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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26944428 times)
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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everyone slacking off this morning, even the squirrels are sleeping in
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Today at 01:12:04 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:40:22 PM by BTCETFInvestor

An interesting analysis!  

Bitcoin Correction Hits 159 Days: Here Is How This Cycle Compares to 2017 and 2021

Bitcoin's 2025 correction spans 159 days, still far shorter than the 1,180-day recovery seen in 2017.



• Bitcoin marked its 2025 cycle top at $126,230 on October 6, starting a 159-day correction phase.

• The 2017 cycle took 1,180 days to reach a new ATH, while 2021 required 1,093 days to recover.

• For the first time ever, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in 2025 without a halving event preceding it.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 disrupted historical halving-driven market cycle patterns.


Bitcoin’s 159-Day Correction in Historical Context:

The cycle top for Bitcoin was recorded on October 6 at approximately $126,230. Since that date, the correction has extended to 159 days based on current market data. Many investors view this period as prolonged, though historical comparisons offer a contrasting view. Prior Bitcoin cycles consistently required far longer recovery timelines before reaching new highs.


Comparative data spanning Bitcoin’s most notable market cycles:

• The 2017 cycle required 1,180 days before Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high.

• The 2021 cycle required 1,093 days to reach that same milestone.

• The current 2025 cycle, by comparison, has so far lasted only 849 days from its peak.

Looking at these numbers, a clear trend toward shorter cycle durations becomes apparent. The time between Bitcoin’s all-time highs has been consistently shrinking across each major cycle.

This pattern points to Bitcoin’s continued maturation as a widely held global financial asset. For long-term holders who accumulate steadily rather than trade short-term moves, this trend is encouraging. It also suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery pace may continue to accelerate in future cycles.

When comparing previous corrections or bear markets from earlier cycles, it actually took much longer before a new ATH was reached.

► 2017 : 1180 days before a new ATH
► 2021 : 1093 days
► 2025 : 849 days

The positive takeaway is that the periodicity between ATHs appears to be shortening as Bitcoin continues to mature.

It is also interesting to note that halvings had always preceded a new ATH, except in the 2025 cycle which broke that pattern.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 clearly disrupted this historical cyclicality. Analysts do not think the halving itself is the main driver behind the creation of a new ATH. The end of bear market trends are usually already well advanced before the halving occurs.


~~~~~~~~~~~

Halvings, ETFs, and Bitcoin’s Long-Term Supply Dynamics:

• A key observation in the current Bitcoin cycle is the break from the established halving pattern. Historically, a Bitcoin halving had always come before a new all-time high in each prior cycle.

• The 2025 cycle broke that precedent for the first time in Bitcoin’s recorded history. This departure has prompted analysts to revisit traditional assumptions around halving-driven market cycles.

• Analysts directly link this pattern disruption to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These financial products introduced institutional demand that did not follow traditional halving-driven market cycles.

• The ETFs altered the timing dynamics that many traders and analysts had previously relied on. As a result, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high without waiting for a halving event to serve as a catalyst. Analysts think government reception will improve adoption resulting in tighter supply and shorter timing dynamics for Bitcoin's future ATHs.

• Despite the disrupted pattern, the halving continues to play a reduced role in Bitcoin’s broader supply picture. Each halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, gradually cutting the selling pressure from miners.

• Over extended periods, this steady reduction in supply decreases Bitcoin’s overall inflation rate. This mechanism remains a structural support for Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, independent of short-term cycle behavior.

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Today at 01:47:40 PM

An interesting analysis!  

Bitcoin Correction Hits 159 Days: Here Is How This Cycle Compares to 2017 and 2021

Bitcoin's 2025 correction spans 159 days, still far shorter than the 1,180-day recovery seen in 2017.



• Bitcoin marked its 2025 cycle top at $126,230 on October 6, starting a 159-day correction phase.

• The 2017 cycle took 1,180 days to reach a new ATH, while 2021 required 1,093 days to recover.

• For the first time ever, Bitcoin reached a new ATH in 2025 without a halving event preceding it.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 disrupted historical halving-driven market cycle patterns.


Bitcoin’s 159-Day Correction in Historical Context:

The cycle top for Bitcoin was recorded on October 6 at approximately $126,230. Since that date, the correction has extended to 159 days based on current market data. Many investors view this period as prolonged, though historical comparisons offer a contrasting view. Prior Bitcoin cycles consistently required far longer recovery timelines before reaching new highs.


Comparative data spanning Bitcoin’s most notable market cycles:

• The 2017 cycle required 1,180 days before Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high.

• The 2021 cycle required 1,093 days to reach that same milestone.

• The current 2025 cycle, by comparison, has so far lasted only 849 days from its peak.

Looking at these numbers, a clear trend toward shorter cycle durations becomes apparent. The time between Bitcoin’s all-time highs has been consistently shrinking across each major cycle.

This pattern points to Bitcoin’s continued maturation as a widely held global financial asset. For long-term holders who accumulate steadily rather than trade short-term moves, this trend is encouraging. It also suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery pace may continue to accelerate in future cycles.

When comparing previous corrections or bear markets from earlier cycles, it actually took much longer before a new ATH was reached.

► 2017 : 1180 days before a new ATH
► 2021 : 1093 days
► 2025 : 849 days

The positive takeaway is that the periodicity between ATHs appears to be shortening as Bitcoin continues to mature.

It is also interesting to note that halvings had always preceded a new ATH, except in the 2025 cycle which broke that pattern.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 clearly disrupted this historical cyclicality. Analysts do not think the halving itself is the main driver behind the creation of a new ATH. The end of bear market trends are usually already well advanced before the halving occurs.


