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ecliptic
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May 12, 2013, 06:28:56 PM |
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Interesting, that's 452 orders between them right there... There might be a lot of these chips in the wild, i don't think there's anything besides the 10k chips you can buy on their website that would count as an order number either?
If every single one of those is 10k chips. That is 1274.64 Terahash/second
And BTC352,560. I can't comment on their order numbering system as I don't know what it is. It's possible they sold 452 batches, and anyone who is interested in purchasing chips should do their homework before purchasing. Dang thats $35,000,000+ Avalon is racking up some serious cash for being the first company to complete making their Asics. I wonder if some of those orders are from people/companies planning on making a bitcoin mining warehouse to control percents of the network. Whatever it is, difficulty will skyrocket. They have not sold that many batches of chips. https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU is the address they are using to collect purchase money. Currently at 53,117. Quick math puts it at somewhere around 191TH/s worth of chips. Big increase, but nowhere near ROI breaking (for ASICS). There is one order unaccounted for. All others received, recorded, and replied. Batch three will begin once batch two ends. FWIW over the next ~3 months my numbers have, from the current hash rate +191TH/sec - Avalon chips +262TH/sec - ASICMiner (their posted 3 month projection) +Between 0 - 281.25TH/sec - BFL (assuming 75 wafers and 1,100 chips per wafer @ 3.75Ghash/sec per chip) Minimum new hashrate : 606 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~900 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 1200+ TH/sec whats the expected difficulty at 600, 900, 1200 TH/s ? Difficulty is directly proportional to hashrate right? Based on the current hash rate and difficulty roughly 80 million @ 600 TH/sec and about 122 million @ 900 TH/sec |
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Each block is stacked on top of the previous one. Adding another block to the top makes all lower blocks more difficult to remove: there is more "weight" above each block. A transaction in a block 6 blocks deep (6 confirmations) will be very difficult to remove.
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jasinlee
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May 12, 2013, 09:09:22 PM |
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Should still be profitable at that point though.
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ecliptic
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May 12, 2013, 09:48:37 PM |
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Should still be profitable at that point though.
Hardly the easy money or get rich quick that people think it will be though. There is even the possibility that you won't even break even within 1-2 years - all depends on shadow players |
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steamboat (OP)
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May 12, 2013, 10:31:01 PM |
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Interesting, that's 452 orders between them right there... There might be a lot of these chips in the wild, i don't think there's anything besides the 10k chips you can buy on their website that would count as an order number either?
If every single one of those is 10k chips. That is 1274.64 Terahash/second
And BTC352,560. I can't comment on their order numbering system as I don't know what it is. It's possible they sold 452 batches, and anyone who is interested in purchasing chips should do their homework before purchasing. Dang thats $35,000,000+ Avalon is racking up some serious cash for being the first company to complete making their Asics. I wonder if some of those orders are from people/companies planning on making a bitcoin mining warehouse to control percents of the network. Whatever it is, difficulty will skyrocket. They have not sold that many batches of chips. https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU is the address they are using to collect purchase money. Currently at 53,117. Quick math puts it at somewhere around 191TH/s worth of chips. Big increase, but nowhere near ROI breaking (for ASICS). There is one order unaccounted for. All others received, recorded, and replied. Batch three will begin once batch two ends. FWIW over the next ~3 months my numbers have, from the current hash rate +191TH/sec - Avalon chips +262TH/sec - ASICMiner (their posted 3 month projection) +Between 0 - 281.25TH/sec - BFL (assuming 75 wafers and 1,100 chips per wafer @ 3.75Ghash/sec per chip) Minimum new hashrate : 606 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~900 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 1200+ TH/sec Avalon's batch sales will be coming online 1-3 weeks after delivery, at the end of the 3 month timeframe. ASICMiner says they have hash power sitting idle waiting for competition, we shall see. Given BFL's currently difficulties and track record, 281TH/s is highly unlikely. Minimum new hashrate (at time of expected finish date of these chips) : 460 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~660 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 200+ TH/sec. They MAY be able to dump chips if they offer them for nothing, and immediate availability. They would have to release their reference design as well, which is highly unlikely. Given their track record, chip performance, and delays, I wouldn't expect more than 100TH/s from them in the next 3 months. This doesn't mean don't plan for it.
whats the expected difficulty at 600, 900, 1200 TH/s ?
