Is trading just educated guessing?

[TheBTCAlex]

I really do agree, definitely think trading is more kinda educated guessing...traders basically just analyse the market trends and just predict the price and then decide just when to sell low based on their individual analysis of the market.

It is absolutely true that even the most experienced traders will still be making some losses, there is no way to just perfectly guess all the time.

[1714168621]

1714168621

[Mung1943]

Trading is fully done base on your skills, information, learning and experience. Its a desire and supply game. So in accordance to your requirements and demand from customers you get and promote to the other social gathering. Information about the world marketplaces, complex charts will aid you determined about the btc cost motion in coming time whether or not it will be going up or down and appropriately you can strategist your go.

[ShadowBits]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

well i think so it is an educated guess
for there are so many basis to look at and pointers how to tell whats going to be the movement
and of course people rely on the news and updates on the project of the coin
here they derive there prediction whether it will go up or down
it also depends on the traders skill to analyze those available basis

[moriskarlov]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No, you don't necessarily need insider info to be a successful trader, but it helps, a lot.
Trading is not about guessing, of course you can do that too, but don't forget that we have market indicators, news and expectations.
You said it - you need to be educated - and when you are educated enough you will have higher chance of making good trading decisions.

What do you mean about "to become educated?" Can you recommend some books, articles, or it is a matter of experience only to become a good trader. Or only option is to make mistakes and  to get knowledge about the market?

[seraph_the_wise]

I guess the answer depends if you believe markets are efficient or not 
Personally, I don't believe they are, but they become "more" efficient as they mature, and more "exploits" are fixed. Information advantage and inside trading are only some factors. So is the investment stake (size, diversity, risk factors), bias, yr base model, etc. Funny thing is, if you are looking at news and betting, there is someone that already parsed those and acted accordingly (tradebots), so you are indeed random guessing the market 

[andrei56]

To get the profit in the trade you need a lot of time for a good analysis, if you just guess and do not control your emotions then this will just be a game that will bring a lot of losses.

Trading by just just guessing is just a way of gambling and the truth is that many people do not read a single book when they begin trading since they think that earning money in trading is easy when in fact it is very difficult and only a selected few make profits.

[Gozie51]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

In some aspects, it is. You'll need to analyze which coin will give you profit and which won't. There are also scamcoins that you should avoid. You better be careful about coins with unfamiliar names and with suspiscious price. Also, it will be better if you'll make a research about the background of the coin you'll trade with. You may also consult the seniors that knows lot of things in altcoin trading. Observation will also help you to avoid losing money.

Nice advise menh... I think we need this kind of sound advice in this forum. Meanwhile, I think what moves crypto market are speculation / fear, huge crypto investment etc. Not necessarily guess but you also need education to pick out the best decision at the point in time.

[Hydrogen]

I know some wall street traders go so far as to compile data on average price movements for monday, tuesday, wednesday, thursday, friday, saturday, sunday to get an indication on which days are the best and worst to buy/sell. The same for months of the year and other timeframes for which trading can be broken down.

It may be defined as educated guessing. But there is a lot of statistical and data analysis that goes into it. At least there is with serious traders operating at high levels. There's also a lot of mathematical analysis and theoretical projection work involved.

One example of this, in some previous years bitcoin's price has peaked towards the end of the year during the holidays. Whether this trend will remain true for 2017 is anyone's guess. But based on past data we're now entering a time when bitcoin's price often peaks.

[flippener]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

No. But that's not really the point. It's like owning a casino - you only have to win slightly more than you lose, consistently, to get rich.

[Didle1938]

Trading is totally carried out foundation on your skills, information, understanding and expertise. Its a need and source match. So in accordance to your needs and need you get and offer to the other party. Information about the globe markets, technical charts will aid you determined about the btc price movement in coming time regardless of whether it will be heading up or down and accordingly you can strategist your go.

