin by various exchange 'hacks' than you net sold over the years?
You seem to be making slightly different points, but surely there is nothing completely unfair about proclaiming that keeping a certain amount on exchanges is going to increase likelihoods of losing coins through hacks and/or other potential problems with my system of selling on the way up in incremental ways and buying back if the BTC price happens to drop.
It is not easy to measure alternative scenarios, since part of my way of getting to a point of feeling comfortable with overallocating into bitcoin was based on my system in which I could sell on the way up and still feel accepting of it.. so for example, if my BTC allocation ended up at around 13.5% of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio in late 2015, even though I got hacked from more than 25% of my BTC holdings in early 2017, the BTC price went up so much in early 2015, that the "on paper" loss in terms of dollar value barely showed up as one month's loss, and yeah, sure the value of the BTC holdings could have had been way further up, but still the whole matter ended up working up o.k.. .and really hard to say I should have done x, y and/or z better, even though my hacking incident (which was largely a sim swap) did teach me a few lessons regarding some of the security measures that I was taking, including where and how I was holding my coins, so for example instead of having high percentages of my BTC holdings on various exchanges and third parties (including that I am pretty sure that at the time, I had erroneously presumed that having 10 different locations was giving me a decent amount of security by having the coins spread out like that.. so yeah.. lessons were learned.. but still I doubt that completely removing oneself from attempts to interact and learn about various bitcoin systems would have had been the answer for me, if that is what you are suggesting)
Another thing regarding the purposeful management of your BTC holdings in such a way to shave off 25% or more of them all at once, versus making some errors in which the 25% or more are taken from you, seem to be related but still a bit different issues.
I have frequently made the point that most likely I would not have been able to come even close to as staunch of a bitcoin holder if I had not created systems of shaving BTC profits on the way up (also known as raking strategies), so it seems a bit misplaced to imply (or even subtly argue, if that is what you might be doing?) that a preferred and better practice for someone like me should have had been to completely keep my BTC in cold storage rather than the various interactive practices that I have employed and advocated over the years.
Surely I will acknowledge that many of us might not even realize how much risk (and the kinds of risks) we are taking by employing various third party services, and so yeah, I had ended up cutting down quite a bit over they years in terms of how much coin I am keeping with third parties, and probably prior to early 2017 I had more than 50% of my BTC being held through various third parties without realizing how vulnerable they were.. and maybe even partly due to my not looking into something like paper wallets or other ways to privately hold BTC, even though the Trezor and some other hardware wallets were already available at that time.. and some even question the security of some of these hardware wallets in terms of their claims to safely cold-storing bitcoin... so sometimes some of us might not completely disclose how we are holding our coins, either... ..
but let me say that by late 2017, I had figure out a few things, so then my exposure on various 3rd party services had gone down to around 20% of the value of my overall BTC holdings, and probably by 2020-ish it was around 12% and probably by early 2022 it was around 8-9%, and in recent times, it probably mostly fluctuates between 3-5% of the size of my total bitcoin holdings, and some of that relates to the amounts of dollars and/or USDT that also might be there.. .and yeah.. does that money even count and is it subjected to freezing and/or rug pulls and other problems.. yes it is, but if no one used exchanges, then what would happen with BTC and/or price discovery? Maybe I am helping out you scaredy cats who might not even know how to move your BTC or maybe you have no relationships with any exchanges, so yeah, there are taxes too.. but is there enough of a circular economy that you can buy your ranch with BTC or various other hooker, lambos and blow expenses.. .. sure maybe you have those circles set up, but there can be quite a bit of variance in terms of circular economy possibilities from region to region, and I am surely not against those kinds practices, since I also attempt to make sure to support those kinds of possibilities when I see them in terms of traveling, but still there are a lot of places that have hardly shit for abilities to transact in bitcoin and sometimes even difficulties finding folks to hook up with in various local communities in certain regions... so going through some kind of exchange might be a kind of solution that might not be the be all end all or the best.
Each of us still are likely making these kinds of balances, and I am not sure if there is any one right system, even though surely there can be ways in which any of us might tweak what we are doing in order to attempt to account for changes in the space, even some jurisdictions become more open about bitcoin and other jurisdictions become more draconian - and how are we going to know? Some folks source a lot or all of their BTC in KYC free ways, and others might have combinations of KYC and KYC free bitcoin, but then if they are managing their stashes in sloppy way, they may well lose track of which is which, too... and sometimes they might not even realize certain mistakes that they might have had made in terms of their stashes, including choices to use various kinds of mixing services or coin joining services and then surely there can be some forms of transacting that might contribute towards plausible deniability in regards to from who any of us might be wanting to either have privacy and/or security.
Uncountable times
Read supply shock to emerge.
X O for today.Haiku with a riddle.
Where is the Dude going to.
| IATA_code | City | Airport | Country | Comment |
| XBO | Boulsa | Boulsa | BurkinaFaso | I don't think so but just in case: DO NOT GO HERE! |
| XCO | Colac | Colac | Australia | 150km from Melbourne? |
| XKO | Kemano | Kemano | Canada | Better places nearer to you for skiing |
| XLO | LongXuyen | LongXuyen | VietNam | It's pretty effin hot and humid there and no beach |
| XSO | Siocon | Siocon | Philippines | Nice beach but no Cross Fit and excessively hot and humid |
| XTO | Taroom | Taroom | Australia | Let's just say I'm surprised they have an airport |
| XYO | Karlshamn | Karlshamn | Sweden | Not much here for the dude |
Alright, you're going to Australia to buy a huge tract of land for a combination ranch/CrossFit enterprise. Taroom - best guess
Hahahahahaha
I like that presentation, homer.
It is kind of like a process of elimination, yet in the end, even if none of the choices come off as reasonably plausible or acceptable, you ended up having to choose from the least of the worse possibilities.
Poll
