Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nanobrain]

Didn't realise BTC now the currency du jour for blackmailers:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/02/cryptolocker-virus-nca-malware-protection

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[JayJuanGee]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

Me and I'm pretty much all-in (not a huge position - but the majority of my liquid assets).  

There is no way the log trend is going to hold.  I'm predicting a relatively slower growth rate (with wide variance - but definitely below 1000%/year).

If you frame the problem like that, then I am in the nrd525 camp.  I would think that growth rates in the 2X to 4X territory would be somewhat reasonable and sustainable... though I doubt that there is any kind of straight or exponential line b/c there could be events that cause greater variance, as you, nrd525, seem to be suggesting.

[ChrisML]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

[aminorex]

There is no way the log trend is going to hold.  I'm predicting a relatively slower growth rate (with wide variance - but definitely below 1000%/year).

But do you actually disagree?  I think everyone who does agree with the indicative value of the log trendline would agree with your statement that there is no way the log trend is going to hold, in the sense of holding indefinitely.  But, for example, it is difficult to imagine how sufficient bitcoin could be supplied to WBIT without the log trendline holding through at least early 2015.

I consider the log trendline strongly indicative, but I don't expect 1000% this year.  I quoted 648x7 recently in this thread, and if WBIT does not list this year I consider that the probable high.  Next year may exceed 1000% however.

[Gingermod]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

It means there's a lot of sell orders @ 700

[JayJuanGee]

Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world? 

yep, me

welcome back prof, if you can keep it clean enough and stick to facts and stuff, I think the thread will welcome you back with open arms 

Yeah, but he is already starting out with bullshit nonsense questions that do NOT make any sense in real application.... too exaggerated a scenario.  Surely, there are some people who are considerably fantastical, but one should NOT judge the whole bitcoin community as if we were all fantastical (or cult or religion, either)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChrisML]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

It means he sold off at the bottom and now he is butthurt  

eheh no but seriously, asks = sell orders, he is saying that sell orders up to 700 is stacking up.

So once we hit that 700,- people start selling like crazies?

That ought to be fun

[aminorex]

Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world? 

That could only happen if some 21 million other bitcoins were lost on accident.  Or the galactic council decided to admit the Earth.

[Gingermod]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

It means he sold off at the bottom and now he is butthurt  

eheh no but seriously, asks = sell orders, he is saying that sell orders up to 700 is stacking up.

So once we hit that 700,- people start selling like crazies?

That ought to be fun

No there are already orders placed @ 700

It is a wall.

[Gingermod]

Explanation

That is very intimidating

[BTCtrader71]

Quick poll:  Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?

The longer term your game, the more sure footed you will be.

Long term: log trendline is the most powerful model we've got. First, there is an explanation for why the model should work. Second, there are 5 years of data to support the model pretty darn well.

Medium term: cycles of boom-bust with a period of 200+ days. The data seems to fit this remarkably well. It's almost incredible to look at the charts and see how well spaced apart the peaks are. And it makes sense that there should be oscillations above and below the log trendline. But: why do the largest booms and busts come at that frequency? I don't know, and I don't know of any theories why it should be so, so that is a weakness of the medium term predictions.

Short term predictions: technical analysis. I've never studied TA but I've never seen a compelling reason to waste my time. There's just way too much voodoo and reading tea leaves.

So to sum up: Investment decisions should be based almost completely on long term thinking (log trendline model, supported by an understanding of the fundamentals). Some smaller decisions should perhaps be based on medium term thinking (like, we're below the trendline, and it's nearing time for the next boom). I don't think TA or any other short-term games should play a significant role at all in any investment decisions.

I can't take a position in this shit-storm. To do so would only be gambling.

Yes, it is gambling! That's exactly right!!

Matt: You've got the intelligence. You just need some patience!! (My apologies ahead of time for the unsolicited advice  )

[BBmodBB]

Didn't realise BTC now the currency du jour for blackmailers:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/02/cryptolocker-virus-nca-malware-protection

months old news ! where have you been under a rock? lmao 

[hyphymikey]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

It means he sold off at the bottom and now he is butthurt  

eheh no but seriously, asks = sell orders, he is saying that sell orders up to 700 is stacking up.

Definitely didn't sell at the bottom. I'm all bull here if you haven't noticed.

I suspect some whale will buy his own coins to to start the "choo choo effect". It wouldn't be the first time.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

What does this exactly mean? Ask depth and such..

onward movement towards 700? Or going lower?

It means he sold off at the bottom and now he is butthurt  

eheh no but seriously, asks = sell orders, he is saying that sell orders up to 700 is stacking up.

Definitely didn't sell at the bottom. I'm all bull here if you haven't noticed.

I suspect some whale will buy his own coins to to start the "choo choo effect". It wouldn't be the first time.

I know I know i was just kidding 

[JayJuanGee]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

Are you really of the opinion that those walls are for real?  Surely some of them may be for real, but they are easily pulled, as well.

[byronbb]

Ask depth to 700 is stacking up. The bigger walls the harder they fall.

Are you really of the opinion that those walls are for real?  Surely some of them may be for real, but they are easily pulled, as well.

There was a big wall at $650, pretty sure it got ate.

[BTCtrader71]

Another quick poll: is there anyone here at all who does not believe that, by 2027, 1 BTC will buy all the wealth in the world?  

That could only happen if some 21 million other bitcoins were lost on accident.  Or the galactic council decided to admit the Earth.

Actually, the log trendline model predicts that by 2027, one bitcoin will be so valuable, it will be able to buy all the rest of the bitcoins in the world several times over. But since each and every one can do that .... it will cause a massive black hole and we will get sucked into a brand new baby universe where the Laws of Physics will be encoded on the bitcoin blockchain. When that baby universe hits 14 billion years, it will happen again ... ad infinitum.

[TeeBone]

lol take this bears, suck it!

Real bears went long after 460 got taken out . That was key. Epic battle at 800 awaits, i might sell then.

[nanobrain]

Didn't realise BTC now the currency du jour for blackmailers:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/02/cryptolocker-virus-nca-malware-protection

months old news ! where have you been under a rock? lmao 

in a cave actually...seriously.