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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26912664 times)
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asUHWEceyc
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December 08, 2025, 04:18:52 AM

hit the bitcoin crack pipe 7 days
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December 08, 2025, 04:19:22 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (2)

A theoretical question...what bitcoin would do if stock market would have another lost decade from here (2026-2036)?

The last time it happened in US was from 2000 to 2012 (with a tiny bump slightly above in 2007).
In 2000 CAPE was very high (44-45). We are currently at 40.76 (the second highest value):
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
I found an interesting video that suggests that overall stock returns would be poor in US in the next 1,3,5 and 10 years (I am linking exactly at the time they show the table, so just screenshot it for a reference):
https://youtu.be/yM2crV_APho?t=1
Interestingly, during that prior period (2000-20011/12), gold and Monster (MNST) performed spectacularly, so, maybe bitcoin would be like these two in the next 10-12 years?

This would be nice.

I am increasingly looking at how much bitcoin is being attempted to be manipulated into merely a vehicle of various stocks, and if bitcoin does not keep some meaningful percentage of direct custody and direct abilities to transact, then bitcoin will lose some of its value through its loss of power.. Bitcoin is not like any other asset, yet there are ongoing attempts to channel it in such ways.. including that if the only ways that we get in and out of our bitcoin is by using custodial services (such as exchanges), then how can we confirm that our bitcoin has value and will not be locked at the time we try to cash out some of it or all of it?

Remember you, Biodom, criticizing me so  frequently because of my ongoing using of the exchange services, yet guys who are not using the exchange services, they might be more vulnerable.. and of course if it is easy to transact in bitcoin, then that would be less of a problem, yet what kinds of BIG things can we buy with our bitcoin and have the seller of the goods or services agree without having to worry about paperwork?..

Yeah, if you know the guy it might be safer, versus a vender maybe being worried if he might sell you a Lambo (or some other exotic - or expensive) car with bitcoin, same with the Yacht or the Airplane.. and yeah maybe it would be good for smaller items to be transactable, but going through Cash App is quite channeled through "official channels" as compared with private wallet to private wallet.  Maybe the BIG Blockers are saying I told you so... we have to have abilities to transact, and I never said that we did not need abilities to transact, even though it was getting irritating hearing from the BIG blockers in 2017 and 2018 and probably for a decent amount of time after that, too... even though there is onchain and there is also lightning network too.. besides some of the custodian services such as Cash App.

Sure bitcoin has some of its price performance dependency that is based on liquidity yet bitcoin is not going to necessarily perform the same as various stocks or even other assets that might be more encumbered as compared with how bitcoin could be - even though I just keep seeing ongoing government imposed encumbrances on bitcoin. .I am not sure if Trump is helping in that regard.. so far.. Hostility towards Samuari developers does not help peer to peer sentiment.

@nutildah - Yeah, I get it alright but he said he was super familiar with the Winston-Salem, NC area and once upon a time played in a local bar there so I think it was fair to ask if he ever lived there.

Hell, I lived there years ago myself! I don't mind sharing that... It's no big deal - it's a big place with over 700k population in the metro area...

It is a BIG deal.  Don't be fucking around so much asking OpSec questions.. You are not exactly trusted in these here parts, and guys should not be giving away so much OpSec - merely because Philip does not seem to mind giving away too much OpSec.

We could not even transact with you because you don't know how to transact using bitcoin... not that "we" would (or should) want to.
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December 08, 2025, 04:58:14 AM

The last time it happened in US was from 2000 to 2012 (with a tiny bump slightly above in 2007).
A return to historical fair value for ie housing via 08 (lost decade lynch pin) is perhaps preferable to the present day predicament of 100k salary renter-poors

Whatever happens moving forward, it's clear the solution will again always be papering over to a larger degree, from which Bit-Coin will benefit reflexively
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December 08, 2025, 05:06:55 AM

How long did you smoke for? 

I first started in the late 1950s smoking cigarettes under a bridge that my buddy swiped from his grandmother's cartons.
I mostly smoked cigars in the early 1960s to have an excuse to get out of the house (my mother hated the smell). By the late 1960s I was smoking cigarettes again. By the 1970s I was smoking multiple packs a day. I quit for a couple of years until my mother had a terrible  motor accident which almost killed her and left her blind for life. The stress of the hospital waiting rooms led me to starting again. After a couple of years I quit again but got cocky and slipped back into smoking after stealing tokes from my girlfriend's cigarette. Soon I was hitting in every smoke she lit and she told me to fuck off and smoke my own. That was why I was so disgusted with myself for not figuring out that all I had to do was nothing.
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December 08, 2025, 05:37:22 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Small amounts of alcohol daily have been shown to have significant health benefits.

