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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 31 (36%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 21 (24.4%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 21 (24.4%)
No - other (explain below) - 13 (15.1%)
Total Voters: 86

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 27024203 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
philipma1957
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November 24, 2025, 04:16:22 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), promise444c5 (1)


taken from a moving car on the brooklyn queens expressway.

I would be driving from Brooklyn to NJ and put my hand out the window and take photos hoping to get exactly that shot.

homer did the hat a while back.
Wasn’t it you the first time?
Don’t forget to take a perfect shot anyways..

Yeah after 100 photos that missed and 2 or 3 months driving by I did the original shot.


https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/pulled-the-trigger-today-on-a-mac-studio.2455067/

This photo is also used on my macrumors account
JimboToronto
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November 24, 2025, 04:30:56 PM

Multiple wallets addresses bro.

Anyone with a btc or more  needs multiple wallets addresses.

ftfy
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November 24, 2025, 04:35:25 PM

Guys, guys I have a big secret about Bitcoin to share!
Don't tell us about it, maybe it would be for the better Grin
My secret is: Bitcoin is going to the mooooon! You've heard it here.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I hope you won't use your account to just try to shill something / use it with malicious intent.
I am a Bit holder, not a shitcoin peddler.  Wink
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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November 24, 2025, 04:46:28 PM

a secret person(s) has just been added to my ignore list
philipma1957
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November 24, 2025, 04:47:48 PM

Multiple wallets addresses bro.

Anyone with a btc or more  needs multiple wallets addresses.

ftfy

Wallets

Ie say:
 a core wallet
A trezor
An electrum

They can all have multiple addresses

And if you are USA based

You can have any combo of:
Kraken
Paypal
Coinbase

Just don't have too much on the exchanges
ChartBuddy
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November 24, 2025, 05:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
philipma1957
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November 24, 2025, 05:10:36 PM

[...]

We were in the town looking at a home to buy. WE will be leaving our Howell, New Jersey home.

This is the house we looked at it is only 1.1 miles from the bakery.

https://www.trulia.com/home/17-deerfield-trl-woodbine-nj-08270-52527781

Some one else grabbed it. It is a nice home.

Nice home. Much cheaper than I expected, given the size and looks.

Yeah 30 minutes from the jersey shore beaches and 40 minutes from Atlantic City.

It was a nice home. We will be moving to that area in 2026 or 2027.
ivomm
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November 24, 2025, 05:33:57 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (2), estenity (1)

THE REAL REASON BEHIND THE OCTOBER 10TH CRYPTO CRASH IS FINALLY OUT.

And it’s much bigger than what people thought.
For weeks, traders kept asking the same question:

"Why did the market collapse so violently on Oct 10 when there was no macro event, no ETF news, no exchange failure, nothing?"

Now we have the missing piece and it explains a lot.

1) MSCI quietly dropped a major update on Oct 10

On the same evening the crash began, MSCI released a consultation note that almost nobody in crypto paid attention to.

MSCI said they are reviewing how to classify companies whose main business involves accumulating Bitcoin or digital assets.

Key proposal:
- If digital assets = 50% or more of a company’s total assets
- And the company’s operating activity resembles a digital asset treasury

→ That company can be excluded from MSCI global indexes.
This directly puts several Bitcoin-heavy companies at risk, especially MicroStrategy.

2) Why this matters

If MSCI excludes these companies:

• Index funds are forced to sell
Funds tracking MSCI indices must remove these stocks.
They do not get to choose. This is literal forced institutional selling.

• MicroStrategy becomes a primary target
If MSTR is labeled fund-like, MSCI indexed funds could be forced to reduce or exit positions.

• When MSTR dumps → BTC reacts immediately
Like it or not, $MSTR is treated as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy.

If the stock shows weakness: confidence drops → Bitcoin correlation increases → retail panic accelerates → liquidations start hitting → BTC falls harder.

3) How this connects to the Oct 10 crash ?

The market was already fragile:
- Trump new tariffs
- Weak Nasdaq
- High leverage in BTC markets
- Fear of 4-year cycle top

When MSCI’s note dropped, it added a new type of structural risk that traders did not expect.

The fear was simple:
"If MSTR or similar companies get removed from MSCI, large funds will be forced to sell, what happens to Bitcoin then?"

This fear hit right into an already stressed market.
The result: one of the biggest liquidation waves in crypto history.

4) But there’s another layer: JPMorgan’s timing
3 days ago, JPMorgan published a bearish report highlighting the same MSCI risks, right when:

- MSTR was weak
- BTC was weak
- Liquidity was thin
- Sentiment was fragile
This amplified panic, causing a 14% dump in a few days.

