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February 03, 2026, 01:53:42 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26923258 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
bitcoinPsycho
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$150000 in one hour confirmed


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November 20, 2025, 07:13:17 PM

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  Tongue
cAPSLOCK
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November 20, 2025, 07:14:49 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


First of all, what is retail anyway? We kind of have used that over the years to mean non Bitcoiners. These are the people that were convinced over some Thanksgiving meal by their nephew. These are the people who buy coins and leave them on exchanges.  And most of these people tend to buy the top and then get out.


I think this year, the ETFs meant a bunch of people bought in at reasonable prices then cashed out near the top (which was a bit lumpy and somewhat prolonged). They may turn out to have made smart moves too. We'll see.

I totally agree with this. I am slightly jokingly saying that retail are morons. I don't think they really are, I just don't think much of who we call retail understands Bitcoin.

But I am not implying the inverse of that. In other words, I think there are plenty of smart people who buy the ETF shares.

I imagine there is a non-trivial number of early Bitcoiners who are sitting on gains that are terrifying to trust to a trezor or a cold card or something.  And I wouldn't blame them for seeking some form of custody from a trusted custodian, AKA a bank, basically.

I think I remember hearing that Plan B fellow who got so famous for his stock-to-flow theories moved his hoard into ETFs, specifically for the safety and advantages that offers him.

This is frankly always how it was going to be.  Those who self custody large amounts will always be a percentage and I would guess a minority.  Except in places where they don't have access to a real financial system.  And here comes the digital US dollar to serve them even better. Sigh.

So yeah, I'm sure there are a lot of savvy folks who are either holding through dips via things like the ETF or are actually good enough traders to ride it up, sell near the top, et cetera. That definitely exists.

But I think it's safe to also say that the vast majority of people who do not understand Bitcoin but want exposure to its volatility are ETF investors. Period.
El duderino_
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November 20, 2025, 07:16:09 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5)

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  Tongue

I even have less to say.
jahloverastaone
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November 20, 2025, 07:19:04 PM

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  Tongue

face it we were pumping this dead horse corn from under $1000 and the hype is real but the real terror hits reality around ~$60K imho (; lets gooooooooo
bitebits
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November 20, 2025, 07:21:42 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  Tongue

I even have less to say.


That says a lot.
asUHWEceyc
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November 20, 2025, 07:24:38 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Unlike a tech stock (i.e. NVDA) that can deliver good quarterly earnings and guidance of future growth that helps increase its stock price, Bitcoin is dependent on reduced availability and increased demand. That's a troubling spot to be in for Bitcoin to stand on its own like gold - because all we have that is driving Bitcoin's price up is; the four-year halving cycle and institutional/government/company and retail buying. If that buying fades the bottom is unknown...      
The halving cycle no longer has a significant impact, that is a relic of the past. The issued supply is simply too low compared to the existing, so the impact continues to decrease. Buying also comes and goes in waves, so I don't consider that an issue.

Gold is also considerably down from the ATH.

You're right about about the halving being a relic of the past, but it still continues!

And yes, gold is down considerably today regardless what others may say - or by calling you a troll!



Gold features an anti-halving property. When demand increases, machinery and fuel are marshaled to increase supply


at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames
bitcoinPsycho
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November 20, 2025, 07:25:01 PM

Nil desperandum.  

Looking forward to the next inevitable all time high  Cool
BitHodlers
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November 20, 2025, 07:32:27 PM

at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames
Price declined as a consequence of events from last month and Morgan Stanley stated today that they don't expect a December rate cut anymore. That was the trigger for an already unstable environment. Here you go..

https://markets.financialcontent.com/talkmarkets/article/marketminute-2025-11-20-morgan-stanley-reverses-course-drops-december-fed-rate-cut-forecast-amid-resilient-economy
jahloverastaone
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November 20, 2025, 07:36:28 PM

Nil desperandum.  

Looking forward to the next inevitable all time high  Cool

bitcorn mechanic and Luke assured me da real street demon money comes in when we crash through $10-$20K Wink weeeeeeeee
cAPSLOCK
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November 20, 2025, 07:36:59 PM

If you aren’t enjoying this dip try something different 🤪🤪🤪🤪



I find this horrifying. Because it could actually be real.  You can't really know whether that's a joke or not.  Even though it is obviously tongue in cheek (which I don't know that I want to use that phrase in this context), i'm pretty sure there are people ordering these things because they want to be able to give them a "loving embrace".

