Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cech4204a]

It went above 600$ in less than 1 day, i guess it was just a minor crash. Maybe bitcoins will rise soon, there were some news on 24.7. if i'm right but now i can't find it again what it was about,  can somebody please let me know if that was the reason for crash?

Two circulating rumor/explanations:

-people selling BTC to participate the Ethereum IPO. Ethereum directly cashing out BTC to fiat
-the 24th of July self-prophecy about the 234 days bubble rubbing the wrong side

I don´t buy that teories, I think it´s more due a random dump or another unexpected/unknowable reason

Yeah those theories are far-fetched. They show, no one actually knows what or if some news caused the crash. Ethereum... are the coins still there? A bubble doesn't get called off if it's one day late. Also, it's not as if the price is declining at an increasing speed.

ok i see now, i'd be more into second option but it's not that obvoius to say that 234 days is a rule, but maybe it will be. it happend like 2 or 3 times so far, so that can't be a rule i guess. Can somebody provide some more info about that 234 days or maybe a graph or something?

[cech4204a]

Besides Bitcoin , you can also witness big drop in LTC price, i don't understand it neither. Anybody can explain LTC, i hope this is not off-topic, we are just monitoring the price of the two largest cryptos here.

[LMGTFY]

ok i see now, i'd be more into second option but it's not that obvoius to say that 234 days is a rule, but maybe it will be. it happend like 2 or 3 times so far, so that can't be a rule i guess. Can somebody provide some more info about that 234 days or maybe a graph or something?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zl - this is "all data" for MtGox (so ignore everything after the last peak - MtGox is no more. It has ceased to be...)

There are peaks (not necessarily All Time Highs) roughly every 6-9 months (November 2010, June 2011, January 2012, August 2012, April 2013, December 2013), which I guess someone felt was justification for the 234 days theory.

[minerpumpkin]

ok i see now, i'd be more into second option but it's not that obvoius to say that 234 days is a rule, but maybe it will be. it happend like 2 or 3 times so far, so that can't be a rule i guess. Can somebody provide some more info about that 234 days or maybe a graph or something?

But no one leaves the boat if the bubble is a day or two late... It's just some random drop we don't know the reason for. Simple as that. Deal with it, bitcoin world

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cech4204a]

ok i see now, i'd be more into second option but it's not that obvoius to say that 234 days is a rule, but maybe it will be. it happend like 2 or 3 times so far, so that can't be a rule i guess. Can somebody provide some more info about that 234 days or maybe a graph or something?

But no one leaves the boat if the bubble is a day or two late... It's just some random drop we don't know the reason for. Simple as that. Deal with it, bitcoin world

so if i understand that thing right it's time for bitcoin to jump in price? Why would it jump without any news or any other events triggering it to ''jump'' ?

[minerpumpkin]

ok i see now, i'd be more into second option but it's not that obvoius to say that 234 days is a rule, but maybe it will be. it happend like 2 or 3 times so far, so that can't be a rule i guess. Can somebody provide some more info about that 234 days or maybe a graph or something?

But no one leaves the boat if the bubble is a day or two late... It's just some random drop we don't know the reason for. Simple as that. Deal with it, bitcoin world

so if i understand that thing right it's time for bitcoin to jump in price? Why would it jump without any news or any other events triggering it to ''jump'' ?

Ha, well... Yeah, no one knows. Maybe someone got to know about bitcoin and decides to invest a million or two. If that person stretched the investment over week, we see a constant gain. Soon the TA indicators of all those traders jump to green (MACD, etc.) and thus they invest. We're then in a bull market and a positive-reinforcement-loop starts running. Media coverage spikes and there you got your bubble

[Nightowlace]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

[fichtn12345]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

lol 

[minerpumpkin]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

Yeah, because we're basically at a point where it could go either way and people are expecting it to go up. And yet it doesn't. And after some weeks of sideways movement that drop wasn't very pleasant.

[JimboToronto]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

My thoughts exactly.

Price goes up by 5% and it's all trains and moon rockets.

Price goes down by 5% and it's the apocalypse.

[findftp]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

Yeah, because we're basically at a point where it could go either way and people are expecting it to go up. And yet it doesn't. And after some weeks of sideways movement that drop wasn't very pleasant.

