Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.

By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

That's like saying that because of the law of averages, if you just tossed nine heads, your next is likely to be tails. Or that if the last block was ten minutes ago, the next block is imminent.

[Paashaas]

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is broken, and this time, data proves it

Data shows that BTC’s “average annual returns have gradually declined, with no peaks at all in the last cycle, confirming the hypothesis that Bitcoin's risk/return structure has changed.”

Cointelegraph

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Bitcoin Whales Are Accumulating

► https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-whales-accumulating-does-mean-133011741.html

[goldkingcoiner]

I wish I had the ability to stay calm and not panic when I was a newbie. This dip is only making me hungry for more Bitcoin. I feel no fear of monetary loss.

[CheapYoutubeHits]

LOWER PLZ THANKS

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bestcandy]

I wish I had the ability to stay calm and not panic when I was a newbie. This dip is only making me hungry for more Bitcoin. I feel no fear of monetary loss.

It was not long since I started investing in Bitcoin and as such this bearish period would have make me to panic but the series of encouragement I got from those of you that are old in the system has given me more courage to leverage this bearish period to buy more Bitcoin to my investment portfolio. And going by my research about the volatility of Bitcoin I strongly believe that there is light at end of the tunnel and we shall soon experience bull run so I'm not panic instead I will still buy more Bitcoin and hold it for long term which I strongly believe will give me good return on investment in the future.

[cAPSLOCK]

Here is an interesting vid from Ben Cowen 5 years ago (price was at 15K).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxZQPc2IYa4

Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.

By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).

Conclusion: Since all financial things considered numbers for bitcoin price at or above 100k are more likelier than 10-29K, Bedford's law would suggest that regaining numbers that start with 1 (or even 2) would be more likely than not.

In Ben's example, the number of times bitcoin was at a price starting at 1 or 2 was in about 35% cases and 8 and 9 only in about 14% cases (about 2.5X difference).

I like our projected 71.42% chance for regaining vs about 28.58% chance for having a price that starts with 8 or 9.

Let's see how this reference to Bedford's law pans out.

That video completely short-circuited my brain. It might as well have been astrology.

[Biodom]

Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.

By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

That's like saying that because of the law of averages, if you just tossed nine heads, your next is likely to be tails. Or that if the last block was ten minutes ago, the next block is imminent.

btctalk ate my long post, darn it.

Of course, we cannot predict what comes next, but my analysis of the last 5 years (Nov 16 2020 to Nov 16 2025) shows that daily prices that started with 1 and 2 were about 10 times more often than prices that started with 8 or 9 (about 41% vs 4.6%) in a perfect fit to Bedford's law. There were a couple of strange deviations: an abnormally lower number of "7"-only 1.4% (and a bit of a bump in "6").

Here are the numbers (first number on the left, % of daily closings with a price that starts with the number on the left):
1-20.14%
2-20.90
3-13.68
4-14.12
5-8.87
6-12.64 (bump)
7-1.42 (plunge)
8-2.96
9-1.64

I now understand why prognosticators choose numbers like 130, 140, 200 OR 1mil, but rarely 600 or 900K.
It's just more likely, somehow...but it looks like magic at a first glance.

I may analyze the 2015-2025 set later.

EDIT: going forward and then looking back, it seems that this law predicts that in the long time sets with varying prices, there will be more occasions of prices starting with 1 and 2 than 8 and 9. The prices themselves are, of course not predictable by this law.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[asUHWEceyc]

thing is, larry doesn't want to spook anyone important.

[cAPSLOCK]

thing is, larry doesn't want to spook anyone important.

Larry should chill.

[Biodom]

Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.

By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

That's like saying that because of the law of averages, if you just tossed nine heads, your next is likely to be tails. Or that if the last block was ten minutes ago, the next block is imminent.

btctalk ate my long post, darn it.

Of course, we cannot predict what comes next, but my analysis of the last 5 years (Nov 16 2020 to Nov 16 2025) shows that daily prices that started with 1 and 2 were about 10 times more often than prices that started with 8 or 9 (about 41% vs 4.6%) in a perfect fit to Bedford's law. There were a couple of strange deviations: an abnormally lower number of "7"-only 1.4% (and a bit of a bump in "6").

