Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

The volume (measured in bitcoins) of the rise to $1200 didn't come close to the volume of the rise to $260 and the volume of the rise to $260 was much less than the volume during previous rallies. Why do we have to change now?

What does "100k coins per day USD volume" even mean?

Careless phrasing. XBT volume traded against USD. Better now?

And about the other point: I didn't say when we're at a new peak point that we'd have to see the same coin volume as during the previous peak. But at some point in between, I'd expect to see similar volume.

[ihaveaquestion]

Regarding volume, I tried to register for Bitstamp a few months ago, and it asked me for a scan of my passport and social security card.

That's not only a no, it's a "Fuck No".

That with the rumored difficulty of withdrawing, Bitstamp's KYC procedure has effectively killed off its volume.

That is not rumored, i personally know a guy who tried a withdrawal 2 months ago which has been cancelled for no reason after 1 week. He finally got his money after 2 weeks, but it was just a couple hundreds $. This story plus the questions they ask retroactively whereas they are not legit are enough for me to be sure i will not trade there. But dear daytraders keep waiting for the volume to be back in Bitstamp within this new framework.

[Peter R]

At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

The volume (measured in bitcoins) of the rise to $1200 didn't come close to the volume of the rise to $260 and the volume of the rise to $260 was much less than the volume during previous rallies. Why do we have to change now?

We don't. 

One could argue that Coase Theorem would suggest that trade volume measured in BTC should decrease as the distribution of bitcoins becomes more efficient (e.g., as time goes on or as adoption continues). 

What does "100k coins per day USD volume" even mean?

I think he just means the volume of those coins that directly trade against USD (e.g., ignoring the questionable volume on the Chinese exchanges). 

[Parazyd]

Ask in the dedicated Bitstamp thread or email them.

Are you experiencing trouble when withdrawing USD?

[ShroomsKit]

The 622 sell wall it´s getting eat very fast, from 750 to 590 in lest than half hour. In 4 o 5 hours we will pass the 622 wall.

That's not fast.

[BBmodBB]

What does "100k coins per day USD volume" even mean?

probably means that the float would change hands weekly

imo we may be looking at another 100 million USD buying in here...a major breakthrough is on the horizon!! =) weeee

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[MICRO]

There is no TA in the Bitcoin market. The prices are controlled by whales who pump and dump how and when they like. And also by the news. 2 things the traders can't control or predict. All they can do is run behind it and hope they get lucky.

And that's exactly what you see most traders here do.

TA in Bitcoin is more pure, moreso than Wall Street and stocks.  Even with Willie and the Chinese trading bots, there is way more manipulation on Wall Street than in Bitcoin which makes it easier to read.  If you use TA correctly, it's the study of human mentality, jubilation, capitulation and breaking points.  This is a perfect example:

Ahahaha.... Fcn hell . That is soo true and good example .

And its happening now. People that sold at lower prices now will buy in.

[Cassius]

I wonder what effect the HODL mentality will have on volume. Everyone seems to be expecting this clockwork, 9 month peak-to-peak, order-of-magnitude rally. That suggests a self-fulfilling target at which people are more likely to sell (why sell at $2000, which might otherwise seem perfectly reasonable, if you're pretty sure we'll see $3,000 before long?)

[JayJuanGee]

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

I had already made a prediction about that; however, I cannot remember what it was.

I think my prediction was in the $20k region, and in a couple of years, the thread pages will be 20K and the bitcoin prices will reach parity, let me guestimate, now, April or May 2016.

[shmadz]

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

would be interesting to watch...
We should start drawing a log chart with the BTC exchange rate and the number of posts in this thread and watch the "spread" shrinking week after week

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...



edit: Sorry about all the white space! (*white space removal free of charge

this is beautiful. Thank you.

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

Totally agree! and that day shall become known as an international holiday. Wall Observer Thread Parity Day! (*I'm sure someone can come up with a better name*)

But yeah, logarithmic functions are really mind blowing, for example:

computers were not even imagined 1000 years ago.
the internet was not even imagined 100 years ago.
a solution to the problem of the double-spend* issue was not even imagined 10 years ago...

I wonder what the next 1 year might bring?

*also -  quick thought I just had about that whole Byzantine Generals problem, which I have heard people say that bitcoin apparently solved. I'm not so sure about that.

I wonder if the computer science part of the problem was even addressed at all. I think what satoshi did was provide an incentive model as a workaround to the problem. By providing the generals enough incentive, you can effectively prevent them from acting maliciously, but this system still can not provably prevent malicious actors in the Byzantine Generals problem. at least as far as I understand it.

[derpinheimer]

And there is the 3th 522 wall, wonder how much this guy is going to sell

bitmaintech selling their btc to fiat

That explains the funny looking chart..

So the wall was eaten twice?

Might be the guy who kept placing and pulling a ~1700BTC wall.. if so, this is the last of their coins.

[oda.krell]

One could argue that Coase Theorem would suggest that trade volume measured in BTC should decrease as the distribution of bitcoins becomes more efficient (e.g., as time goes on or as adoption continues). 

Agreed. I'm not one of those who believe that USD volume must increase linearly with coin price. However, somewhere in between a new price level and the old one, we seem to briefly pick up to the old volume levels, during the last stages of a rally.