600TH/s- 83,819,031.72 900TH/s- 125,728,547.57 1,200TH/s- 167,638,063.43 Should still be profitable at that point though.
Hardly the easy money or get rich quick that people think it will be though. There is even the possibility that you won't even break even within 1-2 years - all depends on shadow players EVERYONE should be doing their own cost analysis to gauge the risks involved. I will tell you what my difficulty turn-off number is though: 2,463,622,386.37
In other news, Batch 2 officially closed. Batch 3 has now begun. For those who ordered after batch 2 closed, with previous orders in batch 2, I have funded the purchase through my private chips. All others have been placed in batch 3. |
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SebastianJu
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1082
Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile
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May 12, 2013, 10:41:04 PM |
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Interesting, that's 452 orders between them right there... There might be a lot of these chips in the wild, i don't think there's anything besides the 10k chips you can buy on their website that would count as an order number either?
If every single one of those is 10k chips. That is 1274.64 Terahash/second
And BTC352,560. I can't comment on their order numbering system as I don't know what it is. It's possible they sold 452 batches, and anyone who is interested in purchasing chips should do their homework before purchasing. Dang thats $35,000,000+ Avalon is racking up some serious cash for being the first company to complete making their Asics. I wonder if some of those orders are from people/companies planning on making a bitcoin mining warehouse to control percents of the network. Whatever it is, difficulty will skyrocket. They have not sold that many batches of chips. https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU is the address they are using to collect purchase money. Currently at 53,117. Quick math puts it at somewhere around 191TH/s worth of chips. Big increase, but nowhere near ROI breaking (for ASICS). There is one order unaccounted for. All others received, recorded, and replied. Batch three will begin once batch two ends. FWIW over the next ~3 months my numbers have, from the current hash rate +191TH/sec - Avalon chips +262TH/sec - ASICMiner (their posted 3 month projection) +Between 0 - 281.25TH/sec - BFL (assuming 75 wafers and 1,100 chips per wafer @ 3.75Ghash/sec per chip) Minimum new hashrate : 606 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~900 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 1200+ TH/sec Avalon's batch sales will be coming online 1-3 weeks after delivery, at the end of the 3 month timeframe. ASICMiner says they have hash power sitting idle waiting for competition, we shall see. Given BFL's currently difficulties and track record, 281TH/s is highly unlikely. Minimum new hashrate (at time of expected finish date of these chips) : 460 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~660 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 200+ TH/sec. They MAY be able to dump chips if they offer them for nothing, and immediate availability. They would have to release their reference design as well, which is highly unlikely. Given their track record, chip performance, and delays, I wouldn't expect more than 100TH/s from them in the next 3 months. This doesn't mean don't plan for it.
whats the expected difficulty at 600, 900, 1200 TH/s ?
600TH/s- 83,819,031.72 900TH/s- 125,728,547.57 1,200TH/s- 167,638,063.43 Should still be profitable at that point though.
Hardly the easy money or get rich quick that people think it will be though. There is even the possibility that you won't even break even within 1-2 years - all depends on shadow players EVERYONE should be doing their own cost analysis to gauge the risks involved. I will tell you what my difficulty turn-off number is though: 2,463,622,386.37
In other news, Batch 2 officially closed. Batch 3 has now begun. For those who ordered after batch 2 closed, with previous orders in batch 2, I have funded the purchase through my private chips. All others have been placed in batch 3. I really dont believe such hashrates. I mean when in the past went everything like planned with the asic-companies? Thats very rare. Its not possible that BFL ships TH after TH in the next 2 months. Asicminer is limited too. They can only bring Hashpower online when the worktime allows it. 200TH online needs many days. The chips of course will arrive and have to be deployed. I wonder if this will go fast for all participiants. I think in 2 months we will be at 200, max 300 TH. I might be wrong of course. But i think the plans of the past nearly never played out. Why should this change now suddenly? |
Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
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steamboat (OP)
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May 13, 2013, 04:35:14 AM |
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Interesting, that's 452 orders between them right there... There might be a lot of these chips in the wild, i don't think there's anything besides the 10k chips you can buy on their website that would count as an order number either?
