Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

No it is not. $1.3 billion is nothing for the size of an asset like Bitcoin. There is plenty of liquidity to absorb that. In any case, the fewer people there are with such holdings the better.

Liquidity also depends on funding and interest rates, and the Fed still holds back a bit too much there. No clear signal, so there's more uncertainty and risk-avoidance.

Interesting times for Bitcoin, that's for sure.

[BTCETFInvestor]

If this Owen Gunden thing is real

Who?
Google tells me it's someone who sold 11k BTC since October, and finished the last part of his sale today. That raises 2 questions: 1. why doesn't an early Bitcoin investor care about his privacy, and 2. why is this relevant now, when a 80k BTC sale a while back only caused a small dip in price?

It is not relevant in my opinion. People are just trying to find a narrative that explains the market, and when they are desperate anything will do. Just a while back on X it was because quantum computers will break Bitcoin in a few years or some other nonsense that was being spread.  

After that BTC30k bearwhale i came to conclusion that technical genius is inversely related to financial knowledge.

That "slaying" took place at $300 per BTC, and the BTC price largely stayed below $300 for the next year after the purported "slaying."   The BTC price for most of 2015 was in the mid-$200s and even spending a decent amount of time time the lower $200s.. so there would have had been plenty of time for anyone selling for around $300 in October 2014 to buy back in, even though who knows if such buying back in had actually taken place for folks who were selling their cornz around $300 in late 2014.

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  
EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

and his 10 coins are now 840,000 not 1,260,000

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He will certainly appreciate that

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

In some sense, you seem to be referring to an aspect of opportunity costs, since sometimes the "what ifs" and the "could of" "should of" become difficult to quantify - so then with bitcoin over the years we have not ONLY accumulated and compounded value, there have also been a lot of ups and downs along the way that tempted us to sell too much too soon and/or to fail refuse to sufficiently prepare our holdings for UP that may or may not end up coming.

In the case of bitcoin, the UP did end up coming, and those who ongoingly took action to accumulate bitcoin and/or at least not to sell too much too soon, ended up profiting quite stupendously  - even though at the same time, arguably there are some of us who might have had chosen to take decently large profits at various points along the way and perhaps even did not accumulate nearly as many BTC as we could have had accumulated, yet even with some whimpiness and/or some mistakes in our bitcoin accumulation, we still ended up doing quite well with our bitcoin, seemingly largely because we were erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and/or holding most of our coin rather than taking large profits.

So for example, even if we might have had chosen to take 10% or 20% of our bitcoin off the table after the price had gone up 10x, it surely may well have had seemed like a lot of money to be taking off of the table, yet at the same time, we largely ended up preserving the overwhelming majority of our holdings, and perhaps we were able to engage in such "shaving off" of profits at a few stages in our bitcoin investment journey, and we still ended up doing fine, even if we could have had more BTC, our shaving off of "profits" was mostly reasonable and tempered in terms of our deciding to hang onto a large majority of our holdings.

Of course, on a personal level, I likely have not shaved off as much profits along the way as other guys, even though I do frequently talk about some of my inclinations to sharve off more profits from time to time... and there are also some guys here who are not so excited about the idea of selling any of our bitcoin holdings, but then it seems that if we want to enter into lending relationships, then we might be putting our bitcoin at risk in those kinds of arrangements, too, even though I understand the advantages of not having to pay taxes on the various sales of the cornz.

[edited out]

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

You are quite the smartie pants in your grappling with the topic, since you really told cAPSLOCK.   Didn't you?

In essence, you (BTCETFInvestor) have shown yourself to be a bit of a purposeful idiot in terms of not really understanding bitcoin very well (and promoting views in that direction to show your lack of understanding and/or appreciation of the value of the actual product rather than the derivative product).

You seem to believe (which I doubt that even you believe such nonsense) that investing in the derivative product brings value to the space in any kind of meaningful way (beyond allowing various third parties and likely status quo rich to attempt to manipulate the underlying), even though surely there are various ways that folks (institutions and governments too) are enticed into buying the derivative product rather than buying the thing that actually has value and is designed in such a way that you (they) don't need a third-party custodian in order to be able to hold it - even though ongoingly, quite a few folks are lured into such inferior product that might partially be an attack on bitcoin, to the extent that those various third-party custodians might be given undue weight in terms of their manipulation of the price with bitcoin that they don't have and/or might they at some point not get caught up on the wrong side of their manipulation attempts?

Haha - You are a wordy man full of shit and totally meaningless innuendo...

[OgNasty]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

[philipma1957]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

okay so take advantage of the dip and when the results come in jan you will either be happy or sad.

[JayJuanGee]

4. My sell ladders start at $125k - so it was bad luck so far for me, but i kept the coins, which is more important than getting the money. It will come to me anyway, but later.

Many times this has happened to me too.. even though my approach is much more incrementalist, but there can be price ranges in which I might either increase my BTC sales on the way up or increase my buys on the way down.. yet on the sales on the way up, the increased range might not end up getting executed or such increase range might ONLY partially get executed which causes a bit of frustration.. and then some level of additional patience comes from the deferred gratification.. that could take several months or even several years before BTC prices might return back to that price range in which the increased sales had been set up.

If we already have decently good cashflow management in place then we won't necessarily panic over some delays, yet people are at different places in their lives and there might be some reasons that they are specifically seeking certain levels of payouts on the way up, so then if their target is not reached then they might have to sell at lower levels.. .. so then right now, guys who have average costs of their BTC below $10k might not be willing to sell much if any cornz at $85k, yet if we were to spend a couple of years around this price, they might change their mind since they might decide to shave some off, even though it would have had been better to shave off at 12.5x profits, but they are then urged into shaving some off at ONLY 8.5x profits... that is of course, assuming that bitcoin is not dead and maybe the price will never recover?

