Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

Just look at how dark that dot is... The darkest of all day price changes since 2016.

He really sold the DIP!

That was the covid flash crash.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

Just look at how dark that dot is... The darkest of all day price changes since 2016.

He really sold the DIP!

That was the covid flash crash.

Yes, I actually made my most sizeable recentish purchase of Bitcoin on that same day. I wonder if I got some of his. 😁

[vapourminer]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price 

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

and his 10 coins are now 840,000 not 1,260,000

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He will certainly appreciate that

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Financial experts worldwide agree that ETFs are powerful tools for investing in underlying assets

Argumentum ad verecundiam.  Experts... Lol.  Pfft.  Trust the science, trust the government, trust black rock, trust the oligarchs, trust the leaders, trust the authorities.

This thinking actually runs entirely counter to the reason Bitcoin is important in the first place.

offering diversification, liquidity, and cost efficiency as effective vehicles for gaining exposure to underlying assets.

A tasty word salad.

Bitcoin doesn't need any of that.  It's whole point was to separate you from the need for that.

Bitcoin is an asset that you don't strictly need someone to custody for you.

And I would argue that the phrase "underlying assets" is nothing more than magic words.  And instead we should use what really are the words that describe the Bitcoin ETF.

Gigantic Throbbing Counter-Party Risk.

But it's risk with benefits, for sure. It's just that the benefits... the REAL benefits are for the companies that create the ETFs, not the customers.

One of the biggest selling points for ETFs is that they are regulated, that they meet the requirements for inclusion into other financial instruments that are regulated and created by a collusion between the companies that create them and the government.

Those two entities, the companies that create things like ETFs and the government, are also actually the exact same people.

It is kabuki. It is shadows cast upon a cave wall.

ETFs have become a cornerstone of modern portfolios. In 2024, about 16.9 million U.S. households owned ETFs, reflecting their mainstream adoption.[/b][/size]

Argumentum ad populum.

All the cool kids are doing it. All the sheeple are lining up for it. You're a fool if you don't!

I pride myself on nuanced thinking. Perhaps you could replace the word nuanced with the word erratic, but I prefer nuanced.  And I think the ETFs have been a giant boon for Bitcoin in many ways, and they are a way for people who do not understand Bitcoin to actually take part in it, sort of.  And some of their regulatory benefits are compelling. Being able to hold shares of a Bitcoin ETF in your retirement account, for example.

ETFs are an interesting and useful financial derivative invention.  They are particularly handy when the underlying asset is something that's extremely difficult to custody oneself.  Natural gas, for example.

But in my opinion, ETFs also have a built-in dark side. It centralizes ownership of important assets like gold and Bitcoin.  And it creates an ad hoc fiat system on top of these "underlying assets" and sells you pieces of paper... digits in a computer.

People have a hard time digesting that you can change a couple very simple rules in a game and the game becomes something completely different with a completely different strategy.

I am a bad poker player, but I do enjoy the game. There are two versions of Holdem that are commonly played, Texas and Omaha.  There are two extremely simple differences between these two forms of poker. In Omaha holdem, each player is dealt four cards. In Texas holdem each player is dealt two cards.  In Omaha, you must use exactly two and only two of your cards to make a hand. In the Texas variety you can use one both or neither of your cards to make a hand.

These two tiny little differences, amongst all the other rules for the game that are identical, change the gameplay significantly. The strategies, the edges, everything is completely different because of those two tiny things.

People who think they are buying Bitcoin when they buy a Bitcoin ETF are playing a game that they do not understand the rules of at all.  And the difference between Bitcoin held in one's own custody and shares of a Bitcoin ETF is enormous.  The biggest difference is that you are neutering Bitcoin completely via the ETF and reintroducing not only simple trust but complex trust in a third party.

I'm not saying that Bitcoin ETFs are not useful or that there are not arguments for owning them.

What I am saying, hopefully somewhat clearly, is: THEY. ARE. NOT. BITCOIN.

And their presence is a magic trick that our broken financial system can use to lull people into allowing the banks and the corporations to have control over all things that can be considered property, while the consumer simply holds a promise from proven liars.

