Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

It's over. 6 hours of lower highs and lower lows. And volume is picking up in China.

This. I changed my position to short at about 514 a few hours ago when we crossed trend lines... I am kicking myself for not doing it sooner. We have more to drop.

Also, buying pressure will be depressed because of Coinbase and leverage pressure will be depressed because the change of policy of Bitfinex soon to go into effect. In a nutshell... more blood, guys. Wish it wasn't so. It was nice while the party lasted.

P.S. -- Don't take my trading advice on face value. I am a Newbie. I've done ok the past few days, but am a couple percentage points down. I am a pretty smart fellar, but I am still learning the ropes a bit.

Trading bitcoin is as hard as you make it. (Not commenting on you personally, just laying this out there for anyone looking for advice.)

either buy and hold, -- or try to consistently sell high and buy low...

the former strategy has done quite well over the last three years, the latter one... has mixed results

The reality is, I am in trading mode because I am an impulsive character and I have too much time on my hands this summer. Definitely not a generally advisable plan although I've gotten much, much better at it than when I started.

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[edwardspitz]

It's over. 6 hours of lower highs and lower lows. And volume is picking up in China.

This. I changed my position to short at about 514 a few hours ago when we crossed trend lines... I am kicking myself for not doing it sooner. We have more to drop.

Also, buying pressure will be depressed because of Coinbase and leverage pressure will be depressed because the change of policy of Bitfinex soon to go into effect. In a nutshell... more blood, guys. Wish it wasn't so. It was nice while the party lasted.

P.S. -- Don't take my trading advice on face value. I am a Newbie. I've done ok the past few days, but am a couple percentage points down. I am a pretty smart fellar, but I am still learning the ropes a bit.

I'm glad I woke up early today so I had time to close my long in an orderly fashion. I got done in the nick of time and only managed to short 1 BTC. At $514, same as you I think we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming. I might short more if there is a little bounce.

Don't worry too much about loosing a little when you are starting out. When I began trading I started of with a small amount, made many mistakes and lost some $. I gradually got better and increased my investment. If we continue down I will most likely definitely increase my investment. It is simply too tempting  

[lyth0s]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

Here Coinbase explains this on their support pages:

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148738-what-price-will-i-receive-when-i-buy-or-sell-bitcoin-

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148739-what-price-will-i-receive-if-i-purchase-once-coinbase-reaches-its-daily-limit-

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

Newbie you just shorted so your hoping that the market remains bearish in order for yourself to come out the in the green. Coinbase exists to make money. If there is volume in both sells and buys equally on coinbase, coinbase ends up with extra bitcoins and extra USD. There has to be more buys than sells on coinbase in order for them to no longer have any BTC for sell.

[flynn]

@Adam and the poll ...

What means "short term" to you ? is that 15minutes or a day or a month ?
You definitely should specify IMO.

[Newbie1022]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

Here Coinbase explains this on their support pages:

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148738-what-price-will-i-receive-when-i-buy-or-sell-bitcoin-

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148739-what-price-will-i-receive-if-i-purchase-once-coinbase-reaches-its-daily-limit-

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

Newbie you just shorted so your hoping that the market remains bearish in order for yourself to come out the in the green. Coinbase exists to make money. If there is volume in both sells and buys equally on coinbase, coinbase ends up with extra bitcoins and extra USD. There has to be more buys than sells on coinbase in order for them to no longer have any BTC for sell.

I did just short. I actually shorted right after I saw that. I think it's terrible news. Interpret it as you will.

Also, you don't know that there are more buys than sells... there probably would have been, but guess what... nobody is going to be buying coins with them until they know what the Friday price is.

[Newbie1022]

It's over. 6 hours of lower highs and lower lows. And volume is picking up in China.

This. I changed my position to short at about 514 a few hours ago when we crossed trend lines... I am kicking myself for not doing it sooner. We have more to drop.

Also, buying pressure will be depressed because of Coinbase and leverage pressure will be depressed because the change of policy of Bitfinex soon to go into effect. In a nutshell... more blood, guys. Wish it wasn't so. It was nice while the party lasted.

P.S. -- Don't take my trading advice on face value. I am a Newbie. I've done ok the past few days, but am a couple percentage points down. I am a pretty smart fellar, but I am still learning the ropes a bit.

I'm glad I woke up early today so I had time to close my long in an orderly fashion. I got done in the nick of time and only managed to short 1 BTC. At $514, same as you I think we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern forming. I might short more if there is a little bounce.

Don't worry too much about loosing a little when you are starting out. When I began trading I started of with a small amount, made many mistakes and lost some $. I gradually got better and increased my investment. If we continue down I will most likely definitely increase my investment. It is simply too tempting  

Thanks man for the encouraging words. Cheers!

[lyth0s]

Unless they are doing something fishy like front running, there absolutely had to be more buys than sells. If everyone was selling coinbase would have an excess of coins and little fiat. If everyone is buying they have extra fiat and no coins. It's a simple exchange of goods and they take a cut in both directions. You're right, most people will not be buying from coinbase until they get an official market price again.

