Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Cyclists basically drove retail away.

Nah, we ate their lunch.

ate their lunch by selling higher?
more like took their lunch money...there is a word for these guys.

[Biodom]

Contrary to others here, I think that buying on the down-slope is the invitation to ruin.

That's why you only have 20 bitcoin - sucks to be uie-pooie.  

 

Even with your theoretical scenario (that I told you many times is inaccurate), it's seems to be bigger than 0.63 btc that you self-ascribed, unless you are just making fun of everybody here by repeating this...which seems to me to be a bunch of hooey.

Typically i leave bygones be bygones, but due to you constantly alluding to some nonexistent bitcoins in my name, what 's your real number @jjg?
Reveal, or please don't talk about other people "numbers"...a friendly suggestion.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

for f.. sake....either it cycles or it grows, not both.

Sorry to break the news to you.

The world is not so simple.

This time, it happens to be "both."

Oil cycles and it is below 2008 level.

Bitcoin no isn't oil.

That's a typical commodity behavior.
Want the same future for bitcoin?

I will grant you that bitcoin seems to be a kind of a commodity, yet have you observed some kind of a non-physicality feature of bitcoin.

"Magical" 30mil "controlling" 100bil daily trade?
Oh, my!
OG sold...f-k them, they should have sold 100% so we can began anew without preordained (in their minds) cycles.

Seems to me that it is better to take these "stories" with a decently large grain of salt.

67K in 2026 vs 68K in 2021 is pathetic...no growth really.

You know what is pathetic?

Your spin.

Playing with 200wma does not help anyone as everyone (except a few) look at spot to buy/sell/evaluate.
Does anyone who was buying gold was looking at 200wma? Of course, not.

Perhaps the 200WMA works better in bitcoin based on it still be such a goddamned new asset (and new asset class), so there are some struggles to figure out how to use the various tools involving various network effects (such as the seven outlined by Trace Mayer).... which justifies both treating an early stage growing asset from a quite mature (and potentially dying) asset class.

No wonder retail is gone...don't bash retail...they have a nose for it and "made" bitcoin what it is.
Cyclists basically drove retail away.

Sure.  Retail is gone, until they are not.

I am thinking that it is probably not healthy to fight dee cornz, including some level of irrationality that exists within all markets, not limited to bitcoin.

I mostly disagree, not surprisingly.
To me, this "cycle" is a test.

By plunging vs booming stock market and gold, bitcoin is putting itself in the "niche" status.
At 1.352 tril, not many people (relatively speaking) would care, really.
It is quite possible that E. Warren and Gensler et al meddling in 2020-2024 killed the momentum.
Taxation of tx maybe was one of the underlying causes.
I don't know, but bitcoin seem to lose it's mojo.

If stablecoins (which are inherently stupid, btw) would be anointed as the"kings" of transactions and gold would look like an cryptographically unbreakable store of value (because it is physical, not digital), what would be the space for bitcoin to grow in?

The "digital gold" concept could be under assault since everything "digital" might be a suspect in the era of AI agent swarms.
Interestingly, both bitcoin and Software stocks peaked at exactly the same time and software was devastated often to the same degree (SaaS, ADBE, PLTR, even MSFT to a degree).
So, basically, market decided that bitcoin=software (which it is, in a way, but only initially).
Again, this had nothing to do with cycles as software companies decline shows.

[BitHodlers]

If stablecoins (which are inherently stupid, btw) would be anointed as the"kings" of transactions and gold would look like an cryptographically unbreakable store of value (because it is physical, not digital), what would be the space for bitcoin to grow in?

Cryptographically unbreakable is not relevant here because it does not apply to this category. I could say Bitcoin is physically unbreakable and physically unfalsifiable store of value. Sounds smart but it really isn't since Bitcoin is digital. A lot of gold is fake, a lot more than many are willing to admit...

The "digital gold" concept could be under assault since everything "digital" might be a suspect in the era of AI agent swarms.
Interestingly, both bitcoin and Software stocks peaked at exactly the same time and software was devastated often to the same degree (SaaS, ADBE, PLTR, even MSFT to a degree).
So, basically, market decided that bitcoin=software (which it is, in a way, but only initially).
Again, this had nothing to do with cycles as software companies decline shows.

I would not say that, was it not always correlated to tech stock of this kind?

[Biodom]

I would not say that, was it not always correlated to tech stock of this kind?

it was, hence my assertion that the decline was correlated with the general software decline and NOT with the "cycles".

