Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCETFInvestor]

I am definitely super guilty for prophesying the waning influence of the four-year cycle too early.

There are so many reasons for the cycle to diminish in its impact.  The most obvious just being the psychology of it. Once an exploit is known, then clever people will exploit it until it's gone.

I'm not so sure I believe the psychology of it is going to diminish it's impact.  You make a good point about it being exploited once known, but if you look around at the community all you see is people saying the 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore.

If I am Blackrock, I am already making sure that 4-year cycle stays in tact no matter what.  If they want to pump Bitcoin to the moon in 2029 and get all those sweet management fees and a nice exit, they're going to need to convince the masses the 4-year cycle still exists.

The impact only looks diminished if you're looking at % and not amount.  This has been the largest increase in value trough to peak over any 4-year period in Bitcoin's history yet people are saying that this cycle was a dud...

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

The four year halving cycle event needs to be forgotten about, but that view needs some help from the experts to explain why it's no longer an important feature event, nor is it good for investors of Bitcoin.

The four year halving cycle event is an irrelevant happening that shouldn't be a factor in the price of Bitcoin or a predictor of the price.  The four year halving cycle event is no more important to determine Bitcoin's price than is the repeating summer-winter weather cycle...     

Additionally, with nearly 95% of the total Bitcoin supply already mined and the new issuance being relatively small compared to total trading volume, the marginal supply reduction has a much smaller impact on the overall market.

[OgNasty]

I am definitely super guilty for prophesying the waning influence of the four-year cycle too early.

There are so many reasons for the cycle to diminish in its impact.  The most obvious just being the psychology of it. Once an exploit is known, then clever people will exploit it until it's gone.

I'm not so sure I believe the psychology of it is going to diminish it's impact.  You make a good point about it being exploited once known, but if you look around at the community all you see is people saying the 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore.

If I am Blackrock, I am already making sure that 4-year cycle stays in tact no matter what.  If they want to pump Bitcoin to the moon in 2029 and get all those sweet management fees and a nice exit, they're going to need to convince the masses the 4-year cycle still exists.

The impact only looks diminished if you're looking at % and not amount.  This has been the largest increase in value trough to peak over any 4-year period in Bitcoin's history yet people are saying that this cycle was a dud...

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

The halving will have less and less of an effect moving forward just because the value of the reduced reward will be less and less. This cycle was sort of the turning point. The block reward halved and the price less than doubled this cycle for the first time resulting in truly less impact going forward. Some people will call this the 4-year cycle having less of an effect, others will call it diminishing returns. I call it a maturing market. Blackrock will call it an opportunity to manipulate, at least that’s my hope for another glorious exit point in 2029.

[Biodom]

I am definitely super guilty for prophesying the waning influence of the four-year cycle too early.

There are so many reasons for the cycle to diminish in its impact.  The most obvious just being the psychology of it. Once an exploit is known, then clever people will exploit it until it's gone.

I'm not so sure I believe the psychology of it is going to diminish it's impact.  You make a good point about it being exploited once known, but if you look around at the community all you see is people saying the 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore.

If I am Blackrock, I am already making sure that 4-year cycle stays in tact no matter what.  If they want to pump Bitcoin to the moon in 2029 and get all those sweet management fees and a nice exit, they're going to need to convince the masses the 4-year cycle still exists.

The impact only looks diminished if you're looking at % and not amount.  This has been the largest increase in value trough to peak over any 4-year period in Bitcoin's history yet people are saying that this cycle was a dud...

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

Exactly...what cycle when production is just 45mil/day and the trading volume is more than 2000 times higher?
The amount of increase from trough to peak has nothing to do with halvings, except for a psychological pressure, which is being reinforced by stubborn OGs like some people around here.

I am looking forward to a time when these "halving bears" would be defeated, once and for all.

EDIT: BTW, Ben Cowen was the one that was continuously harping on this market timing/halving theme. Now, that has he made a major error by predicting a VB coin rally to 5500 instead of it plunging to 2900 (a 90% difference), perhaps he would learn a lesson that ALL predictions based on prior behavior are fallacies, or random at best.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Searing]

1. Can Saylor be liquidated? There is a chance.
2. Can an economic calamity aka Depression happen? There is a chance.
3. Can $ hyperinflate considering that we have $36 tril in debt. There is a chance.

