Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[noobtrader]

USD is up against almost all other currencies, not only crypto, I find this strange.

usd is finding new oil boom by new methods and technology, nothing is strange about it.

[JorgeStolfi]

So, is it theoretically possible to reconstruct those lost wallets and to get ahold of coins?

Not that we know of. Even if all the network's computing power could be devoted to the task, it would take bazillion years to find the private key of one address by trial and error.

In theory, there may exist some magic algorithm that allows one to do that in a viable amount of time.  That would not only break bitcoin but also a lot of e-commerce and e-banking systems.  But no one has published such an algorithm, and apparently no one knows how to even start looking for it.  

[ ... ] I can not imagine many holding-water hypotheses for explaining the craziness of mining race. An attempt to crack the wallets (and I assume that for doing the trick a large pool would be needed too) would explain the completely irrational hash-rate increase.
[/quote]

The bitcoin protocol gives about 3600 BTC (about 1.2 million USD) every day to the miners, no matter what.  The fraction that one miner gets from that bonanza is the same as the fraction of the total hash power than he controls.  Therefore, each miner who is making profit will want to have as much hashing power as he can, to maximize his profits.  That is the reason for the mining race.

[Silverspoon]

I'm happy with my +2297.74% in two years.

But you've only joined this forum in June and were buying in the 600s?  Can you explain how you calculate your profits?

I'm doing fine, don't care about me.

+2297.74% in two years is great by anyone's standards, I'm just trying to wrap my head around how such numbers can be achieved when you clearly have also bought in the 600 range.
Or did you actually stop buying once bitcoin price broke $13?
I want to learn from you, dakota neat, help me.

[Bagatell]

Or did you actually stop buying once bitcoin price broke $13?

Even if dakota didn't, others probably did.

[aliro38]

What if I told you that the real monetary inflation for BTC is actually even higher than most people think?
That's because a lot of BTCs from the early days are totally lost (so nobody owns the private keys anymore, it's like they never existed).


2 million BTCs (minimum) are very probably lost:

http://onbitcoin.com/2013/12/07/bitcoin-spoilage-2-million-bitcoin-likely-lost-old-hard-drives/




The supply of BTC in circulation is actually smaller than believed, that means that the inflation is actually higher.

Hmmm....
So, is it theoretically possible to reconstruct those lost wallets and to get ahold of coins?
Sorry if it sounds so noob-ish (my excuse is I am a noob by all applicable criteria  ) but I can not imagine many holding-water hypotheses for explaining the craziness of mining race. An attempt to crack the wallets (and I assume that for doing the trick a large pool would be needed too) would explain the completely irrational hash-rate increase.
Also, power companies selling their electricity at 3-5x (for now; it used to be a lot higher, maybe 10-15x) market price would explain the hash-rate increase.
And also, another explanation would be the old 'ponzi' etc etc. but I'm not buying that kind.

Please, I'm really interested to get a knowledgeable answer and I'll try to do my best following any references, if provided. I'm asking because for a long time the hashrate is having wild variations, often over 50% in 12-36h and it seems to me that it can not be pure coincidence or statistical variance but rather that someone big is maybe trying something important...
Many thanks!

if you want to reconstruct wallet then you should go for the rich list
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

not some unknown smallish lost coin and even if its possible. 

I know that, many thanks! But those are, on one hand, heavily protected wallets and, on the other hand, imagine the consequences if you were to steal one...
I'm asking if it's possible to divert from time to time some hashrate from a large mining pool and to silently crack old lost wallets (very easy passwords, most probably) and so to get 50 easy btc at a time. Clean and repeat, at the expense of pool members... And those would come as free 'bonus' to the actual reward of 25btc..
Have a look at hashrate variation here: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png
Where does it go approx. 200Th/s?!! Who does it in such a short time and most important why? (It's not so easy to underclock/overclock a mining farm neither to power it on and off) And why does it seem to repeat so frequently and it looks so much like a pattern?!