[philipma1957]

for f.. sake....either it cycles or it grows, not both.

Sorry to break the news to you.

The world is not so simple.

This time, it happens to be "both."

Oil cycles and it is below 2008 level.

Bitcoin no isn't oil.

That's a typical commodity behavior.
Want the same future for bitcoin?

I will grant you that bitcoin seems to be a kind of a commodity, yet have you observed some kind of a non-physicality feature of bitcoin.

"Magical" 30mil "controlling" 100bil daily trade?
Oh, my!
OG sold...f-k them, they should have sold 100% so we can began anew without preordained (in their minds) cycles.

Seems to me that it is better to take these "stories" with a decently large grain of salt.

67K in 2026 vs 68K in 2021 is pathetic...no growth really.

You know what is pathetic?

Your spin.

Playing with 200wma does not help anyone as everyone (except a few) look at spot to buy/sell/evaluate.
Does anyone who was buying gold was looking at 200wma? Of course, not.

Perhaps the 200WMA works better in bitcoin based on it still be such a goddamned new asset (and new asset class), so there are some struggles to figure out how to use the various tools involving various network effects (such as the seven outlined by Trace Mayer).... which justifies both treating an early stage growing asset from a quite mature (and potentially dying) asset class.

No wonder retail is gone...don't bash retail...they have a nose for it and "made" bitcoin what it is.
Cyclists basically drove retail away.

Sure.  Retail is gone, until they are not.

I am thinking that it is probably not healthy to fight dee cornz, including some level of irrationality that exists within all markets, not limited to bitcoin.

I mostly disagree, not surprisingly.
To me, this "cycle" is a test.

By plunging vs booming stock market and gold, bitcoin is putting itself in the "niche" status.
At 1.352 tril, not many people (relatively speaking) would care, really.
It is quite possible that E. Warren and Gensler et al meddling in 2020-2024 killed the momentum.
Taxation of tx maybe was one of the underlying causes.
I don't know, but bitcoin seem to lose it's mojo.

If stablecoins (which are inherently stupid, btw) would be anointed as the"kings" of transactions and gold would look like an cryptographically unbreakable store of value (because it is physical, not digital), what would be the space for bitcoin to grow in?

The "digital gold' concept could be under assault since everything "digital" might be a suspect in the era of AI agent swarms.
Interestingly, both bitcoin and Software stocks peaked up exactly at the same time and software was devastated often to the same degree (SaaS, ADBE, PLTR, even MSFT to a degree).
So, basically, market decided that bitcoin=software (which it is, in a way, but only initially).
Again, this had nothing to do with cycles as software companies show.

well i guess btc is dead after all.

its funny to see it die this way.

as Trump would say sad so sad.


By the way I see part of the issue is Btc is considered to be republican and right wing.

which means 45% of the country does not want it at all.

i know it is international but losing 45% of the USA as investors hurts it.

I also think the idea of taxing held coins is catching on in europe which likely forced a lot of europeans to sell off coins. just in case.


if you are in europe and are a holder of a lot of 100 a coin btc you have a huge cap gain never taken.

so if you are in fear of an assessment and then a crash faster than you sell you may sell now.

ie a guy has 1000 btc at 100 a coin or 100,000 cost value.

he gets assessed at 67,000 a coin or 67,000,000

he fails to sell fast enough and btc drops to 45,000 a coin he now must sell more coin.


i think a lot of big holders got in front of this and sold off. which is another reason why we dropped a lot.

[BitHodlers]

i know it is international but losing 45% of the USA as investors hurts it.

It can not lose something that it never had? ETFs and other vehicles will make most of these people invest in Bitcoin passively eventually. Anyway, who is going to ask them what they think about that? The Hedge fund manager?   The primary question here is whether they will get paper coin or real Bitcoin..

I would not say that, was it not always correlated to tech stock of this kind?

it was, hence my assertion that the decline was correlated with the general software decline and NOT with the "cycles".

You are right I was focused too much on the Bitcoin=software part. What is our trendy conclusion? We need to make Bitcoin an AI too? 

[Biodom]

i know it is international but losing 45% of the USA as investors hurts it.

It can not lose something that it never had? ETFs and other vehicles will make most of these people invest in Bitcoin passively eventually. Anyway, who is going to ask them what they think about that? The Hedge fund manager?   The primary question here is whether they will get paper coin or real Bitcoin..

