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Author Topic: Can Marine Le Pen win?  (Read 4171 times)
OmegaStarScream
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February 23, 2017, 01:05:44 PM
 #1

Donald Trump was never supposed to win the US election and even Brexit campaigners were surprised when Britain voted to leave the European Union, so the prospect of National Front candidate Marine Le Pen becoming French president does not seem as unlikely as it once did.

Ibtimes.co.uk : http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/field-podcast-france-poised-bitter-election-battle-can-marine-le-pen-win-1607621

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February 23, 2017, 01:32:26 PM
 #2

It is definitely not impossible I think.
At the moment the parties in France and their candidates for the presidential election seem to be in chaos, always affairs and irregularities, but LePen also. I think we outside of France need more and better information about the mood in this country. At the Brexit all the media in my country had written that most of the British will vote for staying in the EU. But all were wrong with their assessments, the British voted for the Brexit. The same in the presidential election in US...


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February 23, 2017, 02:01:33 PM
 #3

As much as I know and read somewhere, she has quite a huge chance of winning the elections. She has great support too and I like how her supporters are using the Hillary supporters phrase:" Are you man enough to vote for a woman?" Cheesy and we all know what happened with Brexit and Trumps win.

I really think she can win and I'm thinkin of putting my money on her to win. :p
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February 23, 2017, 02:07:54 PM
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I really do not see this happening.

Their party won a few mayor seats, and in all these cities were a lot of polemics.

One of these mayors decided to register and make a file of all dog owners along with the dog DNA.
If a dog poop is found on the street, it will be DNA analyzed and the dog owner will receive a fine.

And so on... Just imagine if they're in charge of the country. Massive files.

It just shows how these people intend to conduct the country. They were never in charge, they don't know how this works.

For these reasons, I don't think they'll win.

Last time Le Pen (her father) got to the 2nd turn of the election, he got 20% and people massively voted against (Chirac won with 80%).
If they get to the 2nd turn, something similar should happen.
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February 23, 2017, 02:27:08 PM
 #5

It is going to be extremely difficult for Marine Le Pen. In the first round, I have no doubt that she is going to win. But in the second round, all the mainstream parties are going to unite against her. I am still curious about who will be her opponent in the second round. If it is either Benoît Hamon or François Fillon, then there is a small chance for Le Pen. But zero chance if her opponent is Emmanuel Macron.

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February 23, 2017, 04:39:03 PM
 #6

It is going to be extremely difficult for Marine Le Pen. In the first round, I have no doubt that she is going to win. But in the second round, all the mainstream parties are going to unite against her. I am still curious about who will be her opponent in the second round. If it is either Benoît Hamon or François Fillon, then there is a small chance for Le Pen. But zero chance if her opponent is Emmanuel Macron.

I agree with you.
But, if external conditions change dramatically, and, for example, another terrorist attack happen in the France during presidential campaign, than chances for Le Pen will increase dramatically.
In the state of fear people don't think logically and can vote based on their feelings, not rational thinking.
Trump and Brexit already created very good conditions for her.
She is smarter than her father and knows how to manipulate voters.
So, everything is possible, really.

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February 24, 2017, 02:28:25 AM
 #7

It is going to be extremely difficult for Marine Le Pen. In the first round, I have no doubt that she is going to win. But in the second round, all the mainstream parties are going to unite against her. I am still curious about who will be her opponent in the second round. If it is either Benoît Hamon or François Fillon, then there is a small chance for Le Pen. But zero chance if her opponent is Emmanuel Macron.

I agree with you.
But, if external conditions change dramatically, and, for example, another terrorist attack happen in the France during presidential campaign, than chances for Le Pen will increase dramatically.

Terror attacks happen every now and then in France (Bataclan attacks, truck attack, Charlie Hebdo attack.etc), and the French are more or less used to it by now. Even if some new attack occurs, it will be having only a limited impact.

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February 24, 2017, 08:48:27 AM
 #8

It is going to be extremely difficult for Marine Le Pen. In the first round, I have no doubt that she is going to win. But in the second round, all the mainstream parties are going to unite against her. I am still curious about who will be her opponent in the second round. If it is either Benoît Hamon or François Fillon, then there is a small chance for Le Pen. But zero chance if her opponent is Emmanuel Macron.

That's where I think she will get more support and will get her way when all those mainstream big political parties go against her. I really hop e the best for her and we will see what will happen very soon.

Quote
Terror attacks happen every now and then in France (Bataclan attacks, truck attack, Charlie Hebdo attack.etc), and the French are more or less used to it by now. Even if some new attack occurs, it will be having only a limited impact.

Yes, the same thing that helped Trump win, will probably go into Le Pens' hand.
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February 24, 2017, 09:03:41 AM
 #9

It is going to be extremely difficult for Marine Le Pen. In the first round, I have no doubt that she is going to win. But in the second round, all the mainstream parties are going to unite against her. I am still curious about who will be her opponent in the second round. If it is either Benoît Hamon or François Fillon, then there is a small chance for Le Pen. But zero chance if her opponent is Emmanuel Macron.

That's where I think she will get more support and will get her way when all those mainstream big political parties go against her. I really hop e the best for her and we will see what will happen very soon.

Quote
Terror attacks happen every now and then in France (Bataclan attacks, truck attack, Charlie Hebdo attack.etc), and the French are more or less used to it by now. Even if some new attack occurs, it will be having only a limited impact.

Yes, the same thing that helped Trump win, will probably go into Le Pens' hand.

It is not very easy. Almost 30% of the French population is made up of immigrants, and this means that Le Pen needs to get more than 70% of the remaining vote to win the second round. It is similar to the United States, where Trump managed to win despite a heavy minority population. But Trump got 25% of the Hispanic vote. Le Pen is not going to get more than 2% of the Arab vote.

