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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26915367 times)
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December 02, 2025, 08:01:15 PM


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December 02, 2025, 08:16:09 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

-purchases below 70 *can(could) start in January.

*According to the old legend, mini Chinese who work inside the mines, keeping them running, which after being well used, are sold to consumers in the rest of the world...
...And they will spend it to celebrate January 29th! 
-if it's not that, it's something like that, I think...

I think that you are going to have fun staying poor if you are holding out for sub $70k in January or even any time after that.

We might be getting back into bettable territory.

Are you up to it?

Probably not... since you are fantasizing rather than willing to put money behind your pie in the sky thoughts.

I made my first monthly DCA buy now that I have a program in place and the price has retreated a bit from the all time high. I look forward to making this a monthly thing over this next cycle to make sure I capture the lows as we roll into a bear market. Somebody has to buy now that MSTR is talking usd dividends…

Today, I purchased 0.01442786 BTC for $1,246.38 at a price of $86,387.03 per BTC.
hmm pretty good for you.

I did a lot more in the 81-89k range the last few weeks.

I will sit back and see how the world treats BTC for the rest of the month.

I know the feeling of being sufficiently stocked up within a certain price range...

So, yeah, the passage of time (such as a whole month) can help to allow for a revisiting of the situation.

No one can really answer the balancing question for anyone else, since each of us are limited in our budgets and what we can do based on what we have, what we have coming in and what might be our various expenses in the near term or even our expected expenses projecting out.

90 on the menu
Bears shitting their pants panties  Grin

FTFY

We're largely back to where we were upon the end of the month dumpening..   Wouldn't that be an upsidedown bart?

Could be.  Could be.


Wacha gonna du?

Sell some?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

You are likely correct that some of them are just more levered, and I don't give any shits about those - even though surely some guys were drawn to desires to get more levered in their bitcoin position.

The fact of the matter is that I am not really interested in any of the MSTR products at the moment, yet if there are guaranteed payments, then those could be ways to attempt to get some kinds of an assured income stream from bitcoin and have differing accounting and/or tax treatments as compared with our selling our BTC and or maybe borrowing against our bitcoin.. or maybe lending out our bitcoin.

I recall my participation in the MSTR thread, and some members pumping up those MSTR products as if they were superior to holding bitcoin, and even some members rolling their eyes at me when I was saying that I was participating in talking about the products, yet i was not buying any of those products... and part of my own rationale has been my presumptions that holding actual BTC is better - even though surely there were periods of time that guys could have had gotten multiples if not magnitudes of returns over bitcoin by entering and exiting various MSTR products  - and from my own perspective, bitcoin has been bery bery good to me.. and so I see no reason for myself to try to get returns that are better than returns that I have historically gotten or returns that are continuing to be likely to be coming to me (and anyone else who is in bitcoin or gets into bitcoin) merely by holding bitcoin and especially holding bitcoin in self-custodial kinds of ways.
I understand your position but want to emphasize dividends are never guaranteed. Nothing ever is of course, nor are debt holders, but equity holders are literally paid LAST after everyone else. Preferred holders are only one step higher on the capital structure and as said both equity and preferred non-payments aren't even defaults and fully allowed.

Saying he guarantees such payments are just words and as best a declaration of intent.

Many of us work our whole lives and we seek a kind of guaranteed payment, and there have frequently been products that are structured for us to buy them and then they make assertions regarding how much they are going to pay (or guarantee to pay) for a period of time (that is presumptively the rest of our lives) or even indefinitely and can be passed onto heirs.

When guys enter into relations with their financial advisors, traditionally, they had been likely striving to structure their various assets into various products so that they can at least pay out 4% per year and never end up getting depleted.. so there is both an implication that the underlying is performing on average equal to or greater than 4% and there is also a certain level of presumption that the denominator is not changing along the way, even though many of us in bitcoin are likely coming to realize that the level of debasement of the denominator is and has been greater than we might have historically considered it to be.. many times presuming ONLY a 2% debasement of the dollar in the west and surely other currencies have debased at even more of a larger annual rate than the dollar in the past 30-50 years.

And if you are/someone is looking for diversification this isn't it either because exactly when the bitcoin price is depressed it's most likely Strategy won't be able to pay.

I had given some scenarios in which only small percentages might be placed into something like MSTR.

I personally consider that my own bitcoin sustainable withdrawal ideas are much stronger, especially for guys who have a cushion.. yet even sustainable withdrawal could still work out quite well, even for guys without a cushion.. and yeah of course nothing is completely guaranteed, which frequently is one of the reasons that guys will make sure that they have sufficient and adequate cushions... so that there investment is still growing, even if they are living off of it and ongoingly withdrawing from it... so the underlying principle is likely growing faster than the withdrawal rate.

