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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26403081 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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June 18, 2024, 08:04:17 PM

cmon rip it off already and let's go to 60k so we can start the real fun.

However the sideways market might easily go on until fall or winter

I agree about the sideways market. It felt like everyone was new here talking about how the price would rip right after the halving. Not only does it take a year + to hit the high, but this time we also have the mtgox funds to unwind and Wall Street shorting. The market will go up again when mtgox funds are distributed and Blackrock decides they have gotten as many coins from the weak hands as possible. I’m guessing October.

Buy ladder hit at 64.1k  so I wiped out my 64 k ladder I have a 63k ladder in place.

Hope to do some more buys as we head sideways.
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June 18, 2024, 08:32:44 PM

cmon rip it off already and let's go to 60k so we can start the real fun.

However the sideways market might easily go on until fall or winter

I agree about the sideways market. It felt like everyone was new here talking about how the price would rip right after the halving. Not only does it take a year + to hit the high, but this time we also have the mtgox funds to unwind and Wall Street shorting. The market will go up again when mtgox funds are distributed and Blackrock decides they have gotten as many coins from the weak hands as possible. I’m guessing October.


Personally I have doubt about side way until fall or winter..

I can imagine a 'nice' narrative with US election, especially if TRUMP come back, with the usual FOMO.

In that situation, i can potentially imagine the top of the cycle why not few months in advance, like with the timeframe of 2/3 months with the election, so like November 2024 - February 2025.

They will make 'everything is fine' till the election. IF we really get the recession in Q1/Q2 2025, i cannot imagine everything traditionnal / stock market collapsing  and Bitcoin and the industry FOMO. No sense and very low chance that way.

We currently have everything in a  'green light' for BTC. If we cannot go higher with all of that till that time (halving / spot ETFs mostly / white house talking about btc & crypto for the election...) then I have some doubt where we can get MORE good news and fomo than this.. But time will tell anyway.




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June 18, 2024, 09:01:17 PM


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June 18, 2024, 09:42:10 PM

A small game

First one to guess in which James Bond movie the name Satoshi is being mentioned

Just watching it atm and was funny to see…
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June 18, 2024, 09:53:00 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (13), philipma1957 (2), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

A small game

First one to guess in which James Bond movie the name Satoshi is being mentioned

Just watching it atm and was funny to see…

Pierce Brosnan - Tomorrow never dies.

I should watch it (and other Bond movies) again, too...  Cool

EDIT: Roger Moore was my childhood favourite, but in hindsight, Connery was better. Timothy Dalton imo sucked, though. I don't know, but even if they called him "James Bond" (etc) in the movies, Daniel Craig's apperance took the newer JB movies to another level, but at the expense of the original JB flair.
Just my 2...

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June 18, 2024, 10:01:14 PM


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BitcoinBunny
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June 18, 2024, 10:14:19 PM

A small game

First one to guess in which James Bond movie the name Satoshi is being mentioned

Just watching it atm and was funny to see…

Pierce Brosnan - Tomorrow never dies.

I should watch it (and other Bond movies) again, too...  Cool

EDIT: Roger Moore was my childhood favourite, but in hindsight, Connery was better. Timothy Dalton imo sucked, though. I don't know, but even if they called him "James Bond" (etc) in the movies, Daniel Craig's apperance took the newer JB movies to another level, but at the expense of the original JB flair.
Just my 2...



I quite liked Tomorrow Never Dies at the time but I haven't seen it in a while to be fair.
Jonathan Pryce was a great, theatrical bad guy and it had quite a plausible plot I thought (at least the media/news manipulation part).

Some movies, even Bond, don't age well. Roger Moore was also my favourite as I grew up watching many of his Bond movies on repeat on TV.
However, I watched Octopussy recently and it's quite atrocious. Probably the worst Bond from what I can remember.
The whole clown - circus thing just makes it even worse. Probably the worst setting for James Bond, even worse than space.
Incredibly far removed from the usual casinos - night life - hot women etc. So stupid.