I take my chances, you take yours.

My take:

1. maybe 5% chance
2. maybe 10% chance
3. maybe 1% chance

On all the above ...the bet for me is Bitcoin HODL. IF Bitcoin is a 'store of value' still better long term then the flood of $$$ in the finance system for 2) and 3)

above. Also IF, as I suspect, Bitcoin will survive. Due to its 'structure' and limit of 21 Million BTC, well, an 'asset' if it survives, recession, depression or whatever

even if ONLY due to inflation...will always 'eventually' get back to the ATH of the asset.

Anyway, how I see it. Scarcity and the process of POW and the rest on Bitcoin, as such, means no 'hands....mucking up or tweaking to their advantage by adding

worth or $$$ when times gets tough. Bitcoin: No Responsible Adult of Finance *according to powers that be* can 'tweak' it or 'add more btc' to stabilize the 'annoying'

volatility and/or wutg 66% of Bitcoin as

such owned by others then biz/corps or ETFs. Just Individuals.

As long as BTC stays 'annoying aloof' to the powers that be in finance as such...I'm still gonna HODL like I have

since 2015..and likely add btc dust as it goes along...boom or doom...the only game in town and the world gets weirder IMHO.

this is on 2) and 3) above as to 1) above....the BTC would have to go someplace even if it was a fire sale at that time.

[Searing]

That is all he can do. So he likely will buy this weekend too right? Not sure if you were trying to have a gotcha moment there or what… He keeps saying he can’t be liquidated, but he sure as hell can send his stock price to $0, get sued, lose, be forced to sell his BTC, and crash the market. Dumb people (you know who you are) think he can’t be liquidated. Anyone with a brain realizes he can be forced to sell by a judge and most likely will after a painful legal battle if his stock price continues to plummet.

I think his Bitcoin holdings are already in good profit and he can sell some of his Bitcoins to cover up loses for his company (if that happens)?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-won-t-face-bitcoin-104308331.html


quote:

According to analyst Willy Woo, Strategy faces approximately $1.01 billion in debt maturing on Sept. 15, 2027. To avoid selling its Bitcoin holdings for repayment, MSTR stock must trade above $183.19. This level roughly corresponds with a Bitcoin price of around $91,502, assuming a multiple net asset value
(mNAV) of 1.Nov 5, 2025

unquote:

So Micro Strategy is fine if BTC is around $92k on Sept 15th, 2027 or so this article claims from 11/5/2025

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I think we bottom out close to here could be a dramatic wick down still in the cards.

It wasn't very dramatic. I wonder if that was it.

nah. we are going close to or under 80k this week.

but that is still just a correction.

126x.63=79.38  a 37% correction but then upwards and onwards. for all of 2025 and most all of 2026 which will finally and definitely show that 4 year cycles are done.

Basically if BTC stays locked into 4 year cycles it's shit as there are no longer real reasons for 4 year cycles other than moron believers of it. (not a stab at you og).

With the amount of coins mined if humans are going to stubbornly stick into outdated beliefs like a 4 year cycle BTC is doomed to fail. Personally I would like to think there are enough of us that realize the 4 year cycle time is over and we are in the process of becoming a butterfly so to speak. Shedding the cocoon of the 4 year cycle is just a bit shaky with orange man around adding to our struggles.

tariffs anyone. 

I think everyone here knows by now that you like Trump a lot...

But why 37%?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I think we bottom out close to here could be a dramatic wick down still in the cards.

It wasn't very dramatic. I wonder if that was it.

nah. we are going close to or under 80k this week.
but that is still just a correction.

Oh gawd.. 

You still have not learned how to lessen your dogmatism?  You must just love to be wrong, so you just keep doubling down when you get some inkling of momentum you start to presume that you got it all figured out?

126x.63=79.38  a 37% correction but then upwards and onwards. for all of 2025 and most all of 2026 which will finally and definitely show that 4 year cycles are done.

You cannot resist, right?  Like a character flaw.

 

After a while, it might be considered as an endearing characteristic since you want to get so specific so that ultimately you are going to end up being wrong.. so in the end, you love being wrong?

Of course, you won't be able to admit that you were wrong.. .. just like your recent flat assertions... and yeah, you are probably not going to give up on those either.

