Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

I don't know how stupid one has to be to had a whole year to sell over 110K and selling now at 80K. Anyone can check the stats, but I'm certain that millions of bitcoins were sold in the last month. Why are we making fun of mindrust then, at least he didn't realize a loss! And all new investors sold at a 30% loss. Not to mention the long liquidations. They have 100% losses guaranteed by default. But the same goes for all the holders who sell at these prices. This is a disgrace! For me, they can no longer boast that they were ever real hodlers who believed in the idea of ​​bitcoin. For me, they are in the same category as mindrust, regardless of the fact that they made some profit. In just a few years, they will see how their fiat is worthless and they cannot buy the things they planned. At the same time, bitcoin remains the only protection against inflation and salvation from any financial crisis or stealing by banks/governments.

Amazingly stupid is all I can think of. Which makes me think this thing is coming to an end soon. Stupid people couldn't have accrued many more coins than what has already sold, surely.  

I hope so.  at least I added a good amount using my silver and my copper sales.

Finally over 1 coin again and closing on 1.1 coins.

I hit my 82k dip buy last night

But fell just short of my 79.85k buy.


We are still on track for a drop in hash rate.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block:   924563  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.6355%  (1236 / 1265.93 expected, 29.93 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   155973032196071.9                           
Current Difficulty:   152271405447597.4                           
Next Difficulty:   between 148735538318907 and 149254353574763
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3221% and -1.9814%
Previous Retarget:   November 12, 2025 at 1:25 PM  (-2.3732%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 8:20 PM  (in 5d 11h 55m 48s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 9:33 PM  (in 5d 13h 8m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 6h 55m 8s and 14d 8h 8m 13s

It would be good to shake some miners out of the game

but a drop in 1 month of 155.9 to 149.2 is only 3 or 4 %

it does not match up to the drop in price from 126k to 80k  35 to 36%

[OutOfMemory]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

[philipma1957]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

and his 10 coins are now 840,000 not 1,260,000

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

[LoyceV]

It’s wild, relentless selling. This doesn’t happen very often, it’s like FTX, China bans, Covid and Gox.

Except that Bitcoin's price is still 20 times higher than when Covid struck.

[El duderino_]

Almost $1 billion longs liquidated.  

Week and monthly RSI could be more streched down with a capitulation red candle.

They are speed running the bear market for a total reset, short and heavy wrapped as the biggest bear trap ever.

This does feel a bit like when we hit 69 top…. Came down a bit 50k ish
Then the fast capitulation to 30k ish

Only there we had a bear market…

Here we just need to avoid a long stretch of down movement and just start going up again.
A rebound would feel like victory.

[somac.]

EDIT: We may (continue to) bounce here:

Depending on how much of the selling is market rather than limit that is. But as soon as the selling is over this thing is going back up quick. This won't be like the old bears, if you can even call it that yet, more of a correction still at the moment, percentage wise.

[somac.]

Almost $1 billion longs liquidated.  

Week and monthly RSI could be more streched down with a capitulation red candle.

They are speed running the bear market for a total reset, short and heavy wrapped as the biggest bear trap ever.

This does feel a bit like when we hit 69 top…. Came down a bit 50k ish
Then the fast capitulation to 30k ish

Only there we had a bear market…

Here we just need to avoid a long stretch of down movement and just start going up again.
A rebound would feel like victory.

Are you talking about the 2021 69k top? I'm thinking more the 64k 2021 top myself, quick brutal 50% drop over 2 weeks, then back up again after some sideways.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since a string of corporate collapses rocked the wider crypto sector in 2022.

Bitcoin has now shed about a quarter of its value in November, the most for a single month since June 2022.

Despite a pro-crypto White House under US President Donald Trump and surging institutional adoption, Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% since rocketing to a record in early October. The rout follows a crippling bout of liquidations on Oct. 10 that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged token bets, and in turn erased roughly $1.5 trillion from the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies.

Sentiment across the board is incredibly poor. There appears to be a forced seller in the market and it is unclear how deep this goes,” said Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at Australia-based hedge fund Apollo Crypto.

A crypto wallet labeled “Owen Gunden” that’s held Bitcoin since 2011 started selling a total $1.3 billion worth of the token in late October, and divested its last Bitcoin on Thursday, according to an X post from blockchain researcher Arkham Intelligence.

