Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

32% drop so far...

2nd one this year, and 3rd one in 1.5 years

this time is different...?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[jahloverastaone]

This feels like a good place to buy.

Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.

it ain't over til the jingleheimer screeds

What does this even mean?

John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt maybe a knots dev? kek

[OgNasty]

Unlike a tech stock (i.e. NVDA) that can deliver good quarterly earnings and guidance of future growth that helps increase its stock price, Bitcoin is dependent on reduced availability and increased demand. That's a troubling spot to be in for Bitcoin to stand on its own like gold - because all we have that is driving Bitcoin's price up is; the four-year halving cycle and institutional/government/company and retail buying. If that buying fades the bottom is unknown...      

The halving cycle no longer has a significant impact, that is a relic of the past. The issued supply is simply too low compared to the existing, so the impact continues to decrease. Buying also comes and goes in waves, so I don't consider that an issue.

Gold is also considerably down from the ATH.

You have to be trolling…

Gold isn’t down at all. 1oz = 1oz.

See, I can do it too.

[asUHWEceyc]

This feels like a good place to buy.

Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.

it ain't over til the jingleheimer screeds

What does this even mean?

Wordyman writing (rather than singing) a lengthy postmortem should price slip below 80

gembitz?

[jahloverastaone]

This feels like a good place to buy.

Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.

it ain't over til the jingleheimer screeds

What does this even mean?

Wordyman writing (rather than singing) a lengthy postmortem should price slip below 80

gembitz?

yes i'm the real gembitz how we doing my squids?

[cAPSLOCK]

How are you guys doing? You feeling alive yet?

There's been something bothering me for months, actually several things. I'll get the little ones out of the way. I've already said it, but I would give an entire Bitcoin, if I could never hear, "by year end" price predictions again in my life.  Every year we get them and every year they are wildly wrong.

But the big thing that's bugging me is I keep hearing people say the same thing over and over.

"Retail never showed up this cycle."

What really bothers me about that statement is almost all of it is based on the past and we expect things to be just like they have been for the last 15 years.


First of all, what is retail anyway? We kind of have used that over the years to mean non Bitcoiners. These are the people that were convinced over some Thanksgiving meal by their nephew. These are the people who buy coins and leave them on exchanges.  And most of these people tend to buy the top and then get out.

In short, these are people that don't actually understand what Bitcoin is. These are people who are buying in to what they think is actually the best Ponzi scheme currently going. Maybe next to Nvidia.

They haven't figured out yet that Bitcoin is exactly what Christine Lagard said it was.  The escape valve.

I would say that the definition of retail is the same, but the people who keep saying the same thing over and over again are totally missing the forest for the trees, so to speak.

Retail showed up in the last couple years in the biggest way it ever has.  There are more people who have bought exposure to the Bitcoin price in the last couple years than probably in total for the rest of the assets lifespan. (I suppose I should actually do some math before I make dramatic claims like that, but you get what I'm saying, plus it might actually be true.)

Retail showed up in a big, big way.  

And the average IQ of the retail investor is probably lower than it ever has been.  Sorry, not sorry to be mean.

And now they are selling.   For many of them, this has been their first rodeo with the greater than 30+% pullback that Bitcoin so loves to bestow upon us.

All along, Bitcoin's volatility has been dropping because the people buying (and selling) Bitcoin on behalf of these retail morons are pros. This is, of course, assuming that they actually are buying it, which is truly an interesting question.

Finally, what we think of as the retail platforms... The front end of the big exchanges... lost a significant potential part of their customer base to the ETFs.  And if you've been in this forum for longer than a month, you've heard me say that the professional traders trading on behalf of their retail investors are clearly incentivized to control the prices on these exchanges.

Anyway, these thoughts just keep banging around in my truly strange and unusual noggin.

We are so lucky to be here.

[BitHodlers]

Unlike a tech stock (i.e. NVDA) that can deliver good quarterly earnings and guidance of future growth that helps increase its stock price, Bitcoin is dependent on reduced availability and increased demand. That's a troubling spot to be in for Bitcoin to stand on its own like gold - because all we have that is driving Bitcoin's price up is; the four-year halving cycle and institutional/government/company and retail buying. If that buying fades the bottom is unknown...      

The halving cycle no longer has a significant impact, that is a relic of the past. The issued supply is simply too low compared to the existing, so the impact continues to decrease. Buying also comes and goes in waves, so I don't consider that an issue.

Gold is also considerably down from the ATH.

You have to be trolling…

Gold isn’t down at all. 1oz = 1oz.

See, I can do it too.

I am not trolling. If you believe that the halving still has a significant impact then you have not learned much. Years don't give expertise.  

[Richy_T]

The halving cycle no longer has a significant impact, that is a relic of the past. The issued supply is simply too low compared to the existing, so the impact continues to decrease. Buying also comes and goes in waves, so I don't consider that an issue.

This is a fair assessment. People have got much better (in general) at keeping hold of their coins rather than throwing their wallet-holding PCs in the dumpster. I knew a dude who claimed to have solved lots of blocks fairly early but wiped the hard-drive. Then again, he was an inveterate liar so take with a pinch of salt.