I actually didn't mind No Time To Die even whilst the general consensus is pretty negative.
Seemed Daniel Craig had a lot more fun with James Bond towards the end.
His Spectre opening scene is probably the most memorable though.
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June 18, 2024, 10:42:23 PM



What about the holder

From 2013-2021 ish



yeah, yeah, lucky you  Grin, but does it have a "fish flow" or cranberry/blueberry "flow" from the surrounding woods?
Hehe.
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goldkingcoiner
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Today at 01:03:48 AM



What about the holder

From 2013-2021 ish



yeah, yeah, lucky you  Grin, but does it have a "fish flow" or cranberry/blueberry "flow" from the surrounding woods?
Hehe.

Either way, he is living the dream.
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Today at 03:45:37 AM

From the looks of the volume this morning it appears that Saylor may have made his $700,000,000 buy about 45 minutes ago, sending the price about $400 higher before immediately dropping to new lows. Not a good sign at all if true. I was hoping we’d see a $2K move upward with only a slight retrace. Seems the big boys on Wall Street are dead set on causing some pain and creating more sellers.
I think you have a tendency to read too much into largely noise in order to contribute to the hype-train.. .. but hey, whatever, to each their own.

A $700,000,000 buy is market moving and its effects say a lot about what’s going on. Seeing the shorts grow while buying continues is important to understand in order not to panic sell when future buying demand (shorts) is increasing. I follow the 4-year cycle and all this “noise” isn’t something that should be traded, just heard and understood so you can identify the tops and bottoms of the cycle. Ignore it as you please, but then why comment in this thread at all?

No problem.  I said my part already.. and yeah, there is something interesting about a $700 million buy that does not move the market up.. yet at the same time.. many of us are not trading on these kinds of seemingly newsworthy matters, and so each of also find different things as important.. and surely if we were all saying the same things, or emphasizing the same kinds of pieces of information, the thread would hardly be interesting, so no problem if we have a few battles here and there regarding what we deem to be important or not... or worthy of comment or not....

Look like we should have to see more pain in the market before UP.

Whoaza!!!!   You call current prices at $65k-ish and our dip earlier today down to a whopping $64,032 as "pain?"  I am having some troubles really feeling the thing that you are proclaiming to be.

Further, we are not even out of don't wake me up zone.. which you gotta get us in the mid-$50ks-ish for that... even though I will admit that our late April correction down to $56.5k did nearly start to get my attention.. and it almost even woke me up, too.

The slow bleed down makes completly sense to me because this is a bear market.
a bear market because 9 days of decline? cmon don't be ridiculous

A bit much to be saying such things... but yeah, if we get within 20% or 30% of the 200-WMA, then maybe I will start to consider the proposition of a bear market.. so right now, the 200-WMA is right below $36k.. so 30% above the 200-WMA would be right around $46,800.. We have a bit to go... and still I probably would need more than a spike drop to start to consider the proposition of a possible bear market.

I will ladder down a long long long ways. I think this is just summer time blues not an issue at all.
you going to ladder down all the way to buy back those coins you sold around $20k?

#asking4-a-friend

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
I have no issue with my sale at 22k. I have over 50k in tax credits from that sale..

I also purchased back those coins for 16-23k dca.

So if I were to sell 1btc  now at 62k I would use the tax credits and owe no cap gains on the 40k profits.

It does not sound as good when  you describe it like that... you ONLY bang 10s... buy at the bottom, sell at the top.. everything going perfect and as planned... How come I am having troubles believing such after-the-fact claims?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Remember teling guys to sell around $20k? 

And do you remember telling guys to buy IBonds around $16k and $17k.. For some reason I seem to remember those kinds of actual happenings while they were happening.. and surely it would not have been very good for no coiners or low coiners to be engaging in such conduct.. Oh gosh were IBonds being pushed around then, as if they were the best thing next to sliced bread... and really.. much better to have been buying BTC .. all through mid 2022 and into mid-or-late 2023.. even though surely some of us ran out of money during that time since we were buying bitcoin even earlier than mid-2022 prior to its dropping below $35k...,.