And if you know JPMorgan’s history, you know this pattern:
They speak bearish when prices are weak.
They accumulate assets when retail is scared.
They publish bullish notes near tops.
Their timing is never random.
This is not a secret. This is standard Wall Street behavior.

5) Is JP Morgan manipulating the market?

Not illegally. But strategically, yes.

This is how big institutions operate:
- Push fear when liquidity is low
- Trigger panic
- Let weak hands sell
- Accumulate at a discount
- Turn bullish later

They’ve done it with metals. They’ve done it with bonds. They are doing it with Bitcoin.
This is not a cartel. This is Wall Street strategy.

6) Now the plot twist: Michael Saylor responds publicly
Right when MSCI fears started dominating headlines, Saylor dropped a detailed clarification:

"MicroStrategy is not a fund, not a trust, not a holding company. It is a publicly traded operating company with a $500M software business and a Bitcoin based treasury strategy."

He also highlighted:
- 5 new digital credit instruments ($STRK, $STRF, $STRD, $STRC, $STRE)
- $7.7B notional value issued this year
- Stretch ($STRC), the first Bitcoin backed variable yield credit instrument
- Ongoing software operations and financial product innovation

His message was simple:
"We are not passive holders. We are builders. We are innovating. Index labels do not define us."

7) So what does all this mean for the market?

✔ Oct 10 crash was NOT random
It aligns exactly with MSCI’s consultation release.

✔ Forced-selling fear created liquidity stress
Traders panicked because they assumed index funds might eventually dump large positions.

✔ JPMorgan amplified the fear
Their bearish note came at the perfect moment to shake markets further.

✔ Saylor finally cleared the air
His statement explained why MicroStrategy is fundamentally different from what MSCI is describing.

✔ But uncertainty remains
Final MSCI decision comes on 15 January 2026.
Policy goes into effect February 2026.

Between now and then? The market may price in more volatility.

Final Take:

The market did not crash because of a single event.
It crashed because one unexpected structural risk hit an already fragile system.
And large institutions used that moment to shape sentiment.

But the long term picture is simple:
Bitcoin adoption unchanged.
Corporate interest unchanged.
Saylor remains on track.
Institutions still building.
ETF flows will stabilize.
Liquidity cycles will return.
MSCI classification will not stop Bitcoin.

Fear creates opportunity. Narratives create volatility. But fundamentals do not change.
This is why the Oct 10 crash was violent and why it will be remembered as a technical panic, not a fundamental breakdown.

https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/1992611696855114043


🚨 FRUSTRATED JP MORGAN OUT OF CONTROL NOW 😡

Strike CEO Jack Mallers says JP Morgan shut down all his banking accounts with ZERO warning.

No reason.
No details.
Just “concerning activity”…
and “we can’t tell you.”

Tether CEO even replied:
“Bitcoin will survive.
These banks will turn to dust.”

They can shut accounts…
But they cannot stop crypto. 🔥



https://x.com/TheMoneyApe/status/1992926269357646000
JimboToronto
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November 24, 2025, 05:36:14 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1), DirtyKeyboard (1)

Multiple wallets addresses bro.

Anyone with a btc or more  needs multiple wallets addresses.

ftfy

Wallets

Ie say:
 a core wallet
A trezor
An electrum

They can all have multiple addresses

And if you are USA based

You can have any combo of:
Kraken
Paypal
Coinbase

Just don't have too much on the exchanges

You're missing the point I was trying to make.

I try to avoid having private keys on any electronic devices. "Wallet" programs are vulnerable.

The only wallet I use is Mycelium and I never keep any Bitcoin in it for longer than it takes to transfer it to other addresses.

I also don't lend my Bitcoin to exchanges that I don't know and trust personally, i.e. drinking and socializing with them. A firm handshake with a male or a good hug with a female exchange owner does wonders toward building trust. Even then it's always a minimal amount.
ChartBuddy
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November 24, 2025, 06:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
VB1001
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November 24, 2025, 06:17:27 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), JayJuanGee (2), vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1), DirtyKeyboard (1), Krubster (1)



I have deployed an automated gallery of hat avatars. The display order is randomized and non-repeating. Each avatar is shown with the corresponding name beneath it.

It's not that it's very useful, but it looks nice, or at least I think so. I enjoy glancing over and watching the hats slide by.

(I am currently missing a few hats, perhaps only five or six, but they will be uploaded soon. Apologies for any minor grammatical errors when applying the names. I will check the final result once the set is complete.)

https://www.wohats.com/
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November 24, 2025, 06:21:33 PM

a secret person(s) has just been added to my ignore list

Testing. Testing. One, two, three. Is this thing on?