I believe the latest info has it appearing that those benefits were illusory and that alcohol has no positive physical benefits.

I have all but given up on drinking the stuff. Not for any particular reason other than the extension of hangovers to two days with increasing age made it just no longer an attractive proposition. Though I did fancy a brew a month or two back and the inflation of the intervening years gave me severe sticker shock.
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December 08, 2025, 06:01:26 AM


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December 08, 2025, 08:49:08 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1), OutOfMemory (1)


@nutildah - Yeah, I get it alright but he said he was super familiar with the Winston-Salem, NC area and once upon a time played in a local bar there so I think it was fair to ask if he ever lived there.

Hell, I lived there years ago myself! I don't mind sharing that... It's no big deal - it's a big place with over 700k population in the metro area...


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December 08, 2025, 09:01:16 AM


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December 08, 2025, 09:15:37 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2025, 07:03:22 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Lucius (1)

[...]

[edited out]
Sorry to hear it too... When my dad passed away, a friend who didn't know the cause of death offered me a cigarette "to ease the pain"... I don't know why people smoke, maybe it's the nicotine, the habit, something in their lives. To me it seems so absurd... But then again, so are some of the things I do, so... I guess... Everyone has their own demons...

Surely vaping is the big thing these days, and there is likely quite bit of lacking in disclosures in regards to what is inside of a lot of the vaping inserts.  There was some issues in which the governments had screwed up being able to regulate them due to the way they went about it, and so now vaping is the wild, wild west of products that folks put into their bodies.  

I cannot imagine that vaping is not addictive, yet we likely do not know the exact ingredients of a lot of the products that are out their and being inhaled by normies - and surely people consider it cool to vape, and maybe even to smells better than cigarrettes.. with some built-in bonus "side effects" too.

I cannot imagine that vaping is not addictive, yet we likely do not know the exact ingredients of a lot of the products that are out their and being inhaled by normies - and surely people consider it cool to vape, and maybe even to smells better than cigarrettes.. with some built-in bonus "side effects" too.

i switched from real cigs to vaping to ostentatiously help "quit" cigs and guess what.. i liked vaping the high end juice in sub ohm cloud machine vapes, loved it, and i got to the point of adding more and more nicotine to my juice manually. and i loved the taste and hit, so i wound up with waaaay more nicotine intake on a daily basis, just less soot i guess.

like thats quiting?? lol

so i stopped cold turkey. had a lot of nice vape stuff i tossed out.

The geek in me is very much attracted to the various vapes out there. I like the little LCD screens, the heaters, refilling, cleaning, and maintaining them. If I was a smoker, I would definitely play with these little machines. Fortunately, there are loads of cool gadgets for non-smokers out there, to satisfy my tech cravings. But I often see vaper friends and like their vapes a lot. Some of them are works of art, metal+glass+leather, and very beautifully designed.

Then there are the health issues. How safe are they? I guess they must be safer than real cigarettes, as there is no direct flame and no paper involved in the burning, although the vape heater still heats up the liquid. Also, they feel better for non-smokers that are close to vapers. Personally, I don't mind much about smokers smoking near me, I grew up with smoker parents, so I've had my fair share of passive smoking in my life. Got used to it. Now they're both gone, I can appreciate the cleanliness in a non-smoker house. The walls, and other items in the house stay clean and bright/white, instead of the yellow tint they had when my parents were around.

I don't like smoking as a concept/idea. I think there is a huge industry behind it, promoting it, purely for profit, relying on its addictive properties. I remember I watched a documentary about how, in the USA, the tobacco companies had tasked a famous advertiser to promote smoking to women, because at the time it was predominantly men who smoked. They succeeded, and women started smoking too, and it has stayed like this even today, all over the world. These companies did huge damage to the world. The image of a woman, or even worse, a girl smoking is repulsive to me. It steals away their femininity, makes them "dirty" in my mind. No offense to women smokers out there, but that's just how I feel. I've never dated and would probably never date a smoker -- it wouldn't work for me. I should add that, in a LHB scenario, I can see a working girl smoking as a kind of attraction, and yes, I'd probably be attracted to her, but only for the sexual pleasure, I wouldn't want to date or marry her...


