I have no 'skillz' in timing anything in my life at all...why should this be any different?
That’s a little bit depressing. Maybe you just haven’t found your opportunity yet. The fact that you are here at all I would say makes your timing better than the vast majority of people on this planet. It may be difficult to see that now, but I bet in a few more years when you look back you’ll realize it is the truth.
Trump and Xi meeting now. This will either be really good or really bad for markets.
'
Timing and HODL I'll give you that....Timing on when to move sell that some claim to be able to do (sell on the high and buy on the low) er ...nope...
no skills in that...proven repeatedly....
Hahahaha
Good one Searing.
Guys fucking around with bitcoin and acting like they know everything surely seems problematic for them and also anyone reading their "know it all" wannabe crap.
Well, markets over time for a 70% drop. ('26)
<snip>
Quoting from a Pink Floyd song: "If ya don't eat yer meat, you can't have any pudding!'
..according to most..we did not "have our meat" yet [measly upside since 2021], so why would we have a pudding (in a form of a "sweet" 70% decline for the bottom fishers, lol)?
Market is chaotic, imho, for multiple and not immediately related reasons, most of which are macro.
I am having similar difficulties in understanding how BTC can be so overly exuberant supposedly after 4 more years of additional growth.. and yeah, so far ONLY a 2x upside from a mediocre 2021 top.. and yeah, I am not much for measuring from tops, yet we also had spent quite a bit of time around that 2021 top..
We spend a decent amount of time (twice) in 2021, and then we returned to that 2021 top and spent something like 8 months in that area, and somehow guys (who are supposedly educated about bitcoin) think that there is some reasonable justification that the price somehow either has to go back there and/or revisit such prices.
And, yeah, I get it that the 200-WMA is merely at $54,600, but it is also going up around $40 per day.. so I am having trouble seeing how any kinds of sub $60k prices are even close to being considered as in the ballpark of non-looney to be proposing them as if they had any real meaningful chance of being touched.. absent some crazy short-lived downity spike..
I understand that anything is possible, yet some things just seem unreasonable to be presenting as if they were something that has any reasonable chance of happening.
Do you really think that the BIG money is all on the same side of this bitcoin and/or sound money thingie-ma-jiggie? Do you believe that some of the BIG money folks who are seeming to be in favor of bitcoin and who are largely all in bitcoin are going to appreciate if they are manipulated out of their position?
Well some of this would depend on definitions of things like "big money" etc. No. I do not think they are after the "big money" if we are talking about Saylor or Fink for example. But Wall Street is playing now. And they have realized Bitcoin is a finite asset. And if their goal is to benefit from it, or control it, or destroy it... the strategy (ha) is the same. They have to own a lot of it.
So they can accumulate from three main sources now.
1. Miners. Whatever the miners are selling is getting snapped up every day.
2. OGs. There are thousands of bitcoiners who are at a point now who feel they can live off their bitcoin, while being able to survive even the unlikely ~80% winter. There will be more of these people each cycle (or period of time). And even the ones who were set in one of the last "cycles" may still be selling. Even if they are selling just small amounts to maintain a baseline lifestyle I would imagine there are enough to provide quite a bit of the reason why we are flat for 2025.
Yeah, some of the stories about the supposed bulls selling a lot of their coin come off as unbelievable, and I gave several examples in the past.. and yeah, guys with something like 80k coin, seem like they would not be very common, and even guys with somewhere between 500 BTC to 4,000 BTC, they might not even be very common, yet they really would not need to sell large quantities of BTC in order to get some advantages of their BTC.. since maybe the quantity that they invested might not be even the cost of 1 or 2 BTC currently, especially if we might be referring to guys who might have had accumulated good portions (if not all) of their BTC stash prior to the 2013 price run.
I just don't buy some of the stories even though sure in the aggregate we have the 500 BTC to 4000 BTC folks who had been selling some of their coins.. perhaps.. but just selling a few coins might still be enough to just upgrade their lives a bit.. and just to mostly keep their value in bitcoin.. and yeah, some might convert over to sustainable withdrawal, so maybe they are starting to sell 1-10 BTC per year... and so yeah, maybe in the aggregate (perhaps) it is helping to supply some of the new entrants with the coins that are being bought through the ETFs and/or other places that coins are being bought.