<tap> <tap>
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Toodaloo! ..-. ..- -.-. -.- / -.-- --- ..-


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November 24, 2025, 06:22:37 PM
Last edit: November 24, 2025, 08:02:33 PM by BTCETFInvestor

Nice little $22K gain this morning on my 6,040 shares of Fidelity Ticker 'FBTC' spot Bitcoin ETF that perfectly tracks 5.2 BTC.



When Bitcoin reaches a price of $1million per coin my 6k shares of FBTC will be worth $5.2 million. Grin  
OutOfMemory
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November 24, 2025, 06:37:23 PM


🚨 FRUSTRATED JP MORGAN OUT OF CONTROL NOW 😡

Strike CEO Jack Mallers says JP Morgan shut down all his banking accounts with ZERO warning.

No reason.
No details.
Just “concerning activity”…
and “we can’t tell you.”

Tether CEO even replied:
“Bitcoin will survive.
These banks will turn to dust.”

They can shut accounts…
But they cannot stop crypto. 🔥



https://x.com/TheMoneyApe/status/1992926269357646000

First they laugh, then they fight, then they die....
Or how was it?
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November 24, 2025, 06:40:28 PM


taken from a moving car on the brooklyn queens expressway.

I would be driving from Brooklyn to NJ and put my hand out the window and take photos hoping to get exactly that shot.

homer did the hat a while back.
Wasn’t it you the first time?
Don’t forget to take a perfect shot anyways..

Yeah after 100 photos that missed and 2 or 3 months driving by I did the original shot.


https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/pulled-the-trigger-today-on-a-mac-studio.2455067/

This photo is also used on my macrumors account

I used to look at macrumors every day in the late nineties, early naughts when Apple was in more precarious position.
Much much less now, but I am considering a studio rn, albeit not for the node.
M3 ultra is expensive, but bulked up M4 max is getting there too.
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November 24, 2025, 06:43:02 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1), promise444c5 (1)

So tired of winning!
Anti-crypto debanking!
Orange man promised!









#haiku
Biodom
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November 24, 2025, 06:43:35 PM


🚨 FRUSTRATED JP MORGAN OUT OF CONTROL NOW 😡

Strike CEO Jack Mallers says JP Morgan shut down all his banking accounts with ZERO warning.

No reason.
No details.
Just “concerning activity”…
and “we can’t tell you.”

Tether CEO even replied:
“Bitcoin will survive.
These banks will turn to dust.”

They can shut accounts…
But they cannot stop crypto. 🔥



https://x.com/TheMoneyApe/status/1992926269357646000

First they laugh, then they fight, then they die....
Or how was it?

it's just simple institutional vengeance, imho.
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


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November 24, 2025, 06:47:27 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1), BitHodlers (1)

Only one whole coin?
What have you been doing, Phil?
Biltong you long time!

Of course, we should not need to provide any specifics in order to talk about how we might be progressing in our journey, and Phil's case might be nearly as frustrating to some of us as it is to him.

His story is that "I used to screw up,"  but I am getting better at not screwing up so much.

But then there is something wrong with the example of getting better.. .. since the level progress seems problematic in regards to keeping some of the same practices of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, yet if the selling on the way up has been modified to be smaller amounts, it is still problematic because the selling on the way up tends to be too much in terms of not enough time and/or profits have been allowed to build up prior to engaging in the selling on the way up.. .so sure some improvements might be recognized but they are not nearly enough in order to really take advantage of the power of mostly building up BTC and allowing it to ride a cycle or more before starting to tap into it..

How OGs do it:
They lock in their retirement,
Then play with the rest!

It might be a mentality thing, since there are some OGs that had been playing with their BTC while they were accumulating BTC and they somehow got lucky to still be holding way more BTC than they were playing with.

Some folks just cannot resit the temptation to play with large portions of their BTC.. but still moderation, moderation, moderation and in the case of bitcoin, the amount of BTC to play with likely would have had needed to be (and continuing so) quite small amounts in order to NOT screw up the advantages of mostly building (accumulating) and HODLing.  Easier said than done, perhaps?

Something is not sinking in.

Otherwise, I agree with the idea of mostly focusing on accumulating enough BTC to be largely "set for life" and then there can be flexibility after reaching those kinds of goals with at least a portion of the BTC holdings - and for those who cannot control their temptations to sell (or to play with their bitcoin), they would be good to get some mechanism where they are putting no more than 10% of their bitcoin size into shitcoins, trading and/or other bitcoin derivative products..