[mobilezz]

Trade requires good analysis in order to make a profit, but if you try to just guess in the trade then it will be the same as gambling. Experienced traders certainly use analysis.

[Smarty14392]

Trade requires good analysis in order to make a profit, but if you try to just guess in the trade then it will be the same as gambling. Experienced traders certainly use analysis.

Trading can be converted into gambling if the investors are making moves on mere guesses. No one is going to earn nice profits in trading until and unless he/she has good knowledge about the crypto markets, nature of different coins, their current prices etc. trading is a profession for me.

[Opekin]

Trade requires good analysis in order to make a profit, but if you try to just guess in the trade then it will be the same as gambling. Experienced traders certainly use analysis.

Trading can be converted into gambling if the investors are making moves on mere guesses. No one is going to earn nice profits in trading until and unless he/she has good knowledge about the crypto markets, nature of different coins, their current prices etc. trading is a profession for me.

Trading is more than a profession it is also a business to which you need to know almost all the edge to earn, frankly it is hard and we come to this to guess but a guess would be backed with knowledge or analysis or just guessing your luck on different altcoins.

[SushiMonster]

Not an educated guess but more like trading is a strategic planning. you are trying to study the price cap/ inflation of bitcoin price.

[Natalim]

Not an educated guess but more like trading is a strategic planning. you are trying to study the price cap/ inflation of bitcoin price.

You knowledge is very important because whether we like it or not trading is like a game where we risk our money to guess the outcome.
Of course it's an educated guess for me because you have a basis on your guess and when your source or basis are reliable, most likely you can come up with an accurate prediction.

[Koadharber]

Not an educated guess but more like trading is a strategic planning. you are trying to study the price cap/ inflation of bitcoin price.

You knowledge is very important because whether we like it or not trading is like a game where we risk our money to guess the outcome.
Of course it's an educated guess for me because you have a basis on your guess and when your source or basis are reliable, most likely you can come up with an accurate prediction.

I do have the same perspective on trading on which its really most likely a educated guess since we do really have some basis regarding on our predictions on which price would potentially go.Having knowledge is very crucial because if you dont make any basis then its just like you are doing gambling.You are only putting your money and hoping that price will go into your random guess which is really different.

[Capradina]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

We dont really need an insider info to make money on trading and as being said trading isnt just like complete an educated guess because if we do say the word "guess" we are randomly selecting a particular thing even though its educated it cant be considered since we do have basis on why we do choose a particular decision. Its somehow need some luck but most of the part it would really require knowledge.

Luck plays role in every part of life and it is nothing different that it is involved in success with bitcoins. Rest to be a winner with bitcoins, we need good grip over mathematics, statistics etc to make right decisions at right time. Trading is a complete profession not a guessing game.

Yup, if we assume that trading has a technique that cannot be defeated IE luck then surely we get mostly is defeat. because a good luck never will we can get only by playing recklessly or play without a strategy that is very ripe. Indeed profitable trading, but if we're wrong step then it's certainly everything will be detrimental. Because of the nature of the trading system more advanced than other areas, so we should be able to follow all the games well.

[Dudeperfect]

I won't call it educated guessing but it's the mixture of the skills and luck. Sometimes, I do find many similarities between Ludo (the game) and trading because you really don't know what's going to happen in next moment but still, the result depends on what and how you move in certain situations. The word guessing is more appropriate in gambling where you have absolutely no control over the situation, the only thing you can do is to guess what's next and there is no scientific strategy behind it.

[thoham]

Trading no need educated guessing, it needs information in the right person. Information is the most important in trading . Second is Researching. Educated is unnecessary.

[Sanugarid]

Can you really be sure you will profit unless you have insider info?

Investment always involves risk. In order to lessen the risk you should study about the thing where you invest your money with, which will be your insider information. You need to have knowledge about things to know what are the do's and don'ts, to also avoid loss of money. If there'll be less risk, you'll be somehow assured of your profit.