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Question: Is the "bear market" over?
Yes - 25 (35.7%)
No - we need to sweep the low again - 14 (20%)
No - we need to set a new low first - 20 (28.6%)
No - other (explain below) - 11 (15.7%)
Total Voters: 70

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26992480 times)
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June 21, 2026, 12:12:43 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

M$ attack vectors never end.

Quote
Microsoft says it has detected new self-propagating malware that spreads through USB drives in search of cryptocurrency credentials, which it then sends to attacker-controlled servers.

The company named the worm Crypto Clipper because it monitors the contents of device clipboards for patterns consistent with wallet addresses or seed phrases. When found, the malware also takes five screenshots over a 10-second period. Both the credentials and the screenshots are then sent to the attacker through Tor, a network protocol that provides anonymous routing by sending traffic through redundant nodes so logs can’t capture both the sending and receiving IP addresses. Crypto Clipper establishes the Tor connection by using a SOCKS5 proxy, a network protocol that sends traffic through a proxy server, which then forwards it to its final destination.

https://arstechnica.com/security/2026/06/microsoft-spots-new-self-propagating-malware-for-stealing-cryptocurrency/
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June 21, 2026, 12:22:06 AM

Holy shit, I used to love the summer but now I cant take the sun anymore.
Side effect of aging. Cheesy

yeah 76f to 83f are all the temps that work for me.

Or 24.44 c to 28.33 c

I prefer 68 to 78f.


I now get cold at 68 if in it for any long period of time.  and 68 with a breeze is a lock for stiff neck or back.

so in the summer I set ac at 76 or 77

in the winter i set heat at 78 or 79.


insulation all over like mad so it helps the higher heat setting and the ac keeps house right at 76/77 without much effort.

glad i stick with mac in general
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June 21, 2026, 01:04:27 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Guys like Trump can never have enough. The ONLY reason he stepped down the last time was that his hand was forced.. which probably will have to happen again, this time, even though he might be preparing for a better fight (with words) since he may well not be physically capable of doing much besides getting others to do his bidding and talk a BIG talk while recking most if not all things that he touches.
Step down? He's not supposed to step down. He lost the election (fairly or not) and left as is supposed to happen. The only way to step down in 2020 would be to not seek reelection. Like Biden stepped down because it was obviously going to be a train wreck.
Sure they were both whining in their own ways, yet at the same time all politics and all the various ways of whining that happened with Trump as compared with Biden are not the same.. .so "what about" arguments tend to not be very good ones..
It is not 'what abouting' it is showing you what stepping down actually is since you seem to have trouble understanding how the election process actually works.

If I was going to 'what about', I would probably bring up Al Gore conceding on election night and then unconceding shortly after. But I'm not so I won't.

You seem to love your politics, and twist yourself into all kinds of contortions in order to make your points and to avoid recognizing the point that I was making about your whining twat red-headed buddy.

[edited out]
I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Gosh AlcoHoDL - those are pretty damned low odds, and sure, of course, we are in a bit of a quagmire right now with the BTC price refusing to go up.

I also would agree with any suggestion that it can take some time to both build up and confirm momentum, so the BTC price does not tend to just go shooting up without some amount of momentum building. 

Remember in 2019 when we got 3.5x in 3 months from April ($4,200) to June ($13,880)?

Maybe to express a bit more clearly from our current price, as I type this post (of $64,100), getting to $1 million would be approximately 15.6x, and yeah, I can recognize that even if we go all the way to the bottom of our 2022 low of $15,479, we ONLY got slightly more than a 8.1x if we consider $126,272 as our current ATH.

I still would place the odds of $1million before the 2028 halvening as somewhere between 5% and 10% odds, even though I would also consider our difference of opinion to not be extreme enough to be bettable.. .and yeah, when I typed out the actual numbers and the timeline, it got me to consider that your odds assignment might not be as low as my first impression of it.

good morning w.o.
just woke up  and read some posts

I like a 1 million dollar coin as much as the other.
I think I prefer spcx going to 2000 a share
but whatever.

That is because you are distracted, and you might not even know what thread you are in.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......
1 year
The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.

