Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Hey, this new troll, BTCETFyouknowhoimean, after being kinda forced to read some of his posts through quoted replies, reminds me a LOT of another xxxx we had here, i think until last bear market. The language, the black/white scheme of thinking about people, and especially the "you-are-all-liars-narrative" made me think of Cryptotourist. I think that was the one, but i have to admit, that i'm not 100% sure if it's the right nickname i seem to remember.
@Cryptotourist, @WO's: If it wasn't you/him, i am deeply sorry for my mistake. Does somebody think to know who i mean?

Not that i would stubbornly want to go down the rabbit hole, btw.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Hey, this new troll, BTCETFyouknowhoimean, after being kinda forced to read some of his posts through quoted replies, reminds me a LOT of another xxxx we had here, i think until last bear market. The language, the black/white scheme of thinking about people, and especially the "you-are-all-liars-narrative" made me think of Cryptotourist. I think that was the one, but i have to admit, that i'm not 100% sure if it's the right nickname i seem to remember.
@Cryptotourist, @WO's: If it wasn't you/him, i am deeply sorry for my mistake. Does somebody think to know who i mean?

Not that i would stubbornly want to go down the rabbit hole, btw.

OOM - You mean ole 'Cryptotourist" who said; 'I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass ... and I'm all out of bubblegum.'?

[BTCETFInvestor]

[Snip]

What's new with you Cryptotourist?  

Our friend OOM has brought you back to life - - as me!  

Hahaha  He's the same old dipshit idiot!    

Hey, this new troll, BTCETFyouknowhoimean, after being kinda forced to read some of his posts through quoted replies, reminds me a LOT of another xxxx we had here, i think until last bear market. The language, the black/white scheme of thinking about people, and especially the "you-are-all-liars-narrative" made me think of Cryptotourist. I think that was the one, but i have to admit, that i'm not 100% sure if it's the right nickname i seem to remember.
@Cryptotourist, @WO's: If it wasn't you/him, i am deeply sorry for my mistake. Does somebody think to know who i mean?

Not that i would stubbornly want to go down the rabbit hole, btw.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

Sometimes I wish I could give negative merit to people, and after a certain number of negative merit, they are no longer able to post in this thread.

Ignore just isn't effective enough.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Sometimes I wish I could give negative merit to people, and after a certain number of negative merit, they are no longer able to post in this thread.

Ignore just isn't effective enough.

Only sometimes, BLb?

[Hueristic]

JJG - I don't know why the nice and considerate good people here put up with your shit...  

Maybe he's just L33T?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BayAreaCoins]

Come on $30,000 white Christmas... Bring these blow stamps back to a kilo... which actually maybe higher now that the USA Military is smoking boats.

$60,000?  A few South Americans and a blow-up boat for 2x a market is a pretty good deal in my book...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

A bit tired to go out tonight (too much exercise yesterday, body aching). So I thought of crunching some more numbers. Latest Bitstamp day historical data, starting from 17 December 2017 (the dramatic post-fork ATH) up until 7 November 2025 (yesterday). I plotted the spot price throughout that period (almost 8 years), and marked all ATHs with orange circles, and an orange line showing how long each ATH lasted. I then plotted the difference between the spot price and the ATH preceding it (bottom, red graph). This shows the inter-ATH dips that have occurred throughout the 8-year period.



Now, the question is: will there be another BIG and LONG dip starting in 2026, like the one shown in the red graph, which starts in 2022 and ends in mid-2024? The years fit (2022 + 4 = 2026).

I will concede that from time to time, there can be value in regards to focusing on short periods, especially in what you are seeming to be intending to focus on recent history with a kind of underlying presumption that recent history is more important (since bitcoin is maturing as an asset class so then newer dynamics are likely more important than some of the dynamics that might not have had been present in earlier times), yet it seems that your overall points are probably not hurt by adding the earlier cycles - perhaps even potentially allowing for cutting off of the data prior to 2013 or something like that... bitcoin is ongoingly growing and adding more and more new players as various aspects of its network effects (the network effects outlined by Trace Mayer) continue to grow.

My data source does not go so far back as 2013. Still, I could have included some more data from mid-2014 onwards. Somehow I feel that the December 2017 ATH was the first major, truly significant ATH in the history of Bitcoin. I'm kind of drawn to it, and often use it as a reference. Going to $10? Nice. $100? Very nice. $1000? Yeah! But $20k, now that was a feeling I'll never forget! Again, this is just my feeling. Nothing more than a feeling...

If this happens, then LFC_Bitcoin is right and we'll soon be entering into another BIG and LONG dip, which could last until mid-2028, after the next halving. History often repeats itself, but Bitcoin is so predictably unpredictable that anything can happen.

You seem to be arguing that we should be taking history with a pretty BIG ass grain of salt, even though history can provide some parameter guidelines for us to consider in regards to what is within the realm of possible - which truly seems to be problematic in regards to rigidity in thinking that bitcoin has to do something (such as crash) within a certain timeline..