Here are the numbers (first number on the left, % of daily closings with a price that starts with the number on the left):
1-20.14%
2-20.90
3-13.68
4-14.12
5-8.87
6-12.64 (bump)
7-1.42 (plunge)
8-2.96
9-1.64

I now understand why prognosticators choose numbers like 130, 140, 200 OR 1mil, but rarely 600 or 900K.
It's just more likely, somehow...but it looks like magic at a first glance.

I may analyze the 2015-2025 set later.

EDIT: going forward and then looking back, it seems that this law predicts that in the long time sets with varying prices, there will be more occasions of prices starting with 1 and 2 than 8 and 9. The prices themselves are, of course not predictable by this law.

2015-2025 data (3624 daily closings; again-first digit of the price on the left, percentage of closings-on the right):
1-20.6%
2-12.48
3-11.44
4-13.38
5-7.53
6-13.96
7-6.40
8-6.13
9-8.02

A little smoother, but still a "bump" at 6 and a "plunge" at 7.
1+2=33.08%, but 8+9=17.15%, almost a 2X difference.

Not sure why bitcoin in the last 10 years had more than 2x probability of ending a day with a price that started with 6 vs the price that started with 7.
A mystery. Interestingly, a "bump" at 6 is also visible in the 2009-2020 dataset:
https://youtu.be/GxZQPc2IYa4?t=398

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Bedford law...says that in a series of numbers (like a series of price numbers), you would much more likely to have the price starting with 1 or 2 and much less likely to have a number that starts with 8 or 9.

By this thesis, it is more likely for bitcoin to recover from the current numbers to a number at or above 100K (or alternatively, drop as low as 10-29k-this is just from math perspective, NOT a prediction).

I'm pretty sure that's not how that works.

That's like saying that because of the law of averages, if you just tossed nine heads, your next is likely to be tails. Or that if the last block was ten minutes ago, the next block is imminent.

btctalk ate my long post, darn it.

Of course, we cannot predict what comes next, but my analysis of the last 5 years (Nov 16 2020 to Nov 16 2025) shows that daily prices that started with 1 and 2 were about 10 times more often than prices that started with 8 or 9 (about 41% vs 4.6%) in a perfect fit to Bedford's law. There were a couple of strange deviations: an abnormally lower number of "7"-only 1.4% (and a bit of a bump in "6").

Here are the numbers (first number on the left, % of daily closings with a price that starts with the number on the left):
1-20.14%
2-20.90
3-13.68
4-14.12
5-8.87
6-12.64 (bump)
7-1.42 (plunge)
8-2.96
9-1.64

I now understand why prognosticators choose numbers like 130, 140, 200 OR 1mil, but rarely 600 or 900K.
It's just more likely, somehow...but it looks like magic at a first glance.

I may analyze the 2015-2025 set later.

EDIT: going forward and then looking back, it seems that this law predicts that in the long time sets with varying prices, there will be more occasions of prices starting with 1 and 2 than 8 and 9. The prices themselves are, of course not predictable by this law.

2015-2025 data (3624 daily closings; again-first digit of the price on the left, percentage of closings-on the right):
1-20.6%
2-12.48
3-11.44
4-13.38
5-7.53
6-13.96
7-6.40
8-6.13
9-8.02

A little smoother, but still a "bump" at 6 and a "plunge" at 7.
1+2=33.08%, but 8+9=17.15%, almost a 2X difference.

Not sure why bitcoin in the last 10 years had more than 2x probability of ending a day with a price that started with 6 vs the price that started with 7.
A mystery. Interestingly, a "bump" at 6 is also visible in the 2009-2020 dataset:
https://youtu.be/GxZQPc2IYa4?t=398

oh my fucking god

6 7

holy the source of

6 7

[vapourminer]

Wait, am I still asleep or have we actually reached the Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi level of this battle?

yeah

i know that, like, we are all Satoshi (except that guy.. fuck that guy) but ngl Epstein wasnt on my bingo card

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com