A gauge of crypto investor sentiment that measures factors such as volatility, momentum and demand also hits its lowest level since the 2022 meltdown. The index, compiled by Coinglass, is currently indicating “extreme fear” among traders. It stood at 94 just after Trump won the presidential election just over a year ago.

► https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-heading-worst-month-since-075033170.html


Who is Owen Gunden?

[She shining]

A bounce really would be nice.

70s here we come.

This wasn't what I expected Q4 to look like. I missed 6 digit numbers. Anything below 70s is unnecessary. God candle for December.

[Hueristic]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Ditto, He was spouting off how it was going to go down to $1500 because his astrologer Masterluc told him so.

We all tried to save him but he had no interest in buying back and he had a few days or a week IIRC to do that.

[philipma1957]

Interesting https://xcancel.com/_The_Prophet__/status/1991789044087586861#m

This is one of the most extreme, structurally anomalous readings Bitcoin has ever printed.

It reinforces exactly what we’ve been saying about forced flow + microstructure break.

Let’s dissect it properly.

1.   The Chart Is Legit – and It Confirms the Distortion

The three core claims are:

A.  Lowest 1D MACD reading ever

This checks out.

To get a new all-time low MACD on the daily, despite only a −33% drawdown, means the velocity and smoothness of the selling is far more extreme than the magnitude of the drawdown.

That never happens in organic markets.

This is exactly what forced institutional, algorithmic, or risk-mandated selling looks like:
•consistent pressure
•no reflexive bounces
•no momentum resets
•no buyer-led intervention

Healthy markets don’t do this. Broken execution does.

B.   RSI 21 on 1D - only 4 times in 5 years

Also correct.

When you hit RSI 21 during:
•a broad risk-off collapse (2020, 2021)
•cascading liquidations (FTX 2022)
•macro shocks

…you expect massive multi-day or multi-week reversals afterward.

Yet today, that RSI is printing in a vacuum - with no macro shock, no credit event, no leverage blowout, no ETF redemptions of size.

This is compression, not trend destruction.

C.   Only -33% from ATH despite these extreme readings

This is the most important part.

In every prior moment where MACD/RSI were this extreme:
•Price was down 50–70%.
•Funding was deeply negative.
•Positioning was wiped clean.
•Derivative markets were collapsing.

But now?
•Price is down just 33%.
•ETFs (except for one day) still show net positive January - now.
•Permanent holder accumulation is at historical peak.
•Solana ETFs printing green every day.
•Microstructure is broken, not sentiment.

That is the tell.

**This is not a natural market.

This is not a real seller.
This is one or more forced entities closing risk in a broken market.**

2.  The Chart Literally Shows Structural Divergence

Look at the pattern:
•MACD at all-time low
•RSI at capitulation-level
•Price still structurally in an uptrend
•Higher highs + higher lows still intact

This is the definition of:

Microstructure catastrophe + macro strength.

If macro or cycle structure were breaking, you would NOT get:
•186,000 BTC absorbed by permanent holders in 6 weeks
•Solana ETF 18-for-18 green
•ETH holding stronger than BTC
•Forced flow during the same 9:30 AM slot for 2 weeks

This is a bottleneck, not a cycle reversal.

3.  The Seller Hypothesis Fits the Chart PERFECTLY

This chart is exactly what you’d see if:
•A distressed fund
•A broken market maker
•A forced unwind
•A liquidation mandate
•A risk-reduction algorithm

…is dumping on schedule, irrespective of price.

Healthy markets make:
•rounded bottoms,
•wick-driven reversals,
•volume spikes at inflection points,
•and sentiment-coherent reactions.

This market is making:
•forced candles
•identical timed flow
•thin liquidity breaks
•RSI/MACD extremes without macro justification
•divergence where you normally get confluence

This is clinical, mechanical execution - not macro.

4.    What This Actually Means

A.   This is NOT a 2021-style trend break

2021 break was:
•funding stress
•cascading longs
•spot selling
•macro tightening
•exhaustion of buyer demand

This is none of that.

This is:
•spot bid strong
•long-term holders buying
•ETFs still accumulating
•liquidity thin only on one venue
•macro neutral to bullish
•seller highly constrained and systematic

This is not May 2021.