If you have demand and you cut of supply, what generally happens to price anyways?

And don't forget that some of the people that wanted to buy off coinbase will now be moving to other places such as their bitstamp account, localbitcoins, mycelium local trades etc etc.

And coinbase will now have to buy more coins off bitstamp...adding some buying pressure.

[shmadz]

@Adam and the poll ...

What means "short term" to you ? is that 15minutes or a day or a month ?
You definitely should specify IMO.

I can't speak for Adam but..

 short term is one day,
medium term is around 5-10 days,
and long term is anything more than one month.

[Newbie1022]

Unless they are doing something fishy like front running, there absolutely had to be more buys than sells. If everyone was selling coinbase would have an excess of coins and little fiat. If everyone is buying they have extra fiat and no coins. It's a simple exchange of goods and they take a cut in both directions. You're right, most people will not be buying from coinbase until they get an official market price again.

If you have demand and you cut of supply, what generally happens to price anyways?

And don't forget that some of the people that wanted to buy off coinbase will now be moving to other places such as their bitstamp account, localbitcoins, mycelium local trades etc etc.

And coinbase will now have to buy more coins off bitstamp...adding some buying pressure.

It's the common man vendor... they say a low price... and bought more... hence the price jumping to $530ish this morning. It already happened... presently it is unhappening. And, if they liked that price... they won't be able to get it through Coinbase because it won't be there any more on Friday.

Hence, short-term bearish.

Long-term it is good... means new blood is willing to buy in. I should have noted that.

[Newbie1022]

Bitfinex added $600,000 in longs in the past fifteen minutes... it is trying to turn the tide against Chinese pressure. I think they are fighting the wrong battle, but meh... coins are relatively cheap right now so they won't be any worse for the wear in a week or two.

[shmadz]

Unless they are doing something fishy like front running, there absolutely had to be more buys than sells. If everyone was selling coinbase would have an excess of coins and little fiat. If everyone is buying they have extra fiat and no coins. It's a simple exchange of goods and they take a cut in both directions. You're right, most people will not be buying from coinbase until they get an official market price again.

If you have demand and you cut of supply, what generally happens to price anyways?

And don't forget that some of the people that wanted to buy off coinbase will now be moving to other places such as their bitstamp account, localbitcoins, mycelium local trades etc etc.

And coinbase will now have to buy more coins off bitstamp...adding some buying pressure.

Nice analysis.

I think that if the price remains low, the liquidity will dry up, thus forcing a price spike - Just like the last time, and the time before that, and the time before that, and the time before...

[JorgeStolfi]

Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC.  If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.

Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon",  they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.

So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?

Have you seen the research on bankless ATM's?

I was referring to recent events about Coinbase and LBTC.

About the bankless ATMs, I have read the article, and pointed out one problem (fake bills being input by a customer and dispensed to another).

I think you spend too much time focusing on problems rather than solutions.

When I started college and became a trainee at the univeristy's computing center, my first task was to help other students find bugs in their programs.  I have been looking for bugs in programs almost every day, often many hours a day, for the last 46 years.  I cannot shake off the habit any more...

[dzyk]

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lyth0s]

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

Buy and hold, as is my usual advice. Selling when it's low just sounds silly (unless you predict a crash coming). Most people that play the game of trying to buy low and sell high tend to lose Bitcoin in the long term, because prices move quickly and without warning.

For the people that will now post that they've made a killing buying/selling at the best times, ask for some proof over a 6 month period...I'd doubt they can provide it. Admittedly I'm sure there are a very select few that have done well, but most don't.

[dzyk]

Explanation

is it proof? ha-ha  

[dzyk]

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

Buy and hold, as is my usual advice. Selling when it's low just sounds silly (unless you predict a crash coming). Most people that play the game of trying to buy low and sell high tend to lose Bitcoin in the long term, because prices move quickly and without warning.

now is the bottom?

[lyth0s]

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

Buy and hold, as is my usual advice. Selling when it's low just sounds silly (unless you predict a crash coming). Most people that play the game of trying to buy low and sell high tend to lose Bitcoin in the long term, because prices move quickly and without warning.

now is the bottom?

It would be silly of me to predict exactly where the bottom is, I follow the fundamentals and hope it will be much higher in a few years. Another thing to remember is that a major VC will start purchasing Bitcoins on September 1, 2014, bringing millions of more fresh dollars into Bitcoin.

[JorgeStolfi]

now is the bottom?

If I were forced to predict the bottom, under pain of having emacs removed from my computer, I would say around 450$.  That is what the price was on May/19, before the buying sprees that lifted it to 650$.  That guess assumes that the traders who did all that buying have changed their minds and are dumping all that they bought.

[YogoH]

 http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

What happend Jul 29, 2014 1:24:55 PM?   Does this mean most of those are owned by the same person? or a bug with the website?

edit: oh transactions in, my bad

edit 2:  But this is interesting graph. http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/percent-bitcoins-owned-by-richest   Will the top 100/500 continue to trend lower in percent of overall coins?  Could this be part of the downward pressure currently on bitcoin price?