Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Projections

[arepo]

Arepo, don't worry about making us do some additional disclaimer thing, if it saves you from douche bags that can't think for themselves and trust their life savings to you on a whim I will be more then happy to comply.  Just don't put in any small lettering demanding my first born... first that's just demented and second... not having any:)

haha it was in complete un-seriousness, don't worry . although i feel i will have to consult legal advice before publishing again, for those of you who expressed interest in a follow-up report.

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[ruski]

Sorry for breaking up the party. Hopefully it's for the better.

[arepo]

Sorry for breaking up the party. Hopefully it's for the better.

no worries. i definitely appreciate the heads-up

[arepo]

in the meantime, i'm going to continue posting updates for current price action.

update 5:

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subscribers know what i mean 

[arepo]

update 6:

10-day 2-hourhourly scale



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'moving support' here even more robust than the scaled chart i sent out in emails, showing the insane momentum of this last push. we're gonna start running out of space, soon, though. picking up some risk here.

[arepo]

update 6:

more trendline magic!

William's %R 10-DAY 1-HOUR scale

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downward breakout associated with a correction to the uptrend, as projected from update 5. 50-line bounce is very bullish, and we seem to have found support at a lower line.

[arepo]

update 7:

*charts are 1-month 6-hour scale*

we're starting to see some panic selling. what happened to investor confidence? it is deepening the correction but we're still in bull territory:

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as long as that trendline holds, the picture remains bullish.

remember this?

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right now, we are still in scenario black.

if the trendline breaks, scenario red could still be bullish, but carries a lot of reversal-risk (see high-volume green 'doji' on 6-hour scale)

and at least for now, it still seems like there is too much bullish momentum and not enough selling pressure for scenario blue (REVERSAL).

[michaelGedi]

trend broke yes?

my 6 hourly chart looks different to your screenshot.

Anyways I sold out before I lost my profit but seems to be stablising at 145 now. Then again, I thought that at 150!

best of luck

[arepo]

trend broke yes?

my 6 hourly chart looks different to your screenshot.

Anyways I sold out before I lost my profit but seems to be stablising at 145 now. Then again, I thought that at 150!

best of luck

there's a candle battle going on right now, which affects the last data point, which is the important one. this is why my screen shot looks different, the graph changes as the data changes. nothing definitive until this 6-hour candle closes but it seems there's been some bullish action since you posted the above because we're still just stuck on that scenario black line at this moment. as long as we sit here, this is 'just a correction'. any lower and things start to look scary.. that green doji up to $166 and huge volume bar does not make me smile.

i secured some profit too, thankfully, but i'm disappointed that there was so much panic selling. i thought people really believed in this rally, but apparently it was about 40% greed, at least. we'll see in time.

[arepo]

update 8:

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scary bear pennant could break downwards. if it does, we may see as low as $130 but there will be incredibly strong support there. scenario RED seems most likely, with the mid-term bull trend intact. just had to shake out all the weak, greedy hands.

either way, the breakout will occur within approximately 3 hours.

--arepo

[ruski]

scary bear pennant could break downwards. if it does, we may see as low as $130 but there will be incredibly strong support there. scenario RED seems most likely, with the mid-term bull trend intact. just had to shake out all the weak, greedy hands.

either way, the breakout will occur within approximately 3 hours.

You're calling that a bear pennant? I wouldn't even qualify that as a consolidation triangle over such a short time period. That volume spike on the drop also discredits it. The bearish reversal warnings at every peak and trough since $145 are a little worrying but since it's BTC...

[arepo]

scary bear pennant could break downwards. if it does, we may see as low as $130 but there will be incredibly strong support there. scenario RED seems most likely, with the mid-term bull trend intact. just had to shake out all the weak, greedy hands.

either way, the breakout will occur within approximately 3 hours.

You're calling that a bear pennant? I wouldn't even qualify that as a consolidation triangle over such a short time period. That volume spike on the drop also discredits it. The bearish reversal warnings at every peak and trough since $145 are a little worrying but since it's BTC...

lucif also complains about my time-scales however the fractal hypothesis holds that these patterns do exist on these small scales, they are just often obscured by a lot of noise.

as such, the short time scale does make it difficult to tell if it is a robust pattern, but it fits the bill. i'll agree, however, that this is a 'weak' pennant.

if i didn't zoom in so far, the volume wouldn't look so sporadic, but the triangle detail can't be resolved at the next scale up. however, the large volume is consistent with the base of a triangle, i don't believe that this breaks the pattern. we'll see if the breakout occurs on schedule.

also, i've been attempting to determine the moving support for this rally but it is such a strange shape. by any measurement, it looks like we're way above any reasonable linear moving support so even a bounce off of $130 will not invalidate the underlying bull trend visible in the oscillators. if we touch $130 again, the $166 doji would be warranted, as we would have retraced that entire movement (hence reversal) but there's just way too much support for it to be anything but short-term. the mid-term trend prevails.