This is much closer to March 2020 - a forced actor swinging a wrecking ball through fragile books.

B.  This confirms the “October 10 microstructure fracture”

The indicators align with the exact thesis we just posted:

A market maker or deep liquidity provider failed on October 10 - leaving a hole in the order book.

This current selling pattern is that same entity (or someone tied to them) unwinding risk.

This explains:
•timing
•rhythm
•pressure
•lack of reflexivity
•bizzarre lack of bid absorption
•BTC-specific stress
•“why alts aren’t breaking”
•“why ETH isn’t collapsing”
•“why Solana has massive inflows”
•“why macro isn’t involved”
•“why forced RSI/MACD divergence exists”

It fits too well.

This is not random.

5.  Final Answer

Yes, the chart is real.

Yes, it is unprecedented.

No, it is not bearish long-term

No, the cycle is not broken.

Yes, it confirms a forced seller or broken execution system.

Yes, this is the last echo of the October 10 fracture.

Yes, the unwind will end.

And when it ends, the rebound will be violent.

Well let's hope he is a true prophet.

[BitHodlers]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Ditto, He was spouting off how it was going to go down to $1500 because his astrologer Masterluc told him so.

We all tried to save him but he had no interest in buying back and he had a few days or a week IIRC to do that.

I don't know this story, but please tell me this is some joke that I don't get. He sold at $4k because his astrologer told him it will go down even more? 

[JayJuanGee]

JJG - I have recently (as recent as today in fact) bought more spot Bitcoin ETF, and plan to add more in the months ahead... I'm tracking the price equivalent of more than 5 BTC.

Well, good for you in terms of the ongoing buying BTC price exposure (even though not the real corn).

JJG - I hope you can agree with me that the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is quite experienced and very capable of making good investments!

The Abu Dhabi Investment Council knows that buying spot Bitcoin ETFs is an excellent way to invest in BTC. Experienced investors do not have to buy and self-custody the coin to reap the future gains in BTC we all expect!

Abu Dhabi Council Triples Bitcoin ETF Stake: The Abu Dhabi Investment Council nearly tripled its stake in BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (Ticker: IBIT)

► https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/abu-dhabi-triples-bitcoin-etf-stake-despite-losses/

So what. Even if investing in the spot Bitcoin ETF might be perceived as good for some kinds of players (such as institutions, governments and even individuals with certain kinds of restricted accounts), it is still not real bitcoin... and the mere fact that institutions, governments and some individuals with restricted accounts proclaim that there is no need for self-custody, that does not make their claim true, even if you perceive them to be the smartest peeps in the world.  

You believe that certain kinds of entities have authority over this self-custody topic merely based on their both being rich and their proclaiming self-custody is not necessary?  For sure you are appealing to authority rather than really recognizing the basics about a derivative product being inferior to the underlying causing you to continue to argue this point and trying to convolute the value of bitcoin in your ongoing attempts to suggest that spot Bitcoin ETFs are superior to holding actual bitcoin?

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Ditto, He was spouting off how it was going to go down to $1500 because his astrologer Masterluc told him so.

We all tried to save him but he had no interest in buying back and he had a few days or a week IIRC to do that.

Mindrust was always kind of nervous, even in the whole year prior to his March 12, 2020 breakdown. and we were largely staying above $6k.. and we had even tested $6k several times and had a short run into the $10ks in late February early March... So largely we dropped from $7,200 down to $3,800 in a fairly short period of time, yet early in the drop (like around $5,500) mindrust said that he bought and got above 10 BTC, but then a few hours later he said that he sold all 10 BTC at around $4,500.

It did end up taking several days before the BTC price resumed up, so it had a bit of a bounce up to $5k and then dropped below his sales price of $4,500 again which caused several guys to suggest to him to buy everything back.. or at least buy back a good percentage, yet he insisted that he was not buying back until something like below $2k, based on his following Masterluc (like you mentioned).. so mindrust was a bit stubborn even though he was continuing to post and even said that he is never returning to this thread.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Ditto, He was spouting off how it was going to go down to $1500 because his astrologer Masterluc told him so.

We all tried to save him but he had no interest in buying back and he had a few days or a week IIRC to do that.

