Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bagatell]

Number of transactions is down. Bearish.

It's the week after Christmas ffs.

[solex]

Number of transactions is down. Bearish.

It's the week after Christmas ffs.

Exactly. It's the least financially active week of the year!

[explorer]

I really don't know.  I think it will be moon or grave though.  Too many variables for me to make a concrete call.  I am heavily biased toward moon due to my investment level and wishful thinking, and will try to convince myself that way until we're there, or my dreams are crushed.  Such is life as an emotional human  
How big of a mess can the US make of the world in the mean time?  Fukin' huge, if past performance is a guide.  We'll be needing the internet and somewhere to live that doesn't glow in the dark.  That looks less and less likely the longer US hegemony exists.

Thanks. Your reply supports what is actually happening now in a sense, physical gold doesn't suffer from as many questionable variables as Bitcoin.

I don't suppose BTC is any less suppressed than gold, nor any less useful in a serious endgame situation.  If The East has a say in future, however, it looks as though they will back, and value gold, for sure.  Which isn't to say that BTC won't be even MORE valuable.  I've held gold long before BTC, its just that my BTC has outstripped the value of my gold rather crazily.  Gold has a longer history, BTC a greater upside potential.  What wins the day? One, the other, both, neither?  I really don't know, so I have multiple baskets, holding diverse egg types.  The biggest winners will probably be those that owe the most in the current system when it wipes itself out 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[catena5260]

Explanation

Seems bearish.

Hope we see some rise until the end of year to rise our moral

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The downtrend is still stuck between the fear and the denial phases. About half of the market has been starting to feel fear, while the other half is still strongly holding on to denial. The longer the market is stuck here, the deeper the final drop will be. All of this because there are too many inexperienced gamblers, who are making this market very inefficient. The average Joe in denial is helping the smarter speculators with bigger stakes to get out from a thin market.

[cbeast]

The downtrend is still stuck between the fear and the denial phases. About half of the market has been starting to feel fear, while the other half is still strongly holding on to denial. The longer the market is stuck here, the deeper the final drop will be. All of this because there are too many inexperienced gamblers, who are making this market very inefficient. The average Joe in denial is helping the smarter speculators with bigger stakes to get out from a thin market.

For some reason I don't have you on ignore. Being a bear is one thing, but what is your undeniable hypothesis?

[macsga]

This thread has become a beartrollfest. I'll come back when LambTroll is around. He's the president.

[yrask]

Price, in very slow way, will move until to 290$ within 15 day. It's very sad to observe that price everyday drop of 1-2$ 

[luckygenough56]

[greenlion]

Many thanks for your comprehensive answer!
It seems, as I've found in the last couple of hours, the use faulty PSRNG's might pose a threat, maybe significant enough to drive the price further down.
The unfolding story is here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=107172.msg8939173#msg8939173 I hope you'll find it interesting enough to consider including it in your great work (I'm closely following your posts) that you're doing on studying/documenting the whole ecosystem.

Thanks for the link and the compliment!

As I understood it, those Hyena guys claim that many wallet tools use PSRNGs that generate less than the required 2^160 bits of entropy.  They claim that the entropy is low enough that the chance of a collision is not negligible; and they have set up a lot of disk and computing power to catch for such collisions.

I doubt whether good PSRNGs, correctly implemented and used, have such a low entropy.  However, the probability of coding errors makes the project more plausible.  In conditional probability notation:

P(security broken) =
  P(software is correct) * P(security broken IF software is correct) +
  P(software is buggy) * P(security broken IF software is buggy)

A strong cryptographic method only ensures that the factor P(security broken IF software is correct) in the first term is astronomically small.  However, the factors P(software is buggy) and P(security broken IF software is buggy) are large enough to matter.  For bitcoin, empirically, the second term may be on the order of 1 in 10'000 or more, and is unlikely to decrease. (As time passes, the best implementations may get somewhat more secure; but the number of implementations will grow, so there will be fewer competent eyes checking each of them, and reports of coin theft will get less attention.)  Thus, P(security broken) should be large enough to notice, and will not be improved by switching to 512 bit keys or whatever.

For anyone really concerned, they may want to generate a private key with some dice.

Trollfi has no understanding of the issue of poor PSRNGs, and is quoting this Hyena person that is making a completely spurious and ridiculous claim. Troll quoting a troll in order to troll.

The issue with poor PSRNGs has noting to do with address generation, the only way poor randomness could be exploited with addresses is if you could reproduce the poor randomness yourself.

The issue is that poor PSRNGs conceivably could reuse or have insufficient entropy in "R" values in signing transactions, which allows an attacker looking at the transactions either in the blockchain or mempool to reverse ECDSA. This scenario is the real attack, because it doesn't necessarily require anything other than an understanding of the elliptic curve mathematics and scanning through transactions until you find a vulnerable public key.

This "Hash Hyena" is making the ridiculous claim that running vanitygen plus having a very large hard drive equals some kind of production of a collision database that produces non-trivial amounts of hits. That has no relevance to the issue of poor randomness, but I guess it sure sounds like it does!

The only thing here more ridiculous than Hash Hyena's claim about address security, is that pedantic P(security broken) formula, which at this point might as well be a laxative.

[findftp]

The downtrend is still stuck between the fear and the denial phases. About half of the market has been starting to feel fear, while the other half is still strongly holding on to denial. The longer the market is stuck here, the deeper the final drop will be. All of this because there are too many inexperienced gamblers, who are making this market very inefficient. The average Joe in denial is helping the smarter speculators with bigger stakes to get out from a thin market.

Has it ever been different in bitcoinland?
Bitcoin is repeating itself over and over again with decreasing volatility because people get educated along the ride.

I would say we are pretty close to panic and capitulation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[yrask]

Move down your 300. I think that now we are in panic phase, when we will arrive in Despondency phase price will be 250$. I don't think that price will have a very big drop.

[Thomas-s]

Come on people, together we can do it!
Let us push it beyond 300.

Together we can slay the bullwhale!

[yrask]

Come on people, together we can do it!
Let us push it beyond 300.

Why all people wants that bitcoin drop? I don't understand this :O. If you're a bitcoin owner, you can only hope that price will rise, or I'm wrong? I can not comprise your point of view

[bitcoin_purist]

Come on people, together we can do it!
Let us push it beyond 300.

Why all people wants that bitcoin drop? I don't understand this :O. If you're a bitcoin owner, you can only hope that price will rise, or I'm wrong? I can not comprise your point of view

It cannot rise forever.
It should bust a few times.

The art is to sell at the top, and buy in the bottom for maximum super duper double triple coins multipliers.

edit: yes, I'm long bitcoin, but I want more coins. You cannot get more coins when you hodl them. They should move or you have to throw extra fiat into it.
My fiat is already  maxed out into bitcoin, so I have to trade them.

[Tzupy]

1d PSAR flipped to bearish on both BTCchina and Bitfinex.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Come on people, together we can do it!
Let us push it beyond 300.

Why all people wants that bitcoin drop? I don't understand this :O. If you're a bitcoin owner, you can only hope that price will rise, or I'm wrong? I can not comprise your point of view

Because they want more coins & they can't afford to buy them at the current price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation