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Well, I've definitely revised and reconsidered my strategies many times over the years, with regard to buying, HODLing, and selling Bitcoin, and the various criteria for doing so (spot price, 200-WMA price, timing within each 4-year cycle, fiat reserves, age, life plan, etc.).
It's going to sound anti-HODL, and kind of immature/illogical/stupid, but one of my goals was to get back all of my fiat-to-Bitcoin investment amount. Back to fiat. So, if, supposedly, I spent $1000 in total to buy Bitcoin @ $100 / coin, I would now have 10 BTC. I would then sell 0.015 BTC at current price ($67k), to get back my $1000, and still have 9.985 BTC, which would then be completely "free coins", in the sense that I haven't actually spent or lost anything to get them, except the gain I would have got if I had invested the $1000 somewhere else over the years, which would not have gotten me very far in the traditional, fiat system anyway. So, this is purely for psychological reasons, and does not really affect my Bitcoin stash, as the price appreciation is so huge that only a very small amount of BTC needs to be sold to get back to my fiat investment for my entire Bitcoin stash.
I do get the urge to get back the initial investment so that "we" are ONLY playing with house money, even though at the same time, it does not necessarily make a whole hell of a lot of sense when the BTC price had gone 670x (in your example).. so then how the hell would there be any meaningful likelihood that you might end up losing your initial investment.
Actually, I am pretty sure that you disclosed in some other posts over the years that your average cost per BTC is more likely in the $2k to $4k arena rather than in the $100 arena.. . to the extent that the multiples actually matter.
On a personal, level I have some challenges in my own calculations, since there can be a variety of ways of accounting, even though maybe our ballparked way of doing it might be to try to figure out how much we put into bitcoin over the years and then divide that into how many bitcoin that we currently have in order to get an approximation of the cost per BTC.
Surely there are some of us who likely sold some bitcoin along the way, so then there might be some calculation difficulties to figure out the extent to which we took out more dollars than the amount of BTC that we bought back or maybe there were some instances that we sold some bitcoin, but then we bought back more than we sold, so then the net effect was that we had ended up buying more bitcoin rather than selling more bitcoin.
11 years or more of bitcoining could have had various incidents along the way, and sometimes the accounting might have had been less than desirable - which also might be part of my own justification to sometimes take some artistic liberty in regards to proclaiming my own average costs per BTC.... and by the way, some guys will argue in regards to how I can have so many potential accounting issues with a stack size that is merely of a greater amount than 63 million stats, and surely there can be a lot of imaginatings that might be involved in the particularization process.
^ I hope the above is readable -- I typed it as I thought it.
Yes.. In the whole scheme of things, you are as clear as mud needs to be.
I would say that anything above 10 BTC (or maybe 20 BTC at the current price) is a good position to be in, for disengaging from financial dependence on outside sources.
I think that we are in the same ballpark of contemplation, in the average of a westerner, since even if we might be using some amount in the middle of that range to project a passive income of $80k per year with a 7% increase in the dollar withdrawal rate per year into the future, the standard of living still is not bad on average, even though surely some guys might be more high maintenance than others, but there still could be questions in regards to whether bitcoin happens to be the ONLY source of income or if there might be some supplemental sources of income.
We are under a bit more pressure if bitcoin happens to be the ONLY source of income and if we had already said fuck you.. and surely the longer that any of us might end up being out of the work force, then there might not be any real desires to get back into earning money through some form of mandatory work... even though sometimes, just keeping track of accounting matters can end up involving a certain amount of mandatory work. I recall some recent additional expenses that I had that were somewhat out of my control since another person was involved in the spending of my money, and I had to spend a certain amount of time moving money around in order to account for those extra expenses.. .which also involved some need to go through records and/or accounts in order to figure out from which funds those extra expenses would be drawn.. which might relate back to the bitcoin price when there might be some reluctance to draw much if any from the bitcoin holdings during times that the BTC price is relatively down, yet if there had been reluctance to draw from bitcoin funds in December 2025 and/or January 2026 when the BTC prices were bouncing around in the $90ks, then even more reluctance to spend from BTC might end up coming after the end of January when the BTC prices all of a sudden dropped into the $60ks. Maybe if the expenses are not very large, then it might not matter so much from where the funds are drawn, yet if the expenses are relatively large, then more dilemmas might develop in relation to considering from where the funds are drawn.
