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February 24, 2026, 08:29:41 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26935462 times)
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AlcoHoDL
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Today at 04:44:55 PM
Last edit: Today at 04:55:02 PM by AlcoHoDL
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I saw this on YouTube yesterday (dialog is not exact, typing it as I remember it):



Human:   I want to wash my car, and the car wash is very close to my home. Should I go by car, or on foot?
ChatGPT:   Seeing that the car wash is very close to your home, I recommend you go on foot. You will save some gas and walking is good for your health. So, it's better to walk there.
Human:   So, are you saying that I should walk to the car wash to wash my car?
ChatGPT:   Yes, definitely. It's better for both your wallet and your body.
Human:   But, how can I wash my car if I leave it at home and go to the car wash on foot?
ChatGPT:   {...thinking...}
ChatGPT:   Oh, now I see what you mean. You're right, you should drive there. I'm very sorry for the confusion.



Don't worry guys, AI still has a long way to go. Humans are still irreplaceable. I'm not against AI, when used as a tool, to assist in data processing/searching, and always with careful interpretation of the results it spits out. But, currently, I'm surprised and saddened to see many friends and colleagues almost blindly relying on it for tasks they should have full control of, such as computer programming and writing technical reports, even reviewing scientific publications! I see AI elevating mediocre, below-average individuals into expert know-it-alls. Of course, the facade collapses the moment they open their mouths, or the moment the code crashes...

Don't fall for the AI hype. As things currently stand, AI is just a fancy data processing/searching tool. Very useful, no doubt, but still far, far away from replacing humans.

Edit: OK, it makes fairies too...
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Today at 04:46:25 PM
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Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)
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Today at 04:51:38 PM

I saved a couple of boxes, so even though they were intended for the last bear market, I think they will be useful this year as well Wink



Oh nice. Just add 4 years. I hope they're still potent though...
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Today at 04:53:19 PM

More pain.
more pain at the deeper
dude is diving
 Huh
...
>>>




But No!, my user name is the first letters of my name, and the first is ~

OK then!
You could have just gone for - “it’s my initials” or “not what it seems”, but never mind.
You can call me Neo. Cheesy
Neo the Son of Sun?,
 ok, I ll call u Neosong.  Cheesy


If humanity really wants to get rid of the controlling power, the first thing to do is to tear down all the wireless transmission towers that make up the worldwide broadcast network, (Read about biosensors) after this first step is completed, the second part is to prevent them from building new towers or other methods of wireless data transmission. By doing so, more than 50% of the path to a free humanity will be completed...

I hear ya!
But the problem is not only wireless, it’s these massive spying data centers, i.e. Echelon, Pine gap alike. These are all wired - intercontinentally.

-Almost all these chemical trails are nothing without the transmission towers, the chemicals dispersed by the planes, only enhance (x100) the frequency emitted by the towers, in which objectives such as deionizing and or ionizing the lower atmosphere, stopping rain or making it rain when ionized, for example,... They can create any type of event, even earthquakes...

 We are frequency, and these emitted frequencies interact with water, and we,
in every part of our body, are a frequency, that is,
 they can interact with our brain waves, and dictate our emotions...for example and etc...

 So, ending wireless transmissions at a global level would only be the first part, 50%,
.. and yes these databases in general, are information built by the human being himself,
 which can be used against and or in favor of us,...

 Low frequency waves are a hazard, and are being used against the environment
 in which we live, and directly in our way of life and interaction with others.

Geoengineering Watch Global Alert News, February 21, 2026, #550

“Major winter storm warning for millions across 27 states as California faces 10ft of snow and East Coast braces for white out this weekend” (Daily Mail). “Winter Storm Warnings Linger for 10 States Expecting 12 Inches of Snow” (Yahoo news). “Winter Storm Warning In 11 States, 4 Feet of Snow To Hit—Life-Threatening” (Newsweek). These headlines were issued within the same 24 hour window of time, why are they so different? Are they reading from a different script? Climate engineered winter weather events are anything but an exact science. “From 80s to freezing: Florida faces cold blast, growing fire danger” (AccuWeather). Welcome to weather warfare. The latest installment of Global Alert News is below.


Geoengineering Watch Global Alert News, February 21, 2026, # 550 ( Dane Wigington )



But the hardest part is to unite humanity, since every day the human being wakes up with the purpose of attacking someone and feeling good about harming others, as an individual ecstasy, forgetting the power of union, the individualization of the being, is financed by governments day after day, consume, obey and do not question!

Ah, that will only happen after the shit has hit the fan, unfortunately. What’s left of it … will unite … to survive.
..
Yes, until the moment they choose a leader, and start all over again.

