Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

http://www.btcpredictions.com/NewPredictor.php

We 720 soon?

That is a very interesting site.  I had NOT previously seen it. 

The data seems to be inconsistent between clicking on the beta predictor and the other 24 hour, 5 day and 20 day charts.... I mean the beta live version seems to be a bit more bullish than the non-live version.  In this regard, the live version predicts mid-$700s in the coming 24 hours; while the non-live versions predicts lower $700s in the coming 24 hours (though granted, the NON-live version seems to update on the hour, so seems to have NOT yet accounted for the price spike that occurred within the last hour).   


The developer, Kevin asserts that short -term predictions are likely more accurate than long-term predictions, so long as there are NO major news events affecting the prediction outcomes.  And, the algorithm seems to be based on historical performance, which we likely know is NOT necessarily a good predictor of future performance.

Further, his 20-day prediction seems to place BTC prices in the $300 to $400 territory, which seems very bearish and failing to take into account that BTC has been in a down trend for more than 6 months, which will more likely cause BTC prices to go up from here (our current price-point) rather than going down from here.  I could NOT really gather from the website how he came to what seems to be a hair-brained idea that BTC prices are going to plummet anywhere below $600 in the coming month.  Seems highly unlikely given the pent-up at-the-moment BTC situation.

NONETHELESS, I do like the concept of the site, if he is able to take into account more variables, then maybe the predictive aspect (especially longer term) may improve both long-term and short-term prediction(s).

historical performance has been a great predictor

I do NOT discount history completely, but in my thinking you gotta take history with a grain of salt b/c even though history may rhyme, it does NOT ever completely repeat b/c the variables of the present are going to be somewhat different... those differences need to be accounted for in order to arrive at more accurate predictive results - additionally, I tend to believe in free will... therefore human behavior always has some unpredictable aspect to it - even though it takes place within the realm of predictive possibilities.  Bitcoin markets contain many human actors.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

lol take this bears, suck it!

[ChrisML]

I am so lost right now.

Where is this going FFS.

[JayJuanGee]

It predicted this for my birthday:


I was sorely disappointed that it didn't come true  

Yes, that would have been nice - especially, if you could have predicted such a price change, accurately.

[Gingermod]

I am so lost right now.

Where is this going FFS.

Sideways

[adamstgBit]

you're all wrong.

CCMF

[MatTheCat]

Thanks Mat, I certainly didn't see it coming, though I did buy at that short-term bottom, still not willing to sell, still hoping we will blow through that 680 level at some point and then overextend and fall back to 680 as support, for a few weeks (days???   )


I'm sure that this market (all markets) are manipulated,

I'm still curious to see if open, transparent manipulation of bitcoin is any better or worse than the closed and "regulated" manipulation of other markets.

it's fun to watch it play out  

I'd recommend that if you can take a neutral, honest, and non-emotional approach to the idea of bitcoin in general, that you will do much better in the long term than betting on red.

Yep. The Bitcoin market is proving to be a microscopic representation of a real commodity market on fast forward, right down to the manipulation of the market through the trading 'tokens' that are neither backed by the commodity or currency (tradingbot Willy and who knows what else that remains hidden from public view).

I can't take a position in this shit-storm. To do so would only be gambling. I missed out on my buy-ins at the recent bottom by a few bucks, but would have traded those at around $640 anyhow, as I was banking on the correction hitting the 0.382 Fib retracement level at the very least.

If Bitcoin can hit right through $685, then I will take a position right after that as will no doubt many other traders. On Bitstamp, there is some 1600BTC standing in the way of spot and that occurring however. If Bitcoin fails to break through the high, then we are staring at an ultra volatile double top, on thin volume, with even thinner orders books. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but are double tops like this one (if that is what it proves to be) not symptomatic of blow-offs right at the very top of the market? Seen it at $1160, seen it at $710. Are we seeing it at $680?

[aminorex]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

[MoreFun]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

Yea, fonzie.

[cbeast]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the current price action to be reversion to the trendline?

I've been using the logarithmic chart and it's just continuing the same path it always has for 5 years.

[thezerg]

Breaking news!  Mathecat desperately trying to justify his bad decisions! Read all about it in wall observer.


PS: bye bye mat the train has left the station

[akujin]

Double top! 

[podyx]

MatTheCat I know you get some shittalk on here, including from myself so I wanna say it was a nice call to sell at 680

shame you didn't get in at 620 or under though

[bitcoinsrus]

(just making this meme for fun)

[JimboToronto]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

Fonzie and Mah?

And maybe RandomPedestrian?

[JimboToronto]

(just making this meme for fun)

LOL Post of the day.

 

[derpinheimer]

you're all wrong.

CCMF

+1

[hyphymikey]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[spooderman]

this feels just a liiiiittle too fast. We need to sit around at 6/700 for a month before I'm comfortable with any more gainz