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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26912995 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
BitHodlers
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November 14, 2025, 11:02:11 PM

Maybe it is some random, chaotic market.
Certainly, it used to be that btc movement "controlled" other coins, but not anymore..there are notable persistent exceptions.

I am just hanging out and observing, ignoring the 'paper losses' so far and looking at the prices once or twice a day only.
When there is a lot of money around, creating exceptions is quite easy. It is meaningless.. More money, more scammers, more manipulation but the same old tactics.
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November 14, 2025, 11:27:44 PM

Maybe it is some random, chaotic market.
Certainly, it used to be that btc movement "controlled" other coins, but not anymore..there are notable persistent exceptions.

I am just hanging out and observing, ignoring the 'paper losses' so far and looking at the prices once or twice a day only.
When there is a lot of money around, creating exceptions is quite easy. It is meaningless.. More money, more scammers, more manipulation but the same old tactics.

sheet, man...I just want the number to go up, that's all.
last 10 mo were kind of annoying, but OK if you want to develop your "hodling" muscles.
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November 14, 2025, 11:45:52 PM

The crazy part about today’s losses are that Strategy is currently buying with $700+ million dollars raised from the STRE offering. Saylor confirmed this during an interview this morning. It looks a lot like this market and Strategy are cooked. I don’t see how Saylor doesn’t get sued by his shareholders for all his preferred offerings at this point. Hopefully he has some of that $700+ million earmarked for a weekend pump…
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November 15, 2025, 12:01:15 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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November 15, 2025, 12:04:42 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Oh, lets not be a hypocrite here, there was always the option to change it so why did you feel the need to FORCE the change on unsuspecting people that don't change defaults and were perfectly happy with the way it was?

Hold up, dumb fuck.  I don't work on Bitcoin core and I didn't to anything to anyone except comment on a forum pointing out why I think it appears to be a good idea.  If you've got a problem with that you can go screw yourself with a chainsaw.

As far as the default being different in a new version: Major miners already deactivated the op_return restriction and failing to relay transactions that *will* get mined wastes bandwidth, royally fucks block propagation, and incentivizes direct miner submission.  The later of the two cause centralization pressures.  To the extent that the residual restriction was doing anything it was encouraging fake pubkey outputs that fuck up the UTXO set. Of course, no one is required to run that version or any other version for that matter, and no one is stopped from changing the setting or reverting the patch or making any other behavior change they personally want.

Quote
And did you tell them this setting would allow increased spam to be stored on their systems?

That would be literally untrue, use of opreturn *decreases* the space available for spam compared to popular methods-- so opreturn use is effectively an incremental block size reduction. And also practically untrue because major miners had already removed the op return limit.

But also the release notes clearly documented the change and there was also a public announcement about the defaults change.

Quote
I'm no lawyer but this could even be liable.
I have no horse in this race but I see the shady tactics you guys are using because I am not a shill nor a child.

If you were either of those your profound ignorance would be more excusable.  Instead you're just a moron and harming the world with your vile idiocy.

My personal choice to defend bitcoin has already caused me to get targed by idiots like you with now more than a *trillion* dollars in lawsuits.  You're deluded if you think you can intimidate me this way.
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November 15, 2025, 12:20:23 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2025, 02:27:32 AM by BTCETFInvestor

Why is there a sudden divide on the future expectations and outcome for Bitcoin?

The sudden divide in future expectations for Bitcoin is driven by the conflicting influences of traditional macroeconomic factors and liquidity concerns, versus the historical significance of supply dynamics like the halving and growing institutional adoption. This has created a clash between short-term bearish sentiment and long-term bullish outlooks.

Bearish Arguments (Concerns for a Decline):

• Macroeconomic Headwinds: Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with other risk assets like tech stocks and has become more sensitive to broader economic conditions. Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policy and global liquidity tightening due to factors like a U.S. government shutdown can pull funds away from riskier assets and into safer, yield-bearing alternatives, pushing Bitcoin's price down.