[findftp]

Holding is a good strategy.

Strategy for what?

Profit.

Never saw holding doubling my coins.

You sold your coins. Now you plan to buy back and turned bear troll. You really think you can influence the price by posting nonsene all day in a forum, don't you?

 No I try to warn poeple for what is coming.
I don't make the market nor I can influence it because I'm far from being a whale.
And if you don't like my "nonsense" please use the ignore button, it's made for that purpose. Goodbye

[Silverspoon]

Or did you actually stop buying once bitcoin price broke $13?

Even if dakota didn't, others probably did.

It's theoretically possible, but a smart guy once said that in theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.
In reality, very few people have bought a bundle at $13, put it in a paper wallet, and held 'til now.  Most 13 dollar coins were sold many times over, or stolen, or left on gox, or invested with pirate, and so on.  

But all that's beside the point.  What I find curious is how those who joined the forum in June (and likely lost half of their investment since then) like to quote pretty numbers from 2 years ago.

[JimboToronto]

What I find curious is how those who joined the forum in June (and likely lost half of their investment since then) like to quote pretty numbers from 2 years ago.

Is it too much for you to grasp the idea that he may have been involved in Bitcoin and even bought bitcoins years before joining this forum?

Then again, beartard trolls aren't the sharpest spoons in the knife drawer.

Sigh.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[noobtrader]

I know that, many thanks! But those are, on one hand, heavily protected wallets and, on the other hand, imagine the consequences if you were to steal one...
I'm asking if it's possible to divert from time to time some hashrate from a large mining pool and to silently crack old lost wallets (very easy passwords, most probably) and so to get 50 easy btc at a time. Clean and repeat, at the expense of pool members... And those would come as free 'bonus' to the actual reward of 25btc..
Have a look at hashrate variation here:
Where does it go approx. 200Th/s?!! Who does it in such a short time and most important why? (It's not so easy to underclock/overclock a mining farm neither to power it on and off) And why does it seem to repeat so frequently and it looks so much like a pattern?!

as i said before... btc miner goes to mining paycoin, but as now they were back.

about cracking wallet : short answer no, long answer yes, for more information pls google address collision

check this : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104461.0

let's apply probability to your scenario.

Let's say there are a billion people using 10 addresses each for 10 billion total addresses.

This means that each address you generate has a (1/2^160)*10,000,000,000 possibility of holding a balance, giving your first attempt a 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000684% chance of finding a collision on your first attempt.

You are correct in stating that with each try it will either happen or it won't, there is no in-between state, and you're correct in stating that it's possible. It's also bad news for the account holder that a collision would give you control of those funds.

Comparatively speaking, your odds of being struck by lightning in a given calendar year are about 1 in 280,000. The odds of winning my local lottery are about 1 in 176,000,000. So finding a collision on your first try is roughly equivalent to being hit by lightning 16,540,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times per second for an entire year or winning the lottery 830,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.

If you find a collision I would stay indoors and play the lottery.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Explanation

Dat wall

[Silverspoon]

What I find curious is how those who joined the forum in June (and likely lost half of their investment since then) like to quote pretty numbers from 2 years ago.

Is it too much for you to grasp the idea that he may have been involved in Bitcoin and even bought bitcoins years before joining this forum?

Then again, beartard trolls aren't the sharpest spoons in the knife drawer.

Sigh.

No no no, that's not the problem I'm having.  Mr. dakota neat has claimed to have made +2297.74% in two years, and I do understand that people on the internet don't lie.
Wishing to learn how to achieve such stellar results (who wouldn't amirite?), I asked my new friend to teach me.  He's fallen rather silent, which is not the usual friendly sharing and exchange of ideas I've come to expect from bitcointalk.

On an unrelated note, and if it's not too forward of me to ask, what is your current bitcoin position?  You seem to be rather testy and irritable, I understand such etiquette lapses are often the result of what's known in the financial circles as "being overinvested."
Is that, perhaps, the cause?

