Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

Or it'll ignore your "range" and continue trading sideways.  IMO, just because lines on charts cross at near arbitrary points does not mean that the price must necessarily do something at that crossing.

Or it'll do with a pretty high likelihood what it usually does once volatility goes down as much as it did now, and things get interesting again in a few days, maybe a week.

[1714999727]

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[1714999727]

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[1714999727]

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[iram3130]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

How you can say, we are goings to breakout, there is no clear signal of breakout.

[harlenadler]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

How you can say, we are goings to breakout, there is no clear signal of breakout.

Well the range has gotten quite contracted. Often this means a powerful move is coming. But which direction is unclear.

[hyphymikey]

3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.

Good. I'm still waiting for a 1W to be red.

Is that because you are short BTC/bearish or because you are looking for the MACD to uncross the otherway again, before a bump up?  

Going to buy with some newly arrived fiat and wait for the uncrossing.

[empowering]

Amusement

Fib retracement of ATH (MtGox)  

0%         1,242
23.6%    949.124
38.2%    767.938
50%    621.5
61.8%    475.062
76.4%    293.876
100%     1

Slap bang

Also just for fun.
extensions
261.8%    4,493.556
200%    3,726
161.8%    3,251.556
138.2%    2,958.444
100%    2,484
61.8%    2,009.556

[empowering]

3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.

Good. I'm still waiting for a 1W to be red.

Is that because you are short BTC/bearish or because you are looking for the MACD to uncross the otherway again, before a bump up?  

Going to buy with some newly arrived fiat and wait for the uncrossing.

So if we do get a cross and an uncrossing, do you think that the uncrossing will be in approx 25-35 weeks time? (give or take)  just outta interest, or do you see the 1 week MACD going on a total bender

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

monkey likes it for at least 12 hours, probably 24.  day tradurz, you know what to do.

[hyphymikey]

3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.

Good. I'm still waiting for a 1W to be red.

Is that because you are short BTC/bearish or because you are looking for the MACD to uncross the otherway again, before a bump up?  

Going to buy with some newly arrived fiat and wait for the uncrossing.

So if we do get a cross and an uncrossing, do you think that the uncrossing will be in approx 25-35 weeks time? (give or take)  just outta interest, or do you see the 1 week MACD going on a total bender

If you look back before the previous bubbles the 1W MACD went green for a week or two then flipped back red for at least one week. After that flip, it flopped back to green which initated a bubble. I just like to think of it as final capitulation. It will most likely be the last time I buy until the next bubble, however long that may be.

[JorgeStolfi]

vendors using Bitpay et al are essentially just accepting fiat and perhaphs an unknown % of BTC too (most companies would keep this % to themselves for obvious reasons)

Hm, what would be those reasons?  For tax evasion?  It would be quite risky, since Bitpay knows how much the vendor received, and even a traditional audit of his books by the IRS could easily reveal the evasion.

By the way, I am aware that this discussion is old and my observations have been made by others before.  However, there still seem to be people who expect the price to rise whenever such news come out, or claiming that the route USD-->BTC-->USD-->Goods saves money compared USD-->Goods.
[/quote]

[iram3130]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

How you can say, we are goings to breakout, there is no clear signal of breakout.

Well the range has gotten quite contracted. Often this means a powerful move is coming. But which direction is unclear.

I know powerful is coming but not clear it will upside, that is why I said we are not going to break upside, it's not clear at all.

[sidhujag]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

How you can say, we are goings to breakout, there is no clear signal of breakout.

Well the range has gotten quite contracted. Often this means a powerful move is coming. But which direction is unclear.

I know powerful is coming but not clear it will upside, that is why I said we are not going to break upside, it's not clear at all.

i think its down...

[DjPxH]

It looks like this narrowing range has to end in 30 hours.  Breakout heading up?

Or it'll ignore your "range" and continue trading sideways.  IMO, just because lines on charts cross at near arbitrary points does not mean that the price must necessarily do something at that crossing.

The Honey Badger is hungover and just decides to hibernate for a couple weeks or months more. But when it awakes it has to eat. And it likes to eat fresh FIAT, that's for sure!

[empowering]

vendors using Bitpay et al are essentially just accepting fiat and perhaphs an unknown % of BTC too (most companies would keep this % to themselves for obvious reasons)

Hm, what would be those reasons?  For tax evasion?  It would be quite risky, since Bitpay knows how much the vendor received, and even a traditional audit of his books by the IRS could easily reveal the evasion.

By the way, I am aware that this discussion is old and my observations have been made by others before.  However, there still seem to be people who expect the price to rise whenever such news come out, or claiming that the route USD-->BTC-->USD-->Goods saves money compared USD-->Goods.