• Institutional Outflows and Profit-Taking: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently experienced significant outflows, suggesting a period of capital flight and profit-taking by some institutional investors and long-term holders ("OG" investors) who typically sell at market cycle tops.

• Historical Cycle Patterns: Some analysts argue that the historical four-year market cycle (peak followed by a significant bear market) is still in play and that the recent all-time high may have marked the cycle top.

• Regulatory Uncertainty: A fragmented and evolving global regulatory landscape, with potential for stricter rules or taxation on crypto assets, introduces significant risk and can dampen market sentiment.


Bullish Arguments (Expectations for Continued Growth):

• Shrinking Supply Dynamics: The most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024 further reduced the rate at which new bitcoins are created, creating a supply shortfall if demand remains steady or increases. This fundamental scarcity, combined with an ultimate cap of 21 million coins, underpins the long-term bullish case.

• Maturing Institutional Adoption: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has facilitated massive institutional investment, absorbing a significant amount of the available supply. Bulls argue that this points to growing mainstream acceptance and a transformation into a more stable, mature asset class, even if short-term volatility exists.

• "Digital Gold" Narrative: In an era of high inflation and global political tensions, advocates believe Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive hedge against inflation and a store of value, similar to gold.

• Technological Developments: Ongoing innovations like the Lightning Network are addressing issues of scalability and transaction speed, making Bitcoin more efficient for potential daily use and increasing its overall utility.

Ultimately, the market is grappling with whether Bitcoin is a cyclical, volatile risk asset tied to broader economic sentiment or a maturing, scarcity-driven store of value with a strong, long-term growth trajectory.
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November 15, 2025, 12:30:14 AM

Why is there a sudden divide on the future expectations and outcome for Bitcoin?

The sudden divide in future expectations for Bitcoin is driven by the conflicting influences of traditional macroeconomic factors and liquidity concerns, versus the historical significance of supply dynamics like the halving and growing institutional adoption. This has created a clash between short-term bearish sentiment and long-term bullish outlooks.

Bearish Arguments (Concerns for a Decline):

• Macroeconomic Headwinds: Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with other risk assets like tech stocks and has become more sensitive to broader economic conditions. Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policy and global liquidity tightening due to factors like a U.S. government shutdown can pull funds away from riskier assets and into safer, yield-bearing alternatives, pushing Bitcoin's price down.

• Institutional Outflows and Profit-Taking: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently experienced significant outflows, suggesting a period of capital flight and profit-taking by some institutional investors and long-term holders ("OG" investors) who typically sell at market cycle tops.

• Historical Cycle Patterns: Some analysts argue that the historical four-year market cycle (peak followed by a significant bear market) is still in play and that the recent all-time high may have marked the cycle top.

• Regulatory Uncertainty: A fragmented and evolving global regulatory landscape, with potential for stricter rules or taxation on crypto assets, introduces significant risk and can dampen market sentiment.


Bullish Arguments (Expectations for Continued Growth):

• Shrinking Supply Dynamics: The most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024 further reduced the rate at which new bitcoins are created, creating a supply shortfall if demand remains steady or increases. This fundamental scarcity, combined with an ultimate cap of 21 million coins, underpins the long-term bullish case.

• Maturing Institutional Adoption: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has facilitated massive institutional investment, absorbing a significant amount of the available supply. Bulls argue that this points to growing mainstream acceptance and a transformation into a more stable, mature asset class, even if short-term volatility exists.

• "Digital Gold" Narrative: In an era of high inflation and global political tensions, advocates believe Bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive hedge against inflation and a store of value, similar to gold.

• Technological Developments: Ongoing innovations like the Lightning Network are addressing issues of scalability and transaction speed, making Bitcoin more efficient for potential daily use and increasing its overall utility.
Ultimately, the market is grappling with whether Bitcoin is a cyclical, volatile risk asset tied to broader economic sentiment or a maturing, scarcity-driven store of value with a strong, long-term growth trajectory.