This has to be pretty close to the end of the world at this point.

bitcoinPsycho
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November 20, 2025, 07:47:49 PM

Nil desperandum.  

Looking forward to the next inevitable all time high  Cool

bitcorn mechanic and Luke assured me da real street demon money comes in when we crash through $10-$20K Wink weeeeeeeee

Welcome back  Cheesy
LFC_Bitcoin
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November 20, 2025, 07:48:26 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), BitHodlers (1)

What needs to happen for you to turn bullish again?

I’m mid to long term bullish, I have to be, most of my entire net worth is in Bitcoin. I just think it’s the end of the cycle, which magically (or not) has landed in Q4 of a post halving year again.

For me to be wrong (I hope I am) and turn short term bullish again, we’d need to reclaim 100k and trade above it before the end of Q1 2026. Maybe in that scenario I’d be wrong, the four year cycle would be dead and we’d power to multiple new all time highs in 2026. I really hope that’s what happens but I doubt it, I’ve seen this movie before.

at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames

I still think ETFs buy Paper Bitcoin, until proven otherwise.
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November 20, 2025, 07:55:26 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (6)

What needs to happen for you to turn bullish again?

I’m mid to long term bullish, I have to be, most of my entire net worth is in Bitcoin. I just think it’s the end of the cycle, which magically (or not) has landed in Q4 of a post halving year again.

For me to be wrong (I hope I am) and turn short term bullish again, we’d need to reclaim 100k and trade above it before the end of Q1 2026. Maybe in that scenario I’d be wrong, the four year cycle would be dead and we’d power to multiple new all time highs in 2026. I really hope that’s what happens but I doubt it, I’ve seen this movie before.

at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames

I still think ETFs buy Paper Bitcoin, until proven otherwise.

i handed out paper wallets to celebrities, and  they would just look at me funny Smiley  ~cool art bro <====
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November 20, 2025, 07:57:24 PM

i handed out paper wallets to celebrities, and  they would just look at me funny Smiley  ~cool art bro <====

Max Keiser?

Feel free to send me some.
ChartBuddy
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November 20, 2025, 08:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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November 20, 2025, 08:07:39 PM

Fuck and bollocks

That's all I have to say  Tongue

I even have less to say.

i get capitalism and believe in it bigly but man some things should not be developed, much less sold
Mihaylovic
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November 20, 2025, 08:09:35 PM



time is irrelevant. Only Bitcoin matters  Cool
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November 20, 2025, 08:18:27 PM

What needs to happen for you to turn bullish again?

I’m mid to long term bullish, I have to be, most of my entire net worth is in Bitcoin. I just think it’s the end of the cycle, which magically (or not) has landed in Q4 of a post halving year again.

For me to be wrong (I hope I am) and turn short term bullish again, we’d need to reclaim 100k and trade above it before the end of Q1 2026. Maybe in that scenario I’d be wrong, the four year cycle would be dead and we’d power to multiple new all time highs in 2026. I really hope that’s what happens but I doubt it, I’ve seen this movie before.

at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames

I still think ETFs buy Paper Bitcoin, until proven otherwise.

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November 20, 2025, 08:25:34 PM

at caps: there were positive ETF flows yesterday but spot declined a few grand- which might just be an artifact of IBIT's T+1 reporting delay. Perhaps ETF activity doesn't even accurately reflect spot, at least not on higher time frames
Price declined as a consequence of events from last month and Morgan Stanley stated today that they don't expect a December rate cut anymore. That was the trigger for an already unstable environment. Here you go..

https://markets.financialcontent.com/talkmarkets/article/marketminute-2025-11-20-morgan-stanley-reverses-course-drops-december-fed-rate-cut-forecast-amid-resilient-economy

Yep, Bitcoin dropped drastically today due to a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, technical breakdowns, and panic selling triggered by delayed economic data and fading hopes for a Fed rate cut.
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November 20, 2025, 08:30:26 PM

Bitcoin continues to be a strong and promising investing, even if there has been a short term price drop of 30%..

Zoom out a wee bit to help ur lil selfie to assess dee cornz a wee bit better, if you don't know dee cornz very well.

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
30% drop in price couldn't be enough to assume Bitcoin is on a bear trend.
I have seen arguable conversations about Bitcoin going down more but interest should not be on the price but on future benefits.
What do you think about the current market?