~~~~~~~~~~~

Halvings, ETFs, and Bitcoin’s Long-Term Supply Dynamics:

• A key observation in the current Bitcoin cycle is the break from the established halving pattern. Historically, a Bitcoin halving had always come before a new all-time high in each prior cycle.

• The 2025 cycle broke that precedent for the first time in Bitcoin’s recorded history. This departure has prompted analysts to revisit traditional assumptions around halving-driven market cycles.

• Analysts directly link this pattern disruption to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These financial products introduced institutional demand that did not follow traditional halving-driven market cycles.

• The ETFs altered the timing dynamics that many traders and analysts had previously relied on. As a result, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high without waiting for a halving event to serve as a catalyst. Analysts think government reception will improve adoption resulting in tighter supply and shorter timing dynamics for Bitcoin's future ATHs.

• Despite the disrupted pattern, the halving continues to play a reduced role in Bitcoin’s broader supply picture. Each halving reduces the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, gradually cutting the selling pressure from miners.

• Over extended periods, this steady reduction in supply decreases Bitcoin’s overall inflation rate. This mechanism remains a structural support for Bitcoin’s long-term price performance, independent of short-term cycle behavior.



The correction ended the day we hit 71k

59k to 71k is plus 20% so we are in the beginning of a new bull run.

Of course it is a bare minimum to qualify. But it is plus  20% so if we float around at 71k or so it is baby bull beginning  not correction.

With Iran popping drones and missiles all over the middle east many are stacking wealth into btc since you can blow up a house you can blow up a painting but you can't blow up btc if it is stored correctly.
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Today at 02:15:06 PM

fast sandwich made for lunch time.

here is some sat morning f.u.d.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-threatens-irans-oil-044416352.html

so Iran still doing missiles at random spots across the Middle East.






me a rich guy in the Middle East I am buying corn as I can stash it in the clouds safely

thus btc go up.


Still sucks if you live anywhere in the middle east.
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Nighty Night, Mr. Bear, it's time for you to hibernate. And Mr. Bull, it's time to wake up and run really fast!

With a red hue on the bear side and a green hue on the bull side, it would be perfect. Although, bull+red makes sense too.

I like her new magic wand(s) (with the crystals). Very Myst-like (if you know, you know).

That's funny. When I made it, I was actually considering changing the colors of the things exactly as you say. But I was just messing around and I had just been messing around the whole time.
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Today at 02:50:32 PM

fast sandwich made for lunch time.

here is some sat morning f.u.d.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-threatens-irans-oil-044416352.html

so Iran still doing missiles at random spots across the Middle East.

me a rich guy in the Middle East I am buying corn as I can stash it in the clouds safely

thus btc go up.

Still sucks if you live anywhere in the middle east.

When I think that countries that have so much money sit like clay pigeons and wait for rockets and drones instead of responding to attacks with the same force. Honestly, I expected that Iran's military capability would be pretty much destroyed by now, but they have obviously been preparing for decades for what is happening to them right now.

I read that there is mention of the possibility of US and Israeli special forces breaking into underground facilities and trying to seize or destroy enriched uranium, which would probably lead to the end of the attack.
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Today at 03:39:13 PM

fast sandwich made for lunch time.

here is some sat morning f.u.d.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/latest-trump-threatens-irans-oil-044416352.html

so Iran still doing missiles at random spots across the Middle East.

me a rich guy in the Middle East I am buying corn as I can stash it in the clouds safely

thus btc go up.

Still sucks if you live anywhere in the middle east.