Is this written by you? It looks like a source was not quoted.

But it is well written.
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November 15, 2025, 12:46:01 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Oh, lets not be a hypocrite here, there was always the option to change it so why did you feel the need to FORCE the change on unsuspecting people that don't change defaults and were perfectly happy with the way it was?

Hold up, dumb fuck.  I don't work on Bitcoin core and I didn't to anything to anyone except comment on a forum pointing out why I think it appears to be a good idea.  If you've got a problem with that you can go screw yourself with a chainsaw.

As far as the default being different in a new version: Major miners already deactivated the op_return restriction and failing to relay transactions that *will* get mined wastes bandwidth, royally fucks block propagation, and incentivizes direct miner submission.  The later of the two cause centralization pressures.  To the extent that the residual restriction was doing anything it was encouraging fake pubkey outputs that fuck up the UTXO set. Of course, no one is required to run that version or any other version for that matter, and no one is stopped from changing the setting or reverting the patch or making any other behavior change they personally want.

Quote
And did you tell them this setting would allow increased spam to be stored on their systems?

That would be literally untrue, use of opreturn *decreases* the space available for spam compared to popular methods-- so opreturn use is effectively an incremental block size reduction. And also practically untrue because major miners had already removed the op return limit.

But also the release notes clearly documented the change and there was also a public announcement about the defaults change.

Quote
I'm no lawyer but this could even be liable.
I have no horse in this race but I see the shady tactics you guys are using because I am not a shill nor a child.

If you were either of those your profound ignorance would be more excusable.  Instead you're just a moron and harming the world with your vile idiocy.

My personal choice to defend bitcoin has already caused me to get targed by idiots like you with now more than a *trillion* dollars in lawsuits.  You're deluded if you think you can intimidate me this way.


LOL, did I hit a nerve?

Stopped reading when you turned full retard.

You've been losing alot of respect lately.
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November 15, 2025, 01:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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November 15, 2025, 01:15:42 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

OK. I take back being bored of $100k USD/BTC
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November 15, 2025, 01:37:39 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

The damage is done
Shedding a crocodile tear
Futile repentance



#haiku
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November 15, 2025, 01:45:25 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

The damage is done
Shedding a crocodile tear
Futile repentance



#haiku


Well I would like to see 123,456.78

And sideways.

Mostly trumps btc bump is  fading bigly many markets moving all over the place.
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November 15, 2025, 02:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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November 15, 2025, 02:26:25 AM
Merited by Biodom (1)

[edited out

So is it up or down for now for the next few months?

My hands are very itchy and hot.
Is it time to do DCA again or do we need to wait for another decline?

You have been here since April 2017 bangjoe (that is more than 2 whole cycles, congratulations). I would imagine that you have been already able to get a decent amount of coin through the years, and some guys will transition from a DCA strategy and into a buy the dip strategy after they have mostly already accumulated a decently good-sized stash.

Sure, there are some other guys that proclaim that you can never get enough bitcoin, so perhaps some of those guys would just keep DCAing, yet I suspect that guys who say that you can never get enough bitcoin, they likely have not considered the matter well enough, since I can think of a variety of scenarios in which a guy might have had gotten enough or more than enough bitcoin, especially guys who have been able to accumulate bitcoin for more than a couple of cycles, which seems to be your timeline bangjoe.

Maybe it is some random, chaotic market.
Certainly, it used to be that btc movement "controlled" other coins, but not anymore..there are notable persistent exceptions.

I am just hanging out and observing, ignoring the 'paper losses' so far and looking at the prices once or twice a day only.

You must have a lot of will power.  Many of us cannot resist watching a train wreck, even if it is our own.

Maybe it is some random, chaotic market.
Certainly, it used to be that btc movement "controlled" other coins, but not anymore..there are notable persistent exceptions.