For more "guaranteed" cash flows go higher up the capital structure. In general, the lower the risk the more guaranteed the cash flow is but the lower the return. Triple A short term US debt is likely the most guaranteed cash flow you can achieve (denoted in USD of course).

My advice? If you need income from your bitcoin sometimes sell a little (or spend it directly).

Sure.  I already have presumed the use of the bitcoin holdings as the best and most preferable strategy, especially getting to overaccumulation status that is sufficiently large to account for a variety of circumstances, yet there can also be other kinds of cashflow sources, especially for periods that bitcoin is down and maybe there might be preferences to not draw from bitcoin during down periods.

Other sales and reinvestments are for diversification only and should be judged on the quality of the investment and correlation to your other investments, not whether or not it produces a cash flow (irrelevant). Again: unless you have tax reasons to deviate but that depends on where you live.

Guys may well have a variety of cashflow systems that follow them into their old age, and some of them might be "guaranteed" under the law (of course, until rug-pulled), and others might be based on private systems.. and so some of them might be considered to have withdrawal rates that are traditional (such as 4% per year), and then others might have higher withdrawal rates.  I personally think that bitcoin is sustainably withdrawn at 10% of the 200-WMA dollar rate... and, surely guys could consider withdrawing bitcoin at a much lower rate so that they are not depleting it faster than it is growing.

If we have a pool of various funds or a diversified investment portfolio, we could choose to withdraw from all of them at the same rate (for example 4 %) or we could adjust our withdrawal depending on the asset... and yeah, we may or may not end up getting them correct.

Over the years, I have already had some asset funds that I have been withdrawing from and most of them are not bitcoin related, even though I have had some systems in place for withdrawing from bitcoin too. .both price based and timebased... which I largely outline in my sustainable withdrawal thread, even though over the years, I have made some changes in my own thinking on the topic too.. even though largely I have various systems in which I practice what I preach..

You may well have your own ideas in regards to how much you would like to allocate your own assets into various kinds of products, and there is quite a bit of discretion in these matters, especially if some of the items might not even be the expected primary source of income... Any of us might have various forms of income and we might even have some forms of income that we might considered to be largely guaranteed, even though we may well also recognize that they are being ongoingly debased, so their payouts might be the same (or even increasing on an annual basis in nominal terms), yet we still have to account for our costs of living and/or changes in our cost of living in real terms and not in nominal terms, and there surely can be cases in which guys have way more money than they need in their old age, and the worse situation would be to outlive our money, which we likely need to have various hedges in regards to the dangers of outliving our money.

I am not going to claim to know all of the answers, even though guys have to make these choices for themselves and/or through the help of investment advisors who are hopefully not steering them in a wrong direction.. Another thing with having extra, it is a good thing, yet even with bitcoin, we might need to have some cautionary aspects in regards to how we are custodying it, and even guys who might believe they have all their shit figured out, they might need to have some back up plans that entrust information to other folks, in the event that they might want their coins to be accessable upon their death or their incapacitation.
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December 02, 2025, 08:24:04 PM

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.


or is it just Bart Simpson playing?
maybe I should start trading Cheesy
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December 02, 2025, 08:24:49 PM


I want eggs in my instant ramen again
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December 02, 2025, 08:26:59 PM

Meanwhile, we've debarted the whole monthly opening collapse. Psychotic, bipolar ants doing whatever crosses their little minds?

either i did very well or purchased way too fast.

yeah we could well bart the de-bart and go down again
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December 02, 2025, 08:29:27 PM

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.


or is it just Bart Simpson playing?
maybe I should start trading Cheesy
yeah, I remembered this post. I thought the same thing at the time too.  And I don't know if you're like me, but I've noticed I'm pretty good at feeling out these things if I'm not trading. But once I start putting money into the thing, the signal goes away and all I have is noise.

Could be just my confirmation bias, running.
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December 02, 2025, 08:41:26 PM

A glimmer of hope?
This pipe ain't no stainless steel.
Pepper your anus!

#barebackhaiku

Speaking about pipes and anuses: it's gay xmas card season soon! Get ready for the huge green dildo!  Grin
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December 02, 2025, 08:48:16 PM

Meanwhile, we've debarted the whole monthly opening collapse. Psychotic, bipolar ants doing whatever crosses their little minds?
either i did very well or purchased way too fast.

Not a good sign when you are having doubts, which to me, seems to show that you continue to be focused on the price way more than it would be for your own good... .

but, hey, what do I know about your own good, except that you are sharing it with "us" and some newbie bitcoiners could be badly influenced in regards to their own accumulation of bitcoin.

Even non-newbies (I have seen some of dem in dis here fine thread) can end up being influenced to put too much emphasis on both the current price and where it might be going in the short-to-medium term, when they should be focused on ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive accumulation of dee cornz.

By the way, on the topic of purchasing too fast, I am not sure if it is possible... sure it could be, in theory.