Yet it seems that many of those who like to play with their bitcoin, they don't usually have enough self-discipline to even be able to stick with a playing limit that is something like 10% of their BTC stack size (or stack value?).  There is only so much any of us can do once we have led the horse to the water, yet the horse has a mind (and will) of its own.

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.
It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.

Nice chart. By the look of it, it seems like we've bottomed out, or close to it.

Most of my net-worth is in bitcoin, and has been for many many years. I do however have a small trading stash that's all in cash right now. My buy orders are between $60-70k, but I might have missed the train this time.

Sometimes adjustments might be needed that would allow your already existing buy orders to move up to the current price so that you could justify that it is a good idea to buy at current prices rather than waiting for prices that are quite likely to not happen... I know.  I know.  Easier said than done... since sometimes any of us might have personally individualized justifications for what we are doing and for why we have set up our buy BTC versus sell BTC in the ways that we have set such things up.

Of course, many bitcoiners are going to concede that bitcoin is for everyone, so you cannot stop bitcoin from being used by anyone who wants to, friends and enemies.. yet at the same time, if what the various financial instrument folks (whether talking about Backrock and the various ETFs or Saylor/MSTR and the various treasury companies) are doing can be considered as a kind of an attack on foundational level bitcoin and undermines bitcoin becaus of an attempt to prioritize using bitcoin through their instruments and systems and to vilify bitcoin being used in direct peer to peer ways, there are good reasons to announce and even to complain about such attack, even if you consider such attack to be coming from "the good guys.".. not very often that we have money-grubbing "Blackrock" portrayed as the good guys, unless you are some kind of a blinded fan-boy.
I agree with your reasoning, but do we actually see this kind of attack taking place in the US? I don't see anything compared to places like EU where there is a war on sovereignty and privacy. I don't dabble in ETFs or treasury companies but I don't see them as rather bad in the context that they are. Many entities could not get any exposure to Bitcoin legally and that is what ETFs enabled. We just need to keep pushing the education on owning your own Bitcoin. We can't expect everyone to know the reasons to do this or be able to do this, slowly we can change some people.

These kinds of attacks that involve processing most, if not all, ok our transactions (which might well devolve into our custodial arrangements) remains a bit of a subtle and voluntary co-optation - so in some senses, we disempower ourselves in the aggregate through our individual choices to continue to choose convenience over privacy and autonomy.

For sure, the various third-party easy system to store and transact are going to go away, and sure, you are correct that some entities might not be able to easily self-custody something like bitcoin, so they are forced to go through third party services for both their custodial arrangements and/or their transacting arrangements.

So, surely ongoing awareness, use and building of peer to peer capacities remains important and perhaps even the expression of outrage in regards to some of the attacks on self-custody, sovereignty and/or privacy, such as what seems to have been the outcome of the Samauri case, and yeah, it is problematic to be embrassing and/or promoting the various third-party services while suggesting that they are better than the real bitcoin merely because they have the various perks that are going to suck a lot of people into using them.. .and yeah, maybe a lot of people will never get meaningfully damaged by using the various third-party services... even if the whole bitcoin system is undermined by widespread use.

It seems to me that if self-custody can credibly be threatened and/or even acted upon, the several of the third party custodians will be forced into acting more responsible in regards to their own reserves, which would result in less manipulation through the use of fake bitcoin.  We likely have noticed that most times when various third-party custodians go under, the damage tends to be put upon the users and the less powerful, so lessons are not frequently learned since people seems to be greedy (or desperate) for yield. and to either increase the rate that their bitcoin is appreciating or to try to speed up the appreciation of their bitcoin. .and we cannot completely squelch greed - even though we know that some of the third-party  custodian / services prey upon such greed to get coins so that they can manipulate.

Some folks are rightfully skeptical of Saylor/MSTR because of how much bitcoin that he/MSTR controls and based on some of their tactics of using other people's money to get bitcoin in which they completely own the bitcoin (even though they tend to keep their bitcoin with custodians, like Coinbase, which is another angle that Saylor/MSTR has been rightfully criticized).
They are using a variety of tactics. Not all are good but that doesn't mean that the overall thing is very bad or that risky.

I am not a MSTR/Saylor hater, even though sometimes I will criticize some of the things that he says, but yeah, he is offering some creative products that allow some entities and individuals to get exposure to bitcoin when they would have had otherwise not been able to get such access.  For sure, several of the imitators have been providing much inferior products and even sometimes if individuals try to copy various MSTR/Saylor tactics, they end up screwing up since they are not even close to as good as Saylor/MSTR in terms of making sure that they are not overly leveraging themselves.