And, yeah there are some guys still expecting BTC prices to drop back into the $40ks.. and I cannot be so sure that it will not happen, but still getting the sense that ship has sailed.. and even thinking more than a 2x in profits for guys (new coiners) who would have been engaged in the better practices of consistently buying BTC through the whole of 2022 - even with both good and bad prices during such time.

A guy who would have had been buying bitcoin at $1k per week since the beginning of 2022 until now would have had invested around $129k and would have right around 4.353 BTC right now... not a bad place to be..

And a guy who ONLY invested $1k per week for 2 years through the whole of 2022 and the whole of 2023, would have had ONLY invested right around $105k  and would have 3.939 BTC.. also not a bad place to be.

So yeah, we do not have to time the tops and the bottoms.. yet there is a certain value to continue to buy BTC .. and NOT to be fucking around with buying and selling and attempting to retrospectively justify what you were describing as a good thing.. especially in a thread like this when it is more likely that the vast majority fo the world are short of bitcoin rather than should be fucking around with trying to trade it.. . .and yeah, sure once any of us gets to a stage that we have a lot of bitcoin or too many bitcoin, then sure, no problem.. start to sell whenever you will... and maybe you will be in 15x, 30x, 60x, 100x or some other variation of profits that it might not really matter so much whether you are selling at the top or the bottom.. but at the same time, those who acquire enough bitcoin may well already have various points that they sell some and they have plenty left.. so for the most part, they may well not really be talking about profits that are even less than 10x... and so they might not really feel any needs to say much of anything either... about some coins that they sold..

Maybe I can tell a bit of an anecdote regarding some coins that a friend had moved around and had around $2k-ish in one of his wallets in around late 2020 and was doing a bit of traveling.... so maybe around 0.23 BTC so then if you recall the BTC price went up from around $6k-ish to $64k-ish in early 2021, so then all of a sudden that $2k was worth around $15k, so the friend did some purchases that were related to his traveling.. ..and maybe spent around 2/3rds of his bitcoin, so then he still had 1/3 left (that would have had been around 0.077 BTC remaining) that was worth $5k.. but then surely the price dropped back down, but those coins are up again in recent times.. .. so there may well not be a lot of concerns in regards to when to sell for guys who have enough or they have plenty of coins... but yeah, he still might be picking up some coins along the way too.. such as on dips..  .and just selling whenever.... but still $20k and even $30k and sub $30k were dip times rather than selling times.. at least for most guys who had been in bitcoin for a while... .,.so it just seems problematic to be doing the opposite.. unless you might just be shaving off small amounts... but not really something to have been aiming to do.. 

Look like we should have to see more pain in the market before UP.
Where is pain between 60-70??

When btc was 20k

Was there pain at 17500?

I recall that was right around late 2022 when gallianooo was talking about $12k prices that ended up NOT happening.  gallianooo seems to really get pleasures from DOWNity fantasies..

Look like we should have to see more pain in the market before UP.
I buy the top it dumps, I sell the bottom it pumps (straight downtrend) ?

Protip: Like your username seems to imply, just keep buying dee cornz.. maybe every week of $100 or more (or whatever you can) for the next 4 years and don't sell. .and then after 4 years of those continued weekly buys, reassess if you should continue to keep buying or just hold your BTC from there until maybe you have enough.. yeah, $100 per week for 4 years might well not be enough, but perhaps your budget (your discretionary income) allows for larger buy amounts than that? 

Good luck newbie.. It sounds like you might need it, and hopefully you shake ur lil selfie out of ideas of selling (trading and/or gambling) especially when it comes to king daddy cornz... you gotta get ur selfie a bit of a stash. that may take quite a while before starting to even think about selling any of it.. that is the better approach, especially if you realize the whole world is largely short cornz.
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Today at 03:46:58 AM

It’s a bear trap.