Small amounts of alcohol daily have been shown to have significant health benefits.

I believe the latest info has it appearing that those benefits were illusory and that alcohol has no positive physical benefits.

I have all but given up on drinking the stuff. Not for any particular reason other than the extension of hangovers to two days with increasing age made it just no longer an attractive proposition. Though I did fancy a brew a month or two back and the inflation of the intervening years gave me severe sticker shock.

Despite my user name here in WO, I'm a firm opponent of alcohol. There is no alcoholic drink in my house right now, and never was, except the occasional can of beer that sometimes I get offered as a free gift to try in supermarkets (I have one in my fridge, sitting there for months). I do drink beer, or even wine sometimes, when out dining with friends, but not to the point of getting drunk. Not even to the point of feeling the alcohol in me. I drink for the taste and refreshing feeling (of beer), especially in the summer. Always with friends, absolutely never alone.

I think alcohol does more harm than good, if it does any good at all. I've heard/read somewhere that it permanently kills neurons in the brain. But because we have literally trillions of neurons, and because of the way those neural networks work, killing a few (hundreds? millions?) does not have an immediate effect, but the effect is cumulative and [may be] irreversible. So, think of drinking alcohol as a way to progressively, over the course of many years, getting dumber and dumber... No, thanks.

Edit: I Googled about the bold text above, and it seems that alcohol does not directly kill neurons in the brain. It doesn't kill neurons, but it damages the connections between neurons, so it's still bad for the brain. Also, this happens regardless of dosage, so even small amounts can be harmful. The damage may be reversible if the dosage is small, but not if it is higher. Regardless, it's definitely bad for the brain.

Speaking of alcohol, I've been watching some of those YouTube police body-cam videos, where they pull cars over and arrest the drivers for DUI. I see these people drive their cars completely plastered, not even being able to speak, let alone drive safely, and I wonder... How do these people end up like this? Is alcohol really so addictive? The reason this really puzzles me, is that, when I was young, like in my 20s, as a student, I did drink, and quire heavily I must say. Again, always with friends, never alone, but I drank a lot, sometimes to the point of passing out and being carried to my home, and waking up in bed not remembering anything. Yet, after doing this for some time, maybe 2-3 years, I never really felt addicted to it. When I finished my studies, those heavy drinking sessions slowly decreased until they stopped completely. Never felt the urge to drink again like that.

I guess it depends on the individual, and their life experiences, and the feeling that they get from drinking alcohol, and how this feeling kind of fills a gap, a missing piece in their lives. For me, getting drunk from alcohol or high from drugs is just an illusion, like an artificially induced euphoria that has no real substance. All those chemically induced euphoric feelings and rush can be fun to experience, and I'm not against it for casual, recreational use, but those substances, including alcohol, can become very addictive when they serve as an escape from something bad. They shouldn't be needed, but they are to some of us. And if they are needed, one has to ask why, and try to fill that missing gap in their lives with something worthy, meaningful and substantive, rather than pumping chemicals that temporarily patch it, just for a quick fix. It may be the easy way out, but it's destructive and an admission of weakness and defeat. At least that's how I see it.

Having said all of the above, I can't wait for Phil to have a 140+ proof drinking session (with photos to prove it), gratefully sacrificing his liver for the WO community. After all, it's not the alcohol, it's the hopium that we're all addicted to in these here parts, and there's no cure for it...
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December 08, 2025, 12:54:21 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

I have all but given up on drinking the stuff. Not for any particular reason other than the extension of hangovers to two days

I haven't had a hangover in over 10 years, probably closer to 20.
As someone here mentioned, "It's the dose that makes the poison" (Paracelsus).
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December 08, 2025, 02:26:32 PM
Last edit: December 08, 2025, 02:53:56 PM by ESG
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 I have been addicted to cigarettes (tobacco) for a long time, since I was a child I secretly took the butts that my grandfather threw around the yard.....I've had a lot of problems with coke and crack, I've lived a few times on the streets... I don't know why some reasons inspire us to destroy our lives..., but nowadays, I only smoke loose tobacco, where I mix two types, and a lot of coffee, a mixture from hell..I already let smoked when I tried to be a professional cycling athlete, which was a dream, when I was between 17~23 years old, and after that, about five years ago I managed to stay 1 year without smoking, the rest of the time, pure destruction of health...


