Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

It seems that each time Michael Saylor announces his latest purchase of bitcoin, the price dumps. This is conterintuitive, but one explanation is that after the announcements, the bears feel safe to short since there's going to be no huge MSTR buying pressure for a few days.

I keep seeing people confused by the price action when Saylor buys and I can't understand what is confusing about it.  "The price dips after Saylor buys."  Well, duh...  If you buy billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, it pushes the price up unnaturally, then as normalcy sets in the price comes back down.  Still, every time Saylor buys I see people on X saying he should do surprise buys or other comments like that...  Unfortunately, even if you pop out of the bushes and surprise the market with a buy out of nowhere, the price still gets pushed up and then settles back down again.  Is this not common sense? 

@d_eddies's explanation is better 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Thanks for your reply, Torque.

It seems that each time Michael Saylor announces his latest purchase of bitcoin, the price dumps. This is conterintuitive, but one explanation is that after the announcements, the bears feel safe to short since there's going to be no huge MSTR buying pressure for a few days.

I think the real answer to this question is buried at the end of this article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/david-einhorn-says-we-have-reached-the-fartcoin-stage-of-the-market-cycle.html

Shorting leveraged bitcoin ETFs

Greenlight took advantage of the craziness around crypto during the fourth quarter by betting against some popular ETFs linked indirectly to bitcoin.

The two funds the firm focused on were the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) and the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF (MSTX). Those funds use derivatives to try to achieve two-times the daily returns of MicroStrategy,

a software company that has turned itself into a bitcoin treasury vehicle in recent years.

The funds have at times struggled to achieve that goal due to MicroStrategy’s volatility and little supply of the derivatives most easily used to get the leveraged returns.

The letter said Greenlight took short positions against those funds during the quarter, partially offset by owning MicroStrategy stock in an arbitrage trade that was a “material winner.”

TL/DR - So shorting MSTR Long 2X ETFs while owing MSTR stock, an arbitrage play.

Do these 2x ETFs track bitcoin or something else? Do Greenlight add on top of their short after MSTR buys, or is that an automatic effect of the makeup of the ETFs? I honestly don't understand the mechanism hinted at by the article.


Thanks OGNasty, too, for trying to clear my doubts, but I do not see it, either.

It seems that each time Michael Saylor announces his latest purchase of bitcoin, the price dumps. This is conterintuitive, but one explanation is that after the announcements, the bears feel safe to short since there's going to be no huge MSTR buying pressure for a few days.

I keep seeing people confused by the price action when Saylor buys and I can't understand what is confusing about it.  "The price dips after Saylor buys."  Well, duh...  If you buy billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, it pushes the price up unnaturally,

Is supply/demand an unnatural law?

then as normalcy sets in the price comes back down.

I would object that the bitcoins removed from supply stay removed as long as MSTR doesn't sell them back immediately, which would restore "normalcy". Where is my fallacy, if any?

Still, every time Saylor buys I see people on X saying he should do surprise buys or other comments like that...  Unfortunately, even if you pop out of the bushes and surprise the market with a buy out of nowhere, the price still gets pushed up and then settles back down again.  Is this not common sense?  

I don't see the common sense in the "then settles back down again" bit. You are assuming a "locally unlimited" supply, is my impression.

Of course I might be wrong - I often am - so a more detailed explanation could help me see what you mean (and maybe Torque too, from a different angle).

[Ambatman]

"The price dips after Saylor buys."  Well, duh...  If you buy billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, it pushes the price up unnaturally, then as normalcy sets in the price comes back down.  Still, every time Saylor buys I see people on X saying he should do surprise buys or other comments like that...  Unfortunately, even if you pop out of the bushes and surprise the market with a buy out of nowhere, the price still gets pushed up and then settles back down again.  Is this not common sense? 

Saylor with the help of Coinbase implement TWAP( time weighted average price) by buying in small orders in a way it won't impact the market much and could take days to complete.
Yes large buys increases prices but people sell to take profit since they know the rise is temporary and in the case of saylor they sell the news.

I don't see the common sense in the "then settles back down again" bit. You are assuming a "locally unlimited" supply, is my impression.

Of course I might be wrong - I often am - so a more detailed explanation could help me see what you mean (and maybe Torque too, from a different angle).

in summary Price correct itself to meet demand and supply in this case on order book.
Take for example there are two buyers and five sellers
Seller one wants to sell for $10
Seller two wants to sell for $20
With $10 increment till seller 5 assuming they all have 2 unit each.
Buyer one wants to buy 6 unit and has the money
When he exhaust seller one goods, the next available price is seller 2, He continues this cycle until he gets all 6. In the process the market price became $30(seller three price).
Now we have seller four and five with higher price set but the only buyer now available is buyer 2 who wants to buy at $20.
There's a gap Now and if the seller needs to sell then he has to sell at buyers price hence a fall and correction.