Frequently the bitcoin market is difficult to decipher, and like always one the most important matters is for each of us to assess ourselves and where we are at in our own bitcoin accumulation journey.  An overwhelming quantity of normies do not have enough BTC.. so the current BTC market seems to provide an opportunity to buy more BTC for the same quantity of money, yet each person has to figure out their budget and figure out how much they are able to use to buy bitcoin, and figuring out the market likely does not even play a very strong role.. at least not for the newbie investor.

As we invest into bitcoin for a while and we accumulate more and more bitcoin, we may well get to a point that we feel that we have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, so price drops, like our current one, could end up inspiring someone to continue to buy BTC, even if he had been considering that he had enough or more than enough BTC.ear

You have a year and half in bitcoin, perhaps? going by your forum registration date.  How are you dealing with current BTC price dynamics?

That is not true.
Bitcoin continues to be a strong and promising investing, even if there has been a short term price drop of 30%..

Zoom out a wee bit to help ur lil selfie to assess dee cornz a wee bit better, if you don't know dee cornz very well.
 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
30% drop =  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Every (real) WO should read the fear/greed index reversed. 
Most newbies came here to learn, but some refused.
Their own fault, imo.
Learning is significant to knowledge acquisition. Flexibility still matters when relating to others opinions.
I gat everything you have passed here. Learning to get informed
[/quote]

Well there is learning and there is acting, and they can snowball upon each other and reinforce each other. Besides just thinking about bitcoin and/or surveying other members regarding their feelings, what are you doing for ur lil selfie?  And, how does that relate to bitcoin?

This feels like a good place to buy.
Too bad OGnasty's prediction did not come true... I would have loved buying @ 78K Grin.

Not me.

I will buy if it gets there.. but I don't want to do it.

I bought most of my cornz more than 10 years ago, so I have largely been prepared for UP for more than 10 years.. Mostly.

This feels like a good place to buy.
Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.

You really waiting for sub-$70k-ish?

Gotta give it to you to let it play out.. I get way too nervous whenever i sell any meaningful amounts of cornz... especially if my intention is to buy back cheaper - or even just spend and replace.

I have a tendency to want to buy them back sooner rather later, so I suppose that there is a need to get into the proper mindset ...

Something like $70k or lower is getting more and more realistic the closer we get to it, yet I am still not very confident that something like $70k is going to happen...

This feels like a good place to buy.
Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.
What needs to happen for you to turn bullish again?
Bitcoin is being treated more like an extremely risky tech stock and less like a safe haven.

Unlike a tech stock (i.e. NVDA) that can deliver good quarterly earnings and guidance of future growth that helps increase its stock price, Bitcoin is dependent on reduced availability and increased demand. That's a troubling spot to be in for Bitcoin to stand on its own like gold - because all we have that is driving Bitcoin's price up is; the four-year halving cycle and institutional/government/company and retail buying. If that buying fades the bottom is unknown...      

Sure there needs to be buying for the BTC price to go up, and so bitcoin's adoption seems to be a product of the growth of 7 areas of network effects that were outlined by Trace Mayer in 2014-ish.  We have heard many nonsense claims about bitcoin needing to produce a dividend in order for it to be a valuable investment, which over the years has surely led folks to poorly considering the value in holding bitcoin and also has lead them to seeking out value in inferior products, such as those products that offer yields (and/or some other benefits).

Bitcoin is designed forever, and yeah, maybe it won't go up because demand will dry up, yet you are spouting out such claims and the actual evidence is the opposite.  The more time that passes, the more and more we see demand increasing, even though much of retail seem to be failing/refusing to establish their own favorable stake in the thing that is likely to be the best investment (even though it is not guaranteed.. Bitcoin is a asymmetric bet to the upside and the most that anyone can lose is 100% as long as they do not employ leverage or engage in other games such as trading and/or getting distracted into shitcoins and/or other inferior products).

Ultimately position size is important with bitcoin, and surely for normies it can take years to establish a position size that is meaningful, yet there are still needs to get started since bitcoin remains available to everyone and everyone, even there might be attacks upon it that are trying to cause it to ONLY be a tool (and toy) for the rich, so i had been considering that normies were largely getting screwed by various aspects or the rich, governments and/or institutions coming into the space and pumping it, so in some sense dumps like these remain opportunities for normies to get more coin for less money, even though many of us likely realize that not too many normies are taking advantage of dump like these... which also would be nice for some rich folks to get reckt in order to indirectly benefit normies... and yeah, normies tend to not recognize their opportunities to enter into bitcoin even though my own proclamation is that it is always time to enter bitcoin for normies, whether there is a dip or not.
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