Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[deadley]

what will happen with bitcoin. sell now or buy for 1 year holding ?

Everyone in chaos, what we will do now, price look very attractive.
But there is chance of more downside too, that is why people afraid to buy so much.

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[edwardspitz]

Stamp and Finex has stopped following China it seems 

[Norway]

Hi guys! This is my first post here. I have been reading this thread for some time now. I am not a day trader, so the stuff you write here is not relevant to me. But... I just have to read your shit anyway. I like the humor & action, he he. So it is relevant to me. Stupid me.... ;-)

That's why I selected this place to publish a simple mathematical model of how Bitcoin price can evolve over time. Don't kill me because the numbers in my formula are off. Just adjust & use. Kill me because the formula is wrong, he he ;-)

There are several reasons why your calculation may not be appropriate but as for getting into the Bitcoin industry, with your age and experience, you may be better off looking to try and start something yourself than looking for a job. I know it's what I'm aiming to do.

Hi Richy_T. I think my math is pretty relevant. What do you think is the main reason why it is not appropriate?

[edwardspitz]

now is the bottom?

If I were forced to predict the bottom, under pain of having emacs removed from my computer, I would say around 450$.  That is what the price was on May/19, before the buying sprees that lifted it to 650$.  That guess assumes that the traders who did all that buying have changed their minds and are dumping all that they bought.

Oh no the pain of using Vim  

[inca]

Awoken after time away to see a 5xx handle. A little cough upwards and the market will get the bears crying. Still very thin market.

Coinbase running out of coins to sell to customers? Obviously running out of coins is bullish. It implies internally they have more buying than selling, which at this price has exhausted their supply.

The fact 'traders'on here are arguing it is bearish is hilarious. Black is white, right?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Yololintian]

Awoken after time away to see a 5xx handle. A little cough upwards and the market will get the bears crying. Still very thin market.

Coinbase running out of coins to sell to customers? Obviously running out of coins is bullish. It implies internally they have more buying than selling, which at this price has exhausted their supply.

The fact 'traders'on here are arguing it is bearish is hilarious. Black is white, right?

Completely agree. Not sure how that kind of thing could be portrayed as bearish in any way. It shows there is strong demand at these prices.

[edwardspitz]

Indicator telling me to get out, but maybe China will break out of their wedge if they are encouraged?!



Edit 1:
Link: https://i.imgur.com/aFtY0vc.png

Edit 2:
Lol. Seems we still follow Chinas lead (and shorters at Bitfinex)  

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

No amount of countdowns or other magical thinking can "will" the price up. We need one thing and one thing only: buyers.

And the charts don't lie. There are none!

There are charts for that? WOW... I keep learning new things.  

[JayJuanGee]

*chirp* *chirp*

World changing technology guys, the main forum for it is so quiet you can hear a pin drop. Maybe that should tell you something...

NO... you have come here, to keep the lights on.  Welcome, newbie!!   

[JayJuanGee]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

IN the past when this had happened to me, I had noticed that if you keep clicking, you may get an opportunity to buy... however, one time I asked them for an explanation about this along with other related issues, and they explained that sometimes they have worse problems like this over the weekend... and this could signify that this issue may persist to some extent until monday... , which would really SUCK!!!!

[wachtwoord]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

Well that's quite obvious isn't it? When demand exceeds supply prices are poised to move up. Of course Coinbase is only one of the markets though.

[JayJuanGee]

Consider a place that sells bitcoins "off the shelf" and runs out of BTC.  If they expect the price to fall several percentage points "soon", it is better for them to turn clients away than to buy more BTC to replenish their stock.

Conversely, if they have a stock of BTC and expect the price to rise significantly "soon",  they will be tempted to tell their customers that their stock ran out.

So, if those reports of (BTC sellers running out of stock) are true, which explanation will be the true one?

Your speculation is crap... b/c you do NOT even know.  They run out of BTC, and they claim that they cannot get the BTC until they get more out of storage or whatever...... and this happens when there is an upturn in buying activity. 

Main problem that I see is that they should just maintain a higher volume of access to BTC... but apparently, they have already calculated that that particular business model does NOT work for them b/c they do NOT necessarily want to hold that much BTC.   

another possible solution would be for them to establish a mechanism in which they can purchase BTC.. directly off of an exchange in order to be able to sell it, and apparently they have NOT figured out an efficient, safe and/or profitable model for doing that - other wise they would do it.

[JayJuanGee]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

When I google for 'coinbase "provide exact price quotes right now"' I get this result from 2013-11-22:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6756307

and this from 2013-04-11:
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/9590/coinbase-com-buying-queue

So is the situation now like 2013-11-22 ?

Ah, another result is from 2014-07-14 ...
http://arbitragebot.com/coinbase-exceeded-their-own-buy-limit/

This cannot be bullish. Who would buy coins in the middle of an up and down market for the price several days in advance? Moreover, even if you are a bull and think the price will be higher in several days... who would pay that higher price in several days. If anything, I think this will depress buying for a few days.

