Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitHodlers]

$100k about to break, panic is everywhere. I am disappointed at the people but I am also laughing.   This is a great shakeout moment.  

So many hodlers in the forum. I dont understand a one thing. Can someone explain me one thing? Why holders are so active at the speculation part of the forum? If I would be a hodler, a hardcore holder I would not watch the price. Why would I? That makes no sense to me. Just forget about the price that would be easier to hodl. Wouldnt it?

Bias from what you see. Most hodlers are not here and they are quiet. 

[Richy_T]

So many hodlers in the forum. I dont understand a one thing. Can someone explain me one thing? Why holders are so active at the speculation part of the forum? If I would be a hodler, a hardcore holder I would not watch the price. Why would I? That makes no sense to me. Just forget about the price that would be easier to hodl. Wouldnt it?

It's fun. Hodling in itself is fairly mundane otherwise.

[OutOfMemory]

The captchas are getting harder!

I’m still feeling it, it’s interesting how the media is starting to introduce the new themes;

- the qe messaging
- perhaps peace deals in eu
- politicking out of deadlock, what worse than hunger, homelessness?


I think we are about to have the god candle

Stack and hodl!!!!!

So many hodlers in the forum. I dont understand a one thing. Can someone explain me one thing? Why holders are so active at the speculation part of the forum? If I would be a hodler, a hardcore holder I would not watch the price. Why would I? That makes no sense to me. Just forget about the price that would be easier to hodl. Wouldnt it?

Actually, when you hodl, it's fun to watch the price while getting in touch with (mostly) nice people.
Nobody here is responsible for the forum structure and namings, by the way.

Alternatively:
Follow the thread and find out  

[JayJuanGee]

after the pain many people will sell into a new uptrend and will part from their coins forever. Blackrock will be happy

That is a third way (or perhaps just part of the 1st way described below?)^** that newbies and/or low coiners and/or no coiners get discouraged (and take actions) in their failure/refusal to adequately prepare themselves financially for UP.

1) sell too many BTC too early... so the sub-category of this would be that if guys had bought bitcoin then they sold too many coins too early on the way up, then the BTC price corrects and they feel like geniuses because they had sold, but still fail/refuse to buy back on the dip since waiting for further dip.. and perhaps the market recovers and they fail to buy or alternatively if they had bought, then they sell on the second round of the BTC price going up.. but then the BTC price keeps going up after that second sell (profit taking), even by then they sold most if not all of their coins, so even if they might have had started out as a low coiner, then may end up as even a lower coiner or even ending up as a no coiner because they end up psychologically blocking themselves from getting back into bitcoin, since who wants to buy back into bitcoin at prices that are higher than the prices of their earlier sales?  There are quite a few variations of these selling too many coins too early scenarios, and maybe they don't screw up their portfolio in one round, yet their ongoing insistence on selling ends up putting them into a wrong state of mind and never really having enough coins because they are always selling at some point soon after they buy, even some of them might end up making 50%, 70% or maybe even 2x profits.. but then they do not even fare as close to the guy who had largely held onto his coins and went through multiple doublings of the BTC prices, and so compounding upon compounding upon compounding of the BTC value that he had been ongoingly holding through the ups and downs in the BTC prices.

and

2) fail/refuse to sufficiently buy. Anything else need to be said about this guy?  Perhaps he continues to wait for a dip?  A dip that never comes sufficiently enough to his liking, and he would have had been way better off to just ongoingly buy, but instead he is worried about dips and that he might have had been able to buy at cheaper prices.  Counseling such a guy to just get started and to buy at any price does not seem to work, since the guy remains scared to pull the trigger and press the buy button.  These guys tend to be ongoingly scared of buying the top, and they don't want to look foolish for buying the top, yet they ongoingly look foolish for failing/refusing to get started and establishing a system of ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying.

**Edited my above two examples.

Hello everyone, I’m back!
After a long, involuntary pause it simply wasn’t emotionally viable to stay on the forum following the unforeseen economic event that forced me to liquidate everything a few years ago. Little by little, I’m getting back on my feet financially, with fewer resources and a zero balance in BTC, but I hope that with small purchases and just HODL, I’ll be able to recover something even a tiny portion of BTC.

I’m absolutely thrilled for all of you, seeing that the price levels we talked about years ago have finally been reached… and surpassed!
(And yes, I confess — with healthy envy — for missing the 100k party… but genuinely happy for you all!)

I still firmly believe in BTC, of course, and time has proven that we were not wrong. A big hug to everyone still here!
I’ll try to update the List of Exchanges since 2011 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5090869.0

Today I started buying a bit of BTC again — this is my first purchase. I have a long way to go to get back to where I was.

#StrongHats

Welcome back.