Yeah, but.  Be more specific.  What is the number for "not bad" in two cycles?

And you realize that many of us consider a cycle to be 4 years, so are you talking about two cycles from today?  That would be by mid-2034.  My non-corrected table shows the bottom for BTC prices to be $496k by mid-2034, but my personal corrected one shows the bottom to be $353k... so I cannot really fight, even though, I consider reasonable spot prices to be somewhere around at least 25% above the bottom prices, at most times.

But one public supporter of Bitcoin must do overly confident predictions, no matter how wrong they are, else they get overlooked. The plebs will forget the wrong predictions in a few months anyway.

It has always been the case that notable bitcoiners have thrown out all kinds of wild BTC price predictions, yet at the same time, the stories of notable bitcoiners (including but not limited to Adam Back) seem to be increasingly showing them to be compromised... .slay your heros.

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......
1 year
The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.
But one public supporter of Bitcoin must do overly confident predictions, no matter how wrong they are, else they get overlooked. The plebs will forget the wrong predictions in a few months anyway.
That's exactly my prediction ($1M/BTC in 2034).
And even this is overly optimistic IMHO. But much more probable than that McAfee-style stunt of Adam Back.

So?  You are saying greater than 50% odds by 2034?  or something else?

By the way, I understand that any of us could have a series of scenarios that are plotted out, and even what we consider to be the most-likely (the base-case) scenario, it still might not have a majority, even though the base case scenario might have the greatest odds (even something like 35%) out of all of the scenarios, and all of the other possible scenarios, from our point of view, have lower odds than our base case scenario.

(I'm retarded)

You can say that again.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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June 21, 2026, 02:06:37 AM

BobClawblaw's WO News Digest - 2026-06-20 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-06-20 09:06 PM CT

It is Saturday, and the market is grinding sideways in thin weekend liquidity, holding steady around $64,191 despite the lingering shadow of Extreme Fear. While the broader sentiment remains cautious at 23, the dominant headline is Strategy's massive balance sheet turnaround, proving their reserves now eclipse debt by $48 billion after surviving the 2022 crisis. This structural confidence is providing a floor, even as the price sits roughly 5% below its 30-day moving average.

Keep an eye on whether the weekend liquidity dries up enough to let the $64k support test lower, or if the Strategy narrative sustains the current plateau. Watch the options market closely; with heavy positioning at the $120k strike for late 2026, traders are betting on a long-term recovery rather than immediate volatility.

PRICE ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,191.00 USD (+1.07% 24h change).
Bitcoin is trading at $64,191, which is notably below the 30-day average of $67,622, reflecting the recent downward pressure seen in the 7-day trend (-2.34%). However, the 24-hour change of +1.07% suggests a stabilization rather than a continued decline, especially given the thin weekend volume. The spot arbitrage premium is positive at +$64169.54, with Coinbase and Kraken showing slight premiums, indicating steady demand in major venues despite the broader fear. With the Fear & Greed Index at 23 for seven consecutive days, the market is pricing in caution, but the recent +3 point shift suggests the extreme fear is beginning to ease slightly.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

Strategy's Balance Sheet Turnaround: The company now holds 846,842 BTC, with reserves exceeding debt by $48 billion, a massive recovery from the 2022 deficit that stabilizes long-term holder sentiment.
Long-Term Options Positioning: Traders are loading up on $120K call options through December 2026, signaling a belief in significant future upside despite current extreme fear.
ETF Fee Competition: VanEck's HODL (0.20% fee) is competing against iShares' IBIT ($49.5B AUM, 0.25% fee), highlighting the scale advantage of the heavyweight despite the small fee difference.
Regulatory Clarity Push: 1,200 tech firms including Apple and Amazon are urging the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act to reduce regulatory uncertainty and keep U.S. markets competitive.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy's Bitcoin Reserves Surpass Debt by $48B After 2022 Crisis
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/michael-saylor-reflects-on-strategys-bitcoin-crisis-after-btc-fell-below-16k
Published: 2026-06-20 07:30 PM CT
Summary: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) now holds 846,842 BTC, a massive increase from the 130,000 it held in October 2022. The company survived a period where its debt exceeded its crypto holdings by raising over $60 billion in additional capital. Michael Saylor notes that the firm's reserves now exceed its debt by approximately $48 billion, a sharp turnaround from the $300 million deficit seen during the 2022 crypto winter. At the time of the 2022 downturn, Bitcoin traded below $16,000 and Strategy's stock dropped to the $13 range. The company's current dashboard lists $53.83 billion in BTC reserves against $6.75 billion in debt, with the stock trading near $112.53.