You are correct... Coinbase has such a policy, but only a stupid person would employ such a policy, rather than manually attempting to figuring out when to buy between NOW and 5 days from NOW...    Coinbase will surely have more BTC available before 5 days.. and maybe even in a few hours... and I would surmise by the latest on Monday.

[oda.krell]

The reality is, I am in trading mode because I am an impulsive character and I have too much time on my hands this summer. Definitely not a generally advisable plan although I've gotten much, much better at it than when I started.

Hey Newbie1022. Don't listen to the hodl trolls, now is the time to trade. (actually, always is the time to trade, if you can spend some time on it and are willing to learn).

That said, here's some advice I wish someone would have given me: Historically, Bitcoin greatly favored holding coins (which is why so many in here believe in pure buy & hold). So a lot of us heard about Bitcoin, got excited, bought in -- and them some of us started trading. The advice I consider extremely useful: don't trade with your entire position from the beginning. You should rarely go "all in" anyway because of risk control, but even the size of your trading account that you consider for individual order size should only be a fraction of your entire Bitcoin account, imo.

Say, you start with 10% of your Bitcoin account. Had a profitable month? Double that percentage. Made a loss, cut it in half. You get the idea. It's the "probation" period for you as a trader, and it allows you to, as you say, learn the ropes without incurring major losses through bad decisions.

However, since the situation is looking a lot more bearish now than a month ago imo, the default position of keeping the rest of your Bitcoin account in coins is maybe not the best advice either. But whatever you decide in that respect, I suggest to not actively (i.e. daily, or weekly) trade with the entire account, unless it is small enough that it really doesn't matter.

[DubFX]

That doesn't make sense at all, why would be coinbase bought out? They must have atleast few k's of BTC stored, no?

[JayJuanGee]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

Here Coinbase explains this on their support pages:

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148738-what-price-will-i-receive-when-i-buy-or-sell-bitcoin-

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148739-what-price-will-i-receive-if-i-purchase-once-coinbase-reaches-its-daily-limit-

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

YES>>>>>> you are being hyperbolic, and you seem to be spreading FUD... maybe you are NOT doing this on purpose, but you are making much more out of the situation than the FACTS support.

The news is bullish.. b/c it means that a lot of Coinbase customers are buying and have bought more coins than Coinbase had prepared for sale.

The news is problematic, b/c we do NOT know how long Coinbase is going to remain without coins for sale..   Your stating an assumption that they are NOT going to have coins for four days b/c that is what the message states for the guarantee of coins being available is also misplaced.. b/c nothing in that message should cause you to assume that Coinbase will NOT have coins until the stated dates....  additionally, I have experienced that they usually get coins much more quickly.. probably even in less than a day.. but we may have to wait until Monday... possibly.   

So the news would be problematic if we have to wait until Monday or even later for BTC to be available through coinbase.

[hmmkay]

Two dutch BTC 'providers' also sold out. One is giving slight bonus on selling to them.

[JayJuanGee]

Whoa, Coinbase is sold out..

"Note! We've exceeded our normal buy limits for today. If you would still like to purchase you will receive the market price of bitcoin on Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:49AM EDT after your funds have arrived. read more

Due to higher than normal buy volumes, we are unable to provide exact price quotes right now.

Instead of pausing buys entirely, we decided to give people the option to purchase bitcoin at the market price in a few days. Once your USD funds arrive, we will exchange them to bitcoin at the market price at approximately Friday Aug 22, 2014 at 01:40AM EDT."

That's bullish right ?!?!?

Here Coinbase explains this on their support pages:

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148738-what-price-will-i-receive-when-i-buy-or-sell-bitcoin-

http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1148739-what-price-will-i-receive-if-i-purchase-once-coinbase-reaches-its-daily-limit-

Extremely, extremely, extremely run for the hills type of bearish news. First, there were a lot of buys because there was a lot of volume and volatility... there was action on both sides of the tape and with Coinbase as a middleman that leaves them dry (and anyways, that is historic, now... it's already priced in). Second, it means NOBODY will be buying from Coinbase all week -- a major purveyor of coins to the Average Joe. Why? Well, because the market is extremely volatile right now and you don't know where the hell the price will be (but assuming even in a worst case scenario there is a recovery by then that price would be HIGHER than it is today... you wouldn't do it).

It's God awful news. I don't know how the hell anybody could read it as positive news. I am certain I am being a bit hyperbolic, but yea... not good.

Newbie you just shorted so your hoping that the market remains bearish in order for yourself to come out the in the green. Coinbase exists to make money. If there is volume in both sells and buys equally on coinbase, coinbase ends up with extra bitcoins and extra USD. There has to be more buys than sells on coinbase in order for them to no longer have any BTC for sell.

I did just short. I actually shorted right after I saw that. I think it's terrible news. Interpret it as you will.

Also, you don't know that there are more buys than sells... there probably would have been, but guess what... nobody is going to be buying coins with them until they know what the Friday price is.

Newbie.. your response is pure bullshit and FUD spreading .. I just hope you are NOT coming to these ridiculous non fact based conclusions on purpose.