[JayJuanGee]

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

would be interesting to watch...
We should start drawing a log chart with the BTC exchange rate and the number of posts in this thread and watch the "spread" shrinking week after week

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...



edit: Sorry about all the white space!

I like this much better than my prediction; however, I believe  that it is more likely that the page to price parity will come later (like 6 months to 1 year later).  But I am NOT so skilled as to make my own graphic depiction.

[MICRO]

There is no TA in the Bitcoin market. The prices are controlled by whales who pump and dump how and when they like. And also by the news. 2 things the traders can't control or predict. All they can do is run behind it and hope they get lucky.

And that's exactly what you see most traders here do.

TA in Bitcoin is more pure, moreso than Wall Street and stocks.  Even with Willie and the Chinese trading bots, there is way more manipulation on Wall Street than in Bitcoin which makes it easier to read.  If you use TA correctly, it's the study of human mentality, jubilation, capitulation and breaking points.  This is a perfect example:

Ahahaha.... Fcn hell . That is soo true and good example .

And its happening now. People that sold at lower prices now will buy in.

A large portion of the posts I see on this forum (especially this sub-forum) seem to have the sole purpose of getting people to act according to that image. I think the smartest thing I've done since getting involved with Bitcoin (ignoring hindsight) is to simply avoid acting (or reacting) at all. Someone like MatTheCat would call me all sorts of interesting names for doing exactly that though!

U are probably right. In bitcoin we should probably ignore "clues" . I think bitcoin is hardest market to "read" .
I did not rly got into all this to much , i just cant see the patterns. I guess im not born for that . But im closely watching this thread and trying to learn.

[F-bernanke]

I wonder what effect the HODL mentality will have on volume.

Good point.

[Wolf Rainer]

The 622 sell wall it´s getting eat very fast, from 750 to 590 in lest than half hour. In 4 o 5 hours we will pass the 622 wall.

That's not fast.

It´s fast considering the volume we have now.

[zimmah]

Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

would be interesting to watch...
We should start drawing a log chart with the BTC exchange rate and the number of posts in this thread and watch the "spread" shrinking week after week

Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...



edit: Sorry about all the white space! (*white space removal free of charge

this is beautiful. Thank you.

What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!

Totally agree! and that day shall become known as an international holiday. Wall Observer Thread Parity Day! (*I'm sure someone can come up with a better name*)

But yeah, logarithmic functions are really mind blowing, for example:

computers were not even imagined 1000 years ago.
the internet was not even imagined 100 years ago.
a solution to the problem of the double-spend* issue was not even imagined 10 years ago...

I wonder what the next 1 year might bring?

*also -  quick thought I just had about that whole Byzantine Generals problem, which I have heard people say that bitcoin apparently solved. I'm not so sure about that.

I wonder if the computer science part of the problem was even addressed at all. I think what satoshi did was provide an incentive model as a workaround to the problem. By providing the generals enough incentive, you can effectively prevent them from acting maliciously, but this system still can not provably prevent malicious actors in the Byzantine Generals problem. at least as far as I understand it.

according to my calculations if we bubble in march 2015 the peak should be roughly around $30,000

The 622 sell wall it´s getting eat very fast, from 750 to 590 in lest than half hour. In 4 o 5 hours we will pass the 622 wall.

That's not fast.

It´s fast considering the volume we have now.

the volume in bitcoin may seem low, but the volume in USD is pretty high.

[ShroomsKit]

The 622 sell wall it´s getting eat very fast, from 750 to 590 in lest than half hour. In 4 o 5 hours we will pass the 622 wall.

That's not fast.

It´s fast considering the volume we have now.

Just make it relative so you keep acting as if you are correct.

[adamstgBit]

At some point between now and a new ATH we will need to see at least the volume of the peak days. Right now, we're at about a third to a fifth of that peak volume.

To be clear: that's not my way of saying that this rally is doomed. just that it seems way premature to even mention a new ATH before we're seeing similar volume spikes again as we did before, with upwards of 100k coins per day USD volume (and, yes, I'm okay with summing over stamp, finex and btc-e to have that count towards 100k)

The volume (measured in bitcoins) of the rise to $1200 didn't come close to the volume of the rise to $260 and the volume of the rise to $260 was much less than the volume during previous rallies. Why do we have to change now?

What does "100k coins per day USD volume" even mean?

Careless phrasing. XBT volume traded against USD. Better now?

And about the other point: I didn't say when we're at a new peak point that we'd have to see the same coin volume as during the previous peak. But at some point in between, I'd expect to see similar volume.

I have serious doubts about seeing that kind of volume ever again.

its not unreasonable to assume that anyone that steps on the market will acquire X amount of coins that will simply never touch the market ever again. people's BTC savings. the rest of their coins, coins they are willing to play the buy low sell high game with or coins they are willing to part with for wtv price, is the float.

and so as more poeple step onto the market the float reduces more and more

at this point I'd speculate to achieve 100K / day we're be talking about turning over the float weekly.

which is bonkers!

BTC volume will decrease every cycle.

think, 1 million poeple with an avg. of 12 coins hoard ( most will have less than this, but some will have way more... this is an avg.), wait no that makes no sense the float would be 0.