Basically if BTC stays locked into 4 year cycles it's shit as there are no longer real reasons for 4 year cycles other than moron believers of it. (not a stab at you og).

At least your intentions are good to beat up on Og.. since he seems to be a worthy one... even though he is smarter than all of us put together and even that he is likely the real non-reported highest IQ person in bitcoin, in spite of the recent article that we had seen on such topic.

With the amount of coins mined if humans are going to stubbornly stick into outdated beliefs like a 4 year cycle BTC is doomed to fail. Personally I would like to think there are enough of us that realize the 4 year cycle time is over and we are in the process of becoming a butterfly so to speak. Shedding the cocoon of the 4 year cycle is just a bit shaky with orange man around adding to our struggles.

tariffs anyone. 

Nothing wrong with having guidance.. such as the 4-year cycle, even if it might get extended out into 2026.. and sure no longer be a 4-year cycle.. but having to see how it plays out to see how we might consider the modifications.. we still likely need some ATH in either this calendar year or into the first or second quarter of 2026 before we start getting all cocky about the 4-year cycle being dead.  Of course, many folks following the bitcoin space are aware of the diminishing impacts of the mining rewards, so you hardly are making any original proclamations to recognize ways that the 4-year cycle is likely to be challenged in its showing up this time around... or during this particular bull market, to the extent that we have not yet fallen out of this current bull market.

at jjg I actually got a fill on kraken at 87.9k and 89.9k and 92.5k
but did not fill the
85.3
83.4
81.5
not sure why I got that 87.9k to fill but I am not complaining.

coinbase still has my account fucked up so I only do kraken for now.

For sure there can be exchange variance and even various fluke price movements on one exchange versus another, including some pairs might be less liquid than other pairs... so there could be a bit of randomness in regards to orders filliing in one place or another.. and sure I get a bit anxious when orders are very close to filling but  they do not end up filling up.. yet at the same time there remains a decent amount of emotional neutrality too.. .. even though maybe there are times that I might want to weigh a little more towards BTC or a little more towards cash.. .. and some times I might just have something going on in my personal life that might motivate me a little bit in one direction or another and say that I know that a bunch of expenses are coming up then I know that I will be removing some cash and transferring that cash to my spending account.. and yeah other times there is a bit of a bias that I want to pick up some extra BTC.. so yeah, sometimes the market might end up moving against my preference in that kind of a small way, yet there is still quite a bit of flexibility to either sell some extra BTC if I want to move move cash into my spending account or to buy a bit more BTC if I am getting the sense that it would be a small bit better to bias myself in the short-to-medium term in regards to having some extra BTC.. which sometimes will be in competition (or contradiction) with some other things that I am doing.. which I have a couple of accounts that spend bitcoin on a monthly basis no matter what.. sort of like a time based sustainable withdrawal.. so yeah, I can see a quantity that is being sold in those other accounts, and then I see what I am personally doing and so sometimes they will be biased in one direction or another, yet at the same time, I am way less anxious about any of those balancing matters (regarding how much bitcoin and/or cash that I might have) these days as compared to the level of anxiousness that I felt in 2016.

I recall that I used to do some direct exchanges of cash for bitcoin with some contacts that I had, and so then I recall that in 2019 or something like that (it was like right around the time of the bitcoin pump from $4,200 to $13,00).  i recall that I sold a guy soemthing like $500 worth of bitcoin... and so usually I would work on setting up some extra buy orders so that I could buy back the same amount that I sold or even to buy back 10% or 20% more, just because I had tended to be biased towards stacking more sats.. so like profits (to the extent that such a thing existed) would go towards buying more BTC... So then I recall that I did that transaction, and then I went to set my buy orders, and surely my buy orders never did fill since the BTC price pretty much went straight up for the next 3 months... so yeah, I was a wee bit more bothered back then as compared to now, and surely any of us who have been stacking bitcoin for a while, there is likely a certain level of zen that it does not really matter too much anymore.. since we are more or less happy either way... even though there can frequently be a sense of injustice if someone comes up to us and they say that they want to buy $500 worth of bitcoin, and maybe we say o.k.. .No problem, and maybe we might charge them a 3% or a 5% fee mostly based on a sense of justice and a sense that everyone needs to carry their own weight in terms of fair transaction fees.... and there were a few people who I had regretted telling them that I would sell them BTC for cash, but I would charge them the "going rate" for transaction fees (which was my sense of a fair transaction fee for them to get bitcoin in their wallet). 

current price of 93.3k is tolerable as my mining makes 2650 usd and burns 2400 usd which is just okay.
mining gets very hard to do if you go under it burn 2400 and earn 2300 = when do I stop.