I predict it will happen at the 7777th page of this thread

[Yololintian]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

A lot of people are concerned because their fully leveraged long positions on bitfinex come closer to their margin calls each day. Most people expect a bubble to happen magically as well.

[cech4204a]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

I am monitoring BTC price for more than 6 months now every day and all i can say to it that we have never seen calmer days in bitcoins than in the past 3-4 weeks. And than bump happened so that is the reason why i am so interested what happened lately.

[minerpumpkin]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

A lot of people are concerned because their fully leveraged long positions on bitfinex come closer to their margin calls each day. Most people expect a bubble to happen magically as well.

But don't we have to burn a lot of longs to get the whole train going? I'd love to see some short squeezes, though 

[empowering]

Dave Edmunds - I hear you knockin' http://youtu.be/Ry2td7q5ZMc

[wasserman99]

OKCoin (mainland) seems to have detached from Huobi (it is ~12 CNY lower now, used to be only 203 CNY apart) and has very sparse order book.  Its volume has recovered (~43 kBTC yestertday Jul/24), but that is still at the low end of its former range, and very low for a "dumping day".  Is it on its way to closure?

Why would you suggest closure? Aren't they launching a separate USD-facing site with a separate order book? I think part of the detachment has to do with the fact that OKcoin seems to have been driving price action on the last couple moves. Huobi is dragging its feet, just as the western exchanges often do in relation to China. Volume was low across all exchanges on that dip.

[wasserman99]

Are we seriously sitting here debating why we dipped less than 3%. Man I remember when no one even noticed 3% in either direction. Now it's cause for great debate and speculation.

A lot of people are concerned because their fully leveraged long positions on bitfinex come closer to their margin calls each day. Most people expect a bubble to happen magically as well.

Fair enough on both counts. I was never convinced that we'd launch into a bubble based on the 2013 log trend -- especially because everyone expected it. I still stay long (unleveraged) though, as I still expect somewhat of a "fakeout" that fleshes out some of these (failed) bubble expectations. I see LOTS of accumulation in the $600s and very little has been redistributed. Either we start seeing big dumps (much bigger than the 200~ dumps and 200~ ask walls) in the relatively near future, or we are forming a base for a good run-up (do not read "bubble").

[JorgeStolfi]

OKCoin (mainland) seems to have detached from Huobi (it is ~12 CNY lower now, used to be only 203 CNY apart) and has very sparse order book.  Its volume has recovered (~43 kBTC yestertday Jul/24), but that is still at the low end of its former range, and very low for a "dumping day".  Is it on its way to closure?

Why would you suggest closure? Aren't they launching a separate USD-facing site with a separate order book?

Yes, I meant old OKCoin/Mainland (BTC x CNY) closing in favor of OKCoin/International (BTC x USD).

They only need to increase the volume on the latter by a factor of 1000 or so. 

(But I hope that they both fail, so that their owners will learn to pick less confusing names next time  )

[madian]

What if it breaks?   
What are the generally accepted long term channels at the moment?

It is generally accepted that you should never sell your bitcoins for anything less than a price, which is multiple times of the ATH of the prior boom.

- If Bitcoin is in its growth channel, and you panic sell in the bottom, it will cost you most of your bitcoins when you panic buy at 5-20x higher after realizing you were wrong. (If you panic buy threshold is lower, you end up always buying high and selling low, and diluting your holdings.)

- If it it destroyed, you have no way knowing it and being able to salvage the high point of your value. Salvaging a low point, is meaningless when the same outcome in fiat terms can be achieved by selling a few %-points more in the previous boom.

this community lives in dreams just because of people full of shit like you, of course you sold most of your Bitcoins to buy a "castle" and fill your account but you tell others to don't, what a dick head.

What the hell happened to you too? You used to have spot on predictions and gut feelings and I enjoyed reading most of your comments. Now you're just following risto to discredit him any occasion you get. I get it, you strongly dislike the man, and I'm not fond of him either but now you sound like the dark crypto offspring of Bitchick and Stolfi. One wants to save me from my sins, the other wants to save the world from itself. You wanna save people from... idiots with bitcoin bought castles?