32% drop so far...
2nd one this year, and 3rd one in 1.5 years
this time is different...?
We likely don't know if this time is different until it plays out.
Sure we can have our theories in regards to what we believe to be more likely.
At some point the down will be considered to be over.. but then we could be faked out about such a down being over and more down could happen.
On the other side, at some point we will resume up... but then we could end up getting faked out in regards to our resumption of up and the bottom being in.
Many of the longer term coiners just HODL through thesee periods and maybe pick up a few more coins here and there down the road.
For sure, there is something that feels different about this time, since many of us likely presumed that we are in an up period.. , yet we might be able to learn a lesson in regards to being too presumptuous in times like these.
This feels like a good place to buy.
Naa, we’re going way lower sadly.
it ain't over til the jingleheimer screeds
What does this even mean?
Wordyman writing (rather than singing) a lengthy postmortem should price slip below 80
gembitz?
I am wondering if sub $80k is even enough to concede when we still have slightly more than 4 months to both recover from the down and to proceed with UP.
The odds are not looking as good as they seemed in late October.
By the way, LFC seems so "convicted on down" that sub-$80k is not going to be enough for him to start buying back. Maybe he will change his "when to buy back?" tune? who knows?
How are you guys doing? You feeling alive yet?
There's been something bothering me for months, actually several things. I'll get the little ones out of the way. I've already said it, but I would give an entire Bitcoin, if I could never hear, "by year end" price predictions again in my life. Every year we get them and every year they are wildly wrong.
But the big thing that's bugging me is I keep hearing people say the same thing over and over.
"Retail never showed up this cycle."
Hahahahaha
For sure that is a repeating theme, and the newbies say it as if they are saying something insightful and original, and they want us to give them a cookie for being so smart and contributory to the bitcoin price dynamics topic..
What really bothers me about that statement is almost all of it is based on the past and we expect things to be just like they have been for the last 15 years.
Adoption is a slow process and it also has quite a few ups and down along the way. I am likely not going to shut up about various ongoing attacks on retail. What else is new?
First of all, what is retail anyway? We kind of have used that over the years to mean non Bitcoiners.
I use it to describe normies and/or little people and/or regular people., which is the overwhelming majority of the population whether they earn $2k per year or $2 million per year. Of course, the one with the higher earnings is likely to have more options and also likely to have more discretionary income, even though surely there are rich folks who don't know how to organize their personal finances so that are able to both sustain themselves and to potentially build their income/investments in the cases that they are a relatively young person.
These are the people that were convinced over some Thanksgiving meal by their nephew. These are the people who buy coins and leave them on exchanges. And most of these people tend to buy the top and then get out.
I agree that normies tend to make a lot of mistakes, especially if they do not look into bitcoin and to continue to study it after they had started to invest into it. If they treat bitcoin like any other asset based on a mere number go up focus, then they are likely even more inclined to get shaken out if number does not end up going up in the time line that they expected.
I have a relative who is mostly a no coiner even though he had some times in which he had gotten some exposure to bitcoin. I frequently talk with about bitcoin and I had paid him in bitcoin going back to 2016, and I am pretty sure that it was around early 2020 that he was complaining that bitcoin was his worst performing asset in 2019.. It was the ONLY asset that he lost money.. so he was a bit disgruntled about bitcoin and pretty much said "no more." I am pretty sure that he has enough wealth that he could have had bought around 50 bitcoin in early 2019 (let's say to buy around $8k for each coin - so a $400k investment into bitcoin), and likely he would have not suffered financially to make such a commitment.. and he could have likely committed to 10 years too.
So yeah, if he had lump summed $400k at $8k per coin into bitcoin and then just merely bought anywhere between $100 to $200 per week (let's say averaging $150 per week) since the time of his lump summing into bitcoin in late 2019 or early 2020,
then he would have had invested an additional $47k and accumulated about an additional 1.9 BTC.
So right now he would have $447k invested and around 51.9 BTC. For sure a good place to be, yet he had so many difficulties both getting started and then also sticking with it.
Many of us know that it is not easy to get started, to spend a decent amount of time accumulating our BTC and then to not get shaken out of our investment through the many ups and downs that had occurred and are likely to continue to occur.
In short, these are people that don't actually understand what Bitcoin is. These are people who are buying in to what they think is actually the best Ponzi scheme currently going. Maybe next to Nvidia.
They haven't figured out yet that Bitcoin is exactly what Christine Lagard said it was. The escape valve.
I would say that the definition of retail is the same, but the people who keep saying the same thing over and over again are totally missing the forest for the trees, so to speak.
Even people who are in bitcoin have difficulties describing it in anything other than number go up technology, so when bitcoin is put in those kinds of terms, it can be easier to lose spirit of it when the number is not going up.
Retail showed up in the last couple years in the biggest way it ever has. There are more people who have bought exposure to the Bitcoin price in the last couple years than probably in total for the rest of the assets lifespan. (I suppose I should actually do some math before I make dramatic claims like that, but you get what I'm saying, plus it might actually be true.)
Yes.. as bitcoin goes up in price, then it takes more money to push it up. and perhaps there are times when more money comes into bitcoin than its whole previous market cap. Can you imagine $1 billion or $2 billion coming into bitcoin in 2015? when it was priced around $250? The whole market cap was less than $5 billion.
Retail showed up in a big, big way.
And the average IQ of the retail investor is probably lower than it ever has been. Sorry, not sorry to be mean.
And now they are selling. For many of them, this has been their first rodeo with the greater than 30+% pullback that Bitcoin so loves to bestow upon us.
All along, Bitcoin's volatility has been dropping because the people buying (and selling) Bitcoin on behalf of these retail morons are pros. This is, of course, assuming that they actually are buying it, which is truly an interesting question.
Finally, what we think of as the retail platforms... The front end of the big exchanges... lost a significant potential part of their customer base to the ETFs. And if you've been in this forum for longer than a month, you've heard me say that the professional traders trading on behalf of their retail investors are clearly incentivized to control the prices on these exchanges.
Anyway, these thoughts just keep banging around in my truly strange and unusual noggin.
We are so lucky to be here.
Sure. A lot of exposure through ETFs and various fund managers can now make money off of BTC, even though inferior ways to hold bitcoin (or to get price exposure to bitcoin while not really owning it).
Poll