I have made many arguments for the institutional middleman with Bitcoin. I believe banks are necessary.  I do not believe that every human being has the ability to custody their own Bitcoin without greater risk than using "experts" to do it.  And the risks scale differently for each individual.

But, if one is capable of owning their own property and taking responsibility for their own assets and chooses not to, then they are actually opting out of the part of the game that is crucial to its eventual success.  Without self-sovereign people, organizations, countries, etc., holding Bitcoin themselves the asset just turns into yet another paper printing machine.

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

[philipma1957]

Financial experts worldwide agree that ETFs are powerful tools for investing in underlying assets

Argumentum ad verecundiam.  Experts... Lol.  Pfft.  Trust the science, trust the government, trust black rock, trust the oligarchs, trust the leaders, trust the authorities.

This thinking actually runs entirely counter to the reason Bitcoin is important in the first place.

offering diversification, liquidity, and cost efficiency as effective vehicles for gaining exposure to underlying assets.

A tasty word salad.

Bitcoin doesn't need any of that.  It's whole point was to separate you from the need for that.

Bitcoin is an asset that you don't strictly need someone to custody for you.

And I would argue that the phrase "underlying assets" is nothing more than magic words.  And instead we should use what really are the words that describe the Bitcoin ETF.

Gigantic Throbbing Counter-Party Risk.

But it's risk with benefits, for sure. It's just that the benefits... the REAL benefits are for the companies that create the ETFs, not the customers.

One of the biggest selling points for ETFs is that they are regulated, that they meet the requirements for inclusion into other financial instruments that are regulated and created by a collusion between the companies that create them and the government.

Those two entities, the companies that create things like ETFs and the government, are also actually the exact same people.

It is kabuki. It is shadows cast upon a cave wall.

ETFs have become a cornerstone of modern portfolios. In 2024, about 16.9 million U.S. households owned ETFs, reflecting their mainstream adoption.[/b][/size]

Argumentum ad populum.

All the cool kids are doing it. All the sheeple are lining up for it. You're a fool if you don't!

I pride myself on nuanced thinking. Perhaps you could replace the word nuanced with the word erratic, but I prefer nuanced.  And I think the ETFs have been a giant boon for Bitcoin in many ways, and they are a way for people who do not understand Bitcoin to actually take part in it, sort of.  And some of their regulatory benefits are compelling. Being able to hold shares of a Bitcoin ETF in your retirement account, for example.

ETFs are an interesting and useful financial derivative invention.  They are particularly handy when the underlying asset is something that's extremely difficult to custody oneself.  Natural gas, for example.

But in my opinion, ETFs also have a built-in dark side. It centralizes ownership of important assets like gold and Bitcoin.  And it creates an ad hoc fiat system on top of these "underlying assets" and sells you pieces of paper... digits in a computer.

People have a hard time digesting that you can change a couple very simple rules in a game and the game becomes something completely different with a completely different strategy.

I am a bad poker player, but I do enjoy the game. There are two versions of Holdem that are commonly played, Texas and Omaha.  There are two extremely simple differences between these two forms of poker. In Omaha holdem, each player is dealt four cards. In Texas holdem each player is dealt two cards.  In Omaha, you must use exactly two and only two of your cards to make a hand. In the Texas variety you can use one both or neither of your cards to make a hand.

These two tiny little differences, amongst all the other rules for the game that are identical, change the gameplay significantly. The strategies, the edges, everything is completely different because of those two tiny things.

People who think they are buying Bitcoin when they buy a Bitcoin ETF are playing a game that they do not understand the rules of at all.  And the difference between Bitcoin held in one's own custody and shares of a Bitcoin ETF is enormous.  The biggest difference is that you are neutering Bitcoin completely via the ETF and reintroducing not only simple trust but complex trust in a third party.

I'm not saying that Bitcoin ETFs are not useful or that there are not arguments for owning them.

What I am saying, hopefully somewhat clearly, is: THEY. ARE. NOT. BITCOIN.

And their presence is a magic trick that our broken financial system can use to lull people into allowing the banks and the corporations to have control over all things that can be considered property, while the consumer simply holds a promise from proven liars.