Do what you can in terms of buys, and try to buy weekly for at least 4 years without even thinking about the price, and then reassess where you are at after 4 years to figure out if you might need to make any significant tweaks to what you are doing or just that you continue to stay with weekly buys.

it can take a couple of cycles or more to really build up a reasonably-sized bitcoin stack and also to be able to hang onto such stack by making sure that we are otherwise not going to have to sell any of our coins at a time that is not of our own choosing, which means we need to build and practice strong cashflow management systems/practices that include back up funds.

Can you guys stop being depressive all the time? This is not what I signed up for. Be better.

If you are still hung up on the cycle theory look back. In 2017 it went down from $7000 to $5850 or so in November around 16% decrease. In 2021 as well but the dates are more moved because the peak was reached in November and not in December like 2017.
When am I going to see some positive posts and fun ones?

And that's why I am buying dippppp!

you know like that song 'don't fear the reaper'
my new lyrics are 'don't fear the dipper'

Sirazimuth?
Are you there?
 
EDIT: Now it got me too  

Worst bull-run ever.

After reading this i was singing (in my mind):
"wake me up when this bull run ends"

by the well known sound of Green Day's "Wake me up when September ends".

There is another popular (rock pop) "wake up" song from the 80s.. by Wham.  "Wake me up before you go go."

2018 BTC crashes to 3k
2023  2022 BTC crashes to 16k
2025 2026 BTC crashes to 104k  ?
 
next year we will hear BTC crashes to 500k
HODL  

Your basic numbers are wrong, and yeah I get your point about the lack of severity in the crash.. but you are likely reading too much into a supposed crash and comparing it to prior crashes, since we might not know the crash for the cycle, yet.  Right now we merely have a correction that might end up extending itself into crash status.. yet we are not at a point of "crash" yet.  We should not let others create our framework or fail to recognize/appreciate the numbers and/or timelines in order to make a factually accurate framework to support the point that we might be trying to make in a hopefully convincing (and hopefully? factually accurate) way.

You think it is over now?
Me thinks not

We will be back hitting new all time highs within a few years, I am certain of it but yes, the bull run is over.

You wanna bet?

Oh wait?

Aren't you that one guy?

 


 

You think it is over now?
Me thinks not

We will be back hitting new all time highs within a few years, I am certain of it but yes, the bull run is over.

you seem so sure, you should sell everything and buy back lower, no?

hahahahahaha

You are correct.

The level of whine coming from LFC is becoming so great, and even getting up to "irritation" levels.

I would suppose that since he (LFC) sold some decent chunk around $120, he does likely have a bit of a dilemma regarding when (or if?) to buy back in... so now he seems to be rooting for down in order to hit some kind of a target buy back in price.. Ie talking his book to some extent.. .. so it seems, even though, yeah, he likely has some belief in what he is saying, too.  Go figure?

Sequans (SQNS) just became the first Bitcoin treasury company to sell their Bitcoin at a loss. They sold off 970 bitcoins to pay down convertible debt, calling the decision a “tactical move given current market conditions.”

What market conditions are they talking about? Will we see more treasury companies start dumping at a loss now?

Yeah but so what?  Are the sales from weak-handed and overextended treasury companies going to be enough to change the direction of the bitcoin market or just cause them to end up being the same or similar to mindrust in March 2020 and/or Germany in September-ish 2024 (or similar OgNasty's sub $60k selling of BTC in late 2024 to buy a Cybertruck)?

Sure, in the aggregate a lot of small players can add up to a lot, yet I doubt that we are (yet) at that point in the cycle of the market.

But hey whatever, your milage may vary.

[BobLawblaw]

Oh look! Bitcoin is on sale!!!

[goldkingcoiner]

OT:
People, people, people!

Forgive me if i'm being too emotional this time.
I think i told you i will try Amanita Muscarina (aka. Fly Agaric) as dried powder, didn't i?
I got the order in the mail today.

I'm currently on about 80mg since 6 hours. The onset was barely noticeable, after about 45 minutes.
No visual effects, no spaced-off thoughts, no sensational feelings.

BUT:
1. Impulse control
2. Focus (!)
3. A feeling of inner peace
4. Earworms totally disappeared (i needed a few hours to notice that, though)
5. Details no more screaming at me for recognition (and dealing mentally with them), just taking notice of some.

I was able to communicate with one family member, while three other ones were chatting and Netflix was on, too. Situations like this were always a noisy mess to me before, i couldn't "hear myself talking", making conversations impossible.

Seems like this is finally a success. It's like cocoa on steroids, and also less hard hitting plus longer lasting than Ritalin (so far).
I will wait until my mind is running wild again and then continue with an even lower dose (50mg).
I also think i can feel the first time what it actually means to be satisfied.

