Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[SmartBusiness001]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

It's not relevant (other than for US taxes) if a dividend is paid of retained earnings or not. It's a way to return capital to the investor (not return of initial investment!) regardless. Further you agree and reiterate my exact post while believing you are correcting it...

There is a difference between dividend payments and the return of capital. Dividend refers to the profits distributed to shareholders amongst others, which are sourced on the profits of the company. Return of capital on the other hand is the payment of part of the original investment of the shareholder and is independent of the profits of a company. Dividends will be disbursed to a company whenever they feel that they are unable to use gains in other ventures that will give them a higher profit. Return of capital, however, is not associated with profit, but a decline in the amount of invested money that is deposited. This proves to be a distinct difference between two that is usually clouded.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.

Yeah, this should be a thing to keep spirits high during the bear market (if we are indeed in one now).

Let’s post our buys in the bear market like Saylor does.

I will start to do it but not until we are below $65,000.

[wachtwoord]

Well, I didn’t think we would see the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world announce a strategic US dollar reserve after spending years talking about the dollar being a destroyer of value. In his defense though, Saylor said he would be buying the top forever. He never said anything about buying the bottom…

@OgNasty - It surprised me too that Saylor decided it was prudent to form a USD reserve for MSTR stock dividend payouts. I'm guessing he was advised by his CFO or outside counsel to make a USD reserve to protect the guarantee of payments for stock dividends. It may also have been needed as a check-the-box item for inclusion to the S&P 500.  

This type of company shouldn't pay a dividend, that's illogical (internal inconsistency of his pitch).

Dividend is a return of capital because the company doesn't have any higher roic options. Saylor claims to think bitcoin will go up by a lot (most of us here agree) so the cash that isn't needed to run the rest of the business should be deployed to by bitcoin, especially when the price is depressed.

You don't see Berkshire Hathaway or Markel pay a dividend now do you?

Paying a dividend is not the same as a return of capital. A dividend is a distribution payout from earnings or profits - it represents a share of the company’s net income being returned to shareholders.  A return of capital occurs when a company gives back part of your original investment. Companies will often pay dividends when they believe they don’t have better opportunities to reinvest retained earnings at a higher ROI. A dividend is a signal of profitability and sometimes of limited reinvestment opportunities. A return of capital is a reduction of your invested principal, not a profit distribution like a dividend is.

It's not relevant (other than for US taxes) if a dividend is paid of retained earnings or not. It's a way to return capital to the investor (not return of initial investment!) regardless. Further you agree and reiterate my exact post while believing you are correcting it...

While both dividends and ROC put money in the investor’s hands, a dividend is not usually considered a return of capital. It’s a way of sharing profits.

It's a way of returning working capital from being managed by the Corp to the investor. Again, the logical reason for this if redeployments with good ROIC dont exist for the company. Other reasons are bad reasons.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[wachtwoord]

Preferreds are always a complex half debt half equity security. But dividends can be halted without defaulting and often they can force convert to equity without defaulting. Unless very mispriced just buy real debt or real equity. Or you know avoid a company like this as you can just buy and hold btc yourself.

I am not going to presume that bitcoin is the ONLY way to hold value, and sometimes even inferior instruments can have useful roles when we are allocating them in reasonable ways.

Let's say that a guy is wanting to live off of various passive income sources and to achieve at least an $80k per year income and with a 7% increase in his income each year into perpetuity.

Even though he might have some other income sources besides his bitcoin, let's try to focus on bitcoin, since this is a bitcoin thread. 

From my own point of view, right now a guy with $80k per year aspirations, could completely live off of his bitcoin with a stash size of 14.3349 BTC.. .so let's say that the guy has the 14.3349 BTC, but he also has an additional 14.3349 BTC.. so he largely has twice as much BTC. 

He could experiment with the extra BTC, and yeah, he does not even need double his stash to experiment, since one portion of his BTC stash pretty much provides his total required income (or his target level).

Since he has a decent amount of surplus, he could play around with portions of his surpluses, and he could even have 5-14 different stashes of bitcoin that are doing different things and each sub-stash might consist of 0.5 BTC to 3 BTC, and then he just plugs those substashes into various MSTR financial products and sees how those financial products perform for him and maybe even producing other cashflows that he feels that he might not be able to get with other financial instruments that he could invest into... One of the advantages of reaching past our goals is that we have options... and even if we might find some of those tools to be more risky or more costly than others, we might still want to have products in our holdings that pay out in differing kinds of ways.