All gear is paid.
and I add 0.00094 btc a day as a DCA mine.

I can do this up til August.
Or I could pay 1 month fee (2400) and about 1000 in shipping to get my gear back to sell on eBay.

this call would be easy to do if prices drop a lot more. I may do that and sell all the s21xp's on eBay.
I do not have to rush at this time.

I suppose with anything we will have our systems in place, and there will be some changes in the dynamics.. just like 2021 it was a great time to be a miner for those guys already set up, yet there were some guys who entered into mining in 2021, and they ended up having to pay a lot for their 2021 entrance, and they would have had been much better off to have had already been in mining prior to 2021 or at least at the beginning of 2021 as compared to getting into mining in order to get things set up by 2022.

[goldkingcoiner]

I think we bottom out close to here could be a dramatic wick down still in the cards.

It wasn't very dramatic. I wonder if that was it.

nah. we are going close to or under 80k this week.

but that is still just a correction.

126x.63=79.38  a 37% correction but then upwards and onwards. for all of 2025 and most all of 2026 which will finally and definitely show that 4 year cycles are done.

Basically if BTC stays locked into 4 year cycles it's shit as there are no longer real reasons for 4 year cycles other than moron believers of it. (not a stab at you og).

With the amount of coins mined if humans are going to stubbornly stick into outdated beliefs like a 4 year cycle BTC is doomed to fail. Personally I would like to think there are enough of us that realize the 4 year cycle time is over and we are in the process of becoming a butterfly so to speak. Shedding the cocoon of the 4 year cycle is just a bit shaky with orange man around adding to our struggles.

tariffs anyone.  

I think everyone here knows by now that you like Trump a lot...

But why 37%?

It's a funny mathematics joke, supposedly Gotta dig deep for the laughs though.

1/e ≈ 1 - 0.63 or also more commonly known as 1−1/e≈0.63

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

I think previously, people have underestimated the effect of supply shock and that, combined with FOMO has led to a lot of the run-up is the past. They thought it was priced in but it turned out it ultimately wasn't enough (Human beings have a very hard time with exponential curves too). People have a better handle on it now and while there is still the supply shock, it is much more accurately priced in. Probably there are higher quality models too.

[JayJuanGee]

I am definitely super guilty for prophesying the waning influence of the four-year cycle too early.

There are so many reasons for the cycle to diminish in its impact.  The most obvious just being the psychology of it. Once an exploit is known, then clever people will exploit it until it's gone.

I'm not so sure I believe the psychology of it is going to diminish it's impact.  You make a good point about it being exploited once known, but if you look around at the community all you see is people saying the 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore.

If I am Blackrock, I am already making sure that 4-year cycle stays in tact no matter what.  If they want to pump Bitcoin to the moon in 2029 and get all those sweet management fees and a nice exit, they're going to need to convince the masses the 4-year cycle still exists.

The impact only looks diminished if you're looking at % and not amount.  This has been the largest increase in value trough to peak over any 4-year period in Bitcoin's history yet people are saying that this cycle was a dud...

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

Whether or not the 4 year cycle exists and whether or not you believe in them existing, you still do the same thing.. which is to make sure that you have enough bitcoin, and it takes a long time to get to that point of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.

And your comment about bitcoin being a fail shows that you really need a bat-slappening.

You have been in bitcoin for 13 or maybe even 14 years, and you still have not recognized and appreciated the power of king daddy.

Come on... 

[insert JC spitting water scene here]

I think we bottom out close to here could be a dramatic wick down still in the cards.

It wasn't very dramatic. I wonder if that was it.

nah. we are going close to or under 80k this week.

but that is still just a correction.

126x.63=79.38  a 37% correction but then upwards and onwards. for all of 2025 and most all of 2026 which will finally and definitely show that 4 year cycles are done.