If every single one of those is 10k chips. That is 1274.64 Terahash/second
And BTC352,560. I can't comment on their order numbering system as I don't know what it is. It's possible they sold 452 batches, and anyone who is interested in purchasing chips should do their homework before purchasing. Dang thats $35,000,000+ Avalon is racking up some serious cash for being the first company to complete making their Asics. I wonder if some of those orders are from people/companies planning on making a bitcoin mining warehouse to control percents of the network. Whatever it is, difficulty will skyrocket. They have not sold that many batches of chips. https://blockchain.info/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU is the address they are using to collect purchase money. Currently at 53,117. Quick math puts it at somewhere around 191TH/s worth of chips. Big increase, but nowhere near ROI breaking (for ASICS). There is one order unaccounted for. All others received, recorded, and replied. Batch three will begin once batch two ends. FWIW over the next ~3 months my numbers have, from the current hash rate +191TH/sec - Avalon chips +262TH/sec - ASICMiner (their posted 3 month projection) +Between 0 - 281.25TH/sec - BFL (assuming 75 wafers and 1,100 chips per wafer @ 3.75Ghash/sec per chip) Minimum new hashrate : 606 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~900 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 1200+ TH/sec Avalon's batch sales will be coming online 1-3 weeks after delivery, at the end of the 3 month timeframe. ASICMiner says they have hash power sitting idle waiting for competition, we shall see. Given BFL's currently difficulties and track record, 281TH/s is highly unlikely. Minimum new hashrate (at time of expected finish date of these chips) : 460 TH/sec Conservative upper bound new hashrate : ~660 TH/sec BFL has more wafers than orders and decides to flood the market : 200+ TH/sec. They MAY be able to dump chips if they offer them for nothing, and immediate availability. They would have to release their reference design as well, which is highly unlikely. Given their track record, chip performance, and delays, I wouldn't expect more than 100TH/s from them in the next 3 months. This doesn't mean don't plan for it.
whats the expected difficulty at 600, 900, 1200 TH/s ?
600TH/s- 83,819,031.72 900TH/s- 125,728,547.57 1,200TH/s- 167,638,063.43 Should still be profitable at that point though.
Hardly the easy money or get rich quick that people think it will be though. There is even the possibility that you won't even break even within 1-2 years - all depends on shadow players EVERYONE should be doing their own cost analysis to gauge the risks involved. I will tell you what my difficulty turn-off number is though: 2,463,622,386.37
In other news, Batch 2 officially closed. Batch 3 has now begun. For those who ordered after batch 2 closed, with previous orders in batch 2, I have funded the purchase through my private chips. All others have been placed in batch 3. I really dont believe such hashrates. I mean when in the past went everything like planned with the asic-companies? Thats very rare. Its not possible that BFL ships TH after TH in the next 2 months. Asicminer is limited too. They can only bring Hashpower online when the worktime allows it. 200TH online needs many days. The chips of course will arrive and have to be deployed. I wonder if this will go fast for all participiants. I think in 2 months we will be at 200, max 300 TH. I might be wrong of course. But i think the plans of the past nearly never played out. Why should this change now suddenly? I agree with your conclusions, and have reached a similar one myself. I am running ROI analysis on what is likely, what is possible, what is improbable, and what is likely impossible. I do not want to offer a strong position on estimates, though. |
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Smiley_01
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 19
Merit: 0
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May 13, 2013, 08:25:27 PM |
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Strange....first 2 batches went through quickly, 3rd completely frozen since nearly a day - did I miss something ?
Any thoughts ?
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mgio
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May 13, 2013, 08:45:57 PM |
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Strange....first 2 batches went through quickly, 3rd completely frozen since nearly a day - did I miss something ?
Any thoughts ?
Maybe because it's a Monday. I hope it gets going. I'm in for 256 chips, just have to wait till I get home to my bitcoin wallet. |
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jasinlee
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May 13, 2013, 08:51:35 PM |
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Steamboat needs to sleep sometimes  |
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mjmvisser
Newbie
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Activity: 58
Merit: 0
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May 14, 2013, 03:26:21 AM |
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jasinlee
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May 14, 2013, 04:55:40 AM |
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Will be nice to see when the first ones arrive.
