Sleeping giant is awakening?? LTC back to $50 now ??

[QuintLeo]

So the new (higher efficiency) ASICs supply is limited

 The supply of ALL current ASIC for cryptocoin mining is limited because the availability of FAB SPACE to make the chips is overloaded.

 As far as I know, there are STILL only 3 fabs in the world that can make the current 14/16nm parts:
 GlobalFounderies (largely tied up with work for AMD and IBM due to how GF came into existance and who it got it's founderies FROM and the contractual requirements from that history)
 TSMC (hello Samsung, NVidia, and other LARGE customers having high priority)
 Intel (which only makes parts for Intel internal use and is also likely running at or near capasity).


 It has been obvious for a while that Bitmain has been selling as many S9/R4/T9 units as it could get the chips for - and that they haven't been able to get enough chips for THOSE to satisfy the demand, despite the poor reliability of the S9.

 It seems likely that Bitfury has had delays in selling it's new chip to others at least in part to that same issue, and probably was using all of it's supply for internal deployment for months.

 BW.com probably put it's "sell miners" plans on hold due to having a hard time getting enough for IT'S internal usage.

 Caanan doesn't seem to sell enough Avalons to have had major shortage issues.



 No conspiracy theory needed, just examination of the facts regarding high demand vs low capasity SO FAR to make the new-node chips.



 It even seems to be affecting Baikal to a degree, despite them being on an older process node - though I suspect that the issue there is more that "we got hit by unexpected demand that cleaned us out overnight and there is ALWAYS lag time getting a new batch of chips ordered, delivered, and machines built from them" even on mature process nodes.
 Even mature node fabs tend to be booked ahead at least somewhat, especially if the node is less than 3 generations old (a lot of AMD and Intel support chipsets, perhaps ALL of them are STILL built on 28 or 32 nm 'cause it's a waste to make those on 14/16 or even 22).

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[iamnotback]

In the meantime, we have to deal within the reality that Satoshi gave us. And that is Bitcoin will remain immutable. So Litecoin is where we can have big blocks, SegWit, and LN.

Notice how F2Pool has used April fools as a way to signal SegWit on Litecoin but to make it seem like he wasn't serious because he signaled conflicting things on Bitcoin. He is serious about the signaling on Litecoin. He wants SegWit (look at his efforts on Syscoin to test out activation), but he doesn't want to create conflict with those on Bitcoin who know that we must keep small blocks on Bitcoin else we lose the equilibrium that Satoshi design. So he signaled nonsense on Bitcoin and signaled serious SegWit on Litecoin.

The miners are navigating opportunity costs and power structures that Satoshi's design enables. I agree the process is noisy. Noise is a result of the imperfect matching of fungible money and non-fungible knowledge value. I wrote about this extensively else where. Very abstract concepts.

This guy likes to have a joke and keep us all guessing.

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/843754861757788160

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/847435526500007937

He is not signaling multiple conflicting things on Litecoin. He is using the above obfuscation exactly as I predicted he would. The economic reality is:

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/846760903739551744

Can't you see what he is signaling?

Review those tweets again.

He is signaling:

1. Hey Bitcoin can't come to a consensus on any changes. This is a mess. I'll express my disgust with an April fools joke by signaling conflicting positions simultaneously.

2. I can't signal multiple conflicting options on Litecoin. Thus I am making a very strong implied message for those who aren't too dumb to see it.

Do you guys get it now? He is signaling that Bitcoin is a clusterfuck where the softfork can't be achieved. And he is signaling that Litecoin doesn't have the conflicting mess and he is ready and willing to activate SegWit on Litecoin if the consensus threshold of 75% is reached.

Litecoin's miners and whales have every incentive to activate SegWit so that the price goes back up to $50.

It will happen. And SegWit won't happen on Bitcoin.

He just explained it all to you, if you are paying attention.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCBTC/f54ZHTrX-Is-LTC-Really-About-to-Make-a-Huge-Run-on-BTC-EW-Analysis/

I believe EW analysis is as good as tossing a coin.