................................................................
! But what I haven't told you yet, was about the drink you offered,...

..the moment I saw it, I remembered a fact that happened here a  days ago...
 I didn't say it but I'll say it...

 You offered a drink of a little over 30k sats, from what I understood,
in exchange for nothing, that's fine,
but what came to mind, was this fact that I mention...

> I wrote something, in which I said, that, before the end of February 2026,
 the price would be less than 70k, and then, a person here, got very angry with me,
 saying that a retard like me doesn't know anything and so on, and called me to bet,
that what I said, wouldn't happen...
 I didn't want to bet, but politely, I accepted, however, with a symbolic amount, (30k sats)
 and even said that I would send my share to him first, and when he lost
 he would send me the 60k sats... but,, he ddnt want...

And out of nowhere, he got very angry, and said he wouldn't bet with me anymore,
 because I'm a retard!! hahahaha, I still didn't understand anything...
And then the price went down from 70k, and February 2026 is not over yet....

 but before this event, he had already closed a bet against LFC, that by the end of April 2026, the price of BTC would reach a new high... something like that... Value> 100k SAT.
  and more people went with him against LFC on the same side of his bet, Ambatman, Miachloe... I don't remember if more did this too.... and I also don't know if mia will pay LFC, but I believe he, Ambatman pay...

..but now, he is calling anyone to bet again...

Warning, should him go back on your words...

I wouldn't bet with him even if I was 100% sure I would win...

I am not going to proclaim that "anything is not possible," yet it is difficult to imagine that our lows from this time around would be lower than the 2022 lows that were related to the FTX, et al, blow up.  Think about it, the maximum drop from 2022 was $15,479 (I think was on November 10), which was then right around 35% below the then 200 WMA.   Right now the 200-WMA is currently at $58,350, and so a 35% would be $38k, even though the 200-WMA continues to go up around $20-ish each day, which would make it quite shocking to even touch upon $40k in regards to the worstest of scenarios...

At this time, based on known information, I would likely enter a bet with anyone who wants to proclaim that we are going below $40k in this calendar year... of course using Stamp as the measure.

Anyone? 

Anyone?

$34k in one hour. Tongue



I have to say, I don’t like it - but sounds really plausible.

Quote
The first ever bear market drawdown resulted in a -94% decline. Next, in 2014, BTCUSD fell by -86%. 2018’s bear market ended after reaching a full -84% max drawdown. Meanwhile, the last bear market set Bitcoin back -78% and ended with the FTX collapse.
The next average in the linear decay sequence would suggest a max drawdown of between -72 and -74%. Severino’s target is on the more conservative end. Linear decay essentially accounts for the diminished volatility in the cryptocurrency market, while maintaining a realistic average.

 I find it very interesting that Eliot waves are based on Fibonacci,
but it takes a lot of time to find the probable correct points.

 I have my method based on ratio, volume, fibbonacci, pivot points, ..
but the main part is the proportion of the movements that spend my attention...

 After having found a double top, the price went towards 15500,
and then followed firmly in a bullish leg that went up to 126 K at once,
looking at the monthly chart.

 Yes, then, proportionally, the price needs a corrected bearish leg, and then tries
 to break through the 47k, to maybe reach that 38k....
 But in this downward correction, the fear of missing out on a new high
 can take prices to levels that will prevent it from continuing with this downtrend...
With the market flooded with toilet paper tangled up everywhere,
 it is a little more difficult to understand the future price dynamics...



---




Ok Mister NeoSong?,
...also i think that when you quote me, and i answer u,
 i didnt expect that was and atraction of your side
 that a retard like me answered u!  hehehehe...





 Past movements don't make future movements,.
 I see a 1/10 ratio in the general pattern of Bitcoin,
this proportion is complicated for me to explain,
- but the question is:
are we close to being 10 months below the 50-month average, and possibly touching 40k?,
after these 10 months will we return above this average?
-Or we will have a correction of this bearish leg and only then we will return
to the level below the 50-month average,
and then we will not be below the 50-month average?

 Cool Huh
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Today at 04:57:29 PM
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Some people in this thread made generational wealth

Does fiat generational wealth look like a battery-filled dumpster on wheels?
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Don't worry guys, AI still has a long way to go.
I don't think that I or the other guy dispute that it has a long way to go, but if you look at the rate of advance we are making extreme progress. A couple years ago it couldn't code anything, it made videos that were like artifacts from an LSD trip.  Grin Now it can code fairly for smaller projects or be an assistant, it can do security review, it is making video fakes that are too perfect even..