On a personal investment level I think that it is way better to buy bitcoin directly and even buy for at least 4 years straight to then bring the personal cost per BTC to the 200-WMA or below and then to potentially keep investing straight in bitcoin, yet i don't necessarily find problems to allocate some smaller portion of a personal bitcoin portfolio (or investment portfolio) to some derivative products, shitcoins, trading.. and to probably have some self-imposed limits that might be in the 10% to 20% of the bitcoin size territory with less than 10% to any of the extra risk categories..and maybe 20% overall if there are a bunch of areas in which a guy might be choosing to dilute his bitcoin holdings with inferior products.

Of course, each person is free to choose their own level of risk and even to go beyond what i believe to be prudent if they have come to understand aspect of the areas in which they are choosing to allocate more than what i would think is a reasonable self-imposed limitation.  

They have little debt and obligations comparatively speaking to their total holdings. Some people think everything was bought with debt and BTC crashing a little harder would nuke Strategy. It is quite similar to the stupid death spiral type of FUD. These people that fall for this nonsense don't even do basic research, even if their name starts with Og.  Cheesy
Sure.  There are a lot of folks who have no fucking clue how MSTR/Saylor have structured its various debt instruments. I don't claim to know a lot either, even though I know that frequently MTR/Saylor naysayers frequently automatically think about collateralized loans, and I am pretty sure that none of MSTR/Saylor's debts are related to collateralizing the assets. and several of the past loans they paid off, which means that they own a lot of the BTC unencumbered.  Furthermore, if MSTR/Saylor happens to have some collateralized debt it would not be in amounts that are materially significant.
I don't know it all either but some basic research will lead to information where the total debt is very low compared to the total amount of coins and their value. Further it can be looked at the details of those debts and they are at very favorable rates and fairly long, the risk is quite low for what he has done. One thing I do wish is that they stop buying! They have enough, they are very large now! He should focus on advocacy and getting rid of those debts slowly and they will be a risk free company eventually.

For sure, Saylor/MSTR (probably mostly Saylor) has a very competitive kind of motivation, and there surely is something driving that guy that is beyond normal levels of prudence and his desire to gamble - even though he employs a lot of smart tactics (including not seeming to get to far over his skiis) in the use of other people's money, so it seems a bit crazy to suggest that he needs  to become more conservative in his approach, since that is not what he does and conservativism does not really exist in his personality (even if he may frequently try to present himself and his approach as if it were quite reasonable and conservative). Of course, he is within a range of reasonableness in his various choices, even if his reasonableness is different from the kind of reasonableness that others (including you and me and perhaps quite a few others) would end up choosing and pursuing.

Another thing that is presumed is that if the BTC price goes below MSTR's average cost per coin (which is around $77k) that MSTR saylor will have to do something, which are totally fantasy ideas.  If you completely own the coins then it does not matter if they are in profits or not, unless for some reason other obligations are not being met.
Saylor won't have to do anything in that case yes. Neither with these FUD nonsense about the stock being sold as it gets removed from indices. Even if the stock price of the company went to $0 it would not mean anything other than the market is crazy irrational, not that that is possible.

Yep. Saylor is not forced to do anything, and he can just let time play out and let the market do whatever it is going to do.. .since we know that various assets and even stocks can have prices that are outside of their true worth and sometimes stocks can be undervalued for many years before the market finally starts to appreciate the actual value... so of course, MSTR gets it value from both the BTC that it holds but also some of its underlying operations including its software business and also perhaps it's endeavors to study the BTC space and to identify products that it might be able to provid or inefficiencies that it might strive to exploit.

So....if Buffet's BRK-A is buying companies and invest >50% in OTHER companies stock, then it is NOT an investment fund, but if a DAT does the same (acquire assets), then it is a fund. It seems that this is a deeply flawed logic. Singling out digital assets makes no sense.
Things are happening behind the scenes, and this is just a corrupt decision as many others. There is no reason why it should be like this and the arbitrary cutoff at 50% is also suspicious.  Wink Unfortunately a lot of people are easily swayed and they are fighting internet wars on topics like this unknowingly playing into corrupt hands each time.

We might not even realize the various ways in which inclusion/exclusion takes place that ends up contributing to how passive money flows into some of the BIGGER players - so we might end up learning more about these matters, since of course, as far as I understand some of the investment history (and even the movement of investments into retirement funds as compared with pension funds in earlier times), various index funds have really come to dominate the investment space in the past 30-ish years... and so if more and more money is getting locked into passive investing through index funds, then we might not even realize how the behind the scenes powers are being weighted one way or another.
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November 24, 2025, 07:01:15 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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November 24, 2025, 07:20:04 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

So tired of winning!
Anti-crypto debanking!
Orange man promised!









#haiku


The banks are boiling
When will orange man step in?
When shit hits the fan?
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