Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

GET SOME DISCOUNTED CORN HERE

how low do we go.

normally, in bull markets the 21WEMA (about 61k)

might pierce through for a few days though

I currently see the 21 WEMA at 63K$... Let's see if it's hold

stamp shows me 61.2k, but whatevs

[OgNasty]

Articles going around today about some mystery buyer who scooped up nearly $400 million worth of BTC.  At the same time we had a post from Michael Dell where he said, "Scarcity creates value." 

Some are taking that X post (tweet?) to mean that Dell is adding Bitcoin to it's treasury.  I'm not sure if I believe that as it seems like this is something they'd want to announce, but maybe they have some formal announcement planned for the future or something.  They certainly have the capability to buy $400 million dollars worth of Bitcoin if they wanted to, but as of now I believe that's still speculation.

I guess he felt he wasn’t obvious enough yesterday so today he posted a picture of the Cookie Monster eating bitcoins. It seems like he may be dropping clear and obvious hints and not making an official announcement because maybe his company is still stacking? Anyway, buying is nice, but making an official announcement to kick off game theory would be nicer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Greyhats]

It feels like the market makers are preying on the emotions of the impatient.

I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.

Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.

Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!

[OgNasty]

It feels like the market makers are preying on the emotions of the impatient.

I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.

Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.

Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!

I think the market makers are expecting people to dump their mtgox coins in the coming months and are trying to profit from a downturn by using this coming downward pressure to help push the price down. I think they’ll probably be successful in the short term, but at some point they’ll cover their shorts and send the price to the moon. If you aren’t in need of cash in the next 6 months, it really isn’t something to stress too much over.

[JayJuanGee]

Yhea..German goverment joined the pool of sellers..

I'm curious what they're exchanging it for.

They have 50.000 coins to dump for Euro's.

Fidelity clients selling thousands of coins to FOMO NVIDIA stock.

Gox coins sell-off.

It will be a bloody summer.

Probably those who either continue to buy through the summer (or perhaps merely HODL) are going to be better off than those taking other actions, such as selling.. and yeah, time will tell.  Surely, selling at higher prices and buying back lower can be a profitable approach, but you have to end up getting the price direction correct...and I am not really convinced.. though surely I can buy back at least another $10k or $20k or $30k drop - though of course, non-of-us longer term holders (who are largely accumulators rather than traders or sellers) are wanting the BTC price to drop rather than to go up.. yet we don't even know if the BTC price is going to drop any more from our current low of $63,356 from a few hours ago....

My buys in the $63ks had not triggered, yet.. so then the next ones after that would be in the $61ks.. ..

We've been in these kinds of places previously, and one by one the buy orders might get trigger, but then at some point the buy orders are no longer are touched... so I am not really going to say that I know.. and I still likely consider that we are in price range ($55k to $82k) that has a slightly upward bias to it.. so if we are feeling pessimistic, maybe instead of being 55/45 convinced of up we might lower our sentiments and only feel 51.5% to 48.5% in favor of UP.. even if the price has largely been moving down in the past 2 weeks.

[edited out]

Could be could be... but you make it sound way too certain...

What price for buying in are you waiting for again?

Even if Paashaas might say some price that seems more realistic, like lower $50ks or somewhere into the $40ks - he is not going to be satisfied with the level of his unrealisms.. He was waiting to go back to the sub-$27ks in late 2023... so he has been waiting, hoping and praying for quite a bit.. and to even move his prayers around quite a bit.. so yeah?  When will he? or will he be satisfied?

Why wait to buy? I set buy stairs/ladders

My 64 set at 64.1 64.5 64.9 is done

So I have 63.9 63.5 63.1    and if it  goes I will set a

 62.9 62.5 62.1

rinse and repeat down to ? when ever.

be strong and dca like JJG

I think that I recommend a bit differently... and surely DCA is different from buying on dips.. even though buying on dips can supplement DCA.. so it seems that I suggest mostly ONLY DCAing for beginners up to the time they get to a point of over accumulation.. meaning to focus on a kind of strict DCA'ing. yet I recall that in my first year or so of BTC accumulation, I spent a decent amount of time trying to strategize my weekly buys so that I would be able to buy dips within the week. but at the same time, if the BTC buy had not executed by a certain point of the week, I would just buy with the remaining of that weekly allowance at whatever the BTC price happened to have had been at the time.