Don't fall for the AI hype. As things currently stand, AI is just a fancy data processing/searching tool. Very useful, no doubt, but still far, far away from replacing humans.
It is already replacing humans in many jobs, we are witnessing it happen. It won't replace all jobs and not that fast either. You could replace many humans with automation tools even before this, you just had to spend a lot more time developing each solution and there were more limitations than now.
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Explanation
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Today at 05:24:10 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I saw this on YouTube yesterday (dialog is not exact, typing it as I remember it):



Human:   I want to wash my car, and the car wash is very close to my home. Should I go by car, or on foot?
ChatGPT:   Seeing that the car wash is very close to your home, I recommend you go on foot. You will save some gas and walking is good for your health. So, it's better to walk there.
Human:   So, are you saying that I should walk to the car wash to wash my car?
ChatGPT:   Yes, definitely. It's better for both your wallet and your body.
Human:   But, how can I wash my car if I leave it at home and go to the car wash on foot?
ChatGPT:   {...thinking...}
ChatGPT:   Oh, now I see what you mean. You're right, you should drive there. I'm very sorry for the confusion.



Don't worry guys, AI still has a long way to go. Humans are still irreplaceable. I'm not against AI, when used as a tool, to assist in data processing/searching, and always with careful interpretation of the results it spits out. But, currently, I'm surprised and saddened to see many friends and colleagues almost blindly relying on it for tasks they should have full control of, such as computer programming and writing technical reports, even reviewing scientific publications! I see AI elevating mediocre, below-average individuals into expert know-it-alls. Of course, the facade collapses the moment they open their mouths, or the moment the code crashes...

Don't fall for the AI hype. As things currently stand, AI is just a fancy data processing/searching tool. Very useful, no doubt, but still far, far away from replacing humans.

Edit: OK, it makes fairies too...

I agree with you that AI is not yet something that can completely replace humans, but it has already crept quite deeply into every pore of human society and they say that this is just the beginning. I also think AI has good applications in some things like medicine and research where it can process a lot of data in a short time, but I also don't like it being used by ordinary people for fairly trivial things that they should be doing themselves.

It is especially problematic how AI affects children, for whom its use becomes a completely normal thing, and we all know how things are today with the use of social networks among children, which is completely out of control.

In the long term, I wonder if there is any model that does not predict that AI will become self-aware and turn against those who created it. Judging by science fiction, most movies and series always have a story that doesn't end well for people, so I wonder if we can be optimistic about that?

I recently read somewhere that several times in history it was a human being who prevented a nuclear war from happening by interpreting some data as an error - and today AI is increasingly being introduced into military programs to the point that it should decide on the battlefield who is the enemy and who is not.

In the end, will we as a species become less intelligent and creative because we will not train our brains, but will leave everything to AI? I already see a lot of people who don't think at all, they ask AI for every little thing.
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Today at 05:28:39 PM

If we get the >70% decline, the cycle is broken to the downside and inflation adjusted ATHs are a long long time away.  

Nah, if that’s the case, we can expect a new ATH, well, around the 2028 halving.
That’s like 2+ years from now, not a long long time, unless of course - you consider one year=long time. I do not.




That's all I could ask for.

You know that *if* he turns out to be right, we’re going to have another session at this.
Something like “once lucky, twice lucky - three times a charm” kind of thing.






Yeahh, that would be my face too, if capsie was trying to lure me in for a date based on a typo. Tongue




does "individuals" here also include individuals who buy the ETF ?

Of course not, but maybe we could ask the ETF expert of this thread, just as soon as he stops sucking his dick for practise.




The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.

Hmmm, in your case - it could have something to do with your Cybertruck, dah.





Right, but I’m sure it can do lower, you know, when you think certain people are low(life) - they surprise you by going even lower.
#that.despicable.ETF.lowlife




But I'm careful not overusing that right, because it will be seen as a personality defect, namely the lack of humbleness.

I’m sorry, what has being humble got to do with anything?
Humbleness has to do with - personally - appreciating the things you have. Check.
Does that mean you should not desire for more? No.
Does it mean that you should not be proud of the things already accomplished? No.


It can be easily misunderstood as bragging.

Bragging is when you can’t shut up about the above, and that is certainly, not a good attribute.




It's amazing, but human markets are almost as efficient as the weather. At least real ones are.  

The weather is rigged, the climate is not.
Likewise, human thinking is rigged AND predictable.

Then come a few humans (max 10%), that can see through this rig operation, and are definitely not that predictable.
The system is afraid of these people.


And the only time one can benefit from inefficiencies is when they can be sustained.  

There is nothing to sustain, apart from helping others in any way shape or form. Remember that.
#passing.down.knowledge


It's going to be an exceedingly violent storm. That's all I know.

