Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitmover]

I found this article interesting

Central banks are selling US bonds to buy gold.

This guy is recommending gold for a long time. And he is predicting it can even reach 10k, which is 3x from now.

As USD collapses  , alternatives such as gold and even bitcoin will get a lot of money.

Image what could happen if just a small part comes to btc

https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/dollar-alert-foreign-central-banks-now-own-more-gold-than-usd-153457
Foreign governments and central banks now own more gold than they own US Treasury securities.

That means that foreign nations trust in gold more than they trust in the US government.

We’ve been saying this for years: foreign central banks are selling their dollars, and using those dollars to buy gold.

Why? Because the US government’s massive debts make it a less trustworthy lender. While it’s unlikely that the US would outright default, it is very likely that Uncle Sam will eventually turn to the money printer as the “solution” to its debt challenge.

...

At $2,000 gold we said this was just the beginning. At $3,000 gold we said that the story was still in its early days. At $3,500 gold, I’m still telling you that this story has much longer to play out.

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line, so there will always be pullbacks and corrections. But the case for gold easily goes to $5,000… and potentially well over $10,000.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I’d feel a little better if we were melting up to the news or no news about MSTR tomorrow. The fading price makes me think the ‘somebody knows something’ indicator is saying we won’t get an S&P500 inclusion tomorrow. Hopefully we’re just seeing selling as people don’t want to bet on this and the decision hasn’t leaked.

It's interesting that Wall Street veteran Josh Mandell firmly thinks the S&P 500 committee has already decided that Strategy will be included in the S&P 500, and that only an announcement confirming it is due tomorrow.

The other candidates - AppLovin Corp., Robinhood Markets Inc. and Carvana don't have the same high-tech flavor as Strategy like the committee’s recent inclusion of Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, and Jack Dorsey’s fintech payment firm, Block Inc. which definitely signals a recognition of the growing footprint of the digital-asset class. 90+% chance MSTR will be added.

https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1963479705857786263?t=bnoaNx6da37xWtIFKZS4yw&s=19

[El duderino_]

I’d feel a little better if we were melting up to the news or no news about MSTR tomorrow. The fading price makes me think the ‘somebody knows something’ indicator is saying we won’t get an S&P500 inclusion tomorrow. Hopefully we’re just seeing selling as people don’t want to bet on this and the decision hasn’t leaked.

50-60% chance "grok"

if the % is this low and BTC related then mostly we get the negative side of the coin.

End of year its giving 91-96% chance...  even with this high of % nothing is guaranteed for BTC related things.
We always have to go the hard way if we follow our parcours from the past until now.

Not gonna lie, I had to look " parcours" up.

our ride

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[hypebrother]

~snip~

~snip~

Interesting observation.

But I liked your website more.

Code:

 bitcoindata.science

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

I’d feel a little better if we were melting up to the news or no news about MSTR tomorrow. The fading price makes me think the ‘somebody knows something’ indicator is saying we won’t get an S&P500 inclusion tomorrow. Hopefully we’re just seeing selling as people don’t want to bet on this and the decision hasn’t leaked.

50-60% chance "grok"

if the % is this low and BTC related then mostly we get the negative side of the coin.

End of year its giving 91-96% chance...  even with this high of % nothing is guaranteed for BTC related things.
We always have to go the hard way if we follow our parcours from the past until now.

Not gonna lie, I had to look " parcours" up.

our ride

For anyone who wants a refresher on what parkour is (to us Americans), this is my personal favorite implementation of it.

https://youtu.be/0Kvw2BPKjz0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.

so, basically we will be able to gift whole cornz again later this year?

buy the dip lol?

Personally, I don't think we've come close the the face melting blowoff top this cycle. Though I do envision it ending in a huge crash - to .... umm ... maybe $200K?

DYOR

Nice to see you.