But the descending broadening wedge breaks out to the upside 79% of the time:

Descending Broadening Wedge Trading Tips

Breakout:   The breakout direction is upward 79% of the time.

<snip>

Looks like f2pool tried to push segwit activation on syscoin.

https://twitter.com/f2pool_wangchun/status/847493350072606724

If segwit is activated on altcoins, but not on bitcoin, do the altcoin developers know how to progress segwit?

Charlie Lee works for Coinbase. I presume Blockstream's bankster backers will realize they need to move forward and Litecoin provides them the easiest transition to do so, if they can't attain consensus for activating SegWit for Bitcoin. All affected parties will be forced to move in the path of least resistance.

Frankly I think it is quite dangerous to activate such radical changes to Bitcoin. Much better to activate on a lesser blockchain so if there are flaws and bugs then Bitcoin isn't as affected. Bitcoin needs to be stable and prioritize continuity, because it is intended to the gold standard of blockchain tokens.

LN is all about enabling private fractional reserve banking with centralized hubs. LN just doesn't scale otherwise (due to routing and other issues). That is probably why Blockstream received $70m in funding. Perhaps they thought they could hijack Bitcoin, but they will have to face the reality of the situation.

Ethereum will be shipping a beta of a LN clone soon named Raiden. So the pressure is mounting on Blockstream and also on everyone invested in Bitcoin. Seems to me that Litecoin is the best option available to all affected parties.

Perhaps Blockstream can sell the idea to themselves by keeping their options open to potentially migrate the new technologies to Bitcoin someday, while pushing forward on Litecoin as a testbed and also to get real world adoption underway asap.

It just makes all the sense to stop this squabbling and move on/forward. Our productive energies are best spent on evangelizing blockchains and not fighting amongst ourselves.

[iamnotback]

I don't see SegWit having a significant impact on Litecoin. I also suspect it's going to settle back into it's long-term $3.50-$4.50 range quickly after the Bitcoin "potential fork" issues get resolved - and I figure that resolution will also hammer current inflated pricing on most of the altcoins that have seen big rises the past month.

The market already knows the BU fork died. But the market knows that we need scaling else adoption will falter due to very high transaction fees and delayed transaction confirmations.

The miners are not going to enable SegWit on Bitcoin because they are making a lot of money by not doing so. Yet some of those same miners and ASIC manufacturers will make a hell of a lot more money by activating SegWit on Litecoin.

It's happening.

[vlight]

I don't see SegWit having a significant impact on Litecoin. I also suspect it's going to settle back into it's long-term $3.50-$4.50 range quickly after the Bitcoin "potential fork" issues get resolved - and I figure that resolution will also hammer current inflated pricing on most of the altcoins that have seen big rises the past month.

The market already knows the BU fork died. But the market knows that we need scaling else adoption will falter due to very high transaction fees and delayed transaction confirmations.

The miners are not going to enable SegWit on Bitcoin because they are making a lot of money by not doing so. Yet some of those same miners and ASIC manufacturers will make a hell of a lot more money by activating SegWit on Litecoin.

It's happening.

You mean from Bitcoin transaction fees? But wouldn't they make more money with segwit and BTC price going up?

[iamnotback]

the $50 will come down to the Chinese and how they will perform in the following days. it has always been like this.
remember the LTC halving pump? liteocin was on a good path up and suddenly someone over in China let lose of the bags on the market and crushed the price as if they don't know why a slow sell to get most profit means!

but so far we are good and the rise seems to be starting. hope to see LTC go higher, it really deserves it more than the rest of them.

Litecoin offered no compelling need to exist before the SegWit impasse. Now it has a very, very important reason to exist.

Chinaman mining industry was keeping Litecoin low to prevent any serious competition to Bitcoin, and to prepare to have the power that they have now to incentivize activation of compelling protocol changes by allowing the LTC price to rise which causes ASIC demand to outstrip supply. I explained the dynamics upthread. The mining industry makes a huge profit with this move. The Chinaman is a chess player.

Re-reading all my posts (and clicking all links in posts) in this thread and the other thread, will bring holistic understanding.