You have no idea.
Why did you change your avatar capsie? Is that … Jesus? Bitcoin Jesus or something else?


Cycles are dead.

Pfff, everything everywhere is a cycle.
We might shift from a 4-year one to a 8-10 year one now that we’ve been institutionalised, but that’s about it.
I think Ognasty is front-running this on behalf the whale team.


(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

Make sure it’s an above two clicks mountain range, and you’ll be fine - provided there are no volcanoes in the neighbourhood.




Neo the Son of Sun?,
 ok, I ll call u Neosong.  Cheesy

That is fine, you’ll know my real name soon enough.


~ chemtrails & geo-engineering ~

Agreed, but there is more to it.
TPTB know this, and wanted time to prepare themselves. Most are already there, considering that we are on borrowed time.
Remember that this has been going on since the 70’s. The side effect was to reflect as much sun as possible, but the truth is - that the earth is warming from within.


Yes, until the moment they choose a leader, and start all over again.

Yup! And again. And then again on Mars. Tongue


~ jsnowg ~

You know he’s a bot right? Faggot Bitcoin malicious bot. What do you expect?


I wouldn't bet with him even if I was 100% sure I would win...

I wouldn’t have anything to do with IT, period.


Ok Mister NeoSong?,
...also i think that when you quote me, and i answer u,
 i didnt expect that was and atraction of your side
 that a retard like me answered u!  hehehehe...

I don’t think you’re a retard, and trust me, I know when I see one.
#been.there.done.that


- but the question is: ~

IMO, we bottom at round $40k on October 2026.
Then we get another ATH around the halving 2028.
We close the cycle at the end of 2029 - with a new ATH at around $200k probably September this time round.
We might get another 4 year cycle or we might not - probably the latter - and have a raging bull market for many years (8-10) until the end of the world kicks in. Roll Eyes
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Today at 05:33:26 PM
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Is everybody having fun?

I think the answer to this question depends on whether you sold the four year cycle high or not…

Some people in this thread made generational wealth and some people watched half their savings disappear. The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.

I stopped counting the times I watched my BTC worth getting decimated by more than 50%.

But I also know that I'm a shit trader, so I'm fine with sitting it out. And the upside I had is more than any investor can dream of.


Could I have more... sure. But with trying to sell tops and buying bottoms also comes risk, at least in my case.

people say, do this, or trade that, and they might be right. But I don't want to risk fucking it up just because I listened to someone on the internet. Also I don't want be (more) successful because I just listened to somebody on the internet. It goes both ways.

I don't feel any hate towards people who think that they are always right with reality proving them correct, even though so far that is.


However I understand that people dislike "I told you so"-personalities. Personally I think people who made correct predictions earned the right to say "I told you so". But I'm careful not overusing that right, because it will be seen as a personality defect, namely the lack of humbleness. It can be easily misunderstood as bragging. I think that's the main cause for the hate you see


Og is a legend in his own mind and if you don't know that then just wait and he'll tell you ad nauseam.

Yet I seem to remember him arguing with me saying Intel was a good buy when I was telling everyone to dump right before the crash.

So yeah he has a case of selective memory syndrome.
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Today at 05:40:11 PM
Last edit: Today at 05:51:22 PM by BitHodlers

Og is a legend in his own mind and if you don't know that then just wait and he'll tell you ad nauseam.

Yet I seem to remember him arguing with me saying Intel was a good buy when I was telling everyone to dump right before the crash.

So yeah he has a case of selective memory syndrome.
You seem not to understand something, because that is what it means to be right about the finance markets 28 years in a row. You need to have selective memory syndrome with a dose of narcissism.  Grin Grin
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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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Today at 06:17:10 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

I saw this on YouTube yesterday (dialog is not exact, typing it as I remember it):



Human:   I want to wash my car, and the car wash is very close to my home. Should I go by car, or on foot?
ChatGPT:   Seeing that the car wash is very close to your home, I recommend you go on foot. You will save some gas and walking is good for your health. So, it's better to walk there.
Human:   So, are you saying that I should walk to the car wash to wash my car?
ChatGPT:   Yes, definitely. It's better for both your wallet and your body.
Human:   But, how can I wash my car if I leave it at home and go to the car wash on foot?
ChatGPT:   {...thinking...}
ChatGPT:   Oh, now I see what you mean. You're right, you should drive there. I'm very sorry for the confusion.