I have made many arguments for the institutional middleman with Bitcoin. I believe banks are necessary.  I do not believe that every human being has the ability to custody their own Bitcoin without greater risk than using "experts" to do it.  And the risks scale differently for each individual.

But, if one is capable of owning their own property and taking responsibility for their own assets and chooses not to, then they are actually opting out of the part of the game that is crucial to its eventual success.  Without self-sovereign people, organizations, countries, etc., holding Bitcoin themselves the asset just turns into yet another paper printing machine.

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

This is funny.

[OutOfMemory]

Some things make it easy for me to just watch the price, regardless if it's going up or down:

1. I hodl (mostly)
2. I buy (occasionally)
3. As i see it (SOMA), the area between last cycle top (-ish) and >= $100k became an entry point for short term investors, but the area between $100k and above became attractive for OGs and long term hodlers (in for more than 2 cycles) to sell. $100k always was a psychological border. The ones recently invested below become cautious when BTC price dips below $100k, while long term sellers become careful the higher the price gets above $100k, because initially a good part wanted to sell $100k but also withheld BTC to get out more cash, to reach their projected $100k fiat goals but also be able to keep more cornz. So they fear the bear market, because they wanted to sell all they wanted to sell in the end of the bull, and now would be the projected top-stage of the cycle, so maybe this was the top already... -> They sell! They are above the mystical $100k, they have enough corn to keep.... So what gives?
If you are aware of how precious Bitcoin is, you don't want to sell a single Sat too much. Sure, you have targets for taking profits. but if you are over those targets, you might hold out a little longer and sell later, before they cycle should top out, according to past cycles.

The short term investor bunch is just too new to Bitcoin and such downity makes them anxious and likely prematurely pulling their plugs (mindrusting it?). For most recent coiners, BTC is risky, and so is their approach to the market. "Better pull out, because who knows what's going to happen...".
IDK if the above makes sense to anybody else, because it's based on vague feelings about a mix of different impressions, but maybe some of you get the bigger picture.
After all, it's SOMA, but i really expected turbulence around the $100k mark.
4. My sell ladders start at $125k - so it was bad luck so far for me, but i kept the coins, which is more important than getting the money. It will come to me anyway, but later.


(EDITed a bit)

[JayJuanGee]

If this Owen Gunden thing is real

Who?
Google tells me it's someone who sold 11k BTC since October, and finished the last part of his sale today. That raises 2 questions: 1. why doesn't an early Bitcoin investor care about his privacy, and 2. why is this relevant now, when a 80k BTC sale a while back only caused a small dip in price?

It is not relevant in my opinion. People are just trying to find a narrative that explains the market, and when they are desperate anything will do. Just a while back on X it was because quantum computers will break Bitcoin in a few years or some other nonsense that was being spread.  

After that BTC30k bearwhale i came to conclusion that technical genius is inversely related to financial knowledge.

That "slaying" took place at $300 per BTC, and the BTC price largely stayed below $300 for the next year after the purported "slaying."   The BTC price for most of 2015 was in the mid-$200s and even spending a decent amount of time time the lower $200s.. so there would have had been plenty of time for anyone selling for around $300 in October 2014 to buy back in, even though who knows if such buying back in had actually taken place for folks who were selling their cornz around $300 in late 2014.

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price 
EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

and his 10 coins are now 840,000 not 1,260,000

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He will certainly appreciate that

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

In some sense, you seem to be referring to an aspect of opportunity costs, since sometimes the "what ifs" and the "could of" "should of" become difficult to quantify - so then with bitcoin over the years we have not ONLY accumulated and compounded value, there have also been a lot of ups and downs along the way that tempted us to sell too much too soon and/or to fail refuse to sufficiently prepare our holdings for UP that may or may not end up coming.

In the case of bitcoin, the UP did end up coming, and those who ongoingly took action to accumulate bitcoin and/or at least not to sell too much too soon, ended up profiting quite stupendously  - even though at the same time, arguably there are some of us who might have had chosen to take decently large profits at various points along the way and perhaps even did not accumulate nearly as many BTC as we could have had accumulated, yet even with some whimpiness and/or some mistakes in our bitcoin accumulation, we still ended up doing quite well with our bitcoin, seemingly largely because we were erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and/or holding most of our coin rather than taking large profits.

