Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

I find this interesting; I think others will too!

Predicting the exact price of Bitcoin is notoriously difficult, but with the 20 millionth coin recently mined in March 2026, we can use established economic models and institutional forecasts to project the landscape for the next two halvings.

1. April 2028: The 5th Halving (The "Supply Shock" Phase)

By April 2028, the block reward will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Historically, the market begins to "price in" the halving about 6–12 months in advance.

Likely Price Range: $150,000 – $500,000.

Standard Chartered and Pantera Capital have issued forecasts in this range, citing the "halving-driven supply shock" as the primary driver.

The "Cost of Production" Floor: Some analysts estimate the cost to mine a single Bitcoin will jump to roughly $142,000 immediately after the 2028 halving. Since Bitcoin rarely stays below its production cost for long, this creates a strong psychological and economic floor.

Investor Demand: Expect "Extreme Institutionalization." By 2028, Bitcoin ETFs will likely be a standard part of pension funds and sovereign wealth fund portfolios. Demand will shift from "speculative" to "strategic reserve."

2. April 2032: The 6th Halving (The "Scarcity" Phase)

In 2032, the reward drops to a tiny 0.78125 BTC. By this point, over 98% of all Bitcoin will have been mined.

Likely Price Range: $500,000 – $1,200,000+.

Ark Invest (Cathie Wood): Despite recent adjustments due to stablecoin competition, Ark’s base case for the early 2030s remains around $1 million per coin.

The $1 Million Milestone: Many models, including the Stock-to-Flow and Power Law, converge on the $1M mark around the 2032–2033 cycle.

Investor Demand: We will likely see a "Supply Vacuum." By 2032, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin will be so low (roughly 112 BTC per day globally) that a single large corporation or mid-sized country's treasury buy could trigger massive price swings.


Look at the huge projected increase in Institutional Allocation between 2028 vs. 2032:

[cAPSLOCK]

For those who are up for a bit of a wilder take on interpreting what's happening in the world from a game theoretical perspective, the recent Brett Weinstein interview with Tucker Carlson is pretty interesting.

I'm neither a huge fan of either of those two nor do I hate them. Sometimes I think Tucker could be read into something. I mean his dad worked for Voice of America... almost obvious

But but Winestein's interpretation of what he sees happening is fairly apocalyptic, very interesting, and I think prescient.

I suppose I should be careful with the apocalypse word. 

[vapourminer]

looks like Iran had to shut down a lot of mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

this is an interest effect of the war which will help all miners other than those in Iran

maybe 70eh of gear is offline

[...]

what is more interesting is did it get blown up?

and will Iran attempt to blow up or has blown up some other middle eastern countries

mines.

what makes you think its Iran that had all that hash that went offline?

[BTCETFInvestor]

For those who are up for a bit of a wilder take on interpreting what's happening in the world from a game theoretical perspective, the recent Brett Weinstein interview with Tucker Carlson is pretty interesting.

I'm neither a huge fan of either of those two nor do I hate them. Sometimes I think Tucker could be read into something. I mean his dad worked for Voice of America... almost obvious

But but Winestein's interpretation of what he sees happening is fairly apocalyptic, very interesting, and I think prescient.

I suppose I should be careful with the apocalypse word. 

How about opinionated hypermetropia?

Was there supposed to be a link to the interview?

[philipma1957]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory? 

Like it or not

Russia
China
USA

Can kill 70-95% of humanity.

Pakistan
India
France
Great Britan all have some nukes

Oh Israel has some.


USA left every war since Korea.

Korea was a push since South Korea still around.

So the only things this war will do is sell missiles and drones.

It will also jack up oil prices.

So I don't not see the benefit to us in the usa.

Unless you make missles, drones or drill oil in a safe place.

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

[philipma1957]

looks like Iran had to shut down a lot of mines.

https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

this is an interest effect of the war which will help all miners other than those in Iran

maybe 70eh of gear is offline

[...]

what is more interesting is did it get blown up?

and will Iran attempt to blow up or has blown up some other middle eastern countries

mines.

what makes you think its Iran that had all that hash that went offline?

Looking for a link.  But I will mention I was asked about moving 10,000 miners out of Iran about a week before the war started.

Person want to know if I had a shipping source.

So based on that question back around Feb 20 and 259,259.259 s21xps worth of hash dropping off line.

I am guessing the mines there were big.

I had a chance to get 2 cent hosting in Iran back in 2022 they had 40 megawatts which is about 10,000 s21xps.


I could be wrong and only 10,000 of the 259,259.259 s21xps offline are from Iran.