I am just hanging out and observing, ignoring the 'paper losses' so far and looking at the prices once or twice a day only.
When there is a lot of money around, creating exceptions is quite easy. It is meaningless.. More money, more scammers, more manipulation but the same old tactics.
sheet, man...I just want the number to go up, that's all.
last 10 mo were kind of annoying, but OK if you want to develop your "hodling" muscles.

It is not like there is anything that the majority of us "bagholders" can do.

Perhaps some guys who sold some on the way up or even on the way down, they might be trying to figure out when to buy back.

Others might be figuring if they want to buy more, but if they already bought more in the last couple of years or even they bought whatever extra in 2022, 2023, and 2024, they might not really be in the mood to be continuing to buy more, even though we have something like a 25% drop so far (lookin at $93,961 that was touched upon right around 1 hour ago, as I type this post) since our October 6 high of $126,272.

There surely are some guys that get frustrated and they sell on the way down with a hope of buying back cheaper, and that does not necessarily work out very well.  Selling on the way down tends to be a bad practice, unless you can figure out how and when to do it early and to end up being correct, which seems challenging at best and I think that many guys here don't tend to admit to employing those kinds of sell on the way down kinds of tactics - even though perhaps some guys end up engaging in such sell on the way down kinds of tactics out of nervousness, which I think any of us who have already structured buys on the way down, then we would likely cancel our buy orders on the way down prior to actually employing sell on the way down tactics.. Surely I don't recommend getting into such a dilemma of a pickle situation.

The crazy part about today’s losses are that Strategy is currently buying with $700+ million dollars raised from the STRE offering. Saylor confirmed this during an interview this morning. It looks a lot like this market and Strategy are cooked. I don’t see how Saylor doesn’t get sued by his shareholders for all his preferred offerings at this point. Hopefully he has some of that $700+ million earmarked for a weekend pump…

Aren't you the smartest creature that ever did walk this earth.

Shareholders will frequently sue CEOs, yet the standard would need to show a high level of eggregious behavior rather than whether the BTC price might go up or down.

I would imagine that Saylor has structured his matter to be able to tolerate somewhere in the ballpark of a 70% drawdown and even such a drawdown that might last a year or two, so I doubt that he is easily cooked, even though we might end up witnessing some of the other bitcoin treasury companies coming into dire difficulties, whether they have any debts that they need to service or if they might have had been depending on their share prices going up... but sure, it is possible that Saylor (MSTR) might end up screwing this up.. perhaps? perhaps?  We should not be presuming even a 50% or greater drop to be something that "for sure" will happen.  a 50% drop from our current top would bring BTC prices to right around $63k.. which I understand is not impossible, but it does seem to be a bit of a long shot - never say never... but still.

[edited out]
I'm no lawyer but this could even be liable.
I have no horse in this race but I see the shady tactics you guys are using because I am not a shill nor a child.
If you were either of those your profound ignorance would be more excusable.  Instead you're just a moron and harming the world with your vile idiocy.

My personal choice to defend bitcoin has already caused me to get targed by idiots like you with now more than a *trillion* dollars in lawsuits.  You're deluded if you think you can intimidate me this way.

That does not sound good.

If you are receiving lawsuits, without seeing their supposed basis, that comes off as ridiculous, and hopefully, you are getting assistance in going through the legal process, since frequently it will be expensive to defend lawsuits, even if such lawsuits may well not have any solid legal basis.. or  even sometimes they are bordering on frivolous and/or a way to purposefully harass.
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November 15, 2025, 02:47:23 AM

The crazy part about today’s losses are that Strategy is currently buying with $700+ million dollars raised from the STRE offering. Saylor confirmed this during an interview this morning. It looks a lot like this market and Strategy are cooked. I don’t see how Saylor doesn’t get sued by his shareholders for all his preferred offerings at this point. Hopefully he has some of that $700+ million earmarked for a weekend pump…

Aren't you the smartest creature that ever did walk this earth.