The lower level category of guys who have 50 to 500 BTC maybe well even be in a position to start to sell some of their coins on a regular basis, and maybe they would not be selling as much as the higher coin level guys, yet I had already pointed out that
entry level fuck you status of sustainable withdrawal of something like $80k per year can currently start at a mere 14.6543 BTC, so even the guy with a mere 50 BTC could start to live at least 3x the entry-level and even with a 7% per year increase in the dollar amount that he is pulling out... so from my point of view, these guys are not necessariliy needing to sell large portions of their stash in order to greatly benefit from the stash that they had mostly acquired, perhaps 10 years or more into the past.
I had even painted scenarios of guys who got into bitcoin later, such as around or after the 2017 price run, and if they did most if not all of their BTC accumulation prior to 2021, they likely would be in quite great shape, especially if they had been able to put a year or more of their income (or their expenses) into bitcoin.
I am having some troubles buying some of the supposed selling stories or appreciating any needs for OGs to sell large portions of their stash for either consumption and for sure for the investment in likely inferior assets... which it should be known by now, especially for almost anyone who has been in bitcoin for more than 10 years, that bitcoin is the superior place to keep your time, energy and value.
Of course, in some inheritance situations the heirs (descendants) are likely not to be orange pilled enough to actually recognize and/or appreciate the better situation to keep the value mostly if not exclusively in bitcoin.. so sure in those cases they may well be cashing out most if not all of the BTC stashes.. yet what percentage of situations would those heir cashing out situations be?
3. The people who either do not understand bitcoin or are just weak. People who see it as an investment. Maybe got into an ETF and now want to lock in the "gains" before the crypto bear they hear about constantly.
I think group 1 is insignificant, group 2 is bread and butter, and group 3 are the cherry on top.
Could be.
I am speculating of course, but I think the powers that be would destroy bitcoin if they could. But I also think they have likely realized they can't. So they will own it. And to own it they have to convince as many people as possible to sell. The system is STILL set up in a way where this is VERY easy to exploit. Firstly because these people have more money than the above average bitcoin holder can even imagine. This gives them amazing power. And secondly because the real market is no longer where the prices are set publicly. These entities are not BUYING on Kraken/Bitstamp/Binance etc. But they might buy EXTRA coins OTC to sell on retail to suppress the price oracles.
I had believed in some of those ideas of differing OTC prices, yet I am not really buying that story anymore either.. so OTC prices are still likely largely within 5% of the exchange prices.. Sure there might be outliers, yet guys are likely finding it quite difficult to obtain BTC for prices that are way out of sync with exchange prices..
Luckily this is a limited edge.. but I imagine it is still there for now.
We can agree to disagree.. I have quite a few doubts that these days the price differences between OTC and exchanges are very large.
Perhaps the various powers that be (that you seem to be imagining) can get Saylor/MSTR to either dump his coins or they will forcibly remove Saylor/MSTR from his coins?
Those kinds of "outrageous" and perhaps "necessary" actions might help us to get to a 70%-ish drop under current conditions? Perhaps? Perhaps?
I may be a fool. But currently I buy Saylor's conviction. So I think it will be very hard to CONVINCE him to sell... They would have to drive him into having to cover... and even if they had the ability to do that, I think it would be the wrong play entirely. Because they know they cant stop the BTC train OR Ms. Aldens train.
We are saying the same thing, which is that Saylor would have to be forced, and I don't think he is selling, absent some sort of coercion.
They have a LOT of power and ammo. But no one can stop the sun from rising.
Or setting.
Now you are saying the same thing as me.
Otherwise I am having some difficulties seeing your visions that seem to include an assessment of "down before up," even though you have likely outlined fairly well what some of the powers that be would prefer to happen, since they cannot really help their level of greed.. but the mere fact that various powers that be have more greed, more cunning and more access to various "financial" and "manipulation" levers as compared to other rich peeps, it does not mean that the shit-twats always get their way in all regards, since if they were to have had gotten their way, we probably would still be in the sub $60ks..
I have to go and read what I have posted previously. Because I know I can be dramatic... but I feel like this assessment is worse than what I really believe. THough I know I can be dramatic.
One sec..
OK I am back. Well, I can see where you might read negativity in my words. But I actually think we are in a FANTASTIC position.
You still have a negative streak that comes through your writing from time to time when you go into the various doom and gloom scenarios, and you have been doing it for years, since I can recall having similar battles with you in the past.. and I am not even opposed to having the battles.. because I believe that you actually believe what you are writing as you are writing it.. so maybe you get yourself whooped up into a frenzie from time to time...