Diversifying your investments is fine. Buying strategy is hardly that as the majority of their value is the bitcoin portfolio (something you already hold directly do yourself and can continue to albeit perhaps not with their potential leverage, but is leverage really what you're after?) now with their alternative activities constituting a small portion. If you want to redeploy actually redeploy into a more uncorrelated income stream.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BitHodlers]

It is a very good strategy, that is why Tether is not going anywhere. As long as they keep themselves strongly invested in US treasuries they are protected. 

There is a certain level of desperateness that comes out with the various bitcoin FUD - which also relates to the Tether FUD, and the Tether FUD has been going on since right around the time of the New York State lawsuit, and there was a time that Tether's custodian had taken 100s of millions of dollars from Tether (and that robbery may well have had been backed by USA regulators).. and largely Tether has always been backed and even more backed than they tend to need to be - since they generally need to just be able to back all of the USDT with actual dollars in a run on the bank kind of a situation.. and USDT's liquidity had been tested in quite profound ways, including the various 2022 runs on various banks.. including Tether.

Of course, tether is quite profitable, and it likely has a lot of competitors, yet strength does end up propping up bitcoin to some extent and even propping up various shitcoins.. since at least the USDT half of any trade would end up having backing.. yet who knows about shitcoins, half the time.

Desperate and twisting, grasping at straws all the time. If it is not Tether, then it is quantum computers or Strategy going under in the most impossible way or some other stuff. How sad people's lives must be to be this emotionally involved in spreading FUD against something? Even if there is a financial incentive it still is sad, as it is extremely toxic to the person who is spreading it. A nice and peaceful life is not possible with thoughts of FUD circulating around a person's head, whether they are a sender of it or a believer in it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ESG]

-purchases below 70 *can(could) start in January.

*According to the old legend, mini Chinese who work inside the mines, keeping them running, which after being well used, are sold to consumers in the rest of the world...
...And they will spend it to celebrate January 29th! 
-if it's not that, it's something like that, I think...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[vapourminer]

SNOW DAY!

[philipma1957]

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.

hmm pretty good for you.

I did a lot more in the 81-89k range the last few weeks.

I will sit back and see how the world treats BTC for the rest of the month.

[d_eddie]

BACK TO THE HOUSE OF PAIN ===> /\$60K\/ LETS GO YOU MONKEYZZZXOXOXOXXX ;]] WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Holiday season
A season of surprises
Gembitz returning






#haiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[asUHWEceyc]

Expecting a legit dead cat (TG bart wasn't) or start of the next leg uppity around 12/13 per current minibear-usgubmint shutdown duration matching (43 days < 200dma). Upcoming postdiction narrative fitting events for fiat finance types:

2025/12/01      "QT dun!" -JP
2025/12/05      MSTR SP500 likely rejection
2025/12/10      FOMC 25bps FF rate cut  
2025/12/16      Nov US jobs report
2025/12/18      Nov US CPI report
by 2025/12/24  Trump Tariffs SC ruling
2026 Q1          Clarity Act

I expect a 10% or maybe even 15% dip in SP500, which could come either in December or January.
Reason: bitcoin always leads up or down...so, dividing 35% btc decline by a factor of 2-3 (to account for less SP500 volatility) gives us a 11.5-17.5% decline in SP500.

Most logical (to me) time frame for this to occur is immediately after the paltry 25bp rate cut.
However, WS will "fight" it as their yearly bonuses are predicated on the positive year close, so, in this case, maybe a 5% decline from the rate cut to Dec 31 with large daily gyrations and then another, say, 7-12% decline in January. No big deal.

Having said that, bitcoin might not be affected much as it had a significant decline already.
EDIT: Clarity Act is maybe when bitcoin would turn around, hopefully.
We shall see.

The only years S&P has returned -10%+ for Q4 were 1917, 1930, 1931, 1973, 1987, 2008 ¹

Perhaps You have a Nasty infection?

Bit-Coin is only down 4% for 2025 attotw. Many wees may miss the steep ride dudetat days but it's still easy bitcoininging to dig from here to a 10% annual "killer return" in a few weeks' work, even if it's ultimately given back in a January hour.

[El duderino_]

90 on the menu