Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[ironstove]

If 120 holds a week from now then I'll admit I was wrong. I have bids set to buy back in at 142.3 after selling 154 so I'm OK with this.

However if the 120 wall is breached to the 110 territory...

Anyway, this is the speculation forum after all.

[arepo]

Tsss, so doom and gloom.
Let us at least touch $120, will you?  

But I admit that 5k @ $121 and 5k @ $120 isn't that much.
So much tension in the air! Weeeeee!

i'm getting more and more suspicious of that never happening as time goes on...

i feel that we are short-term oversold, investor confidence at a local low, etc. most people went to sleep, put their bids at $90 -- hah! the market moves to minimize profits. we'll rebound before the bulk of the money gets back into the market for this reason, if we don't break under $120 soon, and the ask depth didn't exactly fill in...

all i can say is i wish your bid at $120 good luck  

--arepo

[Jaroslaw]

I want to lick 119$ and i want to lick it today. Shall we ?

[Miz4r]

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again.

[Jaroslaw]

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again.

It will be today  ? i like watchins you loosing money

[Miz4r]

Too bad for you I'm only making money from the panic sell offs, and you're not getting my cheap coins because I don't sell low.

[arepo]

You shouldn't explain these things arepo.. I want to see fud trolls like Jaroslaw and Nikola biting the dirt when bitcoin takes off again.

haha they'll think what they do no matter what i say, don't worry

[SlipperySlope]

i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.

[arepo]

i suspect that new traders played an important role as well, possibly panic selling after buying into the overzealous rally (panic and greed in the same week!).

You could make the same statement about every Sucker's Rally. Do you see any evidence that one just peaked? I have only my feeling from watching Moody that selling is the theme now.

i don't think it's quite fair to call that a 'sucker's rally' -- it wanted to happen, the market was oversold when we started out.

as for selling as the theme -- i rather have the feeling that after yesterdays volume, there aren't many more coins left to sell 

--arepo

[arepo]

-===-

this is a pretty big moment for this baby bull... if we can break out of this range it'd be the first real evidence of a resumption of the uptrend -- right now we're still stuck in a bearish consolidation pennant.

edit:

further evidence for criticality: if we don't make major gains today we'll have a high-volume doji on the 3-day scale.

-===-

[evolve]

Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading this thread

[arepo]

Keep up the good work, I enjoy reading this thread

thanks for the feedback

-===-

x-post from "Arepo's easy TA":

This--


...reminds me of these:



Thoughts?

good observation!

there is one very important difference. bearish wedges exhibit higher lows and higher highs, resulting in a general upward slope.

this triangle has a level top resistance, and we're consolidating bullishly so far. some evidence for this in this post.

--arepo

[MAbtc]

When one says that we are "oversold", how do we observe this?

[arepo]

When one says that we are "oversold", how do we observe this?

oscillators, mainly -- are you familiar with these indicators?

here's the CCI:

-===-

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

if you are not familiar, here are the basics, in brief:

oscillators roughly measure the 'momentum' of price. below the zero line is bearish (negative momentum), above is bullish. bounds which are calibrated to each unique formula are drawn to demonstrate periods of overbuying and overselling. notice how peaks in overbuying are often followed by market corrections, where the more severe the correction, the lower the oscillator drops? this allows for the use of trendlines to determine reversals. the last major correction before the crash found clear support on the zero-line -- a very bullish sign -- anticipating the next peak.

now for my annotations, and your question:

large blue spike says 'short-term oversold'. much red during the run-up could mean 'mid-term overbought', which is why many fear a downward correction at this point.

however, the zero-line crossover and then support during the consolidation is very bullish, as is the beak into the 'overbought' zone. (entering the overbought zone is bullish, leaving is bearish -- and vice versa for oversold).

hope this satisfies your question.

--arepo

[MAbtc]

Very helpful, thank you!

[Frozenlock]

This--

Almost completed. Brace yourselves.

[arepo]

*10-day hourly scale*



-===-

50-line bounce is a little worrying... i was anticipating more buying pressure than this.

we might see a more bearish, continued consolidation as projected in this model:

-===-



-===-

but $120 should still hold for the short-term, at least.

--arepo

[dykast]

Great thread, first time reading it. 

[arepo]

This--

Almost completed. Brace yourselves.

we bounced  where are the buyers?

[seleme]

TA's gonna kill you mate. I'm waiting to see your post "I'm Arepo. Or I'm not?"