I am betting (a lot honestly) that we are NOT going to see another big bear. I think the 70% you mention is very very unlikely. About the worst I can se is a pullback to the ~ 65k realm.And I think that is in the 10-15% likelihood.
Going down from here is one thing.. and yeah maybe $65k.. but if we go up before down, then in terms of percentages for the correction, then it could become a lot greater. I just have difficulties seeing 50% or more correction from here, but if the price goes into the upper $100ks or even into the $200ks to $300ks then 70% or greater would have good chances of being back on the table.
It seems to me that the degree of down that is likely depends in part upon the outrageousness of whatever up precedes it.
.....and yeah, I understand, that you already think that we are going there and that the powers that be merely allowed the BTC price to pump to $126k-ish, but they have been in charge of what bitcoin has been doing the whole time, blah blah blah.. Pretty lame, even though sure what you are saying is plausible, but sounds like an overly pessimistic long-shot that is coming from a person who does not sufficiently trust in the power of bitcoin..
Yes. I have communicated badly. I do not see it that way at all. I see the "powers that be" to have extraordinary influence, but not THAT much. They can count on the miners... and feed off the OGs who are allowing some of their hoard to support them (I am in this group... but as conservatively as possible).
But it is group 3 that I think is the most abused. But it's always been that way.
This is no fun anymore since it seems that we are starting to agree with each other too much.
I am pretty sure that you are not a bear, but you come up with some doosies sometimes, and even though I don't have problems considering some of those kinds of "out there" ideas, there likely still needs to be some kind of thread in your posting of these ideas to remind normies (especially normie newbies) that it is best (in their own personal interests - not just to save bitcoin blah blah blah) for an overwhelming majority of newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) to keep buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, ongoingly, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, even if some variation of your overly and unnecessary negative (seemingly wet dream for bears) scenario ends up playing out.
I think I am just very dramatic. I am not nearly as bearish as you are interpreting.
In fact I am not bearish at all.
You have your moments in either direction, from my point of view.
I think the tulip like volatility of Bitcoin's first 10+ years is starting to wind down. In fact every cycle I am one of the ones saying "it is different this time"
Something like a tulip bubble could really only last one cycle or maybe one and a half at most.
Bitcoin cannot hardly be anything close to a tulip bubble because it had too many ups and downs and then up again, so folks (not you) should have had figured it out by now... bitcoin ain't no tulip bubble because tulip bubbles no don't work like dat.
And I do not want to say it here and look like the same fool again.... But I think I agree with what Saylor is intimating.
The is not going to be a big drop this time. There may be a drop... I mean we are in one now. But I do not see us going to the sub 50% from ATH, and will actually be surprised if we see that.
We got to nearly 30% in the drop from $109k to $74k, and this current drop has ONLY reached 18% so far.. so it is hard sto really consider that our drop (so far) is much of anything to get overly excited about, even if we have not yet reached the bottom and maybe it is possible that we could end up testing $100k... perhaps? perhaps?
I also believe it is likely we are not done with this "cycles" bull. In some ways I do not think we have started it entirely.
And THAT, I think is the machinations of wall street. Confusing us... or perhaps BORING us out of our coins.
Whether the cycles are dead or not, it seems too early to be proclaiming them to be dead.
So.. I would be glad for you to point out where my proclamations are overly bearish... and that is not a claim I have not. I am too feeble to really know what I said yesterday. Or even this morning.
I am actually encouraged by the extreme bearish sentiment I see right now.
It is not that big of a deal if we might have our bullish and bearish feelings, and surely we are engaged in back and forth posts, and sometimes we might say something stronger or weaker than we had anticipated that we were wanting to say.
That said... we have been trending bearish for a while here, and many see this flat year as a failure.
I see it as a year that TPTB are doing everything they can to slow the rate that the BTC price rises, and that they cannot do this forever. I believe we have a VERY bullish period in front us... By the end of the year? I don't know... But I do not think we are about to enter "winter".
Yep. Let see what happens in the coming weeks.. The next two are critical.
tm Or not.
And, yeah I get that there might be desires to try to get bitcoin to conform to certain wishes of some players, but desires and results might be two different stories.
...Not quite, a good example of keeping a secret key...
[edited out]
You have any thoughts of your own on the topic?
......yes?, ...maybe?, ...no?
Something is wrong with your posts.
Perhaps a bot?
Perhaps a bot with humanizing effects... just a lot of gibberish, even though every once in a while you say something that is sensible and interesting.. but still for me, seems to be a rare occurrence.
Poll