@franky1 those who manufacture Scrypt ASICs and those who have pre-ordered the new generation of Scrypt ASICs will also profit.

You might be correct that Antpool is the odd man out, but creating more demand for limited fab space probably means their existing stock of ASICs becomes more valuable. When mining farms for Bitcoin (or Litecoin) can't ramp up difficulty fast enough to keep up with price rises, then all existing miners earn more profit throughout the industry.

By eliminating the stalemate on Bitcoin by getting SegWit activated on Litecoin, this frees up Bitcoin to move to $2000+ because scaling will be provided by the ecosystem. And I already explained in the other thread that the tail doesn't wag the dog in finance, thus scaling on Litecoin will drive demand for Bitcoin up by the power brokers who must use Bitcoin (because of the reasons I stated).

I am not sure how Bitcoin traders will initially react to scaling going exclusively to Litecoin, maybe they might sell Bitcoin, but later they will come to understand that Bitcoin grows as its altcoins grow. The ecosystem is symbiotic. MPEx the Bitcoin options and stock exchange was capturing a percentage of all the speculation waves in all altcoin tokens, not just Bitcoin.

The above quote answers the following question:

You mean from Bitcoin transaction fees? But wouldn't they make more money with segwit and BTC price going up?

[JessicaG]

It all remains yet to be seen. After all, this increase is barely just 2 days old; and in combination with some of the other alts (and some doing crazy) increases recently, it kinda reminds me of the LTC ponzi pumping in mid 2015...

[iamnotback]

Low power Scrypt ASIC is out of stock!

April fools is already over in China, the joke would be going too far if he switched off now, it would make a lot of people invested in LTC lose a lot of money. Apparently people has invested in scrypt mining gear too. If he pulls out now he's asking to get shot. Those kind of jokes have real life consequences.

The economics are not a joke. This is virtually a sure thing. Anyone not buying LTC right now is going to be butthurt and have less BTC than those who did. However, SegWit signaling has stalled at 58% for the past hour or two.

The economics are such that which ever miners have a vested interest in keeping the LTC price down thus not signaling SegWit will gradually be debased within the hashrate because those who are buying up the old model A4 Scrypt miners are only profitable at this higher price. So they will signal SegWit as the supply of A4s becomes sold out.The new models which are twice as efficient are monopolized by those who want the price to go higher. This economics seems inevitable.

[iamnotback]

QUESTION: will a higher LTC price suck GPU hashrate from ETH or is there sufficient supply of GPUs? If yes, then even Ethereum's miners might be in support of the Litecoin activation of SegWit. Why would BTCC mine LTC with their GPUs otherwise.

BTCC wins because they have warehouses of gpu's

Okay so Litecoin has 58% of SegWit signaling without BTCC's help. Yet Bobby Lee created BTCC because of his brother Charlie Lee. I think we can expect BTCC take some GPU hashrate away from ETH and/or ETC, to push SegWit to activation at 75% support and keep it there while the support for SegWit solidifies for the inevitable economic reason I have explained. They will be losing money on the LTC mining with GPUs, but gaining overall in the strategic sense. Remember BTCC is also involved with Scrypt mining so their profitability on that will increase as a result of a much higher LTC price. The GPUs are probably their least valuable asset that is closest to end of life, so they'd probably sacrifice it, especially given Vitalik is planning on changing the consensus algorithm to PoS.

Thus I now feel this is virtually a sure thing and have dumped my ETH in exchange for LTC. I don't want to be holding ETH if BTCC removes hashrate from ETH and/or ETC.

@alyssa85, it's a mix of hype (btc can't activate it, ltc can) plus the fact that segwit enables LN, plus new asic miners which are extremely efficient so the miners will benefit alot from these miners and higher prices. Plus the fact that most ltc is in chinese hands therefore they control most of the supply which means they can pump it alot, and the fact that they mine it is a double win. I think this is why @iamnotback thinks ltc may reach ATH, assuming segwit's activating.

Other projects with segwit don't matter because they are too small, no network effect, no brand recognition, etc. Did i miss anything ?