There surely are guys who have been buying all the way down since $126k.. maybe they started buying around $120k.. so some of them might have run out of money in their ongoing buying on the way down... then at the point that they run out of money, they are only able to wait for their next pay day, whether that is weekly, bi-weekly, monthly or some other interval of time.

I'm moving away from posting detailed math explanations on Wordpress and posting brief updates and new charts on Substack.
https://substack.com/@michaelrobinson127536
Since the cycle is past the top and now we're in bear territory, I've been working on getting the algo to generate a buy signal; i.e., identify the capitulations.  You'd expect bottoms to come a half cycle after the tops, but they're actually a quarter cycle out of phase, weirdly.  I don't have an explanation for that.  I'm just proceeding empirically and going with it.

You are proceeding empirically and presuming a bear cycle based on a 36% price drop from our ATH in less than 2 months?

I would not consider your empirical to be very strong, except maybe like some other beartwats, you consider that bitcoin happens to be on a schedule.. .. which surely is empirical, even though it is likely wrong.

Let's see what happens with your supposed "bear territory," and yeah, maybe you are "loosely" using such "bear" term.

From your point of view, is there a difference between "bear territory" and "bear market?"  or are you just trying to flip flop between bear and bull as if bitcoin were to work in such a flippening and floppening kind of a way?

You need a batslap (or maybe a bullslap) for merely proclaiming that bitcoin is empirically in bear territory.. whatever that means?

The substack post titled "BTC buy and sell signals" has a chart showing the backtest of the new buy signal generator.
The chart in the "BTC capitulation signal" post is from a spreadsheet that estimates the time of the next capitulation.

You trade on this nonsense?  Perhaps that is part of the problem in your thinking since you seem to not know (or recognize) that bitcoin is always a buy signal until you have enough or more than enough.  Once you reach "enough" or "more than enough" then there might develop more flexibility in regards to when to add more cornz to the stack .. perhaps?

Another thing.  You have been registered on the forum a year longer than me, and you seem to still consider fucking around with figuring out price waves is a helpful way to deal with your holdings?  I get the sense that you would have had been way better off if you were to have had been just blindly buying $10 of bitcoin per week rather than whatever screwing around that you have been doing with trading over the past 12.5-ish years...

Hopefully, for your own good, you are not acting upon your nonsense views of the BTC price, but instead just making sure that you have enough or more than enough coin.  #justsaying

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.
or is it just Bart Simpson playing?
maybe I should start trading Cheesy
For your own good.

Don't do it.

Get off the ledge, Gachapin!!!!!    Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry

 You will thank me later.

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 02, 2025, 09:01:16 PM


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December 02, 2025, 09:07:19 PM
Merited by Hottiek (1)

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.


or is it just Bart Simpson playing?
maybe I should start trading Cheesy
yeah, I remembered this post. I thought the same thing at the time too.  And I don't know if you're like me, but I've noticed I'm pretty good at feeling out these things if I'm not trading. But once I start putting money into the thing, the signal goes away and all I have is noise.

Could be just my confirmation bias, running.

same here! When I start trading it effects my senses. Lost quite a few coins trying to make more in 2015-16, so I learned my lesson
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December 02, 2025, 09:09:46 PM

Expecting a legit dead cat (TG bart wasn't) or start of the next leg uppity around 12/13 per current minibear-usgubmint shutdown duration matching (43 days < 200dma). Upcoming postdiction narrative fitting events for fiat finance types:

2025/12/01      "QT dun!" -JP
2025/12/05      MSTR SP500 likely rejection
2025/12/10      FOMC 25bps FF rate cut  
2025/12/16      Nov US jobs report
2025/12/18      Nov US CPI report
by 2025/12/24  Trump Tariffs SC ruling
2026 Q1          Clarity Act

I expect a 10% or maybe even 15% dip in SP500, which could come either in December or January.
Reason: bitcoin always leads up or down...so, dividing 35% btc decline by a factor of 2-3 (to account for less SP500 volatility) gives us a 11.5-17.5% decline in SP500.

Most logical (to me) time frame for this to occur is immediately after the paltry 25bp rate cut.
However, WS will "fight" it as their yearly bonuses are predicated on the positive year close, so, in this case, maybe a 5% decline from the rate cut to Dec 31 with large daily gyrations and then another, say, 7-12% decline in January. No big deal.

Having said that, bitcoin might not be affected much as it had a significant decline already.
EDIT: Clarity Act is maybe when bitcoin would turn around, hopefully.
We shall see.

The only years S&P has returned -10%+ for Q4 were 1917, 1930, 1931, 1973, 1987, 2008 1

Perhaps You have a Nasty infection?