I would not say that, was it not always correlated to tech stock of this kind?

it was, hence my assertion that the decline was correlated with the general software decline and NOT with the "cycles".

You are right I was focused too much on the Bitcoin=software part. What is our trendy conclusion? We need to make Bitcoin an AI too?  

The funny thing is that if Michael Saylor focused on AI in 2020-2021, especially since he claimed to have a business "intelligence" company, he could have been an AI software 'king' and save an aggravation of being a few bil underwater with hundreds of mil divvies due each year.

Well, maybe his company market cap would still be smaller, or at least it is arguably the case.
Yet, in this timeline, he is all in bitcoin for now.
Not sure if it is a blessing, though.

OT: something interesting and revealing:
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/20/how-this-week-s-sign-of-private-credit-stress-could-set-stage-for-next-bitcoin-bull-run
further explained in
https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2024500135237931077

In short: Blue Owl's (307 bil private equity manager) fund sold $1.4 bil in loans to pay redemptions.
According to X post, it rhymes with 2007 New Century collapse or with the Bear Sytearns hedge funds debacle (in coindesk article) that, ostensibly, started the GFC.
Blue Owl's owners pledged $1.9 bil in their company stock to buy Tampa Bay Lightning (hockey team).
The stock has declined 53 % in 12 mo.

Situation is made worse by the fact that many pension funds are now loaded with private equity.
Texas teachers (TRS), for example, has 12% in private equity, CALPERS 17%.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Omj1014]

I would not say that, was it not always correlated to tech stock of this kind?

it was, hence my assertion that the decline was correlated with the general software decline and NOT with the "cycles".

You might be right bro, but mainly I think it's time to buy the dip
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2026/02/22/software-stocks-selloff-microsoft-oracle-salesforce-nasdaq/88774908007/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

so six inches of heavy packing snow so far.

I did the driveway and side walks.

Had to grease and wax the snowblower to prevent clogs.

trying a new corded electric blower.


https://www.lowes.com/pd/Westinghouse-Corded-18-in-Single-stage-Push-Corded-Electric-Snow-Blower-18-in-Single-stage-Push-with-auger-assistance-Corded-Electric-Snow-Blower/5018186777

not terrible on six inches of heavy packing snow once I used wax and mineral oil to prevent clogging.



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Looks like dip on the way.

money flowing back into silver up 3 bucks.

gold is up 80 bucks.

I did a move on some graded silver last week.

I now own a set of all  

Ben Franklin coins 1948 to 1963

paid good price all are Ngc graded

16 p mint
14 d mint
  5 s mint

mine is similar to the set below.

https://www.govmint.com/35pc-1948-1963-pds-50-cent-franklin-ngc-pcgs-ms64-65fbl?


these will be my new long term silver hodl.

Still stacking btc. dip is at 65.2k

[BobLawblaw]

More pain.

[vapourminer]

More pain.

too numb to notice

[somac.]

Must be related to Trump's Iran bullshit. Or could just be the usual Sunday dump I guess.

[philipma1957]

Must be related to Trump's Iran bullshit. Or could just be the usual Sunday dump I guess.

Picked up some dip.

I am waiting to see if we go under 64k we may as silver and gold are whaling. if we go under 64k I will buy more.

I will need to stay up late today due to the storm as I will be trying to use the snowblower every 4-6 inches.

rather than go for the 20-30 super pile.

[somac.]

Must be related to Trump's Iran bullshit. Or could just be the usual Sunday dump I guess.

Picked up some dip.

I am waiting to see if we go under 64k we may as silver and gold are whaling. if we go under 64k I will buy more.

Good chance we'll get there, but there can't be too many panic sellers left anymore to keep pushing this shit lower so you never know.

[philipma1957]

Must be related to Trump's Iran bullshit. Or could just be the usual Sunday dump I guess.

Picked up some dip.

I am waiting to see if we go under 64k we may as silver and gold are whaling. if we go under 64k I will buy more.

Good chance we'll get there, but there can't be too many panic sellers left anymore to keep pushing this shit lower so you never know.

Still silver and gold went up a lot in the last few hours. they are really hurting price.

Silver any buy in 2021 22-28 bucks an oz

now it is 87 an oz


btc had a 35-69k range in 2021 now it is 64.4K

[Richy_T]

Must be related to Trump's Iran bullshit. Or could just be the usual Sunday dump I guess.

We also have a large-scale weather incident inbound. But I'd bet on the latter.