Basically if BTC stays locked into 4 year cycles it's shit as there are no longer real reasons for 4 year cycles other than moron believers of it. (not a stab at you og).

With the amount of coins mined if humans are going to stubbornly stick into outdated beliefs like a 4 year cycle BTC is doomed to fail. Personally I would like to think there are enough of us that realize the 4 year cycle time is over and we are in the process of becoming a butterfly so to speak. Shedding the cocoon of the 4 year cycle is just a bit shaky with orange man around adding to our struggles.

tariffs anyone.  

I think everyone here knows by now that you like Trump a lot...

But why 37%?

It's a funny mathematics joke, supposedly. Gotta dig deep for the laughs though.

1/e ≈ 1 - 0.63

I think that the point about how many bitcoin any normie might need is still valid since many of us likely realize that back around 2013, many guys were still shooting to get to 100 BTC.

but then that started to become unrealistic.

in around 2017 normies started to shoot for something like 21 BTC..

but then that started to get unrealistic

in around 2021, normies started to shoot for 1 bitcoin..

and many of us are coming to realize that 1 BTC is quit unrealistic.. so then what are the next goals?

21 million satoshis?  sure

10 million satoshis?  sure

soon it will be 1 million satoshis..

So it seems to me that if you meet your BTC accumulation goal, then you can consider any amount of BTC beyond your goal as excessive, and it also seems to me to feel better to reach and exceed your goal rather than having goals that you never are able to reach.

[philipma1957]

I am definitely super guilty for prophesying the waning influence of the four-year cycle too early.

There are so many reasons for the cycle to diminish in its impact.  The most obvious just being the psychology of it. Once an exploit is known, then clever people will exploit it until it's gone.

I'm not so sure I believe the psychology of it is going to diminish it's impact.  You make a good point about it being exploited once known, but if you look around at the community all you see is people saying the 4-year cycle doesn't exist anymore.

If I am Blackrock, I am already making sure that 4-year cycle stays in tact no matter what.  If they want to pump Bitcoin to the moon in 2029 and get all those sweet management fees and a nice exit, they're going to need to convince the masses the 4-year cycle still exists.

The impact only looks diminished if you're looking at % and not amount.  This has been the largest increase in value trough to peak over any 4-year period in Bitcoin's history yet people are saying that this cycle was a dud...

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

Exactly...what cycle when production is just 45mil/day and the trading volume is more than 2000 times higher?
The amount of increase from trough to peak has nothing to do with halvings, except for a psychological pressure, which is being reinforced by stubborn OGs like some people around here.

I am looking forward to a time when these "halving bears" would be defeated, once and for all.

EDIT: BTW, Ben Cowen was the one that was continuously harping on this market timing/halving theme. Now, that has he made a major error by predicting a VB coin rally to 5500 instead of it plunging to 2900 (a 90% difference), perhaps he would learn a lesson that ALL predictions based on prior behavior are fallacies, or random at best.

most not ALL

it depends a lot on many conditions.

if every condition is the same it will likely repeat.

but at the moment almost no conditions in 2025 matches the 2021 conditions.

How about miners were killing it in October and Nov 2021

maybe 15% or 20% was power cost so in terms of power a 60k coin was 9 to 12k

and now a 93k coins in terms of power is around 63k

huge fucking difference in conditions. a lot more besides that one.

rates were low low low
and the gov was giving money away.
plus inflation had not cranked up yet.


four huge differences.

As for how many coins can you get.

2 or 3 if you live in USA or Europe  Canada Japan New Zealand Australia Singapore is possible if you are under 40 as of today and start buying into it.

Its a general number but it can be done.

[BTCETFInvestor]

It is not that I do not believe in a four year cycle, I fear that people believing in it and sticking to it is terrible for BTC. There is not longer a good reason for it to exist. Other than rich motherfuckers are forcing to to stick around. If it continues to truly be a four year cycle BTC is pretty much a fail as it needs to grow out of its cocoon.

I think previously, people have underestimated the effect of supply shock and that, combined with FOMO has led to a lot of the run-up is the past. They thought it was priced in but it turned out it ultimately wasn't enough (Human beings have a very hard time with exponential curves too). People have a better handle on it now and while there is still the supply shock, it is much more accurately priced in. Probably there are higher quality models too.

I hope the four year cycle event is completely dismissed and the sooner, the better.