We can say that 4 year cycles exist and don't exist at the same time.. I know guys want to get worked up about whether or not the 4-year cycle pattern is going to disappear or that we have to follow such cycle with precision.

Almost no matter what, we are not going to have enough information, until after the fact.. after the market actually crashes (versus a  mere temporary correction) we might be able to say after the fact that the market crashed because x, y or z where right now x, y and/or z are not really known in terms of their specifics.. they are merely inferred in a general kind of way.. and so far we have seen that generally some kind of a blow off top has had to have had taken place in order for a correction to be justified, but then when the 2021 blow off top ended up being a way smaller version than expected, then we looked at the data and noticed the level of depravity, degenerate gambling, leverage, rehypothication that was going on, and then we realized that maybe the top could not have had gone any further without some of that froth being flushed out of the system..

And, so right now, we might not really know the level of leverage in the system - yet surely it is quite likely that even the market does not necessarily resolve all injustices, since it is probably the case that sometimes the degenerates end up winning with their gambling plays and they do not end up getting flushed out within this particular part of the market cycle. .or in this particular wave..  There are likely examples in history where undeserving people and undeserving technologies end up prevailing due to how matters played out.. not that I am suggesting that even bitcoin itself is any of those things  - since bitcoin is protocol layer and then we have a lot of players betting on top of it and through it.

[...]

I don't know. I hope that the 2022-2024 inter-ATH dip in the above chart does not repeat in t+4 years (which is about now). If it does, then we're in for a 2-year-long dip, until the next halving. But, again, this is just some pattern in a chart that's not guaranteed to repeat. I'm a pattern seeker by nature, so I can't ignore it, but I also know how unpredictable Bitcoin can be in the short or even medium term, so I don't give it too much attention. Even if it happens, it's OK, I wasn't planning on selling anyway. So, I'll wait it out. It will just be an added delay in Bitcoin's upward path. The 200-WMA will keep rising, albeit a little slower. But if the dip doesn't happen, and UPpity is resumed in 2025 or early 2026, then all the better for all of us.

It's always a win-win when you've already won!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[El duderino_]

Sometimes I wish I could give negative merit to people, and after a certain number of negative merit, they are no longer able to post in this thread.

Ignore just isn't effective enough.

Then again who would decide which WO'ers to be the ones able to....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I took you off ignore to watch you and jjg have a net fit fight.

It's like mud-wrestling with a pig.

Many of us are likely familiar with the expression.

 

back to topic. will we go back up before Dec 1 Set a new high in Jan 1 top it again in February 2026. and show up OgNasty

or is he correct and we are hosed and 55k  is just around the corner.

$55k seems a bit extreme, and it could be that OgNasty is merely trying to be dramatic in order to make a point, which I would imagine many of us consider him to be a bit much when it comes to suggesting that there is some way to have certainty about the extent of the drop.

It sure could be possible that our already existing local bottom of $98,898 could end up already being a sufficient bottom, yet it would not be any more bearish than it already is to have another test of our curren t$98,898 bottom and perhaps even go as low as $90k-ish.. before returning in the UPpity direction.. and that would surely shake a few more weakhands who are teetering on this superficial theory that the "the top is already in."

I could also end up breaking down after such additional test, since there could be some more froth to flesh out from our October 10th liquidations.. .so maybe there are 35% or perhaps close to 40% or so odds of breaking down after some kind of a retesting of our current local bottom rather than resuming into a grinding up kinds of a scenario.  

JJG - I don't know why the nice and considerate good people here put up with your shit...

Maybe he's just L33T?

hahahahaaha..   I had not even noticed that.

[edited out]

It's always a win-win when you've already won!

That's part of the thing that tends to be so difficult for the low coiner, the no coiners and the overly whimpy accumulator guys to realize that a certain amount of ongoing building up of the bitcoin stash will likely end up in later having some kind of a price cushion between our costs per BTC and the current price.. and even after a while the 200-WMA will end up being way higher than our costs per BTC... so then at that point the investment has already won, even if the amout of profits might still be fluctuating in seemingly large ways, relatively speaking  

There seems to be a lot of "already won" built in for guys who have somewhere close to a couple of cycles and beyond, and surely I had been saying that if some of the guys had built most of their stack prior to 2021, there are decently good odds that he will feel like he is in the already winning camp.. as long as he had been mostly erroring on the side of buying and holding and not fucking around with trading and any sales were either relatively small or done in a spend and replace kind of a way.

I acknowledge that even a guy who did most of his stacking prior to 2021, he likely would have had needed a couple of years of stacking at least.. but yeah, I hate to be overly presumptive, except that I know that it tends to take long time to build a bitcoin stash, even if a guy might have some abilities to invest from other savings and the reallocation from other investments besides merely relying on income from his regular job, since it is fairly rare for guys to both have a lot of discretionary income and also be focused enough to invest high amounts of it (especially into something like bitcoin).