Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

My position is that cyclists are wrong in the interpretation of the "extant conditions".
In "my" universe bitcoin survives for longer than in yours, apparently.

That would be true if I agreed with your assessment (though I won't rule it out). I have a friend who thinks AI is going to bring things to an end anyway (according to a guy who is really up on these things). Then again, he also immediately sold the Bitcoin I sold him to buy some get-rich-quick shitcoin on the advice of a guy who is really up on these things so yeah...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[philipma1957]

My position is that cyclists are wrong in the interpretation of the "extant conditions".
In "my" universe bitcoin survives for longer than in yours, apparently.

That would be true if I agreed with your assessment (though I won't rule it out). I have a friend who thinks AI is going to bring things to an end anyway (according to a guy who is really up on these things). Then again, he also immediately sold the Bitcoin I sold him to buy some get-rich-quick shitcoin on the advice of a guy who is really up on these things so yeah...

Those Chinese robots are scary.

Not sure if we will be ai smacked but it looks it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

My position is that cyclists are wrong in the interpretation of the "extant conditions".

We are headed lower…

[Biodom]

My position is that cyclists are wrong in the interpretation of the "extant conditions".

We are headed lower…

you have said it a few times already 

[JayJuanGee]

TL;DR - My prediction is bottom out in 2026 at sub 50k. Then new bull market begins with a top in 2029 of close to 200k or over 200k if we’re lucky. Hold your ammo though, I think we go lower than 60k. Go all in below 55k.

You might be correct this time.. You fuck.  #nohomo 
 

He was also correct in the last one.

I will grant that in that in the last one (referring to 2021/2022, he was more right than he was wrong, yet he did not sell until around mid-to-lower $50ks, and he might have had bought back in increments down to $20k-ish.. and so yeah.. mostly correct.. Maybe he can clarify how he dealt with the buying back part, since buying back can be quite tricky too.

Overall, even if it seems that I am a wee bit hostile in regards to his approach, I do appreciate that he is selling quite a bit less than half of his stash in order to hedge (and he surely stopped whining so much once he sold some of his stash.. which likely showed it to be the right thing for him to do).  I got the sense that this time his sold amount was even in the less than 20% territories (even though I think that he said that he had sold around 25% in his 2021/2022 instance), and he still ends up being able to profit quite a bit from such hedging his bets approach.

Ngl I thought even if we don't hit a new ATH before April
We shouldn't be performing this poorly
We have gone almost 50% under.

I measure the correction (so far) down to 52.5% if you take $59,930 as the February 5 (so far local bottom) divided by $126,272 (our current ATH).

So yeah, it seems that our correction should not be so great because our pump was not so great, yet it remains difficult to know the extent to which these matters are organic or how much BIG players are collaborating to cause such ongoing outrageousness.

And, get it out of your head about a new ATH prior to April 1  (maybe less than 1.5% odds), and even getting another ATH prior to the third quarter might have les than 25% odds..   Of course, I don't really know, but we should be careful in regards to becoming too optimistic in regards to bouncing back into bullish (or a bull market.

Personally, I tend to believe it to be better to try to stick with more likely scenarios rather than fringe scenarios even though surely in bitcoin, from time to time, the fringe scenarios do end up playing out.

And?  Guess who is "the punk" - pushing his forum membership luck.

You seem to know a lot about this matter.
Did theymos give you the finger - despite your best efforts to ban me or something? You sound so bitter.

I was just making an observation, so you seem to be reading too much, if you consider me to be "bitter" in regards to uie-pooie. You can post whatever you like, and then I will choose whether or not to comment. You are not much different from the several other attention whore troll twats who are trying to act as if they have some kind of unique insight.

I get the sense that at some point prior to you giving up to the CT account, you had sold the account or something like this.. since prior to 2020-is, CT was not as BIG of an attention whoring asshole as you have been since about 2020-ish.  Are you trying to suggest that the Covid matter caused you damage?  or was there somewhere else that you were hurt.

just point at the doll and show "us" where it hurts the most.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[LFC_Bitcoin]

@JJG

In the last bear market I started buying back at 31.8k. I remember it well because I went too hard too early. I bought all the way down to 16k. What I also remember well was a guy on X with hundreds of thousands of followers who had been right all the way down. I still had 6 figures left and I was waiting for a drop to 14k because this moron was so confident about it. Any way 14k never happened so I ended up apeing back in with the final fiat remaining at 21k.