But the s21xp makes 8.30 a day and burns 4.20 a day at 5 cents about 4.10 dollars a day

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/02/28/iran-conflict-throws-the-regime-s-usd7-8-billion-crypto-ecosystem-and-bitcoin-mining-network-into-spotlight

Some info above shows they did have a lot of miners last month.


But no definitive info on exact amount shut down

[BTCETFInvestor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/videos-satellite-images-show-irans-100000089.html



Videos and satellite images show Iran's drone army puncturing U.S. and allied defenses
Jane Lytvynenko
Sat, March 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM EDT

The buzz came before the explosion. An aerial vehicle dove from the cloudless sky toward its target at Camp Buehring, a U.S. military base in Kuwait. It struck near a running track with a fiery plume of black smoke.

“Oh s---t,” a man recording from the base said. “Oh my God. Oh, that was right here. They’re f---ing getting… They’re starting to dial into our building.”

The video ends as the smoke billows in the desert outpost.

The footage of this attack, posted online on March 1 but possibly filmed earlier, is one of over 30 open-source videos and satellite images verified by NBC News showing Iranian drone strikes and interceptions by the U.S. and its allies across seven countries. Apparent targets include military bases, transportation hubs, energy infrastructure and diplomatic centers. In 21 of 26 videos, drones appear to reach their targets.



21 out of 26 successful attacks

moron will likely be nuking soon

been good knowing all of you.

Phil - So, you think this military campaign against Iran to protect Americans and Israelis will be a pyrrhic victory? 

Like it or not

Russia
China
USA

Can kill 70-95% of humanity.

Pakistan
India
France
Great Britan all have some nukes

Oh Israel has some.


USA left every war since Korea.

Korea was a push since South Korea still around.

So the only things this war will do is sell missiles and drones.

It will also jack up oil prices.

So I don't not see the benefit to us in the usa.

Unless you make missles, drones or drill oil in a safe place.

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

But of those countries you listed, only Iran is saying 'DEATH TO AMERICA'... 

[nutildah]

But of those countries you listed, only Iran is saying 'DEATH TO AMERICA'...  

The country of Iran isn't saying that. Its certain people inside the country that say that. I imagine every country has at least a few people who say that.

Lumping an entire nation into one retarded category so you can consider them "less than" and bombable is itself retarded.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

Yes, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of approximately 2,500 Marines to the Middle East to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid an escalating campaign with Iran. This rapid response force, primarily consisting of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), is being redirected from the Indo-Pacific to reinforce the more than 50,000 American troops already in the region.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

Yes, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of approximately 2,500 Marines to the Middle East to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid an escalating campaign with Iran. This rapid response force, primarily consisting of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), is being redirected from the Indo-Pacific to reinforce the more than 50,000 American troops already in the region.

Well my hybrid gets 48 MPG and I am thinking gas will be high for a year or more.

Edit due to spell check

[BTCETFInvestor]

But of those countries you listed, only Iran is saying 'DEATH TO AMERICA'...  

The country of Iran isn't saying that. Its certain people inside the country that say that. I imagine every country has at least a few people who say that.

Lumping an entire nation into one retarded category so you can consider them "less than" and bombable is itself retarded.

Well, Iran's leaders and military have sure taken it to heart and killed over 1,000 Americans. And when the Supreme Leader constantly says 'Death to America' we better take it seriously...

[nutildah]

Well, Iran's leaders and military have sure taken it to heart and killed over 1,000 Americans. And when the Supreme Leader constantly says 'Death to America' we better take it seriously...

I shouldn't have said anything in the first place... that was my fault.

That's the thing about politics: everyone thinks they have their own opinion that they formed with their own brain, but they don't, they are just parroting back the narrative they feel most comfortable with.

99% of online political discussion is just the reguritation of talking points... nobody learns a single thing.

Its really a pointless endeavor.


Anyway go Bitcoin.

Anyone going to BTC Vegas in April? I'm trying to go. PM me and lets meet up.

[Biodom]

I saw that 2500 Marines are getting deployed but I no longer can find the link.

The marine deployment means there are far more drones then were
thought.

Yes, the Pentagon ordered the deployment of approximately 2,500 Marines to the Middle East to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid an escalating campaign with Iran. This rapid response force, primarily consisting of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), is being redirected from the Indo-Pacific to reinforce the more than 50,000 American troops already in the region.

Well my hybrid gets 48 might and I am thinking gas will be high for a year or more

The interesting part of the GFC of 2007-2008 was that the price of oil went to $147 in July 2008, after which it entered a secular decline to close to a zero (it even went negative in the futures in 2020 during COVID, which was, of course, temporary).

