Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!

Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?

I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate

It's all stop losses, it would require a lot more upside to actually trigger the majority of shorts to get margin called.

educated guess = 640+  

I am just guessing too; however, that sounds like too much... it is like 133% of $480

price is set to roughly double once its found it footing, just like from 350 to 680.

this market is insane, because if we are right, if the transformation of money from physical representation of information to pure information holds true, and happens her e now

well fuck man we are rich beyond belief if only we can HODL true to our beliefs !

[1714646636]

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[1714646636]

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[JayJuanGee]

lets see a nice short liquidation cascade!

Can anyone make an educated guess at what point the shorts could get liquidated?

I'd think it would be alot higher than this, but I have no idea how to properly calculate

It's all stop losses, it would require a lot more upside to actually trigger the majority of shorts to get margin called.

And anyone with the brain of a cockroach would close before a margin call is triggered.  A margin call means your collateral is gone.

The shorts are waiting for a correction down to minimize losses.  Another 10-20 dollars and they might give up.

In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?

[Raystonn]

If the $14 million of margin longs that disappeared from bfx were to panic buy at market right now, price would reach $1800.  So that's our very high ceiling without any new fiat on the exchanges.

[adamstgBit]

[grappa_barricata]

In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?

When the collateral value drop lower than the borrowed asset value, plus 15%.
The thing is complicated from the fact that one can use bitcoin as collateral, so that as the price change the collateral value change too.

Let's do math

John goes short at 450$. His collateral is 450$ (let's assume, to simplify). He short 3 BTC (1350$).
The price goes to 575$. Now to close his position he need to buy 3 BTC (1725$). John's position is in red of 375$.
When his P/L reach -382.5$, poor John will be margin-called. That will happen, in this case, at price 577.5$.

[Dotto]

Normally in the bullish side, but unless we wild and anarchycally destroy 530, it smells like a bulltrap

[adamstgBit]

In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?

When the collateral value drop lower than the borrowed asset value, plus 15%.
The thing is complicated from the fact that one can use bitcoin as collateral, so that as the price change the collateral value change too.

Let's do math

John goes short at 450$. His collateral is 450$ (let's assume, to simplify). He short 3 BTC (1350$).
The price goes to 575$. Now to close his position he need to buy 3 BTC (1725$). John's position is in red of 375$.
When his P/L reach -382.5$, poor John will be margin-called. That will happen, in this case, at price 577.5$.

most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.

[grappa_barricata]

most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.

You mean this one?

[adamstgBit]

Normally in the bullish side, but unless we wild and anarchycally destroy 530, it smells like a bulltrap

i feel it too!

i also have an equally loud voice inside me telling me to resist trader logic for next 48 hours.

hence my confusion

[adamstgBit]

most shorts are older that today no?
most of the squeezie ( unless they get scared and one by one cut losses now ) will happen above 600.
doesn't feel like an easy price target... but no one saw that alpaca coming either.

You mean this one?

out of fucking no where

but in retrospect, if i was gana do a move like that i'd wait for poeple to be crying in pain for days, too.

also i'm thinking this could a herd of alpacas... as always, bears are doomed.

[exocytosis]

I am relatively bullish on Bitcoin mid-term. I believe we will be above 530 a week from now. 700 or more is a possibility by December 31, barring any huge Black Swan events.

I suspect we might enter 2015 somewhat on the plus side of $600.
$800 or more can be reached by the end of 2015.

But a lot of unforeseen events might drive price lower.

[hyphymikey]

Anybody got any coal to fuel this choo choo?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BTCtrader71]

In other words, this is NOT a set percentage, but instead based on how much leverage you used....? The lower the leverage ratio, the longer it will be allowed to run before being forced to close; however, if an trader uses a high leverage ratio, then it will be forced to close much sooner (b/c the collateral gets eaten up more quickly)?

When the collateral value drop lower than the borrowed asset value, plus 15%.
The thing is complicated from the fact that one can use bitcoin as collateral, so that as the price change the collateral value change too.

Let's do math

John goes short at 450$. His collateral is 450$ (let's assume, to simplify). He short 3 BTC (1350$).
The price goes to 575$. Now to close his position he need to buy 3 BTC (1725$). John's position is in red of 375$.
When his P/L reach -382.5$, poor John will be margin-called. That will happen, in this case, at price 577.5$.

Another thing John can do is to close his position incrementally as the price approaches $575. For example, his plan might be that if the price hits $545, he'll close 1 BTC. That means he would buy 1 BTC at $545 to pay off part of his debt. This will have the effect of raising the margin-call price. This is called stop-loss, correct? (I am not a trader and learning this stuff on the fly)

[chopstick]

Calling it now.

>10K by march 2015  

[grappa_barricata]

Another thing John can do is to close his position incrementally as the price approaches $575. For example, his plan might be that if the price hits $545, he'll close 1 BTC. That means he would buy 1 BTC at $545 to pay off part of his debt. This will have the effect of raising the margin-call price. This is called stop-loss, correct? (I am not a trader and learning this stuff on the fly)

You are right, and it will be wise for John.

Well, we may call this a strategy, that our mutual friend John employ. A stop order can be a tool he can use to implement it.

Do not worry, i knew nothing of these things just a couple years ago. They seems complex but are not

A stop order (they can be either buy or sell, i will describe the former now, just invert buy/sell in the explanation) at price X for N bitcoin work this way:

Code:

- when price became greater than X, place a market order for N bitcoin

Very simple indeed 

[hmmmstrange]

Calling it now.

>10K by march 2015  

Might as well bump up the "we are the new wealthy elite" thread.

[JayJuanGee]

how come every time I hear Hodlers here yelling " I am buying", it means even you have an infinite supply of cash to buy all the time, or you are selling and getting fucked up all the time, in other words you are a member of buy high and sell low.

B/c you are attempting to extrapolate some kind of conspiratorial conclusion that does NOT exist.  In other words, you are residing in a sort of fantasy world in which you make whatever conclusions are to your liking.  WAKE UP.

    

[InstantBitcoin]

time to buy ~ $700 close !!!   

[JayJuanGee]

buying back in~!


clearly i've lost my marbles

You weren't all in before?

I sold just b4. keep up

* having issues realizing market might actually go to the moon, normalcy bias kicking full force *

Sometimes I have difficulties believing that you, Adam, would engage in such risky business with your coins - especially, during these uncertain times.... and surely BTC prices are far below the trend line.  Additionally, even if you did sell some of your BTC; hopefully, you are NOT risking any more than 20% of your stash, maximum?

Sorry to lecture you Adam.. but there are too many uncertainties to be taking such gambles... b/c that's what these downward whale manipulators want you (and a few others) to do, so that they can get a few more coins.