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

There is a difference between confusion and differing perspectives. 

The mere fact that you posted some ideas (that were not even your own ideas) and theories about bitcoin's price drop does not mean that guys need to agree with that framework or that rationale or those facts, or even to address any of that, even if you happen to be the second smartest guy in bitcoin.

[Biodom]

4. My sell ladders start at $125k - so it was bad luck so far for me, but i kept the coins, which is more important than getting the money. It will come to me anyway, but later.

Many times this has happened to me too.. even though my approach is much more incrementalist, but there can be price ranges in which I might either increase my BTC sales on the way up or increase my buys on the way down.. yet on the sales on the way up, the increased range might not end up getting executed or such increase range might ONLY partially get executed which causes a bit of frustration.. and then some level of additional patience comes from the deferred gratification.. that could take several months or even several years before BTC prices might return back to that price range in which the increased sales had been set up.

If we already have decently good cashflow management in place then we won't necessarily panic over some delays, yet people are at different places in their lives and there might be some reasons that they are specifically seeking certain levels of payouts on the way up, so then if their target is not reached then they might have to sell at lower levels.. .. so then right now, guys who have average costs of their BTC below $10k might not be willing to sell much if any cornz at $85k, yet if we were to spend a couple of years around this price, they might change their mind since they might decide to shave some off, even though it would have had been better to shave off at 12.5x profits, but they are then urged into shaving some off at ONLY 8.5x profits... that is of course, assuming that bitcoin is not dead and maybe the price will never recover?

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

There is a difference between confusion and differing perspectives.  

The mere fact that you posted some ideas (that were not even your own ideas) and theories about bitcoin's price drop does not mean that guys need to agree with that framework or that rationale or those facts, or even to address any of that, even if you happen to be the second smartest guy in bitcoin.

The 'funny' point is that our 'analyst' has posted today yesterday a link about what happened in October.
Some analyst...

[BTCETFInvestor]

If you want to ride the rocket, you got to be prepared to pull the G’s,” Michael Saylor said.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

okay so take advantage of the dip and when the results come in jan you will either be happy or sad.

People should at least be aware of what they’re gambling on. My only motivation for posting it.

[OutOfMemory]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

That surely adds to it, too.

[philipma1957]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

well if the day of reckoning is jan 15th

the reaction is very early.


i will watch closely and I will dca with the mine and wait for more dip.

if we are headed into a big dump 50 to 60k.

  mining will drop a lot.

the margins for miners never came near the 2021+2022 numbers.

so mines do not have a ton of ability to hold.

3.43 cents a th means 3.43x270=926.1

9.26 for each s21xp.

it burns 85kwatts so 4.25 power cost for a 5 cent power guy.

thus the earn is 5 dollars a unit.

not counting staff
not counting maintenance
not counting tax on the building
not counting cost of the gear. 5k-7k for each one.

if we extend to jan 15 before we truly jump up miners may bail quite a bit.


we never had a miner bailing for since 2018.

as we went side ways in 2022 after the crash.

[Richy_T]

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…

*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

[Hermes Mercury]

Well, perhaps that's one of the reasons, but graphically speaking, prices are already tending to fall. So any impulse in that direction will cause prices to fall. All we can do is wait and try to take advantage of the situation.

[Biodom]

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…

*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

If MSCI does it, I will be taking all my funds out of Morgan Stanley, that's a promise, even though I have a minimal exposure to MSTR.

[BitHodlers]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

This is not much different from the story that involves the old whale selling. You are just giving your perspective, you do not know the truth. Please stop acting like you do, thanks.

yeah the handle over the few days was way more.

100 billion or more.

130
 97
 81
1o1

last 4 days.

and the 130 does not show the full day

The trading volumes are crazy and this does not even include any OTC. The market can definitely absorb these quantities without issue. It is not the cause of the drop, people confuse correlations with causation and also misplace the causation.

Liquidity also depends on funding and interest rates, and the Fed still holds back a bit too much there. No clear signal, so there's more uncertainty and risk-avoidance.

Interesting times for Bitcoin, that's for sure.

That is definitely true, I think we will see extremely better times as interest rates continue to get lower and close to 0. As I said this may have contributed to the already extreme fear that is going on. The FED is very split on December, but I do hope for at least .25

https://markets.financialcontent.com/talkmarkets/article/marketminute-2025-11-20-morgan-stanley-reverses-course-drops-december-fed-rate-cut-forecast-amid-resilient-economy

[Richy_T]

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He has no loss as he is out of the game. That kind of thinking leads to bad places.

[cAPSLOCK]

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

Simple ad hominem. You're very good at fallacies and non-arguments.

As to my wordiness, no. I did not learn this from JJG. I come by it myself.

[Biodom]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

People remember it not because he sold...i am sure quite a few people sold some anywhere between 5k and 7K back then.
It's just he sold everything and did not re-buy, at least initially...pretty sure that he bought later on because he sometimes posts on btctalk, just not here (under the same nickname, at least ).

[cAPSLOCK]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

I agree that this is *a* reason that Bitcoin has endured this pullback.  But I don't think it's the only one.

I am not a big fan of the Treasury companies and I'm not really a big fan of what Saylor is doing with Strategy.  At least not all the things. I think the creation of various derivative financial instruments is kind of gross and kind of just another paper Bitcoin.

Same with the ETFs as I have expressed.

Both of these things have trade-offs and bad and good things about them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com