So for example, even if we might have had chosen to take 10% or 20% of our bitcoin off the table after the price had gone up 10x, it surely may well have had seemed like a lot of money to be taking off of the table, yet at the same time, we largely ended up preserving the overwhelming majority of our holdings, and perhaps we were able to engage in such "shaving off" of profits at a few stages in our bitcoin investment journey, and we still ended up doing fine, even if we could have had more BTC, our shaving off of "profits" was mostly reasonable and tempered in terms of our deciding to hang onto a large majority of our holdings.

Of course, on a personal level, I likely have not shaved off as much profits along the way as other guys, even though I do frequently talk about some of my inclinations to sharve off more profits from time to time... and there are also some guys here who are not so excited about the idea of selling any of our bitcoin holdings, but then it seems that if we want to enter into lending relationships, then we might be putting our bitcoin at risk in those kinds of arrangements, too, even though I understand the advantages of not having to pay taxes on the various sales of the cornz.

[edited out]

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

You are quite the smartie pants in your grappling with the topic, since you really told cAPSLOCK.   Didn't you?

In essence, you (BTCETFInvestor) have shown yourself to be a bit of a purposeful idiot in terms of not really understanding bitcoin very well (and promoting views in that direction to show your lack of understanding and/or appreciation of the value of the actual product rather than the derivative product).

You seem to believe (which I doubt that even you believe such nonsense) that investing in the derivative product brings value to the space in any kind of meaningful way (beyond allowing various third parties and likely status quo rich to attempt to manipulate the underlying), even though surely there are various ways that folks (institutions and governments too) are enticed into buying the derivative product rather than buying the thing that actually has value and is designed in such a way that you (they) don't need a third-party custodian in order to be able to hold it - even though ongoingly, quite a few folks are lured into such inferior product that might partially be an attack on bitcoin, to the extent that those various third-party custodians might be given undue weight in terms of their manipulation of the price with bitcoin that they don't have and/or might they at some point not get caught up on the wrong side of their manipulation attempts?

[BitHodlers]

If this Owen Gunden thing is real

Who?
Google tells me it's someone who sold 11k BTC since October, and finished the last part of his sale today. That raises 2 questions: 1. why doesn't an early Bitcoin investor care about his privacy, and 2. why is this relevant now, when a 80k BTC sale a while back only caused a small dip in price?

It is not relevant in my opinion. People are just trying to find a narrative that explains the market, and when they are desperate anything will do. Just a while back on X it was because quantum computers will break Bitcoin in a few years or some other nonsense that was being spread.  

@BitHodlers - Did you read the info in the link I provided about Owen Gunden's selling activity? It is indeed relevant...  

He sold 11,000 BTC since October 21, 2025, worth about $1.3 billion. His final transfer of 2,499 BTC (~$228 million) to Kraken marked the complete exit.

No it is not. $1.3 billion is nothing for the size of an asset like Bitcoin. There is plenty of liquidity to absorb that. In any case, the fewer people there are with such holdings the better.

[philipma1957]

If this Owen Gunden thing is real

Who?
Google tells me it's someone who sold 11k BTC since October, and finished the last part of his sale today. That raises 2 questions: 1. why doesn't an early Bitcoin investor care about his privacy, and 2. why is this relevant now, when a 80k BTC sale a while back only caused a small dip in price?

It is not relevant in my opinion. People are just trying to find a narrative that explains the market, and when they are desperate anything will do. Just a while back on X it was because quantum computers will break Bitcoin in a few years or some other nonsense that was being spread.  

@BitHodlers - Did you read the info in the link I provided about Owen Gunden's selling activity? It is indeed relevant...  

He sold 11,000 BTC since October 21, 2025, worth about $1.3 billion. His final transfer of 2,499 BTC (~$228 million) to Kraken marked the complete exit.