Bit-Coin is only down 4% for 2025 attotw. Many wees may miss the steep ride dudetat days but it's still easy bitcoininging to dig from here to a 10% annual "killer return" in a few weeks' work, even if it's ultimately given back in a January hour.

Well...if you read toward the end of my post, I qualify with a 5% SP500 down in Dec and maybe another 6.5-12.5% in January.
Stock market is due for a plunge, imho.
BTW, SP500 going down 5% in Dec would bring it yearly return to 10.86% (counting from the time of my original post), nothing scandalous.
Even 10% drop would still leave it positive 5.86% for the year.
Nasty infection does not sound right in English, lol.
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December 02, 2025, 09:11:03 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1), serveria.com (1)

I'm moving away from posting detailed math explanations on Wordpress and posting brief updates and new charts on Substack.
https://substack.com/@michaelrobinson127536
Since the cycle is past the top and now we're in bear territory, I've been working on getting the algo to generate a buy signal; i.e., identify the capitulations.  You'd expect bottoms to come a half cycle after the tops, but they're actually a quarter cycle out of phase, weirdly.  I don't have an explanation for that.  I'm just proceeding empirically and going with it.
The substack post titled "BTC buy and sell signals" has a chart showing the backtest of the new buy signal generator.
The chart in the "BTC capitulation signal" post is from a spreadsheet that estimates the time of the next capitulation.

I have an explanation...there are no four year cycles any longer and shouldn't be.
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December 02, 2025, 09:39:50 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

I don't know if it's been mentioned here yet, but it seems Vanguard has finally bent the knee to Bitcoin.
(or at least the bullshit derivatives that the big boys are using in part to control the price. But you know...)

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025120267/vanguard-finally-dips-a-toe-into-crypto-waters-as-bitcoins-bounce-goes-past-91000
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December 02, 2025, 09:42:16 PM

A glimmer of hope?
This pipe ain't no stainless steel.
Pepper your anus!

#barebackhaiku

A masterpiece IMO. Quoted for posterity  Smiley
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December 02, 2025, 09:45:59 PM

I don't know if it's been mentioned here yet, but it seems Vanguard has finally bent the knee to Bitcoin.
(or at least the bullshit derivatives that the big boys are using in part to control the price. But you know...)

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025120267/vanguard-finally-dips-a-toe-into-crypto-waters-as-bitcoins-bounce-goes-past-91000

Not sure it's been posted here either, but I've seen this confirmed by several online sources, so it's likely true.
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December 02, 2025, 09:56:07 PM
Last edit: December 03, 2025, 06:22:23 AM by fillippone


Explanation
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I am observing a good Wall, Buddy.
Time to rip through it.
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December 02, 2025, 10:00:17 PM
Last edit: December 04, 2025, 08:24:08 PM by ESG

~~
I think that you are going to have fun staying poor if you are holding out for sub $70k in January or even any time after that.

We might be getting back into bettable territory.

Are you up to it?

Probably not... since you are fantasizing rather than willing to put money behind your pie in the sky thoughts.

-=>>>>>>I didn't want to, but I'll answer you.,!

 You have already assumed that you are not here to help neither me nor anyone else, although I agree with your DCA method.,/ you have already lost your bet, because, in case you don't know, there are sub cycles, and not just a 4-year cycle, if you analyze it well, btc has an annual cycle, and new highs, only from August 2026, which may not be so new highs. So, if I were you, I would already pay your lost bet and stop trolling the people who are here without the objective of trolling anyone,, and yes, do your trolling service with those who are trolling, I agree with your professionalism in trolling those who need it.,

-One more thing for you: The Moon is almost full, and after the full moon comes the waning moon!

Quote from: Moon Phase Today

 The approximate distance from Earth to the Moon is 359,656 km and 2.1 days left to the next phase (Full Moon).





>>>Warning!!!

.... It is also likely a rebounce between 100~110, when this happens, don't come all cheerful and say that the price will reach a new high before the end of your bet, because it won't be!!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-There's also news going on today, that Saylor will make his BTCs available for rent... I have links, but I won't let them. because I don't trust...
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December 02, 2025, 10:04:05 PM

That felt like a 2018 style inverse Bart.

or is it just Bart Simpson playing?
maybe I should start trading Cheesy
yeah, I remembered this post. I thought the same thing at the time too.  And I don't know if you're like me, but I've noticed I'm pretty good at feeling out these things if I'm not trading. But once I start putting money into the thing, the signal goes away and all I have is noise.

Could be just my confirmation bias, running.

same here! When I start trading it effects my senses. Lost quite a few coins trying to make more in 2015-16, so I learned my lesson

I agree it is a bad idea to trade in order to try and get more BTC. For me personally, I sell BTC in order to attempt to keep my investments and income streams somewhat diversified. Hard to do when Bitcoin blows everything else away. Forget about it for a cycle or two and suddenly it is a majority of your net worth.
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