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Yes, you can see it as a downward spiral, but there is sufficient upwards movement to compensate for, but the real question is:
For how long?
This is a funny, and even strange assessment of what the BTC price is currently doing.
In essence, you seem to be saying:
"The BTC price is going down, but ONLY while it is ultimately going up."
Real comedic relief in these here parts.
Rate cut - quantitative easing restart - quantitative tightening ending - China U.S trade deal - gold ATH - hash rate ATH - record ETF inflow - low supply - adoption - tech stocks ATH and so on.
Seems like nothing can make Bitcoin pump anymore.
Until it does
Hahahahahaha
This seems to be the real punchline in regards to what is going on.
It is funny how so many guys have been here so long, and they still forget what we got.. some of the real underlying thing that is going on.
Seems like nothing can make Bitcoin pump anymore.
Until it does
Exactly. If even the WO-thread feels desperate, it reminds me of this:
Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.
The funny part is: I found this on Reddit's crypto board, and it was posted 5 years ago.
Guys surely make mistakes.
Even if we consider ourselves as investors, from time to time, we seem to lapse into trading kinds of ideations.
I doubt that the bet matters too much, and it is seeming that the odds are against LFC.. even though he had some moments of even expressing seemingly exaggerated proclamations that the bet was "easy money" for his lil selfie... hahahahaha
Even now, a mere week or two later, LFC's sentiment has likely changed (perhaps perhaps? He seems to admit that he gets overly emotional about some of these matters - even though he likely has various underlying presumptions that are less likely to waver), even though perhaps he still feels he has reasonable odds for winning the bet.
So we expect another win for JJG here?
I think members knowledge will increase only after they lose bets with JJG.
It is not over until it is over, and surely I am not even expecting that my odds are close to certain, even though there is some benefit in having 5 months to see if it happens... but yeah, if we go below $85k I will start to think I lost for sure (even though I probably would not pay before then end of the timeline, since even some fairly bad set of circumstances might not completely rule out a new ATH prior to the end of the 1st quarter of 2026.
Even staying below $95k for any extended period of time, such as more than a couple of weeks, might bring the top for this cycle (and whether it is "in" - in line with LFC's proposition) into question.
so here we are oct 30 and touching 106 and change
seems a lot dec 2024 when we were at 106 and change.
Does not seem the same to me.
But? What do I know?
In December 2024, we were barely breaking into supra $100k for the first time.
Now, we have spent nearly 6 months straight - completely above $100k.
There is something to be said about Lindy Effect.. and so many guys spout out that they want "stability," yet when we get some semblance of "stability," I hear complaints.
New theory, the cycle is extended and we will see the top of this cycle in Q4 2026. Who's with me?
Take it one quarter at a time.
No need to strive towards Nostradamus wannabe status. We already have a good number of those, in these here parts.
New theory, the cycle is extended and we will see the top of this cycle in Q4 2026. Who's with me?
I am with you somewhat. It looks to me, like over the last 15 years, the cycles have gone from being mind-bendingly polar to a little bit softer each time.
And I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't go down to $25-30k this time.
I might not be shocked if we ended up going below $80k, which is my current bet offer level, yet I would be shocked if we ere to ever go below $55k. .ever, ever, ever again.
So I don't see how you believe thrown $25k to $30k numbers out there, as if they were even close to realistic in almost any real world (beyond fantasies) scenario.
In fact, I would be a little shocked if we did. I think there's a better chance we start seeing smaller waves both in their amplitude and in their duration.
Which is the Hopium that I'm snorting right now to help me feel calm in a little pullback...
I will agree that our current correction, so far, is quite "small potatoes."
Our low, so far, has gotten down to $103,530 on October 16th.. which was coincidentally a mere 10 days from our October 6th topi of $126,272 - which I measure to ONLY be an 18% correction - which is not outrageous in bitcoin's historical times, but it seems to have gotten a lot of panties in a twist this time around, so far.
Then you have the fundamental stuff which for Bitcoin is really its own health as a network and then the environment of the global macroeconomic world.
In those two, we are seeing a whole lot more chaos, honestly.
The narratives this season are pretty crazy.
You've got the whole Tempest in a teapot / existential crisis in bitcoin.
You have big leaders all over the earth marching the entire planet into war.
We are seemingly at the top of a technological renaissance.
The US dollar is dancing naked on a high wire over the Grand Canyon.
Do we have paper bitcoin?
Our institutions actually buying up more than is being produced each day.
We have a finite number of whales who are turning over great hordes.
Some of the narratives out there suggest that maybe the big banks, blackrock etc, are just trying to shake our coins out of us.
I am glad that for the most part somehow I am able to just watch all this from a lounge chair. Maybe drinking a white Russian.
And as of this moment, Bitcoin is six figures US dollars.
Lol.
We've been through worse FUD.. at least, it seems to this here cat.
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