Bitcoin's maturity and institutional adoption is far more significant than the traditional 'halving' event. Price expectations based on the 'halving events have now run it course and is meaningless from now on - it needs to just be ignored and forgotten about...

Do people that want to keep the halving event front-and-center really think investors are going to want to be predicting the price outcome for each future halving event through the 33rd halving event in year 2140? No way!  Does historical dips and gains really mean anything worthwhile from this point onward? Not a bit!

The elimination of thinking about the four year cycle should start immediately. Investor's thinking about 'halving' only causes harm and volatility. Let bitcoin stand on its own as a mature asset instead of pushing it to be a predictable boom-and-bust pattern, which it no longer is... Let it seek a supply & demand value just like gold...

[Biodom]

OT...numerology

A fine-structure constant is ~1/137.
It's dimensionless (no physical units), but derives from:

The constant is a pure number, meaning it has no physical units (unlike the speed of light or Planck's constant). It is composed of a combination of other fundamental constants: the elementary charge of an electron (\(e\)), the speed of light (\(c\)), and the Planck constant (\(\hbar \)), arranged such that all units cancel out:\(\alpha =\frac{e^{2}}{4\pi \epsilon _{0}\hbar c}\approx \frac{1}{137.036}\)This has led physicists to believe it holds a deep, universal significance, independent of the measurement system used by any civilization in the cosmos.

Nobody ever came up with an explanation, it's just is, similarly to no explanation as to why bitcoin shows the deviation between historical prices that starts with 6 vs numbers that start with 7 (see my prior posts).

Back to bitcoin: I still think that numbers above 100K are likelier than 70K, but we shall see.
Re cycles...I am open minded, but they shouldn't exist any longer.

[philipma1957]

OT...numerology

A fine-structure constant is ~1/137.
It's dimensionless (no physical units), but derives from:

The constant is a pure number, meaning it has no physical units (unlike the speed of light or Planck's constant). It is composed of a combination of other fundamental constants: the elementary charge of an electron (\(e\)), the speed of light (\(c\)), and the Planck constant (\(\hbar \)), arranged such that all units cancel out:\(\alpha =\frac{e^{2}}{4\pi \epsilon _{0}\hbar c}\approx \frac{1}{137.036}\)This has led physicists to believe it holds a deep, universal significance, independent of the measurement system used by any civilization in the cosmos.

Nobody ever came up with an explanation, it's just is, similarly to no explanation as to why bitcoin shows the deviation between historical prices that starts with 6 vs numbers that start with 7 (see my prior posts).

Back to bitcoin: I still think that numbers above 100K are likelier than 70K, but we shall see.
Re cycles...I am open minded, but they shouldn't exist any longer.

look lots of things that should not be are. and BTC is still small enough to be fucked with.

So the 4 year cycle could be forced on us and price intentionally driven down to say 63k by some very rich fuckers.

But it will be costly to do so.

Personally I am ready for dip under 85k

but  I prefer mooning to over 120 and staying there with  an uptilt bias far into 2026

the worse case scenario for me is sideways at current price 92k to  say 85k

[xhomerx10]

I think we bottom out close to here could be a dramatic wick down still in the cards.

It wasn't very dramatic. I wonder if that was it.

nah. we are going close to or under 80k this week.

but that is still just a correction.

126x.63=79.38  a 37% correction but then upwards and onwards. for all of 2025 and most all of 2026 which will finally and definitely show that 4 year cycles are done.

Basically if BTC stays locked into 4 year cycles it's shit as there are no longer real reasons for 4 year cycles other than moron believers of it. (not a stab at you og).

With the amount of coins mined if humans are going to stubbornly stick into outdated beliefs like a 4 year cycle BTC is doomed to fail. Personally I would like to think there are enough of us that realize the 4 year cycle time is over and we are in the process of becoming a butterfly so to speak. Shedding the cocoon of the 4 year cycle is just a bit shaky with orange man around adding to our struggles.

tariffs anyone.  

I think everyone here knows by now that you like Trump a lot...

But why 37%?

It's a funny mathematics joke, supposedly Gotta dig deep for the laughs though.

1/e ≈ 1 - 0.63 or also more commonly known as 1−1/e≈0.63

 Dang!  I could have used that last night.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com