P.S could be flawed

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

BACH
@CyclesWithBach
On average #Bitcoin returns 50% from January 1st to February 28th in post halving years (2013, 2017, 2021) 💥

That means we’re going to hit $139,000 in late February, as we opened the year at about $93,000

As I told you the first three weeks of January would be a little choppy and I predicted $88,000 would be max pain. All of this were based on objective data - You won’t get your 70k

Q1 BABY 🚀
https://x.com/cycleswithbach/status/1881777002824519788


I really, really, really hope this plays out.

My body is ready.

LFG magic internet money.

[LDL]

President-elect Donald Trump has finally given a tacit approval to pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. We will see his free life very soon.

Tweet: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1881828122896773210?t=v6fsP7tQOZaH2BMk4yMRkQ&s=19
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1881824404457525292?t=TZTdm_mRkP34RI-Hf9QzBA&s=19

[OgNasty]

Ross is free baby!

It is being reported that President Trump has given Ross Ulbricht a full pardon! I expect we will see a formal announcement before the night is over. A Bitcoiner is coming home. This should be reason for all of us to celebrate. Without Ross shining a light on Bitcoin, who knows where we would all be today.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

It's official:

[Powerjumboo]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER TO FREE ROSS ULBRICHT



https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1881853092309999648?t=qe40pCcOmnkiL69DjB1uqQ&s=19

[cAPSLOCK]

[d_eddie]

If you buy billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin, it pushes the price up unnaturally, then as normalcy sets in the price comes back down.

Saylor with the help of Coinbase implement TWAP( time weighted average price) by buying in small orders in a way it won't impact the market much and could take days to complete.

I don't see the common sense in the "then settles back down again" bit.

a more detailed explanation could help me see what you mean

in summary Price correct itself to meet demand and supply in this case on order book.
Take for example there are two buyers and five sellers
Seller one wants to sell for $10
Seller two wants to sell for $20
With $10 increment till seller 5 assuming they all have 2 unit each.
Buyer one wants to buy 6 unit and has the money
When he exhaust seller one goods, the next available price is seller 2, He continues this cycle until he gets all 6. In the process the market price became $30(seller three price).
Now we have seller four and five with higher price set but the only buyer now available is buyer 2 who wants to buy at $20.
There's a gap Now and if the seller needs to sell then he has to sell at buyers price hence a fall and correction.


P.S could be flawed

Of course you might be wrong too, (why doesn't buyer two adjust their bids when they see price ramping up?), but I do follow your explanation. Thank you!

[d_eddie]

Ross the bitcoiner
No market without buyers
He was just helping





#haiku

[suzanne5223]

It's official:

[snip]

Yes, it is official and this is one of the news that really matters in Bitcoin space. The next news that matters will be Trump's move towards the Bitcoin reserve strategy just as he made the official announcement of a $500 billion AI investment.

[cAPSLOCK]

Wikipedia...

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ross Ulbricht
Born   Ross William Ulbricht

March 27, 1984 (age 40)[3]
Austin, Texas, U.S.
Other names   Silk Road Admin, SR Admin, Dread Pirate Roberts, DPR, Frosty, Altoid
Alma mater   University of Texas at Dallas (BS)
Pennsylvania State University (MS)
Occupation   Darknet market operator
Years active   February 2011 – October 2013
Known for   Creator of Silk Road
Conviction(s)   

    Engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise
    Distributing narcotics
    Distributing narcotics by means of the Internet
    Conspiring to distribute narcotics
    Conspiring to commit money laundering (February 6, 2015)
    Conspiring to traffic in false identity documents
    Conspiring to commit computer hacking[1]

Criminal penalty   

    Life imprisonment without the possibility of parole plus $183,961,921 fine (May 29, 2015)
    Pardoned by Donald Trump (January 21, 2025)

Date apprehended
   October 1, 2013
Imprisoned at   United States Penitentiary, Tucson[2]
Website   freeross.org

Ross William Ulbricht (born March 27, 1984) is an American who was sentenced to life imprisonment for creating and operating the darknet market website Silk Road from 2011 until his arrest in 2013.[4] Ulbricht received a full and unconditional pardon by President Donald Trump on January 21, 2025.[5][6][7]

[bestcandy]

Ross is free baby!

It is being reported that President Trump has given Ross Ulbricht a full pardon! I expect we will see a formal announcement before the night is over. A Bitcoiner is coming home. This should be reason for all of us to celebrate. Without Ross shining a light on Bitcoin, who knows where we would all be today.

Trump has just prove that he is a true leader that have the interest of the people at heart. The signed pardon of Ross is a plus to Bitcoin because of his outstanding role to Bitcoin and he is one of those that have shined light to Bitcoin investment and I believe that this unconditional pardon is an indication that Trump administration will have positive impact on Bitcoin especially if he achieve his propose intention of making Bitcoin a strategy reserve of US.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Ross is a free man.
Bye bye USP Tucson.
Hello Silk Road 3.

#rossfreedhaiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com