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eroxors
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
Think. Positive. Thoughts.
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May 14, 2013, 05:36:46 AM |
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So expensive. I hope steamboat can find a cheaper solution. A posted board price may spur batch 3 puchasing since we don't know how much to set aside. I have a feeling we are in good hands.  Any word on sample chip arrival from batch 1? |
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SteveB
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May 14, 2013, 05:44:15 AM |
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Way too expensive!  TerraHash looks good, but not sure if legit. |
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steamboat (OP)
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May 14, 2013, 06:52:34 AM |
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So expensive. I hope steamboat can find a cheaper solution. A posted board price may spur batch 3 puchasing since we don't know how much to set aside. I have a feeling we are in good hands. Any word on sample chip arrival from batch 1? Yes, a cheaper solution is the goal. Due to the logistics of batch orders "trickling" in, purchase sizes are not going to be optimal, which is going to increase the price. Sample chips are not scheduled to ship until June 1, and Avalon has not yet released additional information. I apologize for the lack of forum presence over the past two days. Things are moving quickly on my side and I'm having to switch gears from a previous project I was working on to this. More information will be available Wednesday. |
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sensei
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May 14, 2013, 12:14:48 PM |
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The costs add up. If you see, burnin's board is at about the same price point.
Setting up to build about 500 of burnin's or bkkcoins K16 board will set anyone back about $10,000 in parts (not including ASICs or the assembly house charge). This is quite a bit of money to lay out.
The K16 board will cost anyone about $65 if they want to go to Digikey and Mouser to buy all the parts themselves. Good luck soldering in those 325+ parts.
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LiveJay
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 58
Merit: 0
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May 14, 2013, 03:46:12 PM |
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I missed the boat on the first two batches waiting for money to transfer. What happens now if batch three doesn't take off? If I order 64 chips and it doesn't fill up will I just get a refund? Or will there be enough surplus in another batch to cover the orders on this one? Is there a time limit for this batch to close?
I'm just trying to understand the risks of tying up coins in this transaction.
Thanks,
-Jay
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funkmunk30
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
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May 14, 2013, 03:56:55 PM |
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The K16 board will cost anyone about $65 if they want to go to Digikey and Mouser to buy all the parts themselves. Good luck soldering in those 325+ parts.
Its doable for anyone with 1. experience and 2. Patience I don't think it would be much for someone to build one or to, but if you are building 20, 30, 40+ Id except you have the sense and cash to pay for a assembly company to do it for you. |
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steamboat (OP)
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May 14, 2013, 05:40:47 PM |
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I missed the boat on the first two batches waiting for money to transfer. What happens now if batch three doesn't take off? If I order 64 chips and it doesn't fill up will I just get a refund? Or will there be enough surplus in another batch to cover the orders on this one? Is there a time limit for this batch to close?
I'm just trying to understand the risks of tying up coins in this transaction.
Thanks,
-Jay
In the event Batch three is not ordered, a refund will be issued. Batch one and two chips are accounted for. If this changes, there may be a possibility of purchasing chips from batch one or two. There currently is no time limit, though this may change. |
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ionstorm
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May 14, 2013, 07:16:18 PM |
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i hope we can make assembly as cheap as possible, steamboat, maybe we should soon start a groupbuy for the components like psu's + cases and an estimated cost on how much the assembled boards will cost + labor included. I recommend that we do it cheap only for the fact that a month or two down the line there may be other competitors that could rival the price.
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TomKeddie
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May 14, 2013, 10:56:07 PM |
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"I am in the process of speaking with US based manufacturers to build and assemble miners based off open source designs. Pricing will be available closer to the ship date, and will depend on the amount of chips/boards built. I will keep this thread updated with developments as they occur. This is by no means finalized. While likely a solution will be developed prior to chip delivery, and I am making every effort to do so, I do not guarantee anything."
Any updates to this FAQ? Seems like there are lots of groups preparing assembly plans but all based on only a few designs.
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