_______________________________________________________________________________ ________

...reading here, I don't consider it an addiction, but feeling the need to come and comment here, when I feel that there is a need to complement something, this is seeming to me a strong addiction, which I have strongly tried to control, without success..., My effort to prevent this from happening has been for me to read here logged out, but I had to log in for that.
_______________________________________________________________________________ __


In the 70's, 'R.J.Reinolds, hired scientists to investigate why Philip Morris was selling so much more... The same was done by other companies in the field,... when in 1989 they confirmed in a document that the secret of 'Mallboro' was ammonia...  
 Ammonia acts, according to experts, by making the smoke less acidic, making nicotine free and lighter, easily absorbed by the lungs, reducing by more than 10 minutes, the time for the psychotropic effects of nicotine to act and be felt in the brain and body.
 Documents also show that Reynolds, the maker of Winston, began using ammonia in the 1950s, but did not incorporate it into the product until the 1970s, and Reynolds scientists found that PhilpMorris began using ammonia in 1965, increasing the additive until 1974, this period corresponds to the increase in sales of Philp Morris.,
,
_______________________________________________________________________________ _____

(")

"The Dangers of Vape and the Silent Advancement of Popcorn Lung"

 Pulmonologist warns about the growing use of electronic cigarettes among young people, highlighting that studies already identify serious and irreversible lung damage..

 In recent years, the use of electronic cigarettes, known as vapes, has increased significantly. Studies published in 2020 in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine   have already shown that daily vape users are 73% more likely to report asthma compared to non-users, in addition to an increased risk of bronchitis, bronchiolitis and other lung diseases. Sold as a more "modern" and apparently less harmful alternative to traditional cigarettes, vapes have become popular with promises of less smell, pleasant flavors and less damage to health. However, increasingly robust scientific studies have shown that the use of electronic devices is far from safe and can even lead to serious lung diseases, such as the so-called "popcorn lung disease", as it is popularly known.  >>
...

  In addition, studies published in the journal Thorax (BMJ) pointed out that the vapors inhaled by electronic cigarette users harm the epithelial cells of the airways, reducing local immunity and increasing susceptibility to infections, in addition to accelerating chronic inflammatory processes. Dr. Baccelli reinforces: "The lung was not made to inhale heated chemicals. Even seemingly harmless compounds, such as fruit flavorings or candy, can trigger severe inflammatory reactions when inhaled repeatedly."
(")

_______________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________

Be bop Buzz...



 if I understood this image correctly, maybe the context of it could be a little different, I thought of 'Wall-e and EVA'>  deleted scene: Garbage Airlock>  >...I thought about the song Be Bop Buzz too......

- if it's not that, fine, consider it as another sour guess on my part..


....


###>>> "The most famous script, DOCTOR, simulated a psychotherapist of the Rogerian school (in which the therapist often reflects back the patient's words to the patient), and used rules, dictated in the script, to respond with non-directional questions to user inputs. As such, ELIZA was one of the first chatbots (originally "chatterbots") and one of the first programs capable of attempting the Turing test."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA
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December 08, 2025, 02:59:30 PM

Small amounts of alcohol daily have been shown to have significant health benefits.

I believe the latest info has it appearing that those benefits were illusory and that alcohol has no positive physical benefits.

I have all but given up on drinking the stuff. Not for any particular reason other than the extension of hangovers to two days with increasing age made it just no longer an attractive proposition. Though I did fancy a brew a month or two back and the inflation of the intervening years gave me severe sticker shock.

Health benefits like less likely to catch a flu when you gargle it?
Other than that it's a cytotoxic agent and a neurotoxin.
Beer and wine have some beneficial stuff in it, mainly the yeast and some vitamins, but the alcohol (as a poison) outweighs those benefits.
At least that's what i have read...

I have all but given up on drinking the stuff. Not for any particular reason other than the extension of hangovers to two days

I haven't had a hangover in over 10 years, probably closer to 20.
As someone here mentioned, "It's the dose that makes the poison" (Paracelsus).

Secret: Keep hydrating yourself when drinking alcoholic beverages. At least as much clear water as the equivalent in beer (5% alc.), so three times as much as wine, eight times as much as schnapps etc.
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