I always thought that WS by jacking the oil price 2X between 2007 and 2008 was doing so to "fight" the housing deflation, but eventually they failed and oil declined sharply into the GFC peak in Q4 2008-Q1 2009.
18 years later and even in a regional war-like situation, we are still almost 40% below 2008 prices (yet).
I don't make any predictions here, but AI "impulse" was going to be generally deflationary, imho.
What now?

EDIT: Gold already peaked, maybe bitcoin would be the "horse" to fight the AI caused deflation?
One may dream, perhaps, but it would be a bit annoying if oil alone would be such "agent".

[JayJuanGee]

[edit out]

yep and since I get show in many searches it behoves us all to agree it is a baby bull

not like the morons screaming bear bear bear bear.

You must be egging for a fight.

In other words, we do not need to agree on shit...

And, whether we agree or not, bitcoin no gives no shits.

We do not type into a vacuum JJG philipma1957 biodom ognasty have long google hits relating to btc and bitcointalk

so bull bull bull is better than bear bear bear.

You are not going to get me to pump shit.. and by the way, OgNasty is surely currently in the bear, bear, bear camp.

Apparently ONLY you and Biodom (perhaps some other stragglers?) agree that there iss even such a thing as "baby bull."

You deserve a BIG ASS batslappening for even agreeing with Biodom on such level of dumb.

and if it really shows bear bear bear simply do not use that term.

At this particular moment, as I type this post, I think that we are slightly more inclined towards bear rather than bull, just because it seems that around late January-ish we got knocked out of the bull and we had not gotten back into a bull.. yet.. and perhap I won't agree that we are back in bull until we have something like a week closing above $100k.. and maybe if such a thing were to occur (an "if" is an "if"), then perhaps i might even be ready, willing and able to either say.. wow.. "I was wrong that we had ever been in a bear"  or "that 'bear' was so quick that I barely even noticed it." or some other words to that effect... maybe even labelling it as a "baby bear" for funzies.

In any event you are not going to get me to fall into line with any stupid ass talking point as if we were a marketing department for dee cornz.. and, I know both Biodom and OgNasty well enough that they are both different, yet they have in common that they are not going to be falling into other people's talking points.

You're even the same way, you largely stubborn fuck..      #nohomo

why generate fodder for the al gore rhythm  of bear?
unless of course you bet bear like og did

and he would not want a drift up to 80k then sideways till the fall with more up as the Middle East war lingers.

None of us have any choice about what dee cornz do or do not do.  

Even if after the fact some of us might be inclined to say "I told you so."

My circle of fellow geeks here and nobody said,  "Happy Pi Day!"
Sheesh!

You are not no nobody.. and I am sure that some guys in these here parts were likely merely waiting so that you could get credit.

 

[edited out]

Phil - You must be very proud of what Hussein Obama did with American taxpayer money to help Iran fund their terrorism as shown in the video link below!    
For someone that served in the U.S. Navy and retired from a U.S. government job with the IRS; you should be ashamed of yourself!
https://youtu.be/tLJfLLSpndA?t=3  

How about there are ways for Trump to miscalculate an attack on Iran, and then have regret yet at the same time not failing to blame someone else for his miscalculations.

What a dumb fuck...

Trump is probably saying:  

"I did not know that they were so capable.. someone must have had helped them 10 years earlier.. blah blah blah."..

or perhaps Trump saying:

"I thought that I would magically pronounce the conflict to have had ended and that everything would go back to 'normal' (like it was prior to my dumbass decision action to bomb, bomb bomb Iran), but for some reason the conflict did not magically end when i pronounced that it was 'officially' ended."

and perhaps at some point Trump saying:

"at some point, thing will go back to how the were previously, everyone will like me, I will get the Nobel Prize in Peace yet in the meantime, if it is not happening as expected, then 'it's not my fault.' "

[Biodom]

Apparently ONLY you and Biodom (perhaps some other stragglers?) agree that there iss even such a thing as "baby bull."

You proclaim here that "baby bulls" aka bull calves do not exist?
Seriously?
Lol

...I kid, I kid

[philipma1957]

Apparently ONLY you and Biodom (perhaps some other stragglers?) agree that there iss even such a thing as "baby bull."

You proclaim here that "baby bulls" aka bull calves do not exist?
Seriously?
Lol

...I kid, I kid

The conflict is unfolding as if it will last a minimum of six months .

Which means 70-90k looks good for next six months