Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

bitcoin is dancing
around an evil number
on the father's day

#Sunday haiku

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

Trumps ended  tax free like kind crypto trading on dec 31st 2017. Crypto crashed 2018 Jan

Under Biden Crypto Hit two all time highs in 2021 and hit a third all time high in 2024

The truth is both choices  suck and either one will likely continue to fuck things up for most of the world.

But to think Trump is good for crypto is not what his record shows.

I feel so lost.. like I am looking around and trying to figure out "who is my mommy?"

Am I even in the right thread?

crypto bypto..

Maybe a new coin?  


bypto?

23 Bitcoin.
Enough for Fuck-You status?
Reconsidering...

A bit of a mind-blow, for sure.


And, yeah there is a bit of a gamble with how solid is that base.. how solid is the 200-WMA versus spot price and even directionally.. gosh, is there cashing out along the way, and is the amount being cashed out greater than the amount that the holdings continues to grow... .

I am having my feelings. that someone with ONLY 23 coins (and nothing else) would have some pretty good odds of being able to sustainably withdraw the value of right around $6,666 per month into perpetuity (at today's prices, which presumptively includes the accounting for the ongoing and likely inevitable debasement of the dollar.. so yeah, we might not be able to measure in terms of exact dollars, yet in terms of what those $6,666 per month buy today as compared with what will be able to be sustainably bought with the monthly withdrawn BTC.. and I am thinking that it will hold.. just as it seems to have had done historically, especially if we attempt a tracing of any historical fuck you status amount..   Try it out (anyone):  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy .. can you see it?  can you see it?

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[OgNasty]

Any guesses on how high we’ll get from the $700,000,000.00 Saylor buy that’s coming early this week? I think we may touch back up to $68K-$69K range, but it feels like there’s a lot of pressure pushing downward right now so maybe Blackrock just shorts that trade into not making any difference on the market price. I’d love to see MicroStrategy trigger a short squeeze, but I don’t think it’s in the cards.

[d_eddie]

Any guesses on how high we’ll get from the $700,000,000.00 Saylor buy that’s coming early this week? I think we may touch back up to $68K-$69K range, but it feels like there’s a lot of pressure pushing downward right now so maybe Blackrock just shorts that trade into not making any difference on the market price. I’d love to see MicroStrategy trigger a short squeeze, but I don’t think it’s in the cards.

Maybe a lump market buy could do that, but I doubt Saylor would do anything like that.

[ChartBuddy]

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[Gachapin]

Any guesses on how high we’ll get from the $700,000,000.00 Saylor buy that’s coming early this week? I think we may touch back up to $68K-$69K range, but it feels like there’s a lot of pressure pushing downward right now so maybe Blackrock just shorts that trade into not making any difference on the market price. I’d love to see MicroStrategy trigger a short squeeze, but I don’t think it’s in the cards.

we surely could go down instead of up with the saylor buy. it's the big players decision...

but if history rhymes we might leave this former ATH area (around 69k) to the upside within the next 3 weeks.
comparing to previous cycles we never stayed longer than 4 months in such an area after breaking the former ATH.

But meh only three data points for comparison, so I wouldn't bet on it... also we should probably take the extreme inflation into account this time, so it's questionable if we even had a new ATH with the 73.7k


but if I had to choose I think we will probably go higher soon. Like 80k-90k in August or September. I think the chart looks good. Creating a new strong base in the 60-69k area

[ChartBuddy]

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[bitmover]

I am having my feelings. that someone with ONLY 23 coins (and nothing else) would have some pretty good odds of being able to sustainably withdraw the value of right around $6,666 per month into perpetuity

The point is that "only 23 btc" is quite a lot of money today! 1.5 million dollars!!!

Anyway, that is amazing that just a few years ago it wasnt too much money,...

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[JayJuanGee]

I am having my feelings. that someone with ONLY 23 coins (and nothing else) would have some pretty good odds of being able to sustainably withdraw the value of right around $6,666 per month into perpetuity

The point is that "only 23 btc" is quite a lot of money today! 1.5 million dollars!!!

Anyway, that is amazing that just a few years ago it wasnt too much money,...

I agree.. but I am also valuing 23 bitcoin (or actually 22.5 BTC) at the 200-WMA, which I contend to allow a 10% withdrawal rate that can go perpetually as long as the sustainable withdrawal rules are followed, which means that the withdrawal rate ends up going to lower than 10% if the BTC spot price is lower than 25% above the 200-WMA in accordance with the sustainable withdrawal strategies used in the tool.. .. and so part of my point is about back testing the ability to withdraw in accordance with the valuation of the 200-WMA. .and seemingly 10% withdrawal rates are achievable.. which means that a valuation of $800k at the 200-WMA.. allows for $80k per year being withdrawn.. .and still some cushion  and still some practicality can be employed if there are concerns about the cushion (or the sustainability of the withdrawal strategy).  .. so yeah, it is quit amazing how the number of BTC required gets lower and lower, and surely I am not suggesting using spot prices to determine withdrawal amounts, even though spot price would allow you to withdraw more and maybe even withdraw some of the months in advance, especially if we might start to get spot prices that are starting to get into the area of 400% higher than the 200-WMA and so far in this particular cycle, we have barely been getting in the 100% to 200% range and right now ONLY with BTC spot prices around 85% higher than the 200-WMA.

I know that to many folks what I am saying kind of sounds like gobbledeegook, since there might be better ways to say it..  in terms of bitcoin allowing way greater withdrawal rates (of something like 10%) as compared with traditional investments that might sometimes struggle with staying sustainable with 4% withdrawal rates..

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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