2. Bitcoin Options Traders Load up on $120K Strike Through December 2026
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-options-traders-load-up-on-120k-strike-through-december-2026
Published: 2026-06-20 06:35 PM CT

3. HODL vs IBIT: Lower Fees or Bigger Scale
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/lower-fee-bigger-bitcoin-etf-221632824.html
Published: 2026-06-20 06:16 PM CT
Summary: VanEck's HODL charges 0.20% while iShares' IBIT charges 0.25%. The difference is small but adds up over years. IBIT holds $49.5 billion in assets, making it the heavyweight. HODL sits at $1.1 billion, a fraction of the size. Both track Bitcoin's price directly without managing keys.

4. Prediction Markets Hit Record $10.8B Weekly Volume
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-markets-hit-record-10-8-billion-week-as-spacex-ipo-world-cup-drive-surge
Published: 2026-06-20 05:36 PM CT
Summary: Prediction market trading volume hit a record $10.8 billion for the week ending June 15, 2026, according to A16z data. The surge was driven by a cluster of major events: the SpaceX IPO, a U.S.-Iran peace deal, and global sports finals. Weekly baseline activity has climbed steadily from under $1 billion a year ago to the $6-7 billion range this spring. Kalshi and Polymarket led the volume, with other platforms like Opinion and Predictdotfun contributing to the total. Despite the trading boom, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 23, indicating extreme fear in the broader market.

5. 1,200 Tech Firms Urge Senate to Pass CLARITY Act
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/1200-tech-companies-push-senate-to-pass-clarity-act-quickly-as-us-crypto-rules-face-global-pressure
Published: 2026-06-20 08:30 PM CT
Summary: The Consumer Technology Association, representing giants like Apple and Amazon, wants the Senate to quickly pass the CLARITY Act. They argue that current regulatory uncertainty is complicating compliance and long-term investment planning. The House has already approved the bill, and the Senate Banking Committee has voted it through, leaving only the full Senate floor vote. The goal is to keep U.S. markets competitive against overseas jurisdictions with clearer rules.

6. Cryptoquant CEO Stands Alone as Analysts Turn Bearish on Bitcoin
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/as-top-analysts-turn-bearish-on-bitcoin-cryptoquants-ceo-stands-almost-alone
Published: 2026-06-20
Summary: Bitcoin has shed roughly $25,000 since the start of the year, trading near $70,000. Top analysts have flipped bearish, leaving Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju as a rare bull. He warns the slump could drag into early 2027, citing a lack of unrealized profit cushion. The real danger isn't a crash, but prolonged market boredom that drains capital. Ju views the current bearish consensus as a sentiment gauge that might eventually flip.

7. Bitcoin Network Activity Rises as Price Falls
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-network-activity-rising-btc-145951409.html
Published: 2026-06-20 10:59 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin is trading near $63,865, roughly half its all-time high of $126,080. Despite the price drop, network transaction counts are climbing to levels not seen since late 2024. This surge is driven by small, protocol-level transactions rather than large value transfers. Most daily activity now consists of dust-sized amounts under 0.01 BTC, totaling about 80% of all transactions. The rise in OP_RETURN usage confirms these are automated data stamps, not significant economic moves.

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June 21, 2026, 03:03:34 AM

You seem to love your politics, and twist yourself into all kinds of contortions in order to make your points and to avoid recognizing the point that I was making about your whining twat red-headed buddy.

You weren't saying anything factual so you weren't making a point. Far from 'contortions', I'm simply stating the unvarnished facts. I'll accept this poor attempt at deflection as your confession.
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June 21, 2026, 03:27:07 AM

You seem to love your politics, and twist yourself into all kinds of contortions in order to make your points and to avoid recognizing the point that I was making about your whining twat red-headed buddy.
You weren't saying anything factual so you weren't making a point. Far from 'contortions', I'm simply stating the unvarnished facts. I'll accept this poor attempt at deflection as your confession.

