@JJG
In the last bear market I started buying back at 31.8k. I remember it well because I went too hard too early. I bought all the way down to 16k.
Hahahaha
That's what I tend to do too. I tend to hate being out of bitcoin, yet over the years, I believe that i have gotten better in terms of selling on the way up and then also trying to increase the buy back gaps.
But, no matter what, it tends to be difficult to balance, since we could error on either end. We could error by buying back too much too soon, and also by anticipating dips that might not happen.
I have mentioned a few times that in my own case, in the 2022 crashening, initially, I had my buy backs set down to just above $20k, which would have had been close to 10% below then 200-WMA, which was nearly $22k, yet if you might remember that we were stuck in the lower $40ks and even upper $30ks for a bit of time, and then all of a sudden when the Terra/Luna collapsed, like in a day it went to nearly zero... . The BTC price initially dropped from the upper $30ks to the lower $30ks and then maybe it bounced back to around $33k - and at that time, I was like "Oh shit," which caused me to acknowledge that we had clearly and unambiguously transitioned into a bear market. I had to make some adjustments to my buy orders. I think that I removed some of them in the lower $30ks (the ones that had not already filled) and I even removed a few of my buy orders in the upper $20ks, and then I continued my buy orders around $25k-ish and then extended them down to around $19k.. perhaps even slightly below $19k.. and within the next weeks the BTC price went down in cascading ways and even had a downity spike to something like $18.5k.. before it recovered back slightly above $20k.. so I had to make several adjustments.. so that I could continue to have buy orders and even start to inject new money at some point after one of my regroupings, which I think came right around the day that we had the downity spike to around $18.5k.. I even cancelled one of my social matters based on my needs to scramble and to rethink how I was going to allocate funds, budget and perhaps start some kind of a DCA with whatever available funds that I had coming from non-bitcoin sources.
Up to that point, that was probably the most prepared that I had ever been for DOWNity.. yet the DOWNity still ended up being more than my preparation levels... even though I scrambled and was able to mostly stick with my plan in regards to either ongoingly buying more or at least to not sell when I was running out of money. I think that in 2018 I had done worse in some sense, since I had been embarked in some projects (mostly construction) and so I knew that I had bills coming in, yet I had not held back enough cash to cover all of the bills, so in November 2018 (close to the bottom - maybe at around $4.1k) I ended up selling something like 4% of my then stack, and I likely was ONLY able to buy back around half of that (if I am being generous - I hate to go back again and to recalculate the specifics, but it was ballparkedly a situation where I had not prepared enough, which ended up resulting in some coins that were sold - and not bought back at relatively low prices)
What I also remember well was a guy on X with hundreds of thousands of followers who had been right all the way down. I still had 6 figures left and I was waiting for a drop to 14k because this moron was so confident about it. Any way 14k never happened so I ended up apeing back in with the final fiat remaining at 21k.
There was quite a bit of that sentiment, and surely $14k is not really very much lower than the $15,479 low that we ended up experiencing.. and yeah, we were bouncing around $16k for several weeks, so there surely was quite a bit of chance to get in around $16k, and so yeah, there is still a pretty decent difference between $16k and $21k, but still $21k is not bad considering that even by the time September/October 2023 came and we were bouncing around the upper $20ks. there were still guys expecting one more drop into the lower $20ks or below, and the lowest we got throughout all of 2023 (after our March drop below $20k) was around $24.5k... so even those mid-$20k prices became quite difficult to get after March 2023... so I would imagine even the guys who loaded up on bitcoin between about $26.5k and $29.5k through much of 2023 should have had been quite glad about their performance, even though surely there were a lot of guys who were then proclaiming that further down was coming.
It has never been easy, even though the guys who mostly errored on the side of preparing for UP rather than DOWN had tended to do better... at least, so far in bitcoin's existence.
Overall I did well at buying back in the last bear market but I have again learned not to listen to anybody else.
I understand what you mean about setting your own parameters, yet we are all influenced by what others think, even though maybe we will take some of the claims with a decently large grain of salt.
You would not be participating in this forum (this thread) if you were not interested in the ideas of other guys.. .. even if you are largely just bouncing your ideas of of them (us). I frequently am arguing (on this forum) about my own system, and many times i just stick with my system, yet I will also sometimes make some adjustments to it that are likely based on some of my interactions with other guys on the forum, too.
Sometimes the changes relate to increments, and other times order sizes or maybe I might make adjustments in regards to how much cash I have on hand.. or it could be even changes to whether I purchase some big ticket item or not (that will affect my cashflows), yet I still get your point about the value in mostly figuring out our own boundaries and perhaps tweaking here and there, while maybe taking some of the various other ideas with decently large grains of salt.
Surely in recent times there has been a lot of attention with various legislation, including in the USA... and surely it remains quite questionable the extent to which the variations of the legislation and/or the legislative process helps bitcoin or not - since who the fuck wants more ways of tracking and/or monitoring through various means that are not called CBDCs, yet they are damned close to it.. and surely the unrealized gains legislative crap in the Netherlands has affects on bitcoin and the discussions of other guys in regards to the potential impact of those kinds of matters - that can affect how far bottoms go or if maybe recoveries are sustainable or merely dead cat bounces.
Sure, take little bits of advice or others opinions but when it comes to your investments, you are on your own, the vast majority don’t know shit about what King Bitcoin is going to do.
I share your conclusion that the punchline is that each of us has to figure out our own balancing and if we overdo it or under do it in regards to our own finances/psychology, then we are going to be the ones who either benefit or pays the costs for what balances we had determined to be in our own best interests.
I was just making an observation, ~
“Just making an observation” - multiple times - said the lying fuckbot.
Some observations are worth repeating.
You can post whatever you like, ~
So can you, pure bullshit all the way. How about posting again “Cryptotourist is dead”.
You are the one repeating...
Yeah.. the insignificant fucktwat is dead (especially when PsyOp uie pooie took over his account)... so keep repeating whatever...
I hope you don’t mind if I ignore you from now on - replying to a fuckbot and wasting my energy - is not my thing anymore.
I will believe it when I see it. I can already imagine the future uie-pooie.
Poll