No it is not. $1.3 billion is nothing for the size of an asset like Bitcoin. There is plenty of liquidity to absorb that. In any case, the fewer people there are with such holdings the better.

yeah the handle over the few days was way more.

100 billion or more.

130
 97
 81
1o1

last 4 days.

and the 130 does not show the full day

[OutOfMemory]

No it is not. $1.3 billion is nothing for the size of an asset like Bitcoin. There is plenty of liquidity to absorb that. In any case, the fewer people there are with such holdings the better.

Liquidity also depends on funding and interest rates, and the Fed still holds back a bit too much there. No clear signal, so there's more uncertainty and risk-avoidance.

Interesting times for Bitcoin, that's for sure.

[BTCETFInvestor]

If this Owen Gunden thing is real

Who?
Google tells me it's someone who sold 11k BTC since October, and finished the last part of his sale today. That raises 2 questions: 1. why doesn't an early Bitcoin investor care about his privacy, and 2. why is this relevant now, when a 80k BTC sale a while back only caused a small dip in price?

It is not relevant in my opinion. People are just trying to find a narrative that explains the market, and when they are desperate anything will do. Just a while back on X it was because quantum computers will break Bitcoin in a few years or some other nonsense that was being spread.  

After that BTC30k bearwhale i came to conclusion that technical genius is inversely related to financial knowledge.

That "slaying" took place at $300 per BTC, and the BTC price largely stayed below $300 for the next year after the purported "slaying."   The BTC price for most of 2015 was in the mid-$200s and even spending a decent amount of time time the lower $200s.. so there would have had been plenty of time for anyone selling for around $300 in October 2014 to buy back in, even though who knows if such buying back in had actually taken place for folks who were selling their cornz around $300 in late 2014.

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  
EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

and his 10 coins are now 840,000 not 1,260,000

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He will certainly appreciate that

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

In some sense, you seem to be referring to an aspect of opportunity costs, since sometimes the "what ifs" and the "could of" "should of" become difficult to quantify - so then with bitcoin over the years we have not ONLY accumulated and compounded value, there have also been a lot of ups and downs along the way that tempted us to sell too much too soon and/or to fail refuse to sufficiently prepare our holdings for UP that may or may not end up coming.

In the case of bitcoin, the UP did end up coming, and those who ongoingly took action to accumulate bitcoin and/or at least not to sell too much too soon, ended up profiting quite stupendously  - even though at the same time, arguably there are some of us who might have had chosen to take decently large profits at various points along the way and perhaps even did not accumulate nearly as many BTC as we could have had accumulated, yet even with some whimpiness and/or some mistakes in our bitcoin accumulation, we still ended up doing quite well with our bitcoin, seemingly largely because we were erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and/or holding most of our coin rather than taking large profits.

So for example, even if we might have had chosen to take 10% or 20% of our bitcoin off the table after the price had gone up 10x, it surely may well have had seemed like a lot of money to be taking off of the table, yet at the same time, we largely ended up preserving the overwhelming majority of our holdings, and perhaps we were able to engage in such "shaving off" of profits at a few stages in our bitcoin investment journey, and we still ended up doing fine, even if we could have had more BTC, our shaving off of "profits" was mostly reasonable and tempered in terms of our deciding to hang onto a large majority of our holdings.

Of course, on a personal level, I likely have not shaved off as much profits along the way as other guys, even though I do frequently talk about some of my inclinations to sharve off more profits from time to time... and there are also some guys here who are not so excited about the idea of selling any of our bitcoin holdings, but then it seems that if we want to enter into lending relationships, then we might be putting our bitcoin at risk in those kinds of arrangements, too, even though I understand the advantages of not having to pay taxes on the various sales of the cornz.

[edited out]

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

You are quite the smartie pants in your grappling with the topic, since you really told cAPSLOCK.   Didn't you?

In essence, you (BTCETFInvestor) have shown yourself to be a bit of a purposeful idiot in terms of not really understanding bitcoin very well (and promoting views in that direction to show your lack of understanding and/or appreciation of the value of the actual product rather than the derivative product).