I used to think I had a napkin math handle on the macroeconomic and social forces of the day.  But at our current point I am quite confused.  There are so many forces in play.  A weakening USD, the possibility of a "gold backed" electronic BRICS currency.  Look at China's gold (and gold derivatives) acquisition.  The migration and social upheaval in Europe.  The strangely similar, but currently stemmed tide of migration to the US.  The advent of the public's awareness of AI (which obviously is not new to the 'powers that be') .  The first, second, etc order effects of AI on society.  The emergence of new extreme demand of power and water by data centers while the global population's demand for these things is also growing.  The various wars in play.  A proxy war between the US and Russia. The absolute extermination of people in Gaza.

The establishment of paper bitcoin in the form of NASDAQ plays (MSTR and it's derivatives as well as the many copycats)  as well as things like ETF's.  And the centralization of BTC custody.  And their sensible and enevitable meltdown.

I will not bore you with the other 90% of my list.

Bitcoin remains the escape hatch.

The central bank(s) and it's tentacles like the BIS, IMF etc do not want this... so they are moving faster and faster towards CBDCs.  And identity control. 

-Sigh-

But you are probably right.  Even in the presence of all these things... the cycle continues.

Bitcoin does not care.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[adultcrypto]

Free ride to $115k.

The push for new ATH has just began.

Market structure broken to the upside and liquidity (fuel) taken, all set for the ride.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

In 2021, he went further, backing payments app Strike as his first startup investment and pledging to take all marketing income in Bitcoin through the platform. At the time, Bitcoin’s price was approximately $32,000. Today, it’s hovering around $111,000, turning a $10 million income stream into a $35 million asset.

+

https://www.readtheprofile.com/p/saquon-barkley-investment-portfolio

[sirazimuth]

Every move up is preceded by a few ants dumping. This smells like intimidation. Let us not be scared.

The royal "us"?

The WO us.

Synonymous?

Gold teeth, Grey Goose, trippin' in the bathroom
Bloodstains, ball gowns, trashin' the hotel room
We don't care, we're driving Cadillacs in our dreams
But everybody's like
Cristal, Maybach, diamonds on your timepiece
Jet planes, islands, tiger's on a gold leash
We don't care, we aren't caught up in your love affair

And we'll never be royals (Royals)
It don't run in our blood
That kind of luxe just ain't for us
We crave a different kind of buzz
Let me be your ruler (Ruler)
You can call me queen bee
And baby, I'll rule (I'll rule, I'll rule, I'll rule)
Let me live that fantasy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=299LR2OWvoU

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

<snip>
But at our current point I am quite confused.  

<snip>Even in the presence of all these things... the cycle continues.

Bitcoin does not care.

I agree with the confusion part, not 100% agree with the second, but don't disagree either...it just remains to be seen.
Some guy (who speaks a bit like the "mad hatter" from "Alice in wonderland") proudly predicts MSTR bankruptcy scenario in 2026.

I don't buy it necessarily, but MSTR gyrations is something bitcoin would have to endure at some point.
It may be at least moderately likely that bitcoin would at some point undergo a secular bear market, but I don't envision this happening until 8-10 tril in market cap (or maybe even higher).

It seems that a lot of hodlers are uncertain about the state of the market rn.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I’d feel a little better if we were melting up to the news or no news about MSTR tomorrow. The fading price makes me think the ‘somebody knows something’ indicator is saying we won’t get an S&P500 inclusion tomorrow. Hopefully we’re just seeing selling as people don’t want to bet on this and the decision hasn’t leaked.

It's interesting that Wall Street veteran Josh Mandell firmly thinks the S&P 500 committee has already decided that Strategy will be included in the S&P 500, and that only an announcement confirming it is due tomorrow.

The other candidates - AppLovin Corp., Robinhood Markets Inc. and Carvana don't have the same high-tech flavor as Strategy like the committee’s recent inclusion of Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, and Jack Dorsey’s fintech payment firm, Block Inc. which definitely signals a recognition of the growing footprint of the digital-asset class. 90+% chance MSTR will be added.

https://x.com/Vivek4real_/status/1963479705857786263?t=bnoaNx6da37xWtIFKZS4yw&s=19

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does Strategy's inclusion to the S&P 500 mean for Bitcoin?

"When MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Michael Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop."

► https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500
 

[Greyhats]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Sendtember is gearing up :-)