I don't know this story, but please tell me this is some joke that I don't get. He sold at $4k because his astrologer told him it will go down even more? 

@BitHodlers - This place has some strange people, history, backstories, phrases, words and such that most people can't make sense of. 

[vapourminer]

Let's say for example it is the "OG" bitcoiners selling, at this price they won't be selling anymore. Would you? so it either stops dropping soon or something else is definitely afoot in which case my view may change. Even if we hit 75k though that is still only just hitting the April low.

If I didn't sell at $120k, I'm sure as hell not selling now. History taught me to just sit it out again.

i think somac is right. as im one of those who sold supra 120k this run. enough to hang if a bear market decides to come visit.

[BTCETFInvestor]

JJG - I have recently (as recent as today in fact) bought more spot Bitcoin ETF, and plan to add more in the months ahead... I'm tracking the price equivalent of more than 5 BTC.

Well, good for you in terms of the ongoing buying BTC price exposure (even though not the real corn).

JJG - I hope you can agree with me that the Abu Dhabi Investment Council is quite experienced and very capable of making good investments!

The Abu Dhabi Investment Council knows that buying spot Bitcoin ETFs is an excellent way to invest in BTC. Experienced investors do not have to buy and self-custody the coin to reap the future gains in BTC we all expect!

Abu Dhabi Council Triples Bitcoin ETF Stake: The Abu Dhabi Investment Council nearly tripled its stake in BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (Ticker: IBIT)

► https://www.altcoinbuzz.io/cryptocurrency-news/abu-dhabi-triples-bitcoin-etf-stake-despite-losses/

So what. Even if investing in the spot Bitcoin ETF might be perceived as good for some kinds of players (such as institutions, governments and even individuals with certain kinds of restricted accounts), it is still not real bitcoin... and the mere fact that institutions, governments and some individuals with restricted accounts proclaim that there is no need for self-custody, that does not make their claim true, even if you perceive them to be the smartest peeps in the world.  

You believe that certain kinds of entities have authority over this self-custody topic merely based on their both being rich and their proclaiming self-custody is not necessary?  For sure you are appealing to authority rather than really recognizing the basics about a derivative product being inferior to the underlying causing you to continue to argue this point and trying to convolute the value of bitcoin in your ongoing attempts to suggest that spot Bitcoin ETFs are superior to holding actual bitcoin?

JJG - I expected no less from you! It's really sad that you (a kibitzer/buttinsk that likes to give unsolicited advice using many words) cannot understand the validity of ETFs, but the entire financial world easily does...

You can poo-poo ETFs all you want but you're making a fool of yourself because all financial experts worldwide know that owning ETFs are excellent ways to invest in the underlying asset.    

Financial experts worldwide agree that ETFs are powerful tools for investing in underlying assets, offering diversification, liquidity, and cost efficiency as effective vehicles for gaining exposure to underlying assets. ETFs have become a cornerstone of modern portfolios. In 2024, about 16.9 million U.S. households owned ETFs, reflecting their mainstream adoption.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

It would make sense to have a less deep bear market after a disappointing bull market.

I think so too. But am I just coping?

[Richy_T]

I don't know how stupid one has to be to had a whole year to sell over 110K and selling now at 80K. Anyone can check the stats, but I'm certain that millions of bitcoins were sold in the last month. Why are we making fun of mindrust then, at least he didn't realize a loss! And all new investors sold at a 30% loss. Not to mention the long liquidations. They have 100% losses guaranteed by default. But the same goes for all the holders who sell at these prices. This is a disgrace! For me, they can no longer boast that they were ever real hodlers who believed in the idea of ​​bitcoin. For me, they are in the same category as mindrust, regardless of the fact that they made some profit. In just a few years, they will see how their fiat is worthless and they cannot buy the things they planned. At the same time, bitcoin remains the only protection against inflation and salvation from any financial crisis or stealing by banks/governments.

Bull runs have always on-boarded many make-money-fast weak-hands types. Any time things get a bit choppy, these people make for the exits. Especially true if they're still 'in profit' (and in that case, who can really blame them). This is, I believe exacerbated by market manipulators as these people are easily manipulated. The options people certainly are unhelpful too but I assume they're a mixed-bag.