All the best

[aminorex]

Bears piss and moan about draw-downs, but the fact is, we're about as drawn down as one would expect.  Am I disappointed that COIN didn't list in November?  You betcha.  Does it cause me to quake and tremble and let coins slip between my fingers to the ground?  Not on your life.  The BTC market clearing price is within historical variance parameters relative to the log-logistic upward long-term trend curve.  And that is extremely bullish.  Is it possible to sell now and buy back lower?  Almost certainly.  Are you likely to successfully do so?  Ummm.... no, not bloody likely.  These are not Dunning-Kruggerands we're talking about.

[noobtrader]

What I find curious is how those who joined the forum in June (and likely lost half of their investment since then) like to quote pretty numbers from 2 years ago.

Is it too much for you to grasp the idea that he may have been involved in Bitcoin and even bought bitcoins years before joining this forum?

Then again, beartard trolls aren't the sharpest spoons in the knife drawer.

Sigh.

No no no, that's not the problem I'm having.  Mr. dakota neat has claimed to have made +2297.74% in two years, and I do understand that people on the internet don't lie.
Wishing to learn how to achieve such stellar results (who wouldn't amirite?), I asked my new friend to teach me.  He's fallen rather silent, which is not the usual friendly sharing and exchange of ideas I've come to expect from bitcointalk.

maybe he dont buy bitcoin from bitcointalk...

[JimboToronto]

Explanation

Dat wall

Been there for weeks.

[aliro38]

So, is it theoretically possible to reconstruct those lost wallets and to get ahold of coins?

Not that we know of. Even if all the network's computing power could be devoted to the task, it would take bazillion years to find the private key of one address by trial and error.

In theory, there may exist some magic algorithm that allows one to do that in a viable amount of time.  That would not only break bitcoin but also a lot of e-commerce and e-banking systems.  But no one has published such an algorithm, and apparently no one knows how to even start looking for it.  

[ ... ]

The bitcoin protocol gives about 3600 BTC (about 1.2 million USD) every day to the miners, no matter what.  The fraction that one miner gets from that bonanza is the same as the fraction of the total hash power than he controls.  Therefore, each miner who is making profit will want to have as much hashing power as he can, to maximize his profits.  That is the reason for the mining race.

Well, I'm stuck here: http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/22/is-it-possible-to-brute-force-bitcoin-address-creation-in-order-to-steal-money
The math posted there is ok for me but I'm not familiar with crypto so those parts are over my head for now, Anyway, as one can see, there is no consensus among experts. Interesting enough, it seems that one post there clearly reads "It is possible to brute force some Bitcoin addresses, because some people generate their private keys in an insecure manner." and further the author even gives some practical cases! Please have a look at it. Most answers says it's totally impractical if not entirely impossible while few seems to point that it is doable, in principle, but it would require a lot of hashing power (my concern exactly: where is all the missing hashing power going?!) and instead of attempting an attack  it would be more convenient to mine directly (yeah, but now the reward is halved so things significantly changed). So... what shall I get out of it?

As about the variance in hashing power, please see my above post (and graph). Maybe I was not clear enough as we may have a slight language barrier on my side.

[caga]

Explanation

Dat wall

Been there for weeks.

More like 2 days for now.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Why aren't people buying?
Why would people dump at this price?
Some people shouldn't dabble into the world of investments.

[noobtrader]

my concern exactly: where is the missing hashing power go?!

HELOOOOO!!!
i told you those miner were mining xpy coin...



btw i think you should goto beginner and help and post question there...

[kryptopojken]

Why aren't people buying?
Why would people dump at this price?
Some people shouldn't dabble into the world of investments.

I agree! These god damn traders are a plague for the bitcoin technology. They short and dump, now congrats to your $50 profit!! They just have to dump the living crap out of any potential rally