Speculation is future looking. If Litecoin gets LN and Bitcoin doesn't, then LN is the top contender for (private fractional reserve banking) scaling that will be acceptable to those who support only Satoshi's PoW.

Ethereum is next best contender for LN clone Raiden, but Ethereum is for a different crowd of speculators who believe in more uses for blockchain than just payments. Not for the conservative Bitcoin maximalists. I'll be trading some back into ETH (taking profits to recover original investment and let the rest ride) after the big move up in LTC, if I am correct about that. (Otherwise I'll be licking my wounds)

After that is bunch of dogshit coins that nobody (who knows technology of blockchains well) gives a hoot about except to pump and dump, except maybe Monero and Zcash but I'm waiting for a re-entry point in Monero below $15.

[iamnotback]

A chart communicates more effectively than 1000 words...

[fright]

iamnotback, so is it the good time to buy some LTC for holding? or can we expect a little correction now?

[Nathan047]

iamnotback, so is it the good time to buy some LTC for holding? or can we expect a little correction now?

Yea, I’m kind of wondering the same thing. I have no idea if it will start going back down or continue going up; and I’m thinking I’ll either buy or dump soon. Any advice?

[Pattberry]

I don't see SegWit having a significant impact on Litecoin. I also suspect it's going to settle back into it's long-term $3.50-$4.50 range quickly after the Bitcoin "potential fork" issues get resolved - and I figure that resolution will also hammer current inflated pricing on most of the altcoins that have seen big rises the past month.

The market already knows the BU fork died. But the market knows that we need scaling else adoption will falter due to very high transaction fees and delayed transaction confirmations.
The miners are not going to enable SegWit on Bitcoin because they are making a lot of money by not doing so. Yet some of those same miners and ASIC manufacturers will make a hell of a lot more money by activating SegWit on Litecoin.

It's happening.

I cannot understand certain things here,how come miners are able to make a lot of money by not enabling Segwit and how come the same miners and manufacturers make a hell lot of money by activating it on litecoin,it does not make any sense for me,would you care to explain what you are talking ,and BU cannot be ignored altogether.

[Pattberry]

It all remains yet to be seen. After all, this increase is barely just 2 days old; and in combination with some of the other alts (and some doing crazy) increases recently, it kinda reminds me of the LTC ponzi pumping in mid 2015...

I do not mind if it is a ponzi pump or cycle pump i just want to see the price of litecoin touching its all time high valuation and i do think the price does not do justice to the coin and it is one of the most  stable coin around,so any rally will be a good one for the holders of litecoin and i do  expect them to make some splashes every now and then.

[JessicaG]

It all remains yet to be seen. After all, this increase is barely just 2 days old; and in combination with some of the other alts (and some doing crazy) increases recently, it kinda reminds me of the LTC ponzi pumping in mid 2015...

I do not mind if it is a ponzi pump or cycle pump i just want to see the price of litecoin touching its all time high valuation and i do think the price does not do justice to the coin and it is one of the most  stable coin around,so any rally will be a good one for the holders of litecoin and i do  expect them to make some splashes every now and then.

I don't mind it either what is cause to its price increase, since I'm mining this coin for quite some time 

I appreciate iamnotback analysis's and read them with much interest, yet it's the sometimes crazy increases on several alts lately (the LTC included) that makes me wonder what's going on at a broader perspective... Watching the development as it goes with interest 

[iamnotback]

It crossed 70% now!

About 1951 GH/s, or 70.4% of the network (352 out of the last 500 blocks).

The above is for the blocks in the past 21 hours, so it is slightly forward looking as compared to the 24 hour requirement.

The huge jump in price will be when the Bitcoiners realize that Bitcoin is never going to get scaling, thus they won't be able to transact any more on Bitcoin (will be too expensive) and thus Litecoin will become the transaction coin that everybody is using. This still hasn't sunk into their hard heads yet.