--arepo

[arepo]

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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[ruski]

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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I could write you an essay on why that's wrong: tl;dr I strongly disagree.

[lewicki]

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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I could write you an essay on why that's wrong: tl;dr I strongly disagree.

Go on... I'm captivated by this conversation.

[arepo]

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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[snip]

I could write you an essay on why that's wrong: tl;dr I strongly disagree.

i am quite curious as well -- i'd appreciate the constructive criticism of the methods i use. feel free to share here.

[ruski]

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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[snip]

I could write you an essay on why that's wrong: tl;dr I strongly disagree.

i am quite curious as well -- i'd appreciate the constructive criticism of the methods i use. feel free to share here.

Alright. Where do I start.

Firstly, calling a series of four descending candlesticks a "triangle" is inane. They have higher "volume" in the higher price ranges than the outlying ones, which if you try to visually expand that to a longer timescale, results in high fluctuation in volume, definitively busting any bear/bull/consolidation pennant. Furthermore trying to do so simply because there was a "breakout" at the end - which seems to be the only reason you've picked a triangle to retroactively label that period - is even more inane. There are a dozen models that would be more accurate in reading that scenario than trying to shoehorn it into this model. That could be a bearish abandoned baby back at $155.5, which would mean the price was going to fall sharply after slowing. That could be another one, at the $165 peak - and in fact it is almost.

TA is an adjunct to knowledge of the market conditions. The only thing that explains (IMO) that rise is bullish sentiment. Most all of the technicals pointed to a drop.

[arepo]

ii'm about to respond to you, ruski, but let me put this out here first.

update 8:

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scary bear pennant could break downwards. if it does, we may see as low as $130 but there will be incredibly strong support there. scenario RED seems most likely, with the mid-term bull trend intact. just had to shake out all the weak, greedy hands.

either way, the breakout will occur within approximately 3 hours.

it's been about an hour since this call. let us consider this an experiment, or a 'test' of the fractal hypothesis. of the small-scale triangles, this 'weak' pennant is one of the more robust ones i've observed. therefore, i'm confident that we'll see a breakout. 2 hours and counting.

[arepo]

Alright. Where do I start.

Firstly, calling a series of four descending candlesticks a "triangle" is inane. They have higher "volume" in the higher price ranges than the outlying ones, which if you try to visually expand that to a longer timescale, results in high fluctuation in volume, definitively busting any bear/bull/consolidation pennant. Furthermore trying to do so simply because there was a "breakout" at the end - which seems to be the only reason you've picked a triangle to retroactively label that period - is even more inane. There are a dozen models that would be more accurate in reading that scenario than trying to shoehorn it into this model. That could be a bearish abandoned baby back at $155.5, which would mean the price was going to fall sharply after slowing. That could be another one, at the $165 peak - and in fact it is almost.

TA is an adjunct to knowledge of the market conditions. The only thing that explains (IMO) that rise is bullish sentiment. Most all of the technicals pointed to a drop.

here's another example of a robust, micro-scale (triangle-within-a-) triangle:

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how about 21 candles?

in all seriousness, while i do understand the point about the validity of other pattern assessments, i don't quite follow what you mean by comparing the volume in the higher price ranges to the outlying ones. maybe you can clarify?

i think that you misunderstood my intent in 'shoehorning' the pattern into this model. as you can see, i really love triangles.

i think nested triangles are beautiful, and you have to admit that the 21-candle resolution shows a robust triangle shape. i don't even have to draw the lines.

coming back to your point, what's useful about candlestick analysis is that it gives directional bias: you have a 'bearish' abandoned baby or a 'bullish' engulfing shape. triangles tend not to do this. only certain specific market conditions, like consolidation after a large drop, have directional bias -- that's where the 'bearish pennant' comes from, i'm sure you know already.

keeping this in mind, my intent was more to point out a triangle than to determinate the breakout direction. it is a 'weak' pennant, but it is a robust triangle. and triangles are useful to identify even when you have no idea in which direction they will break out because the breakout is a signal. if you can determine a time frame during which the breakout must occur, when you see the sudden volume, you receive the directional signal well before the movement out of the range.

i hope this makes my above posts seem less inane

--arepo

[David M]

I can't take it anymore.

Not to the OP personally, but damn.

If a "trading system" works, then it stands to reason that it can only be known to a few participants.  i.e If a majority "know it" then it cannot work.
Absorb other techniques and build your own.

I say this because I have traded in "front" of the market (as a Future adviser) and the locals know exactly what re-tracement/wedge/Fibonacci/macd/RSI/Stochastic/Bollinger/neural net etc.. will do at price points.   And they trade accordingly.  Push/pulling prices to these pivots is what they live for.

To the "new day traders" out there....

Take a long hard look at this chart.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgCza1gWMAzm1g13zm2g25

Now look at it again and then take a "guess" where it will be in September 2013 this year.

Carry on trading and good luck.

Disclaimer:  I'm long bitcoin.
Random advice: Buy all dips.