Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[asUHWEceyc]

It's true that nearly all US ETFs operate with paper bitcoin-only by definition: coins are sourced by third parties and then custodied with third party centralized exchanges, other than Fidelity's FBTC- in which case trust is placed with their digital assets subsidiary. Of course, the only one that actually publishes addresses is Bitwise...for a Coinbase account

Authorized Participants that do the buying and selling could also be tilting the board with order timing, asset sourcing (otc/spot/in-kind), creation type, etc- they make their money on spreads after all and there are 9 APs working for IBIT alone. Watching the elevated volume and negative price action around US open and close suggests this is happening. Conbase is probably in on it, whatever "it" may be, and must have excellent visibility into market conditions, as usual.

And of course firms acting as APs are the usual criminals- citi, goldman, ubs, jane street, etc. who would never do bad.

[DaRude]

Good riddance...

https://www.tipranks.com/news/bitcoin-og-whale-owen-gunden-dumps-his-entire-1-3-billion-stack-as-institutions-seize-control-of-etfs

EDIT: Why he was even doing an 'arbitrage' on MtGox?
In 2011 he could have bought 11k btc for $10-20K without doing any "work".

Anyone who dumps all of their huge stash in such a short period of time, is no friend to BTC. Good riddance x2

[OgNasty]

sub 84 knocking

[cAPSLOCK]

Fear and greed indicator is at 11. Wow.
Not sure what to make of it.
Someone is going to lose/make a lot of money...the only question is...who?

In this period of time, I have lost a LOT of money.  

But I had earlier gained that money.  And much more...  

And when I gain the next level should I mourn?  Or celebrate?

I have realized a constant state of mournful celebration is perfect.

Selah.

[goldkingcoiner]

What's the customary tip at McDonalds?  Asking for a friend.

A hard stare.

A reminder that they don't want to be doing that job when they are 40.

Bonus points if there's a 40 yo standing next to them doing the same job.

I even had a old guy look at the kid I told that to and say "he's got that fucking right".

I was schooling a kid on how if he couldn't even follow simple directions correctly he needs to look in the mirror and make some life choices.

They put shit on a burger I specifically warned them not to because of allergies a person has.

They could have sent someone to the hospital on that fuck up.

Luckily I don't trust them to tie their shoes with their momma's help so made sure it was done right before leaving the counter.

I would rather have McDonalds force me to pre-order online,
pay with my government sanctioned CBDC using the dirty giant IPad screen
and then go cook the burger myself than let them handle my food.
A real cook, I would trust more.  

Last week I was at McDonalds and behind the counter there was this very girl: disheveled, fat, greasy, stinking of sweat and working with looong dirty nails.

For the love of Christ.
Ruined it for me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) introduced today the Bitcoin For America Act in the U.S. House of Representatives, a landmark proposal designed to modernize the U.S. financial system and position the nation at the forefront of the global digital asset economy.

The bill would allow Americans to pay federal taxes in bitcoin, with all proceeds deposited into a newly created Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-for-america-act-tax-free-bitcoin

There must be a special place in hell for those who decide to pay their taxes in Bitcoin.

[DaRude]

-$903MM outflow from ETFs today. Who knew that speculative assholes would speculate

[DaRude]

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) introduced today the Bitcoin For America Act in the U.S. House of Representatives, a landmark proposal designed to modernize the U.S. financial system and position the nation at the forefront of the global digital asset economy.

The bill would allow Americans to pay federal taxes in bitcoin, with all proceeds deposited into a newly created Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-for-america-act-tax-free-bitcoin

There must be a special place in hell for those who decide to pay their taxes in Bitcoin.

After thinking about it, govs can always print as much fiat as they want to purchase BTC with. Not sure if it makes a difference to convert dirty fiat to BTC before sending that to them for taxes. Same end result

[JayJuanGee]

By the way BTCETFInvestor, are you losing faith in bitcoin, since you are somewhat of a newbie who was expecting bitcoin to ONLY go up and you were proclaiming that you were never going to stop your position with the  spot BTC ETF.. not that the spot BTC ETF is actual bitcoin.  So perhaps even you are being tested in terms of your level of conviction, which personally I don't consider to be faith, even though sure, you can call it whatever you like.

JJG - I have recently (as recent as today in fact) bought more spot Bitcoin ETF, and plan to add more in the months ahead... I'm tracking the price equivalent of more than 5 BTC.

Well, good for you in terms of the ongoing buying BTC price exposure (event though not the real corn).

You might have had been striking on a bit of a pet peeve of mine, when guys sometimes will talk about the market in terms of sentiment and even to say something like "the people are losing confidence" blah blah blah..

So then around that point of the conversation I give more shits about what the other person on the other side is doing rather than making somewhat lame speculations about what other people are doing or might be doing.