Who is selling bitcoin at 65k, some seriously brain-dead individuals or fat cat out there?
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Today at 05:16:42 AM
Last edit: Today at 05:38:18 AM by JayJuanGee

cmon rip it off already and let's go to 60k so we can start the real fun.

However the sideways market might easily go on until fall or winter
I agree about the sideways market. It felt like everyone was new here talking about how the price would rip right after the halving. Not only does it take a year + to hit the high, but this time we also have the mtgox funds to unwind and Wall Street shorting. The market will go up again when mtgox funds are distributed and Blackrock decides they have gotten as many coins from the weak hands as possible. I’m guessing October.
Buy ladder hit at 64.1k  so I wiped out my 64 k ladder I have a 63k ladder in place.

Hope to do some more buys as we head sideways.

Currently, my buys are every $2k down until we get to around $57k, then they become every $1,500 until we get to $43k and then they are every $1,250 until we get to $28k and then they are every $1k... again having my doubts about even getting into the mid-$50ks.. but sure, it could happen.. just seems strange,. but what else is new about the cornz.. especially since we did get some payoffs for having ATHs prior to the halvening.. so I suppose not continuing to go straight up might be reasonable.. even though I am still thinking that with the ongoing ETF purchases, $120k, to $180k seems a reasonable consolidation period within some point of 2024.. but hey.. who knows.. it would not be the first time that I was wrong.. but at the same time, I don't really change my practices very much (just on the margins) in accordance with my little rough guesses (hypotheses).. so in this particular case, I already have some ideas about where and how much I will set my $120k to $200k sell orders, even though I have not actually set any that goes beyond $150k.. but the tentative plan is already in place - even though I don't really like to set me orders much higher than 2x to 2.5x higher than whatever top that we had already reached.. .. but then most of my sells to $150k had already been somewhat in place since late 2021 ... the only thing is that I tweaked them a bit and one of the exchanges had not let me set them all the way up to $150k (that was initially Binance, and then Binance US).. . .but now it is allowed to go that far up since about June of last year...

[edited out]
We currently have everything in a  'green light' for BTC. If we cannot go higher with all of that till that time (halving / spot ETFs mostly / white house talking about btc & crypto for the election...) then I have some doubt where we can get MORE good news and fomo than this.. But time will tell anyway.

Wow!!!!

Aren't you sounding unusually cheerie.

Did you bump your head on something?


Meaningless stats:

If you look at the graphs, both NVDA and btc appreciated almost to the exact same extent from about June of 2015 (9 years): ~270X, give or take.
I wonder how many people held btc "intact" for those years, how many held NVDA and how many held both (those must be VERY rare "birds").
Respect.

NVDA achieved the highest market cap today on US stock market.
I recall the same happening to CSCO in 2000 when it overcame GE and MSFT.
CSCO "peaking" was not sustainable as once the Internet build-out was largely completed, less growth occurred.
IMHO, same fate for NVDA, eventually.

EDIT: You didn't need to hold both, though  Smiley

I have a bit of trouble with any assertion that anyone seriously buying bitcoin or NVDA would necessarily engage in similar kinds of investment tactics, including any buying tactics that would lump sum buy at one point in time and then just sit on whatever had happened to have been their lump sum buy amount.

yeah, sure people do that, and yeah, sure people have traunches of stocks and/or bitcoin that they had bought in lump sums like that, but I have my doubts regarding those kinds of practices.. especially for an overwhelming majority of normies.

Frequently, you and I have gone back and forth about making comparisons to DCA versus your seemingly fantasy proclamations about various points that bitcoin might have had been bought..., so sure, I would not mind you giving me some kind of a hypothetical that compares the lump summer to the DCA'er and to actually show some kind of a meaningful difference and also to attempt to show (and/or proclaim) that you (or anyone else) can make some kind of an assertion that whatever dates (and amounts) you end up selecting for the supposed lump sum purchases are representative of what any normie would do or would have had done... as compared with the DCA'er who we can describe in terms of weekly, monthly.. and we might even throw in a few lump sum purchases with our DCA'er .. that might reflect in a fairly representative way what actual persons might have had done.
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