We might be talking past each other, yet if I am characterizing your poor loser buddy as whining and not wanting to leave, then there are likely well known facts embedded into such assertion without my having to spell each of the facts out.  

And, then your trying to proclaim that he left without any whining is a different characterization of what happened.  I am not deflecting, even though there is likely little to no need to go into details in terms of which facts and logic supported my conclusions regarding your largely destructive shit-stirring twat buddy not wanting to leave, but largely being forced out.
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June 21, 2026, 09:15:05 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

[...]

[edited out]

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Gosh AlcoHoDL - those are pretty damned low odds, and sure, of course, we are in a bit of a quagmire right now with the BTC price refusing to go up.

I also would agree with any suggestion that it can take some time to both build up and confirm momentum, so the BTC price does not tend to just go shooting up without some amount of momentum building.  

Remember in 2019 when we got 3.5x in 3 months from April ($4,200) to June ($13,880)?

Maybe to express a bit more clearly from our current price, as I type this post (of $64,100), getting to $1 million would be approximately 15.6x, and yeah, I can recognize that even if we go all the way to the bottom of our 2022 low of $15,479, we ONLY got slightly more than a 8.1x if we consider $126,272 as our current ATH.

I still would place the odds of $1million before the 2028 halvening as somewhere between 5% and 10% odds, even though I would also consider our difference of opinion to not be extreme enough to be bettable.. .and yeah, when I typed out the actual numbers and the timeline, it got me to consider that your odds assignment might not be as low as my first impression of it.

I'd like the odds to be higher. But I don't see it happening. The price would need to do a 4x in two consecutive years. That's 4x * 4x = 16x in total. 16 x $63k = $1M. Given that cycles' effects get progressively diminished, I can't even see a single 4x happening in a single year, let alone two 4x happening in two consecutive years... All that is assuming cycle theory still holds to some extent and Bitcoin follows an overall "regular" trend, as seen in the zoomed-out 200-WMA line.

Of course, Bitcoin may one day break its "regularity" (if one could call it that) and shoot up to a very high price, due to some very positive event. Then, anything is possible, but this is, by definition, very unpredictable, so I wouldn't give it any specific odds. I just hope it happens...


[...]

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......
1 year

The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.
But one public supporter of Bitcoin must do overly confident predictions, no matter how wrong they are, else they get overlooked. The plebs will forget the wrong predictions in a few months anyway.

That's exactly my prediction ($1M/BTC in 2034).
And even this is overly optimistic IMHO. But much more probable than that McAfee-style stunt of Adam Back.

So?  You are saying greater than 50% odds by 2034?  or something else?

By the way, I understand that any of us could have a series of scenarios that are plotted out, and even what we consider to be the most-likely (the base-case) scenario, it still might not have a majority, even though the base case scenario might have the greatest odds (even something like 35%) out of all of the scenarios, and all of the other possible scenarios, from our point of view, have lower odds than our base case scenario.

[...]

Maybe 20-30%? That sounds like a reasonable estimate. But $1M is just a round number, and we humans like round numbers.

The odds of having the usual two ATHs in the next two cycles are very high, and that's what matters (for me at least).
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June 21, 2026, 09:39:09 AM
Last edit: June 21, 2026, 10:07:50 AM by DirtyKeyboard
Merited by El duderino_ (10), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Time to make a recommendation of a film most people haven't seen that you'd recommend, I'll go first.

Big trouble in little China.



I don't think anyone mentioned this one about a different Chopper.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)
Code:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)

Worth 90 minutes if you've got it, imo.

Edit:  Thanks!  I don't have auto linking behavior figured out.  Lazy on my part.  Fixed.




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June 21, 2026, 09:58:04 AM
Merited by DirtyKeyboard (1)

I don't think anyone mentioned this one about a different Chopper.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)

Worth 90 minutes if you've got it, imo.

Fixed the link for you.

And here's the IMDb page.

7.1/10 is a good rating. Should be worth watching. Thanks.
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