You seem to believe (which I doubt that even you believe such nonsense) that investing in the derivative product brings value to the space in any kind of meaningful way (beyond allowing various third parties and likely status quo rich to attempt to manipulate the underlying), even though surely there are various ways that folks (institutions and governments too) are enticed into buying the derivative product rather than buying the thing that actually has value and is designed in such a way that you (they) don't need a third-party custodian in order to be able to hold it - even though ongoingly, quite a few folks are lured into such inferior product that might partially be an attack on bitcoin, to the extent that those various third-party custodians might be given undue weight in terms of their manipulation of the price with bitcoin that they don't have and/or might they at some point not get caught up on the wrong side of their manipulation attempts?

Haha - You are a wordy man full of shit and totally meaningless innuendo...

[OgNasty]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

[philipma1957]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

okay so take advantage of the dip and when the results come in jan you will either be happy or sad.

[JayJuanGee]

4. My sell ladders start at $125k - so it was bad luck so far for me, but i kept the coins, which is more important than getting the money. It will come to me anyway, but later.

Many times this has happened to me too.. even though my approach is much more incrementalist, but there can be price ranges in which I might either increase my BTC sales on the way up or increase my buys on the way down.. yet on the sales on the way up, the increased range might not end up getting executed or such increase range might ONLY partially get executed which causes a bit of frustration.. and then some level of additional patience comes from the deferred gratification.. that could take several months or even several years before BTC prices might return back to that price range in which the increased sales had been set up.

If we already have decently good cashflow management in place then we won't necessarily panic over some delays, yet people are at different places in their lives and there might be some reasons that they are specifically seeking certain levels of payouts on the way up, so then if their target is not reached then they might have to sell at lower levels.. .. so then right now, guys who have average costs of their BTC below $10k might not be willing to sell much if any cornz at $85k, yet if we were to spend a couple of years around this price, they might change their mind since they might decide to shave some off, even though it would have had been better to shave off at 12.5x profits, but they are then urged into shaving some off at ONLY 8.5x profits... that is of course, assuming that bitcoin is not dead and maybe the price will never recover?

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

There is a difference between confusion and differing perspectives. 

The mere fact that you posted some ideas (that were not even your own ideas) and theories about bitcoin's price drop does not mean that guys need to agree with that framework or that rationale or those facts, or even to address any of that, even if you happen to be the second smartest guy in bitcoin.

[Biodom]

4. My sell ladders start at $125k - so it was bad luck so far for me, but i kept the coins, which is more important than getting the money. It will come to me anyway, but later.

Many times this has happened to me too.. even though my approach is much more incrementalist, but there can be price ranges in which I might either increase my BTC sales on the way up or increase my buys on the way down.. yet on the sales on the way up, the increased range might not end up getting executed or such increase range might ONLY partially get executed which causes a bit of frustration.. and then some level of additional patience comes from the deferred gratification.. that could take several months or even several years before BTC prices might return back to that price range in which the increased sales had been set up.

If we already have decently good cashflow management in place then we won't necessarily panic over some delays, yet people are at different places in their lives and there might be some reasons that they are specifically seeking certain levels of payouts on the way up, so then if their target is not reached then they might have to sell at lower levels.. .. so then right now, guys who have average costs of their BTC below $10k might not be willing to sell much if any cornz at $85k, yet if we were to spend a couple of years around this price, they might change their mind since they might decide to shave some off, even though it would have had been better to shave off at 12.5x profits, but they are then urged into shaving some off at ONLY 8.5x profits... that is of course, assuming that bitcoin is not dead and maybe the price will never recover?

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

There is a difference between confusion and differing perspectives.  

The mere fact that you posted some ideas (that were not even your own ideas) and theories about bitcoin's price drop does not mean that guys need to agree with that framework or that rationale or those facts, or even to address any of that, even if you happen to be the second smartest guy in bitcoin.

The 'funny' point is that our 'analyst' has posted today yesterday a link about what happened in October.
Some analyst...

[BTCETFInvestor]

If you want to ride the rocket, you got to be prepared to pull the G’s,” Michael Saylor said.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

okay so take advantage of the dip and when the results come in jan you will either be happy or sad.

People should at least be aware of what they’re gambling on. My only motivation for posting it.