Overall I did well at buying back in the last bear market but I have again learned not to listen to anybody else. Sure, take little bits of advice or others opinions but when it comes to your investments, you are on your own, the vast majority don’t know shit about what King Bitcoin is going to do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Ermaios]

Honestly, not feeling very sparkly.

Ahh, come on capsie, cheer up!
I thought of sending you all my smerits (and imaginary merits), but my finger would not follow suit to complete the task.

It’s not your fault that your president is a narcissistic warmongering pedophile - or is it?

In "my" universe bitcoin survives for longer than in yours, apparently.

Hmmm, don’t worry, it just might.

What do you think our beloved coin is to the US government? We know it’s pegged to your dollar…

We are headed lower…

you have said it a few times already

Both of you keep repeating yourselves, which is funny AND cool.

I was just making an observation, ~

“Just making an observation” - multiple times - said the lying fuckbot.

~ if you consider me to be "bitter" in regards to uie-pooie.

You can’t be bitter, just “sounded” bitter, there is a difference, a fuckbot like you cannot comprehend.

You can post whatever you like, ~

So can you, pure bullshit all the way. How about posting again “Cryptotourist is dead”.

You are not much different from the several other attention whore troll twats who are trying to act as if they have some kind of unique insight.

But, but - I do have a unique insight - of your ass torn to pieces.

I get the sense that at some point prior to you giving up to the CT account, you had sold the account or something like this..~

If this was the case, it wouldn’t have stayed silent all these years, would it?
#logical.fallacy.right.there

~ since prior to 2020-is, CT was not as BIG of an attention whoring asshole as you have been since about 2020-ish.

CT prior to 2020 was a noob.

Are you trying to suggest that the Covid matter caused you damage? 

No, COVID itself did not cause me any damage, what was damaged though - was all of your “reputations”.

~ or was there somewhere else that you were hurt.

Well, that too, at least I have an 1oz silver coin to remind me.
Perhaps nah-til-dah can elaborate further.

~ just point at the doll and show "us" where it hurts the most.

My dick hurts the most, it likes to be sucked all the fucking time.

Nice to see you run that Cryptotourist patch again. If you had to parse *all* that post history, I feel sorry for you indeed … not!
I hope you don’t mind if I ignore you from now on - replying to a fuckbot and wasting my energy - is not my thing anymore.

And remember, and never forget, YOU HAVE BEEN OWNED.

[Gachapin]

We shouldn't be performing this poorly
We have gone almost 50% under.

What are you saying? This has been the best bear market so far with bitcoin showing how it has grown. Bitcoin fall 77.53% in 2022 but bitcoin has only fallen 50% this time.

you beat me to it... thought of posting the same 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Akuma_]

Hello everyone,

It's a happyest day for me. I've achieve my 1st bitcointalk rank as jr.member. I'm very happy about my achievement. I joined this community for knowing crypto and learn more about Bitcoin. Thank you all




Hey members of Bitcoin community. It's a happyest day ever in very short time I've achieve my jr member rank. Due to my happynes and and want to celebrate with all family members I am announcing a small giveaway from my site. It's a very small amount but I want to share my happynes with everyone request to participate in this giveaway.

There are small requirements to participate in it.
1. You mast achieve jr. Member rank
2. Sent your Bitcoin address.
3. Please suggest which way I should giveaway. To make the giveaway fair.
4. One random person will receive 10$ in his wallet.



Note: This giveaway is going to distribute in 1 march 2026.

Thanks Akuma_

[Paashaas]

You do not need to overcomplicate it.

I don't understand why everyone finds its so hard to see these things.

Well, I do, because emotions rule 99% of people.

But anyone can line up these three fundamental macro charts and analyse where we are.

It literally takes two minutes.

In every single cycle we have had:
1. GOLD tops as ISM moves into expansion
2. Bitcoin tops between 476d and 517d after

It is very clear to see that.

And it is not a coincidence this happens, it happens for fundamental macro reasons.

GOLD is a strong risk off asset that performs well in economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

When ISM breaks into expansion, that uncertainty is removed and GOLD finds its top, as ISM continues to expand.

An expanding economy improves liquidity conditions and that is why Bitcoin then has its turn.

Again, this is not a random chart that has no intrinsic link.

These three charts represent different stages of a macro cycle and when you put them together, it becomes clear.

Take a look at this again now...

Do either GOLD or ISM look like they are anywhere near a position that signals Bitcoin having 9 months of a bear market left?

Not at all.

x

[Paashaas]

Congratulations Akuma.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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