I haven't even checked the BTC price since a couple of hours, until i followed up on the WO and Buddy helped me out  

EDIT: mistyped something

EDIT2: No urge for coffee. Feels unusual, but fine.

This is the first step to 80X leverage trading by accident.

Although psylocibin is way safer and more enjoyable (I assume), I heard the trip from Muscarina is like being drunk and dizzy. Is that true?

Have a good trip! Tell us when you peak so we can start posting trippy gifs.

[OutOfMemory]

After reading this i was singing (in my mind):
"wake me up when this bull run ends"

by the well known sound of Green Day's "Wake me up when September ends".

There is another popular (rock pop) "wake up" song from the 80s.. by Wham.  "Wake me up before you go go."

I can easily defeat this earworm-attack today, Jay  
OOM on steroids (not exactly steroids, but better)

[OutOfMemory]

OT:
People, people, people!

This is the first step to 80X leverage trading by accident.

Not in this life  

Although psylocibin is way safer and more enjoyable (I assume), I heard the trip from Muscarina is like being drunk and dizzy. Is that true?

It's microdosed (roughly 80mg on my 1/10 gram scale). 1000mg or more would be needed for a trip.
EDIT: I never felt clearer, but sharper, mindwise. It's also a bit slowing (slightly meditative). Seems like i used to think at full throttle ever before. Game changing.

Have a good trip! Tell us when you peak so we can start posting trippy gifs.

It feels like the peak for 4 hours straight already, pretty much like LSD (but not as intense in any way).
It's medication, though, but i always like trippy gif's  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I am dipping just about 100k

do we go lower.

I am ready thank god for orange man tariffs.

copper and silver went way up letting me be ready for dip dip dip

[JayJuanGee]

you seem so sure, you should sell everything and buy back lower, no?

With 24% capital gains it’s too much of a risk. I sold enough Bitcoin for six years of life expenses. In hindsight I should have sold more over 120k but I thought we would hit at least 150k this year.

Love to be wrong but this looks like frustrated OG’s and four year cycle believers dumping due to lack of bullish price action. It’s causing severe selling pressure. I think the bull run is over.

Clearly I hope it’s not as I become significantly wealthier with uppity price action. I just say what I see though without bias.

Selling 6 years of living expenses seems to be enough.. and probably even more than enough, even though the subsequent price action does seem to be working in your favor regards to what you did.. so no need to be greedy in terms of various points that you might decide to buy back in (if you might go down the buying back route at some point).  It seems to me earlier that you were expecting something like a 50% drop before buying back in, and that seems overly greedy to me, even though sure, you can exercise your judgment regarding how to handle your "freed up cash" however you like..

and yeah, based on your disclosure about 24% for tax ramifications, I recognize that it may well be the case that you would you need to get at least 24% drop just to break even, so maybe to account for those kinds of calculations (if they are accurate), you might have to set some kind of threshold that might require 34% or more of a price drop (from your sales point) to start to buy back some portion of the amount that you sold.. and surely those are practical kinds of calculations and/or considerations that likely vary with people in terms of their jurisdiction and/or their tax status and/or possible write-offs.

This could end up being one of those situations (again) of love/hating LFC all at the same time.  

But, yeah, it can surely be helpful to hedge sometimes and even have that hedge work out - even if it might just be a temporary relief that provides insurance that might not end up needing to be claimed.

Even in my own situation maybe we can say that I had authorized up to 10% sales of my bitcoin since 2015, yet I had largely been exercising quite a bit less than 5% sales, and since the BTC price doubled more than 8 times (close to 9 times if it would have had hit $128k - absent the most recent correction that brings us a bit less than half way back down the last (the 9th) doubling)(you can see my The Power of compounding value discussion for a framework of the underlying facts)... so then there has been a lot of pent up lack of sales in my own holdings that have been allowed to compound upon themselves over those past 8/9 doubling events since 2015.

Several of us folks who have been in bitcoin around 10 years or longer who had mostly been accumulating and/or HODLing during that time would have been advantaged by the compounding value that had been taking place in the past 10-ish years, even if we had not completely established our stack prior to 2016.  The compounding value numbers are just different (and smaller) if the starting point was in 2016 or thereafter, and surely I am not even proclaiming that guys are able to establish their bitcoin position in a timeframe of less than 4 years, so many times, it would have had taken 4 years or longer just to establish a bitcoin position, even if we came into bitcoin prior to 2021 (or 4 years prior to 2021).

Just one month ago in early October:

Analysts Stand By Lofty Year-End Forecasts
In early October, Citigroup projected a year-end Bitcoin price of approximately $133,000, conditional on continued ETF inflows and increased demand from DAT firms. Standard Chartered offered an even higher forecast, predicting Bitcoin could hit $200,000 if weekly ETF inflows maintain the $500 million level.

