TalkingBit
Newbie
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Activity: 42
Merit: 0
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August 20, 2014, 06:42:55 AM |
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I had to take three months off when the train left without me, but I'm back, Baby. I still have the cash from when i foolishly dumped and now I'm ready to get back in the game asoon and this next crash makes it cheap enough. This many shorts get squeezed when it's over and it'll go to up like a rocket, but it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
Are you saying that because of this crash the next 'bubble' is going to be epic? He's saying that if people feel that things couldn't be worse (capitulation) and enough people betting against BTC (shorting) suddenly find themselves getting burned when the price suddenly spikes up, these are the perfect conditions for the next big rally. Historically the previous rallies have all begun like this. BFX's shorts just shot up to only 7.5kBTC or just about 3.5MM which is only a small portion compared to longs at 18MM. Wake me up when shorts get to 30k BTC |
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Probability
Newbie
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Activity: 8
Merit: 0
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August 20, 2014, 06:43:29 AM |
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I had to take three months off when the train left without me, but I'm back, Baby. I still have the cash from when i foolishly dumped and now I'm ready to get back in the game asoon and this next crash makes it cheap enough. This many shorts get squeezed when it's over and it'll go to up like a rocket, but it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
Are you saying that because of this crash the next 'bubble' is going to be epic? He's saying that if people feel that things couldn't be worse (capitulation) and enough people betting against BTC (shorting) suddenly find themselves getting burned when the price suddenly spikes up, these are the perfect conditions for the next big rally. Historically the previous rallies have all begun like this. Yeah, that makes sense to me. Does this make sense as well: there's a long squeeze going on and it might help a future rally (in addition to the short squeeze) because it leaves a lot of deep pocketed btc-believers on the sidelines, some with significant losses? (recent margin calls on btc-e could be an example of this?) |
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Newbie1022
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August 20, 2014, 06:45:22 AM |
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I have a fleeting suspicion that the next margin that will be hunted will be LTCs rather than BTCs... I'd imagine more than a few people went long on LTC because they figured its short-term bounce back would be a greater percentage than BTC.
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Newbie1022
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August 20, 2014, 06:47:24 AM |
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I had to take three months off when the train left without me, but I'm back, Baby. I still have the cash from when i foolishly dumped and now I'm ready to get back in the game asoon and this next crash makes it cheap enough. This many shorts get squeezed when it's over and it'll go to up like a rocket, but it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
Are you saying that because of this crash the next 'bubble' is going to be epic? He's saying that if people feel that things couldn't be worse (capitulation) and enough people betting against BTC (shorting) suddenly find themselves getting burned when the price suddenly spikes up, these are the perfect conditions for the next big rally. Historically the previous rallies have all begun like this. BFX's shorts just shot up to only 7.5kBTC or just about 3.5MM which is only a small portion compared to longs at 18MM. Wake me up when shorts get to 30k BTC A short is a much harder bet with incalculable loss risk and we are already fairly low... so I'd say 7.5k BTCs means a pretty strong belief... it's certainly not bullish. |
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Riddikulo
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August 20, 2014, 06:50:59 AM |
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This is killing me!
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Newbie1022
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August 20, 2014, 06:52:58 AM |
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This is killing me!
Yes. This week has seriously been unhealthy. Ice cream, popcorn, and not sleeping. Before that I had a great exercise routine going. |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2226
Merit: 1779
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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August 20, 2014, 06:59:33 AM |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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August 20, 2014, 07:04:04 AM |
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Someone is definatelly dumping A LOT of coins. But I don't think it's manipulation now. Just someone with a lot of coins to dump, look at the 1k ask wall at 2940 on HooBoy and he dumped few k to bring it down accross major exchanges. If someone is willing to give up coins at these prices i'll gladly take as many as i can  Looks like the overall sentiment is that bitcoin is undervalued and market wants to go up. BFX longs lost 12MM or 30% (i think BFX did an amazing job controlling that avalanch), and shorts are up by like 2k BTC. All indicators are pointing up, lets see how many coins Mr Dump has, if it's Gox's coins this might take a while how about now? |
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ErisDiscordia
Legendary
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Activity: 1133
Merit: 1163
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
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August 20, 2014, 07:06:47 AM |
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I had to take three months off when the train left without me, but I'm back, Baby. I still have the cash from when i foolishly dumped and now I'm ready to get back in the game asoon and this next crash makes it cheap enough. This many shorts get squeezed when it's over and it'll go to up like a rocket, but it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
welcome back. Together with Proudhon and Rampion I've now spotted three of my favorite posters in the last two days. Good times, don't even care about the price drops now  |
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Hunyadi
Legendary
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Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
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August 20, 2014, 07:08:11 AM |
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This is killing me!