I offered to scan his hard drive to see if I could recover any private keys but I think he was worried what I would find in his hidden folders.

The prelude to this slide was a bunch of coins being moved to 'addresses linked to exchange'. Did anything more ever come of that or was it the same old FUD?

[Richy_T]

First of all, what is retail anyway? We kind of have used that over the years to mean non Bitcoiners. These are the people that were convinced over some Thanksgiving meal by their nephew. These are the people who buy coins and leave them on exchanges.  And most of these people tend to buy the top and then get out.

I think this year, the ETFs meant a bunch of people bought in at reasonable prices then cashed out near the top (which was a bit lumpy and somewhat prolonged). They may turn out to have made smart moves too. We'll see.

[shahzadafzal]

If you aren’t enjoying this dip try something different 🤪🤪🤪🤪

[DaRude]

I continued my search, and it looks like about US 1% of the population works for minimum wage. But I assume that's mostly in sectors where tipping is mandatory, and that can easily add up to more than the wage itself. I can't say I'm a fan of this system though, it favours corporations instead of individuals.

Forgot about the tipping culture. I hate that about the US, I never know what is acceptable.

20% always with exceptions

Order at counter food/pick up/delivery 15%

I always do 25+% for haircuts

Fixed amounts for certain situations mostly travel related, valet room cleaning butler type duties etc

$5 dirty fiat in the us/1st world countries and 10$ everywhere else.

Trolley dollies 5$ starbs gift cards

15% at the counter and 20% for full service? So you're paying just 5% for someone to come to you, greet you, take your order at your table, bring food to you, come to you to follow up, and clean everything for you without you having to even stand up. wtf is 15% then for, for the girl just to punch in your order at the counter?

If I’m sitting down to eat im probably having more than one course, maybe some alcoholic beverages etc so the 20% of a larger number than an at a counter number is representative of that service when at a table

On the flip The tip at the counter bit, that’s usually split between the teller, the kitchen, the dishwasher etc etc, the amount is less than at a table since I can only carry so much.

If you have a fairer way of doing this I’m all ears!

Waiters get the full tip for providing good service, and all non customer interacting personnel get a proper wage. You know how it's always been

[DaRude]

If you aren’t enjoying this dip try something different 🤪🤪🤪🤪

That baby has a penis, how dare you to assume baby's sex, it needs to be a trans baby too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Unlike a tech stock (i.e. NVDA) that can deliver good quarterly earnings and guidance of future growth that helps increase its stock price, Bitcoin is dependent on reduced availability and increased demand. That's a troubling spot to be in for Bitcoin to stand on its own like gold - because all we have that is driving Bitcoin's price up is; the four-year halving cycle and institutional/government/company and retail buying. If that buying fades the bottom is unknown...      

The halving cycle no longer has a significant impact, that is a relic of the past. The issued supply is simply too low compared to the existing, so the impact continues to decrease. Buying also comes and goes in waves, so I don't consider that an issue.

Gold is also considerably down from the ATH.

You're right about about the halving being a relic of the past, but it still continues!

And yes, gold is down considerably over the past 5 days regardless what others may say - or by calling you a troll!

[bitcoinPsycho]

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  

[cAPSLOCK]

First of all, what is retail anyway? We kind of have used that over the years to mean non Bitcoiners. These are the people that were convinced over some Thanksgiving meal by their nephew. These are the people who buy coins and leave them on exchanges.  And most of these people tend to buy the top and then get out.

I think this year, the ETFs meant a bunch of people bought in at reasonable prices then cashed out near the top (which was a bit lumpy and somewhat prolonged). They may turn out to have made smart moves too. We'll see.

I totally agree with this. I am slightly jokingly saying that retail are morons. I don't think they really are, I just don't think much of who we call retail understands Bitcoin.

But I am not implying the inverse of that. In other words, I think there are plenty of smart people who buy the ETF shares.

I imagine there is a non-trivial number of early Bitcoiners who are sitting on gains that are terrifying to trust to a trezor or a cold card or something.  And I wouldn't blame them for seeking some form of custody from a trusted custodian, AKA a bank, basically.

I think I remember hearing that Plan B fellow who got so famous for his stock-to-flow theories moved his hoard into ETFs, specifically for the safety and advantages that offers him.

This is frankly always how it was going to be.  Those who self custody large amounts will always be a percentage and I would guess a minority.  Except in places where they don't have access to a real financial system.  And here comes the digital US dollar to serve them even better. Sigh.

So yeah, I'm sure there are a lot of savvy folks who are either holding through dips via things like the ETF or are actually good enough traders to ride it up, sell near the top, et cetera. That definitely exists.

But I think it's safe to also say that the vast majority of people who do not understand Bitcoin but want exposure to its volatility are ETF investors. Period.

[El duderino_]

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  

I even have less to say.

[jahloverastaone]

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  

face it we were pumping this dead horse corn from under $1000 and the hype is real but the real terror hits reality around ~$60K imho (; lets gooooooooo

[bitebits]

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say 

I even have less to say.

That says a lot.