When I think that countries that have so much money sit like clay pigeons and wait for rockets and drones instead of responding to attacks with the same force. Honestly, I expected that Iran's military capability would be pretty much destroyed by now, but they have obviously been preparing for decades for what is happening to them right now.

I read that there is mention of the possibility of US and Israeli special forces breaking into underground facilities and trying to seize or destroy enriched uranium, which would probably lead to the end of the attack.

Seizing the enriched uranium is really not feasible.  Destroying or disabling Iran’s enriched uranium capability is the best approach - mostly by massive and repeated airstrikes, sabotage, and collapsing access to facilities - - not by physically removing every gram of uranium.

Physically seizing the material would require large, complex ground operations with heavy equipment and WMD‑handling units, inside hostile, fortified territory - militarily possible in theory, but extraordinarily risky and highly escalatory.

Serious analyses keeps coming back to the same conclusion; you can set the program back, but fully securing or eliminating all enriched uranium is extremely hard, especially once it’s dispersed in different unknown areas and deep underground under mountainous areas.

I personally look for massive, repeated airstrikes to take place, collapsing access to facilities that are believed to be used to store Iran’s already enriched uranium or is used to enrich it.   
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It's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist, yellow cake anyone?
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Today at 04:32:56 PM
Last edit: Today at 04:55:52 PM by BTCETFInvestor

It's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist, yellow cake anyone?

It sounds like you're referencing the infamous Niger uranium forgeries, where the phrase "it's impossible to seize something that doesn't exist" became a cynical summary of the search for Iraqi WMDs.

The "yellowcake" controversy centered on a set of documents; later proven to be crude forgeries suggesting Saddam Hussein tried to buy 500 tons of uranium from Niger.

The assertion that it is impossible to seize something that does not exist is true in principle, but the case of Iraqi yellowcake involves a complex distinction between pre-existing stockpiles and alleged new acquisitions.


Here is the factual breakdown based on historical records:

The "Non-Existent" Yellowcake (The Allegation): The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq was partially justified by claims that Saddam Hussein had attempted to purchase "large quantities" of yellowcake uranium from Niger. These claims were based on forged documents (mentioned above) and were determined to be false before the war began. In this sense, the alleged new African yellowcake did not exist.

However, Saddam Hussein did have a large amount of pre-existing yellowcake in Iraq and it was seized:

While the allegation about new purchases was false, the United States did secure a large amount of pre-existing yellowcake (roughly 550 metric tons) stored at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center south of Baghdad. This was not a new purchase but rather leftovers from Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program from before the 1991 Gulf War.

Final Disposition: In 2008, after years of the material being unguarded and looted, a secret US mission finalized the removal of this 1991-era yellowcake from Iraq to Canada for use in nuclear energy facilities.

In summary: The 'yellowcake' Iraq was accused of trying to buy (after 2000) was nonexistent forged intel; the 'yellowcake' that existed in stockpiles (before 1991) was eventually seized, sold, and removed.

So, the fact of the matter is this - 'yellowcake' absolutely did exist in Iraq and it was thought that Saddam Hussein had attempted to purchase 'large quantities' more of 'yellowcake' uranium from Niger.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is what is known about the origin of the forgeries - Multiple investigations - journalistic, intelligence, and diplomatic - converge on the same core facts:

• SISMI (Italy’s military intelligence service) was the first entity to circulate the documents in 2001. They were passed to U.S. and U.K. intelligence as evidence that Iraq sought to buy 500 tons of yellowcake uranium from Niger.

• Rocco Martino, a former Carabinieri officer with ties to SISMI, was the middleman who attempted to sell the documents. He later claimed he was encouraged by an Italian intelligence officer, Antonio Nucera, to distribute them for money.

• The documents were quickly exposed as crude forgeries - containing wrong names, wrong dates, and even signatures of long-retired officials. The IAEA determined they were fake within hours of examination.
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Today at 05:14:32 PM

The correction ended the day we hit 71k

59k to 71k is plus 20% so we are in the beginning of a new bull run.

Of course it is a bare minimum to qualify. But it is plus  20% so if we float around at 71k or so it is baby bull beginning  not correction.

With Iran popping drones and missiles all over the middle east many are stacking wealth into btc since you can blow up a house you can blow up a painting but you can't blow up btc if it is stored correctly.

According to Grok there were 3 bear market bounces of 20% or more during the crash of 2022 before the market eventually hit bottom. While I don’t put any value on the number of bounces, a 20% rally not leading to a bull run is nothing new. Failure to put in a new short term high above $74K was a clear indicator the trend is still down.
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