Don't worry guys, AI still has a long way to go. Humans are still irreplaceable. I'm not against AI, when used as a tool, to assist in data processing/searching, and always with careful interpretation of the results it spits out. But, currently, I'm surprised and saddened to see many friends and colleagues almost blindly relying on it for tasks they should have full control of, such as computer programming and writing technical reports, even reviewing scientific publications! I see AI elevating mediocre, below-average individuals into expert know-it-alls. Of course, the facade collapses the moment they open their mouths, or the moment the code crashes...

Don't fall for the AI hype. As things currently stand, AI is just a fancy data processing/searching tool. Very useful, no doubt, but still far, far away from replacing humans.

Edit: OK, it makes fairies too...

To be honest, it's only capable of making retarded fairies so far.



Part of what is amazing in what I see is that AI, as dumb as it is right now, as many mistakes as it makes, is already capable of reshuffling the foundations of society. It could get no better than it is right now (particularly since the most recent releases of Chat GPT and Claude this year) and we are certain to see the storm-like disruption that I'm talking about.

The beautiful thing is at least from what I see (and assuming that there's some portion of it that will prove to be correct), the areas that are going to be hurt the most by this torrent of efficiencies sucking the wind out of the system are going to be the areas in which people have been able to abuse the inefficiencies of the system to get ahead.

For example, college degrees, well, AI is going to be the straw that finally breaks the camel's back with the reality being is it's not a straw at all, but a redwood tree being laid on top of a nearly dead camel in the first place.

I agree with you that we shouldn't worry and AI will not replace humans, but it's going to change  how humans define ourselves.

So I think positioning oneself as well as one can is critical.  And I continue to think that storing a important percentage of one's wealth in Bitcoin whilst holding one's own keys is one of the things we can be doing to protect ourselves the best we can so that would include hopefully at least 80% of the people here.
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Today at 06:18:38 PM

Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

What an odd thing to say when the opposite has already been proven to be true.


The weird thing is the hate being directed towards the people who were right by the people who were wrong.

Hmmm, in your case - it could have something to do with your Cybertruck, dah.

Imagine not liking a bulletproof truck with 850 horsepower that runs on sunshine, drives itself, and can go 0-60 in 2.6 seconds… That’s almost as hard to believe as people getting mad at the person who tried to save them from losing half their savings. An odd bunch we have in these parts.
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Today at 06:32:34 PM

Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

What an odd thing to say when the opposite has already been proven to be true.
 

Does it help at all if I also believe that they're alive and well?
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Explanation
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Today at 07:10:32 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

What an odd thing to say when the opposite has already been proven to be true.
 

Does it help at all if I also believe that they're alive and well?

Schrödinger's 4-year cycle analysis.  Cheesy
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Today at 07:41:49 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (2), vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

I saw this on YouTube yesterday (dialog is not exact, typing it as I remember it):

...

Don't fall for the AI hype. As things currently stand, AI is just a fancy data processing/searching tool. Very useful, no doubt, but still far, far away from replacing humans.

Edit: OK, it makes fairies too...

I saw the same video at the exact same day. Funny.
But the verdict is correct. While AI is helping a lot of issues, mostly replacing stupid human bulk work and reducing effort and error (not in every way, though), it's still machine based learning. Not more, not less. It is what it is. It's like advertising a gorgeous looking, bulletproof SUV with supertruck powers and all you really get is a Cybertruck that collects rust faster than a regular four inch nail left on a beach, and i don't have to mention what's the catch about "bullet proof", right?

Yes, i'm really bad at comparisons, but all i'd like to point out was that AI is a bubble.

"Real" AI would have to be as complex as the human brain at least, and how the human brain does it's work is not fully understood by far. This is a basic requirement to get to remotely similar results.

Imagine not liking a bulletproof truck with 850 horsepower that runs on sunshine, drives itself, and can go 0-60 in 2.6 seconds… That’s almost as hard to believe as people getting mad at the person who tried to save them from losing half their savings. An odd bunch we have in these parts.

When i wrote the original reply, i didn't even read the thread that far  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

To be honest, it's only capable of making retarded fairies so far.


WUT?! retarded?!
You dare to make fun of our lovely fairy?
That's ChartBuddy blasphemy level right there!  Sad
 Grin Tongue Wink

Well, you say AI won't replace humans so soon.
My idea is that only Idiots will replace humans by AI, but maybe it'd be better to replace those idiots by humans then?
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Today at 07:48:25 PM

Cycles are dead.

Bitcoin is still the best canary in the coal mine.

(I have decided to just go ahead and die on this hill.)

What an odd thing to say when the opposite has already been proven to be true.
 

Does it help at all if I also believe that they're alive and well?

Schrödinger's 4-year cycle analysis.  Cheesy

Actually, this is an extremely apt analogy, as long as we're going to stay in the black and white frame.
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Today at 08:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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