Then there may come life events that could disrupt this, like a serious medical issue or other major situation that requires a large expenditure, so one must be prepared for such events. Life insurance can cover the medical part, so most employed people shouldn't have to worry about it. Regardless, I would recommend for coiners with more than 10-20 BTC who feel they've reached their accumulation goal, to still have a healthy amount of fiat available for their immediate/mid-term needs -- when in Rome, do as Romans do.
It does seem that the larger our BTC stash might grow, then the more sense it makes to hold more value in dollar dependent sources too... and surely we might even get into ideas of diversification, so that if a guy might be consider that somewhere in the ballpark of 15 BTC is enough to maintain the regular income that he needs to withdraw, and then if he has an extra 5-ish BTC, there could be questions in regards to keeping all of that stash in BTC or considering the extent to which some of the value might be kept in cash or some other kinds of funds that might be drawn from first prior to drawing from the BTC (such as stocks, bonds, commodities, etc)...
So, yeah, when we start to divide out the various way that expenses might be held, then some guys might come to the conclusion that no amount of BTC is enough to cover all of their needs, which I surely do not agree with those kinds of assertions, since we can consider our basic income and then we can add the various back up categories and still arrive at a finite rather than an infinite number of BTC that is required to support our standard of living, even including some unexpected expenses or even accounting for from time to time splurges on HL&B... .. and yeah, there may be guys who want to have private yachts and private planes, and I am not going to proclaim that guys are not entitled to those kinds of perks to the extent that they might have to come to a realization in regards to the burn rate that they would have with those kinds of standard of living expectations.
Looks like price has returned to almost where it was (a.k.a. inverse Bart).
Of course, this is just noise, will not even register on a zoomed-out chart.
A good opportunity for no/low-coiners to buy.
Coiners with enough corn will have to wait it out (for the n-th time), or keep on selling small amounts as needed.
Tumbleweeds.
Edit: back down again. Even cheaper corn. note-to-self: stop looking at the 15-min chart!
I will admit that I attempt to temper any of my BTC selling behaviors, especially when the BTC price is in the ballpark of less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA. Right now the BTC spot price is in the ballpark of 15% higher than the 200-WMA.
I can understand that. Surely, now is not the best time to sell BTC (is there a best time?). The thing is, though, we can't live forever, and, unless you have children to pass your coins to (I don't), there will come a time when you won't be able to enjoy your coins as much as you can now. So, we should act wisely and make good use of our coins while we still can -- otherwise they are just entries on a ledger and don't mean anything in the real-life sense.
I cannot argue with any of that, and surely there are some guys who prescribe to ideas of trying to spend down all of their assets/wealth in order to attempt to die on zero, and there are other guys who might consider sustainable income and perhaps not spending the principle, yet there could be a bit of waste to the extent that they might not necessarily envision meritorious ways to pass down their wealth and/or their cornz. There are likely a decent number of guys who contemplate aspects of this kind of a dilemma, especially if they might have the convenient (sometimes referred to as 1st world) problem of finding themselves with enough or more than enough wealth.. and perhaps searching for ways to spend such wealth.
The Iran news just turned into a confirmed joint US-Israeli strike called Operation Epic Fury. Explosions reported in Tehran and Isfahan.
BTC is catching a falling knife right now down to $63,119 after $200M+ in longs just got nuked in under an hour. While somac. is looking for a bottom at $60k, we’re seeing a classic risk-off move where capital is fleeing to Gold while BTC bleeds with the indices. If $60k doesn't hold, the next stop is likely the 200-week MA near $58.5k.
https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/820333BTC will continue to bleed until Trump stops his madness. Israel and the USA attacked Iran and the war has snowballed into other parts of the middle east. Iran will not lie low waiting to be slaughtered byTrump. The consequences of this is war will affect the international market and bitcoins. People are scared weather it will result to world war thereby scared of the bitcoin. People will rather invest their money in gold business rather than Bitcoin because gold tend to be stable than BTC.
You are pathetic.
I probably should not be inviting shitcoin pumping in this here lovely thread to be asking the extent to which you really consider gold to be a superior investment relative to bitcoin, even if concededly gold seems to have some short term momentum?
Poll