If you don't understand this, then you need to read all my writings and follow all my links. I don't have time to re-explain it all again.

http://reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/631ffe/pools_that_block_litecoin_development/

[rickadone]

The price of LTC wasn’t that low to begin with, to say it was sleeping, not many people can be millionaires with this if it raises to $50. If you got in early like couple cents on a litecoin and yeah you can be a millionaire now but if you were a litecoin guy for like past year, you won’t get couple grand into million with these price surge.

[willope]

Litecoin is going crazy. Target: Find Planet X

[BrainyNetwork]

I'm so glad I bought yesterday at $9.20.

I expected LTC to grow when it was $4 but I chickened out.
I'm ready for a $20 price now 

[fantomy]

$50? i hope your joking, we will never see that price again, only upwards from here is bitcoin and and thats $5000 2020

[iamnotback]

@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).

Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

...

I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.

That chart is clearly indicating that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

Litecoin's price is undergoing the same technology adoption as Bitcoin and all the rest, it is just that the first hump is very volatile (because silver is more volatile than gold for the reasons I have explained). So this means Litecoin's price is going to $100+:

My prediction that BTC would remain range bound until LTC catches up, is so far proving to be true.

The simple reason for this is that the market is not stupid. The market knows that Bitcoin can't ever get any scaling improvements to its protocol. Bitcoin will forever be relegated to small blocks, because it was intended that Bitcoin be the most reliable (i.e. no experimental shit) settlement layer for the power brokers of finance. As the fee per transaction rises to $10 on Bitcoin over this year (and let's guess $100 per transaction by 2019), then most of us will not transact on Bitcoin any more. We will transact on Litecoin. And Blockstream will transfer its efforts to Litecoin, which will give Litecoin legitimacy.

So Bitcoin can't move higher until it is assured that Litecoin will provide the scaling solutions that our ecosystem needs so that blockchains can begin to invade the mainstream world of payments systems and fractional reserve banking. Upthread I explained why Ripple is dogshit, so I expect once it becomes clear that Litecoin will have Lightning Networks coming, then Ripple will collapse. So the smart money should be moving from Ripple to Litecoin.

Note the current jump to $12 looks like it might be overheated and too fast, so I'd be cautious about buying too much too fast. Average in your buys in case we get a dip, but do get some now (nibble) if you don't have any because price can run higher yet. Yet I remain adamant that Litecoin is easily going to exceed $30 and probably $100 before the end of this year, unless somehow SegWit activation is defeated. At the moment SegWit signaling is at 70.8% for those blocks in the last 21 hours. We are very close.

Some myopic people haven't realized that Litecoin needs scaling because it will be receiving all the excess volume from Bitcoin that can't fit in Bitcoin's small blocks, and because the volume will increase exponentially with Lightning Networks enabling private fractional reserve banking and the banks will evangelize Litecoin ecoins to the masses. Litecoin either grabs this opportunity, else Ethereum will take this role with its coming Raiden clone of Lightning Networks. But Blockstream is not going to let that happen. Bobby Lee of BTCC is the brother of Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin. BTCC will push SegWit activation over the 75% threshold with its GPU farm that is mining Ethereum, if need be.

Also myopic people don't realize that block size increases can't scale because due to the equation on orphan rate, orphan rates increases exponentially as block size increases. Exponential worsening is the antithesis of scaling for anyone who understands math and computer science. I also explained why Xthin is no solution to this dilemma.

I was checking yesterdays trading  volumes and 22% of all crypto trading  was Bitcoin trading with fiat. 11% was Litecon trading with fiat.
If you take out bitcoin trading with alts, Bitcoin dont look that big anymore. 
and since talk in this thread was what LTC have that most other alts dont have is exactly this build infrastructure.

LTC would gain traction due to the centralists of the DCG
here is a list of those prominent services in DCG portfolio that have alot of sway of the whole crypt-onomy
-blockstream
-btcc(litecoin inventors brother)
-bitpay
-bitpesa
-changtip
-coinbase(litecoin inventor)
-coindesk (puppetmaster of propaganda owned by DCG)
-gyft
-kraken
-purse
-shapeshift
-xapo

plus many more

imagine if all of them (shh they are already becoming) start being LTC friendly. ETH wont stand a chance with being 'merchants accept' available