Sure BTC buy orders might work to both supplement DCA and to front load the BTC investment, yet in recent times, I have been a bit more reserved when it comes to selling any BTC prior to reaching a status of overaccumulation.... so that determination can be difficult to figure out.. when is it that a guy reaches a point of overaccumulation in which he can stop or modify the way that he does DCA?  I probably cannot even really tell you myself without having some additional facts in regards to the goals that a guy might have and also then figuring out how many BTC he might need in order to have an approximation of being in a state of overaccumulation.

[Greyhats]

It feels like the market makers are preying on the emotions of the impatient.

I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.

Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.

Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!

I think the market makers are expecting people to dump their mtgox coins in the coming months and are trying to profit from a downturn by using this coming downward pressure to help push the price down. I think they’ll probably be successful in the short term, but at some point they’ll cover their shorts and send the price to the moon. If you aren’t in need of cash in the next 6 months, it really isn’t something to stress too much over.

Agreed, some part of me tho thinks this doom and gloom is actually mostly aimed at the gox holders. Aside from the short-term holders, they are probably the most emotional group right now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Why wait to buy? I set buy stairs/ladders

My 64 set at 64.1 64.5 64.9 is done

So I have 63.9 63.5 63.1    and if it  goes I will set a

 62.9 62.5 62.1

rinse and repeat down to ? when ever.

be strong and dca like JJG

That's not how @JJG dca's, I hope, and this approach does not make much sense.

Why? Because you base it on price and not time intervals.
You don't know what is the % move you are dca-ing into, so why these 0.4 thou intervals (which correspond to about 0.6% move)?

If you want dca, I would recommend doing it on a time basis OR in bigger chunks, like Michael Saylor is doing it (proportionally to your stash, of course).
People look at his numbers in awe, like, wow, $700 mil, but it is also "just" about 5% of MSTR "stash", so he is dca-ing by raising money, periodically, but only a few times a year, now.

So, looking at your stash and periodically buying 5% more (if it is possible) seems like a better proposition to me OR doing it strictly on the time basis: once a wk, once a mo, once a quarter.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

https://x.com/bitcoinlfgo/status/1804186415435247627?s=46

[gallianooo]

I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..

This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.

That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.

Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.

In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.

Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..

[Greyhats]

Yhea..German goverment joined the pool of sellers..

I'm curious what they're exchanging it for.

They have 50.000 coins to dump for Euro's.

Fidelity clients selling thousands of coins to FOMO NVIDIA stock.

Gox coins sell-off.

It will be a bloody summer.

Under German law, they have to try and do a public auction first of the confiscated assets. They can't go through the disposal process until they are ordered by the courts, and all of this will be public knowledge. I have a feeling that it will take a while for this to go to trial too and if you want to read up the law side, have a look at page 72 here

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/185046/Disposal-of-confiscated-assets-report.pdf

[Paashaas]

Netherlands will face a devastating defeat against France.

[JayJuanGee]

I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..

This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.

That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.

Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.

In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.

Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..

You make some decent points regarding a potential BTC peak that is either this calendar year or may not being able to last into 2025 - especially f there might end up being a general market crash that begins in early to mid 2025...

I am surely not going to claim to know, even though we both know that bitcoin has had some historical correlation to macro-liquidity, but still macro-liquidity likely does not control bitcoin prices .. so I will take those kinds of seemingly relatively bearish predictions with a grain of salt.. even though sure they could happen.. which is that we could either peak in 2024 or no later than early 2025 - but even if those things were to happen, we cannot really have a lot of confidence about the details including how much BTC goes up before it goes down, and including how much BTC goes down too.. so if BTC does not go up very much, then it might not have a lot of room to go down either.. which brings me back to my own  reservations regarding attempting to describe too many legs of our bitcoin price dynamics journey in advance.

[El duderino_]

Netherlands will face a devastating defeat against France.

I don't know there defence is solid... some strong players in front simons, frimpong, gakpo...

france not starting kylian...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..

This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.

That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.

Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.

In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.

Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..

Have been post about it…. Assuming you missed them

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com