Indeed... Wink
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November 15, 2025, 03:01:07 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1)

Unfortunately...my 'guessing' the last couple months is correct..or should I say 'dread' of such?


Recession Starting

1) Folks have little assets to tap into, cc maxed, biz is having issue with Tariffs, etc, house no HEL to dip into...already working 2 jobs...thus real life

issues with 24/7 access and current 23% credit card is due...you sell BTC/Crypto due to 24/7 access and no other real options.

2) Next (guess) is the stock market corrects because rich,poor, biz, everyone is over extended on this whole 'economy' in a bubble. Thus BTC could

go even lower...$18k farmland around me (with Soy Bean 'no sale' crisis most of the year) will end some farms driving price down etc, etc,etc.

3) Those in the 1% will then move their sights to playing with the stock market to the buying of assets due to this hopefully BTC but for sure

real estate, land, gold, fixed rate loans, etc.

4) It always takes 2-3 years (my own bet is longer) for all this to shake out back to the new normal...but again I'm guessing

I've been through probably 4 recessions or so in my life..so it is rinse/wash/repeat and HODL.

5) like the pandemic...the 1% in the next few years will bleed another $1 Trillion in dollars away from the rest of us...like they did when people panicked

with the Pandemic of 2020...buying assets from the panic of the bubble going boom as per usual.

again, this is pretty much predicable above..I just hope the cycle with BTC/Crypto continues as it has in the past on the first to recover (though in the past

BTC has been shown to go sideways for years in some manner...or so it seems....anyway..(btc: you merciless bitch!) Smiley

again, (guess) how I see it ..if I"m wrong I'm pleasantry surprised..if I am right at least I can shrug an say it is ..soooooo 2025. Smiley

edit: though this recession, IMHO, is going to deeper and longer then those in the past....(shudder) so hunker down and HODL boys and/or buy more btc

it is gonna get really, really ugly for the next few  years society wise...I do hope that BTC does become the 'store of value' it should to be the 'one' bright

light in all of this..but again..BTC does like its' sideways' and down movement in such times.

again< i know zip..just how I'm approaching this

again, would really like to be dead, dead wrong on above...tut  to me seems to be the usual pattern before a recession (major IMHO) in this case

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November 15, 2025, 03:01:15 AM


Explanation
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November 15, 2025, 03:40:45 AM

Hold up, dumb fuck...you can go screw yourself with a chainsaw.
...you're just a moron and harming the world with your vile idiocy.

Things I didn't expect to see Greg Maxwell saying on a public forum.  

You probably need to step away for a bit my friend.  Take it from me, even if you are just stating the truth to correct the lies of crazy people, it will only make you look bad.  People will believe what they want to believe regardless of the truth, or you telling them the truth.  People on this very thread are mad at me for telling everyone to take profits at $117K and still trying to perform mental gymnastics to convince themselves I was wrong.  LOL

This isn't a stand on OP_Return either.  I am not for it.  I just don't like it when folks like Greg Maxwell fall down into the pit of despair with the rest of us.  Nothing but trolls here friend.  The only way to win is not to play.

Looks like BTC is recovering a bit!  Maybe we see $100K again before it slips away...
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November 15, 2025, 03:58:50 AM

Hold up, dumb fuck...you can go screw yourself with a chainsaw.
...you're just a moron and harming the world with your vile idiocy.

Things I didn't expect to see Greg Maxwell saying on a public forum.  




Lol, probably a bad day to private message Greg... at least I didn't get told to fuck myself with a chainsaw... small victories! Cheesy



Can we all agree that giving these Wall Street fellas a nice shakeout might not be a horrible thing?

Looking to buy Bitcoin when it hits $10,000 again.  Cool Grin Kiss
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November 15, 2025, 04:01:13 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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