Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[derpinheimer]

Keep posting? I've only posted it once, and I don't intend to do it again.

How did the 30k guy "destroy TA" when his entire asks were bought up, by MULTIPLE ENTITIES (=organic)? It's the complete opposite, he invigorated this market.

You aren't the first to post that sort of chart TA.

A 38k single entity sell -> many entities is very bad for price. In a traditional sense, capitulation is small fish selling to each other and then panic buying their own coins back when any sign of reversal pops up. That doesn't happen when a whale dumps.

The chart looks the same, but the actions are not. People are buying since it looks like a reversal, but isn't.

[Patel]

I feel until DPR Seized Coins (144k) get auctioned, the price will remain low. Could be a tactic to buy these coins cheaply. We are in a uncertainty period right now.

That, and the ETF is really a dumping of around 200k coins (give or take), thats about 350k bitcoins that need to be purchased. The only good thing about the ETF is that it allows money already in Nasdaq to be put into Bitcoin. The bad thing about the ETF is, that it allows banks and others who print their own money, to consistently open shorts on the ETF, artificially keeping the price down.

[NotLambchop]

...30k guy ... invigorated this market.

Dumping 30k @ YTD low:  Invigorating!

I don't think I like this vigor thing...

[N12]

A 38k single entity sell -> many entities is very bad for price. In a traditional sense, capitulation is small fish selling to each other and then panic buying their own coins back when any sign of reversal pops up. That doesn't happen when a whale dumps.

The chart looks the same, but the actions are not. People are buying since it looks like a reversal, but isn't.

Now I understand what you're getting at. Makes sense, you could certainly interpret it that way, however:

1) We had 1 day of 60k and the next with 70k daily BTC volume on Bitstamp. 30k is less than 25% of 130k, so even if you go by your argument, it is valid.
2) After the 30k ask popped up @300, people did panic sell down to 275.
3) For a context, it also has to be considered that we had a downtrend with relatively bearish sentiment prior to the culmination of Oct 5.

[N12]

...30k guy ... invigorated this market.

Dumping 30k @ YTD low:  Invigorating!

I don't think I like this vigor thing...

It may sound funny, but I'm serious: Look at the volume prior to October 5 and ever since July, and also look at the volatility levels, and you'll see what I mean. It was definitely a moment of invigoration if you consider how lifeless things have been.

[adamstgBit]

what makes no sense is there is 0 reason to move the price down, at this point, the news has been good, china and gox are behind us, TAX has been paid, charts are now looking up. so why move the price down? WHY?! why not sell it off slowly? its not like the market is going anywhere. this kind of question has puzzled me for years! market price manipulation for the purpose of accumulating lower & plain old stupidity is my only explanation.  but how long will that work one point the rubber band will span! i believe the rubber band has spanned ( 275 -> 418 ) and now this "sell to buy back lower" evil scheme shit is going to be a whole lot harder!

[adamstgBit]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

[inca]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

The last six months is your answer. Price leads sentiment. That's it. News is incorporated into the narrative to explain away the price action.

[NotLambchop]

...30k guy ... invigorated this market.

Dumping 30k @ YTD low:  Invigorating!

I don't think I like this vigor thing...

It may sound funny, but I'm serious: Look at the volume prior to October 5 and ever since July, and also look at the volatility levels, and you'll see what I mean. It was definitely a moment of invigoration if you consider how lifeless things have been.

I do see what you mean, from the market/trading perspective this was great.  Not sure how it played out for hodlers, tho.

[bahamapascal]

When I have 100 $ on bitfinex and want to borrow money to go long, what is the maximum amount I can borrow with my 100$?
Is it 300$, as the max levarege is 1:3 ?

Thanks!

[NotLambchop]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

Russia is planning to criminalize Bitcoin...  Not simply banning financial institutions from interacting with Bitcoin businesses like China, but making anything Bitcoin-related a criminal offense.
Russia Proposes Monetary Penalties for Bitcoin Use and Promotion

[adamstgBit]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

The last six months is your answer. Price leads sentiment. That's it. News is incorporated into the narrative to explain away the price action.

i'm saying some things give BTC more utility, and maybe the market is more concerned with pricing in the crowd of profit takers waiting to take their profit and leave, in the moment, but in the end, in the long run, these  "newses" really do matter way more than what the charts say or even what the current market participants do. period the end.

[inca]

Russia FUD

Why do you keep spamming that over the forum?

[podyx]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

I think we still are in the speculation phase and I believe people just think either bitcoin is gonna suceed or it's not, no matter the news.

This global technological phenomenon is simply larger then any news out there. Price will increase on good news after success. (the tipping point which I would say is around $10k)

[adamstgBit]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

Russia is planning to criminalize Bitcoin...  Not simply banning financial institutions from interacting with Bitcoin businesses like China, but making anything Bitcoin-related a criminal offense.
Russia Proposes Monetary Penalties for Bitcoin Use and Promotion

who cares no one gives a shit about the news anyway.

  

[inca]

News don't matter for shit, how can you still not get that after this many years?

thats BULLSHIT!

news makes 0 difference in the short term , all it dose if give an excuse to push buttons or to hold off pushing buttons. i agree

but you can't tell me dell accepting bitcoin, court case's recognizing bitcoin as money, and the likes, have no effect on the overall value of these coins.

The last six months is your answer. Price leads sentiment. That's it. News is incorporated into the narrative to explain away the price action.

i'm saying some things give BTC more utility, and maybe the market is more concerned with pricing in the crowd of profit takers waiting to take profit and leave, in the moment, but in the end, in the long run, these  "newses" really do matter way more than what the charts say or even what the current market participants do. period the end.

I agree with you there. But what you are saying isn't popular here in chart land. You are saying the news is driven by changes in the fundamentals, which recently (despite pork chops assertions) are near universally positive!

[pinky]

When I have 100 $ on bitfinex and want to borrow money to go long, what is the maximum amount I can borrow with my 100$?
Is it 300$, as the max levarege is 1:3 ?

Thanks!

Yes.

[NotLambchop]

Russia FUD

Why do you keep spamming that over the forum?

That's a Coindesk article.  Coindesk is a pro-Bitcoin publication, AFAIK.  Russia Proposes Monetary Penalties for Bitcoin Use and Promotion
If you think Bitcoin's leading news source is spreading FUD, I suggest you invest in better tinfoil.

[derpinheimer]

A 38k single entity sell -> many entities is very bad for price. In a traditional sense, capitulation is small fish selling to each other and then panic buying their own coins back when any sign of reversal pops up. That doesn't happen when a whale dumps.

The chart looks the same, but the actions are not. People are buying since it looks like a reversal, but isn't.

Now I understand what you're getting at. Makes sense, you could certainly interpret it that way, however:

1) We had 1 day of 60k and the next with 70k daily BTC volume on Bitstamp. 30k is less than 25% of 130k, so even if you go by your argument, it is valid.
2) After the 30k ask popped up @300, people did panic sell down to 275.
3) For a context, it also has to be considered that we had a downtrend with relatively bearish sentiment prior to the culmination of Oct 5.

It's a very odd situation all around. I don't doubt this is a short term reversal, but I expect new lows within 6mo. Unlike a reversal at, say, $50 in April where the selling pressure was never going to culminate to that level again. (At least, not yet.)

Another thing: the market was very oversold at <400. A bounce was certain at some point. I think I had been calling for a bounce since $400. It never came until $275.

So I'm still sticking to >450, then rollercoaster, then <300. Sometime within 9mo, <200. But if you don't mind mid term trades then this seems like asafe time to buy.