I was thinking more prudence, privacy,security, shrewdness, speculation - than tax evasion - you slippery so and so you... if I was an investigator at the secretariat of federal revenue in your neck of the woods, never mind the doctors-  I would have a close eye on you  

[windjc]

To be honest, its beginning to be amazing that Bitcoin only has an $8 billion market cap given what is happening and getting ready to happen to legitimize it. And given the disruptive nature of the technology.

Imo, it is greatly under priced at the moment.

I would not have said this 1 year ago.

[BTCfan1]

wake me up when we break 640

[JorgeStolfi]

Some articles about the state of Chinese bitcoin exchanges, based on the Hong Kong conference last month:

Danny Lee, South China Morning Post, 2014-06-24
Bitcoin exchanges have struggled to survive on mainland
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1539601/bitcoin-firm-boss-says-ordinary-people-should-not-invest-digital

A dozen Chinese bitcoin exchanges have gone bankrupt or shut down in the past 12 months as they have struggled to be profitable or just disappeared. [... BTC-China's CEO Bobby ]  Lee, a former Walmart China executive, said on Monday "ordinary people should not buy bitcoin" and warned price volatility would continue for a decade as the currency tried to grow on a stable footing. [ ... ] Leonhard Weese, president of the newly launched Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong [ said businesses should be ] "prepared for the day when Hong Kong does bring in regulation" [ ... ]

Euronews, 2014-06-26
Bitcoin struggles in China, but boosters insist it has a bright future
http://www.euronews.com/2014/06/26/bitcoin-struggles-in-china-but-boosters-insist-it-has-a-bright-future/

Conor Brennan, Inline, 2014-06-25
Virtual currency prospers in Asia: Will China follow?
http://inlinepolicy.com/2014/virtual-currency-prospers-in-asia-will-china-follow/

Hong Kong has attracted a high level of virtual currency activity due to its relatively laissez-faire approach  to regulating the practice. It has also attracted business from mainland China where regulators have stifled the growth of virtual currencies. Although a region of the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong remains largely autonomous with regards to monetary regulation.  The current climate for virtual currencies in Hong Kong is healthy, however there are potential future risks, including increased oversight from mainland China or from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), due to virtual currencies causing financial instability. The city is now home to two large bitcoin exchanges, Bitfinex and ANXBTC, and numerous Bitcoin ATMs have launched in recent months.

[ Note:  Xu Nuojin is not "General Secretary" of the PBoC, but only Deputy Secretary of the Survey and Statistics Dept of the PBoC. ]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

3d MACD divergence turned red on all exchanges, for the first time since May.

Good. I'm still waiting for a 1W to be red.

Is that because you are short BTC/bearish or because you are looking for the MACD to uncross the otherway again, before a bump up?  

Going to buy with some newly arrived fiat and wait for the uncrossing.

So if we do get a cross and an uncrossing, do you think that the uncrossing will be in approx 25-35 weeks time? (give or take)  just outta interest, or do you see the 1 week MACD going on a total bender

If you look back before the previous bubbles the 1W MACD went green for a week or two then flipped back red for at least one week. After that flip, it flopped back to green which initated a bubble. I just like to think of it as final capitulation. It will most likely be the last time I buy until the next bubble, however long that may be.

So option B for bender.

[hdbuck]

Most importantly also the magical unicorn method for sending USD- I think this is the answer Jorge deserved for this simple question- hence that is why I gave that answer to start with.... y'know what they say "ask a stupid question, expect a stupid answer"

But, have you checked how expensive is to rent a magical unicorn these days?  

why even respond to such comment? you seem to have a lot of time to waste for an academic attention seeker. hum.

Think the word is banter... and I generally have time for everyone, that is just how I am... and I am not sure if you noticed... but my answer was hardly
serious.....

As for too much time to waste... maybe you are right there...  true for most who post  

(edit)  Sorry if your post was asking Jorge why he bothered to answer my statement- my bad if so... at a guess since I would be answering for Jorge  I would guess the answer would be banter, or he wanted to give a reciprocal stupid answer.

Also I must say it is a little bit of a pot kettle black situaiton for you to spend the time posting asking someone else why they wasted time posting in response to something someone else posted which you think is daft? surely that is just compounding the situation? sounds like you may have a fair bit of spare time also  (Banter)

All the best.

 

ahah yes, no i was just bantering our academic fellow here. sure i have plenty of time for this, not that i do it that often tho. just a once in a while teasing pike to keep fit and clear head