Similarly, JPMorgan projected a year-end price of $165,000, arguing that Bitcoin was undervalued relative to gold. Goldman Sachs also looked to gold for a reference point, suggesting that if gold were to reach $5,000 per ounce, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $220,000.

► https://news.superex.com/articles/8245.html

People here are so strange. There was a time when this kind of performance was celebrated. Now if number does not go up all the time, panic and despair.  

Get the fuck out of here with your WRONG characterizations about what is going on in this thread and/or with OGs on the forum..

Stop making shit up and repeating it over and over as if it were true (we have seen that bullshit in the past where newbies come to the thread and try to tell us what is happening as if they were some kinds of detached and neutral observer, and their simplified nonsense is not even true).



Guys are not panicking any worse than they ever panic.

There is always some sense of negativity, panic, and pissed-offed-ness that happens with any BTC price correction and/or any failure refusal of bitcoin to go straight up to the moon.

We do not have any higher level of negativity at this particular point than we have had in other BTC price corrections, even if you keep repeating it, as if our current level of negativity (negative sentiment) were some kind of a new thing.  At certain points in the past, we even had members (or was it just one) hiding under the cupboards with chocolate on their (his) face.

[edited out]

Some of the OG people here are strange in more ways than just that!  

Watch out because some of these assholes will jump on you like a gang of fucking thugs.

You come off as butt hurt and bitter.

Please show on the doll where you were hurted.

 

[Paashaas]

Oh look! Bitcoin is on sale!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

you seem so sure, you should sell everything and buy back lower, no?

With 24% capital gains it’s too much of a risk. I sold enough Bitcoin for six years of life expenses. In hindsight I should have sold more over 120k but I thought we would hit at least 150k this year.

Love to be wrong but this looks like frustrated OG’s and four year cycle believers dumping due to lack of bullish price action. It’s causing severe selling pressure. I think the bull run is over.

Clearly I hope it’s not as I become significantly wealthier with uppity price action. I just say what I see though without bias.

Bull run? What bull run? I didn't notice there was one. 

Anyway, it seems I missed the third cycle top in a row (2017, 2021, 2025). I hold my bags and will keep holding for at least 4 more years. I still have some hope that we are wrong and the top is still ahead of us (November? December?) there's still a chance...

[serveria.com]

Oh look! Bitcoin is on sale!!!

Looks more like Breakdown phase to me 

[bitserve]

Oh look! Bitcoin is on sale!!!

Looks more like Breakdown phase to me  

Yup.

Either that... or maybe just a shake-out!

Your pick.

[BitHodlers]

People here are so strange. There was a time when this kind of performance was celebrated. Now if number does not go up all the time, panic and despair.  

Get the fuck out of here with your WRONG characterizations about what is going on in this thread and/or with OGs on the forum..

Stop making shit up and repeating it over and over as if it were true (we have seen that bullshit in the past where newbies come to the thread and try to tell us what is happening as if they were some kinds of detached and neutral observer, and their simplified nonsense is not even true).



Guys are not panicking any worse than they ever panic.

There is always some sense of negativity, panic, and pissed-offed-ness that happens with any BTC price correction and/or any failure refusal of bitcoin to go straight up to the moon.

We do not have any higher level of negativity at this particular point than we have had in other BTC price corrections, even if you keep repeating it, as if our current level of negativity (negative sentiment) were some kind of a new thing.  At certain points in the past, we even had members (or was it just one) hiding under the cupboards with chocolate on their (his) face.

What are you talking about dude? People are panicking and saying that the bull run is over for days. That is not negativity? They are actually positive? 

[Young_Croatian]

Okay, what is the reason for the fire sale?

Bought more, because why not.

[Biodom]

Well, S. Bessent said that some sectors are in recession.
It is possible that mr. Market is trying to convince J. Powell to definitely cut on Dec 10 (current chance 64-70%) and maybe give a 0.5% cut (current chance: 3 %).
If markets go down 10% or more beforehand, it (-0.5%) might happen.

EDIT: factually, bitcoin is in a bear market right now (by the classical definition of >20% off the top).
The only question is whether it is a short term bear or the 4-year cyclical bear.
I think it is the former, but we shall see.

[Young_Croatian]

Well, S. Bessent said that some sectors are in recession.
It is possible that mr. Market is trying to convince J. Powell to definitely cut on Dec 10 (current chance 64-70%) and maybe give a 0.5% cut (current chance -3 %).
If markets go down 10% or more beforehand, it (-0.5%) might happen.

That's all the fuss about??? Where are the old days of CHINA BAN?