And, for sure, it is not outside of reasonableness to express concerns about trying to catch a falling knife.. which seems to happen quite a bit in bitcoin, and my own whole structure tends to involve buying all the way down, even though every once in a while, I might cancel some buy orders or make some other tweaks.. even though making too many changes to my buy on the way down does frequently throw me off, unless I figure out some limited way of making my changes to my buy on the way down increments and/or amounts.

sub 84 knocking

Perhaps, but ONLY $85,260 as our low, so far, and that was about 4-ish hours ago as I type this post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) introduced today the Bitcoin For America Act in the U.S. House of Representatives, a landmark proposal designed to modernize the U.S. financial system and position the nation at the forefront of the global digital asset economy.

The bill would allow Americans to pay federal taxes in bitcoin, with all proceeds deposited into a newly created Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

► https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-for-america-act-tax-free-bitcoin

There must be a special place in hell for those who decide to pay their taxes in Bitcoin.

The proposal is that IF you pay in bitcoin, then you would NOT pay cap gains on those bitcoins.
Currently, if you sell btc to do anything, including paying taxes, you have to pay cap gains (at least in US) up to 23.8% maximum for the federal tax for bitcoin held over one year.

[OgNasty]

There must be a special place in hell for those who decide to pay their taxes in Bitcoin.

I hope so. I wouldn’t want to be lumped in with the normies.

[LoyceV]

There must be a special place in hell for those who decide to pay their taxes in Bitcoin.

Why? If that's how they're going to fund their Bitcoin Reserve, it's a small step to convert your taxes into Bitcoin before sending it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It's true that nearly all US ETFs operate with paper bitcoin-only by definition: coins are sourced by third parties and then custodied with third party centralized exchanges, other than Fidelity's FBTC- in which case trust is placed with their digital assets subsidiary. Of course, the only one that actually publishes addresses is Bitwise...for a Coinbase account

Authorized Participants that do the buying and selling could also be tilting the board with order timing, asset sourcing (otc/spot/in-kind), creation type, etc- they make their money on spreads after all and there are 9 APs working for IBIT alone. Watching the elevated volume and negative price action around US open and close suggests this is happening. Conbase is probably in on it, whatever "it" may be, and must have excellent visibility into market conditions, as usual.

And of course firms acting as APs are the usual criminals- citi, goldman, ubs, jane street, etc. who would never do bad.

For me it’s the fact that we had the halving in 2024, since then Saylor has amassed over 600,000 Bitcoin, Spot ETFs supposedly have a million or something. Satoshi has a million coins in known addresses. That is a huge amount of the total supply. How is it possible we only hit 126k and as I type we make a new low of 81k. Something bad is happening.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[somac.]

It's true that nearly all US ETFs operate with paper bitcoin-only by definition: coins are sourced by third parties and then custodied with third party centralized exchanges, other than Fidelity's FBTC- in which case trust is placed with their digital assets subsidiary. Of course, the only one that actually publishes addresses is Bitwise...for a Coinbase account

Authorized Participants that do the buying and selling could also be tilting the board with order timing, asset sourcing (otc/spot/in-kind), creation type, etc- they make their money on spreads after all and there are 9 APs working for IBIT alone. Watching the elevated volume and negative price action around US open and close suggests this is happening. Conbase is probably in on it, whatever "it" may be, and must have excellent visibility into market conditions, as usual.

And of course firms acting as APs are the usual criminals- citi, goldman, ubs, jane street, etc. who would never do bad.

For me it’s the fact that we had the halving in 2024, since then Saylor has amassed over 600,000 Bitcoin, Spot ETFs supposedly have a million or something. Satoshi has a million coins in known addresses. That is a huge amount of the total supply. How is it possible we only hit 126k and as I type we make a new low of 81k. Something bad is happening.

It's odd isn't it, but in dollar terms I guess it is still a lot of money that has been invested this cycle, much more than last run. I don't know, it just doesn't seem like this will be a particular deep or long bear though. Let's say for example it is the "OG" bitcoiners selling, at this price they won't be selling anymore. Would you? so it either stops dropping soon or something else is definitely afoot in which case my view may change. Even if we hit 75k though that is still only just hitting the April low.

[LoyceV]

It's odd isn't it, but in dollar terms I guess it is still a lot of money that has been invested this cycle, much more than last run.

A couple of weeks ago the Dutch Cryptocast talked about on-chain analyses of old Bitcoin sales: they said about 400 billion dollars new capital was used to buy old coins, about 1.3 billion per day for a sustained period of time. That means a huge number of people took profit, made possible by a huge inflow of new capital. There was still al lot of "old Bitcoins" left, but at that rate, it couldn't continue forever. Which means we'll run out of sellers eventually.

I don't know, it just doesn't seem like this will be a particular deep or long bear though.

It would make sense to have a less deep bear market after a disappointing bull market.

Let's say for example it is the "OG" bitcoiners selling, at this price they won't be selling anymore. Would you? so it either stops dropping soon or something else is definitely afoot in which case my view may change. Even if we hit 75k though that is still only just hitting the April low.

If I didn't sell at $120k, I'm sure as hell not selling now. History taught me to just sit it out again.