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jeezy
Legendary
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Activity: 1237
Merit: 1010
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August 20, 2014, 07:15:14 AM |
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Someone is definatelly dumping A LOT of coins. But I don't think it's manipulation now. Just someone with a lot of coins to dump, look at the 1k ask wall at 2940 on HooBoy and he dumped few k to bring it down accross major exchanges. If someone is willing to give up coins at these prices i'll gladly take as many as i can Looks like the overall sentiment is that bitcoin is undervalued and market wants to go up. BFX longs lost 12MM or 30% (i think BFX did an amazing job controlling that avalanch), and shorts are up by like 2k BTC. All indicators are pointing up, lets see how many coins Mr Dump has, if it's Gox's coins this might take a while There are still a lot of stolen/auctioned coins around and the long stall could be a motivator for one or more of those people to dump some % of their stash. My guess is that it will go down more probably around 350-400 and then go up slowly first, then gaining more speed up quickly towards new years eve. |
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lay785
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August 20, 2014, 07:35:54 AM |
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This is killing me!
Yes. This week has seriously been unhealthy. Ice cream, popcorn, and not sleeping. Before that I had a great exercise routine going. same except ive been doing arbitrage like mad. |
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Dotto
Legendary
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Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
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August 20, 2014, 07:42:03 AM |
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I have a fleeting suspicion that the next margin that will be hunted will be LTCs rather than BTCs... I'd imagine more than a few people went long on LTC because they figured its short-term bounce back would be a greater percentage than BTC.
Im very skeptical with LTC, short and long term. Your theory makes sense |
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billyjoeallen
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
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August 20, 2014, 07:44:52 AM |
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I had to take three months off when the train left without me, but I'm back, Baby. I still have the cash from when i foolishly dumped and now I'm ready to get back in the game asoon and this next crash makes it cheap enough. This many shorts get squeezed when it's over and it'll go to up like a rocket, but it's likely to get worse before it gets better.
Did you really take 3 months off, or were you a closet chart watcher? I once took a whole week off... Terrifying. I don't recommend it. I was watching to see if I was going to have a chance to come back in. I wish my account was at BTC-e so I'd be loaded back up already. I'll repeat what I said three month's ago: the best way to know the bear market is over is with a retest of the ~$340 low on higher volume. Volume is the key. |
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lay785
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August 20, 2014, 07:45:35 AM |
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why is bitfinex trading at btce price and not stamps?
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Wandererfromthenorth
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August 20, 2014, 07:52:18 AM |
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Told ya we were going down  Bottom will be at $400-$390 in a few days. THEN you'll have to buy |
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molecular
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
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August 20, 2014, 07:57:25 AM |
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Does anyone have an explanation on who keeps lending fresh BTC on bitfinex for those shorts?
An interest rate of 0.0055 %/day (2% annual) doesn't seem worth the risk to me.
after BTC swaps shot to 8k BTC, an hour ago there was only miniscule amount available. Now there's again ~ 1000 BTC available to borrow at flash rate of 0.0055 %/day. wtf. who in his right mind is doing this???
wild theory: maybe those are just finexBTC being lent?
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2226
Merit: 1779
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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August 20, 2014, 07:59:35 AM |
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billyjoeallen
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
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August 20, 2014, 07:59:43 AM |
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why is bitfinex trading at btce price and not stamps?
It's trading between the two. I suspect BTC-e which is usually a bit lower had a few short term profit takers when their deep orders got filled in the crash to $309. Lucky bastards. Stamp is what I consider the true spot price. the others, even though I have an account and bitfinex, are weighted less. It pisses me off that we never got any resolution in China. Now I'm always going to be looking for a goxxing from hooboy. |
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rezurect
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August 20, 2014, 08:06:32 AM |
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Damn, squeezed out my long, which has been open for months.I was in @ around 430.
309@btc-e.
Out of position. cant get back in now.
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