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February 24, 2017, 07:34:06 PM
 #10

Don't think she will pass.

Mainly because she's a bitch from a rich family completely faking her character. She's a bit our French Hillary xD

But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

Hard socialist against hard... Hard nothing in fact, against a rich girl who never done anything in her life ^^

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February 25, 2017, 06:13:18 AM
 #11

But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

There is no chance of that happening. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has suffered a sharp drop in his ratings. As per the latest opinion polls, he enjoys less than 10% support, with the other mainstream candidates far ahead of him.

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February 25, 2017, 02:16:33 PM
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But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

There is no chance of that happening. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has suffered a sharp drop in his ratings. As per the latest opinion polls, he enjoys less than 10% support, with the other mainstream candidates far ahead of him.

Really?
Last update I saw about him was around 18% so a rather good amount for a far left candidate!

Can't say much though, I don't really see the "normal" candidates getting more than 10%. Who in his right mind would vote for something like Fillon or Macron?

Anyone with a brain will have to chose between extreme left and extreme right. The middle is just a bunch of sold bitches. We should all behead them.

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February 25, 2017, 03:05:15 PM
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But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

There is no chance of that happening. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has suffered a sharp drop in his ratings. As per the latest opinion polls, he enjoys less than 10% support, with the other mainstream candidates far ahead of him.

Really?
Last update I saw about him was around 18% so a rather good amount for a far left candidate!

Can't say much though, I don't really see the "normal" candidates getting more than 10%. Who in his right mind would vote for something like Fillon or Macron?

Anyone with a brain will have to chose between extreme left and extreme right. The middle is just a bunch of sold bitches. We should all behead them.

Remember the times when extremism on the left and right was crazy and the middle was the golden way?  Undecided

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February 25, 2017, 03:12:15 PM
 #14

But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

There is no chance of that happening. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has suffered a sharp drop in his ratings. As per the latest opinion polls, he enjoys less than 10% support, with the other mainstream candidates far ahead of him.

Really?
Last update I saw about him was around 18% so a rather good amount for a far left candidate!

Can't say much though, I don't really see the "normal" candidates getting more than 10%. Who in his right mind would vote for something like Fillon or Macron?

Anyone with a brain will have to chose between extreme left and extreme right. The middle is just a bunch of sold bitches. We should all behead them.

Check this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

All the recent polls have him at around 11% - 12%. The other candidates are far ahead, with Le Pen polling somewhere between 25% and 27%, and Emmanuel Macron and François Fillon, both struggling at around 20%.

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February 25, 2017, 03:29:14 PM
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But you can never know, to be fair I would love to see a final turn with Melanchon and Lepen

There is no chance of that happening. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has suffered a sharp drop in his ratings. As per the latest opinion polls, he enjoys less than 10% support, with the other mainstream candidates far ahead of him.

Really?
Last update I saw about him was around 18% so a rather good amount for a far left candidate!

Can't say much though, I don't really see the "normal" candidates getting more than 10%. Who in his right mind would vote for something like Fillon or Macron?

Anyone with a brain will have to chose between extreme left and extreme right. The middle is just a bunch of sold bitches. We should all behead them.

Check this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

All the recent polls have him at around 11% - 12%. The other candidates are far ahead, with Le Pen polling somewhere between 25% and 27%, and Emmanuel Macron and François Fillon, both struggling at around 20%.
Marie Le pen refused to go for interrogation to the Prosecutor's office. Said busy with elections and will only come after the second round. Probably wants to hide behind presidential immunity. If anyone has influence the world to be a very promising direction. Maybe she want to give the opportunity to win elections to then manage it under threat of impeachment.
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February 25, 2017, 03:47:42 PM
 #16

Marie Le pen refused to go for interrogation to the Prosecutor's office. Said busy with elections and will only come after the second round. Probably wants to hide behind presidential immunity. If anyone has influence the world to be a very promising direction. Maybe she want to give the opportunity to win elections to then manage it under threat of impeachment.

Anyone who is capable of thinking logically, will come to the conclusion that the charges against Marine Le Pen are cooked up. She did the right thing by refusing to testify at the Prosecutor's office.

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February 25, 2017, 05:32:19 PM
 #17

She can win but will be difficult.

I prefer to live a day like a wolf than a hundred years as a lamb.

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February 26, 2017, 12:28:36 AM
 #18

After what already happened, I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen would win president elections. First off all - Brexit - mostly experts said that it won't happen, but british people voted for it. Similar story on USA president elections.
Le Pen don't have big chances to win elections. But I don't trust in polls anymore - it often don't reflects real situation.

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February 26, 2017, 04:12:42 AM
 #19

After what already happened, I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen would win president elections. First off all - Brexit - mostly experts said that it won't happen, but british people voted for it. Similar story on USA president elections.
Le Pen don't have big chances to win elections. But I don't trust in polls anymore - it often don't reflects real situation.

If you ask me "experts" should not be believed so much, they've been wrong on those things by far even tho they're "experts"... and if you pay them enough, those "experts" can claim whatever you want, "expert" title is being handed left and right.
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February 26, 2017, 05:19:32 AM
 #20

After what already happened, I wouldn't be surprised if Le Pen would win president elections. First off all - Brexit - mostly experts said that it won't happen, but british people voted for it. Similar story on USA president elections.
Le Pen don't have big chances to win elections. But I don't trust in polls anymore - it often don't reflects real situation.

In the US presidential elections, the opinion polls had it very close. According to the polls, Hillary had a lead of only around 2% or 3% during the last week of the elections. But in France it is different. The other candidates are polling around 20 points more than Le Pen in the second round.

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